Iran Analysis: The Embassy Attack --- "A Serious Mis-Calculation" by the Regime
Enduring America / Scott Lucas
01-Dec-2011 (7 comments)

Whatever the wisdom or folly of Washington's approach, it has pursued a determined line in the last month --- cast public blame on Tehran and step up sanctions, all in co-ordination with European partners, Canada, and other countries. Today the European Union will consider the widest sanctions in its history upon Iran, including a cut-off of oil imports --- Britain has declared, in the light of Tuesday's events,  that it will be calling for those measures, and France and Italy are signalling that they are on-board.

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FG

Time for a Maximum Response

by FG on Thu Dec 01, 2011 08:37 AM PST

This is a good time to recall Hitler's sneer after Munich about democracies led by gutless "worms."   TO judge by the regime's recent attack on the British embassy, Khamenei and his circle have come to the same conclusion.  We all know Hitler's fate.  Leaders of western democracies will never have a better time for the strongest possible "message sending" of their own to an aggressive totalitarian state--a maximum response short of war (totally unnecessary). 

The regime has become so arrogant and lives in such a fantasyland  that it has come to believe it can crap on foreign nations as easily as it craps on its own disarmed population.   Khamenei forgets that foreign nations are not so impotent and don't take well to intimidation or aggression.

Potential repercussions:

 

WESTERN PERCEPTIONS: The attack on the British Embassy wasn't just an attack on Britain's embassy.  Implicitly it was an attack on all western embassies--a message that  "We can do this to any of you at any time we please and we have no scruples about it."   We'll see about that.


DIPLOMATIC CONSEQUENCE: British diplomats may not be the only ones to leave Iran and London might not be  the only place Iranian diplomats get the boot.

 

STRONGER SANCTIONS/ LESS WAVERERS?: . Iran knew the EU had a meeting on sanctions scheduled, so what better way to encourage the strongest possible sanctions, including a oil cutoff and measures against Iran's Central Bank.   Sure, it involves short run cost to the West BUT how long would it be necessary given Item #5 below?

 

REGIME PROPAGANDA UNDERMINED: The strategy of regimes hit by heavy sanctions is to blame the outsider.  When the regime's own aggression led to such sanctions, that will be a a hard sell.

 

THE FINAL STRAW FOR IRANIANS?  Considering massive popular discontent, even hatred, for this regime, its militia, and security force generals prior to the Embassy attack, the above measures are like to precipitate the outbreak that brings down the regime.   The stupidity of the embassy attack and its consequences may even cause defections on the fringe by demoralized long-time supporters.

 

WHAT HARMS IRANIAN PEOPLE MOST NOW?: For Iranians life under mullah rule now resembles life in France under Nazi occupiers or life in Poland under Soviet rule--things than must go.  It's worth a bit of suffering to get out from under.  Of course, the strongest possible sanctions will cause suffering among the Iranian people and for the western public.  But who can survive it longer?   Pass the above sanctions and this regime won't last a year.   Guaranteed!    



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Maryam Hojjat

FG, Thanks for

by Maryam Hojjat on Fri Dec 02, 2011 01:38 AM PST

your insight& posting this article.


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FG

Tehran Bureau has an

by FG on Thu Dec 01, 2011 05:00 PM PST

Tehran Bureau has an interesing look at the Embassy takeover.  

The article focuses particularly on how the regime uses anti-colonialism and the promotion of anti-western xenophobia to enable and legitimatize its abuse---and even some of those who oppose anti-mullah rule fall for the trick.

//www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/11/opinion-anti-imperialism-is-dead.html


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FG

Would Khamenei assassinate Mahmoud?

by FG on Thu Dec 01, 2011 11:42 AM PST

We know Khamenei hasn't a moral bone in his body.  He'll add up the
pluses and minuses and decide. The catch is that he's done a lousy job
of it lately.

Some analysts describe Khamenei as a "cautious and clever," a master
manipulator. Maybe so when the atmosphere was more conducive.  Lately
the Big Turban resembles a gambling addict who tries to recover losses
by tripling his bets.  All gamblers win sometimes  but those who don't
know when to quit must lose everything in the end.

Below is my take on "The Five Worst Decisions" made recently by the
Supreme Gambler.  In each case I get the impression Khamenei greatly
underestimated the potential minuses if a given decision went awry.

Khamenei has assasinated perceived enemies before so why not now? When
he can't think of any other way out of a jam, the Holy One tends to turn
to whatever worked in days past.  He too easily dismisses changed
attitudes and atmospheres before moving his pawns.

