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MELBOURNE
– Is Iran really hell-bent on becoming a nuclear-armed state? Or will
it settle for nuclear capability, able to make weapons but choosing not
to? Does the difference matter?

Few international questions
involve higher stakes than these. An immediate concern, if deep
pessimism about Iran’s intentions prevails, is a preventive Israeli
strike, leading to another major Middle East war – with catastrophic
consequences for the global economy likely.

No one should
underestimate the difficulty of assessing Iran’s real intentions. Mixed
signals from competing power centers don’t help; nor does the recurring
contrast between Iranian officials’ usually-strident public
pronouncements and often-moderate private discourse. Pessimists and
skeptics have plenty to point to in Iran’s long record of obstruction
and brinkmanship in addressing legitimate international concerns about
its nuclear programs.

That said, too many policymakers and
commentators have rushed to judgment, insisting that Iran is irrevocably
determined to build nuclear weapons, or that it wants a break-out
capability that is just as dangerous.

In fact, there is good
reason to believe that the situation is less alarming and more
containable than this. While a negotiated settlement acceptable to both
Iran and the rest of the international community would be a hug... >>>