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The new sanctions, which the UN
imposed June 9th, allowed UN nations to inspect ships headed for Iranian
ports, to check for contraband, and seize it if found. The Iranians
have threatened military retaliation against any inspection attempts.
Iran is in a very weak position militarily, although official Iranian
announcements would have you think otherwise. But decades of sanctions,
and plenty of evidence (from cell phone
cameras, satellite photos and testimony of Iranian military personnel
who left the country), show that Iran has little real military
capability (except against its own citizens). If Iran tried to close the
Straits, there would be a fight between the modern forces of the West
and the Arab Gulf states, and Iran. While the Iranians can be
troublesome (especially with naval mines and land-based anti-ship
missiles) at sea, Western navies have trained and equipped themselves to
deal with whatever the Iranians can do. While there could be come
temporary surprises, long term the Iranians are toast, and under
blockade, plus their armed forces would be continually hammered by
superior aircraft and missiles. For over two decades, the Iranians have
diligently avioded putting the... >>>