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First and foremost, nuclear capable does not mean nuclear armed. A nuclear capable state possesses the technical expertise and materials to move quickly to create a weapon -- there are forty such states now. It is possible, were Iran to fully cooperate with the IAEA, for it to join the club without violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran's nuclear program is supported across the political spectrum and is part and parcel of both conservative and reformist rhetoric. Iran wants to be a heavy-weight regional player and deter a conventional military attack -- nuclear capability would grant it this. The problem is, as IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano has repeatedly said, they're not cooperating with inspectors. Unfortunately, the sticks the Obama administration has armed themselves with aren't doing the trick.

With China and Japan still willing to buy Iranian oil and expanded business ventures in Latin America, Iran is not going to be pushed into a corner by U.S.-led economic pressure. In 2010, the World Bank ranked Iran's economy as the eighteenth largest in terms of purchasing power parity and it's growing. While Congress is itching to sanction Iran's Central Bank, the biggest consumers of Iranian oil would need to sign on to the initiative at the expense of their own economic well-being for it to have any real impact.