Is Ahmadinejad too prominent to assassinate?  One alleged victim of the
Supreme Leader's death squads was light years more charismatic, popular
and attractive that either Ahmadinejad or Khamenei.  This was someone
Khamenei could hardly throw into Evin or place under house arrest
without creationg a scandal--Khoumeini's own son whose non-stop
criticism of Khamenei's totalitarian tendencies look so prescient now.

Khamenei, totally uncharismatic and religiously unqualified for his
post, had yet to consolidate power. He still lived in the shadow of The
Founder.  The death squad official believed to have carried it out the
assassination suffered a convenient "heart attack" afterward just like
Khoumeini's son or a certain prison doctor more recently.

In retrospect Khamenei always was a gambler.  What's changed are the
odds.  Gambling was easy when most Iranians saw the mullahs as Good
Guys, incapable of horrific behavior.  From the begining of clerical
rule abundant evidence to the contrary was available (the Abadan fire
and the acid attacks on women) but people didn't want to believe.  Now
they do.

THE NOT-SO-CLEVER LEADER: GAMBLES THAT BACKFIRE

1. CHOOSING A USEFUL ALLY: The decision, prior to the 2009 election, to
ally himself with a similarly ambitious and unscrupulous figure
(Mahmoud) to suppress widespead demands for reforms, human rights and
more democrach.

2. RIGGING THE ELECTION:  Khamenei thought no one would notice, that
regime denials would be widely accepted and that any public reaction
would be minimal

3. THE DECISION TO CRACK DOWN BRUTALLY: It totally destroyed, beyond repair, any political legitimacy Khamenei onec had.

4. THE WASHINGTON, D.C PLOT--Some observers suggested the regime would
never make such a boneheaded, risky move.  Do you still think so after
what we saw in the past week.   (The same goes for the assasination of
Khoumeini's son.   Is it still unlikely?   Would you believe now what
people the claim that people were able to accept then based on
Khamenei's word: that this healthy young man have a heart attack in his
prime?)

5. THE BRITISH EMBASSY TAKEOVER

ASSASSINATE MAHMOUD: A GAMBLE WORTH TAKING?

In one stroke it would eliminate a major threat and leave the faction in
disarray. The regime's subsequate propanda is so predictable, so I see
no need to examine it here.  Ditto, for the untimely death of any
assassin.

On the other hand, the assassination would certainly
alienate Mahmoud's followers who won't swallow the regime's claims.  If a
they erupt immediately, who else will join in?  If not, the mullahs
domestic base is smaller than ever.  The opposition's numbers increase
substantial and include people with security force contacts, useful
skills in mischief making and less likely to put up with beatings
without responding in kind.


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vildemose

 Ofcom reverses decision

by vildemose on Thu Dec 01, 2011 09:19 AM PST

 Ofcom reverses decision to revoke licence of Iran's Press TV

Foreign Office denies government intervened in decision to switch penalty to £100,000 fine as tensions rose with republic

 

//www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/nov/30/ofcom-iran-press-tv

If they are  expelling Iranian diplomats, why aren’t they expelling PressTV?

 

 

 

 

"It is the chain of communicat­ion, not the means of production­, that determines a social process."

-- Robert Anton Wilson


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vildemose

 Khamenie wants

by vildemose on Thu Dec 01, 2011 09:11 AM PST

 Khamenie wants war:

 

//tinyurl.com/7gk6cro

 

 

"It is the chain of communicat­ion, not the means of production­, that determines a social process."

-- Robert Anton Wilson


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FG

JUST DO IT! Inside Khamenei's mind on eve of attack

by FG on Thu Dec 01, 2011 09:03 AM PST

We're in trouble with no end in sight unless I do something radical.

Censorship isn't concealing our crimes.  The economy keeps going in one
direction only.  No one believes our propaganda anymore.  The people hate me and the mullahs around me.  Most of those ungrateful, Satan-inspired scumbags want democracy but know better than to waste time voting anymore. At least they learned that lesson.

If hardly anyone loves us now, the only voters likely to show up in large numbers are Ahmadinejad supporters.  He is looting the banks and using the stolen money to offer a ton of bribes once again. There has to be a solution.  

I got it!  I'll send out the usual thugs to seize a western embassy.  It worked before so it will work now.  Close my eyes and I can just see all the people rallying around us, just as they did then.  We need to broadcast the glorious  takeover on television.  If we do, tens of thousands will show.   Let people in the West and their government watch the broadcasts and feel the humiliation.   Let's do it!

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This is a guy who also dreams that Iranians will tolerate his harsh rule, the economic incompetence and his outright thievery by regime groups endlessly, that Iranian security forces won't suffer defections like those in Syria, that the West will be cowed...etc.


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