Misc

Existentialist indeed ...

Sorry I just got a nervous laugh ... LOL

Look at these Zionists

In the Arab media Aljazireh they talk so soft and as if they are not warmongers! What a BS on Zionist part. Man they are so MOOOOZY

IRAN GET THE BOMB ASAP...PLEASE

Aljazeera is a Great Moderator (& Thoughts on the Long Term)

It is an excellent and intelligent TV channel that does not hesitate to ask difficult questions. The lady is really correct in her analysis. The Jewish analyst doesn't say anything new that we don't know and expresses the Israelian neo con point of view. The irony is that his last observation is that Iranians will never bomb Israel with an Atom Bomb. So that demolishes everything he said before regarding an Iranian threat. Israel should not be as worried. If the balance of powers in this crisis is in favor of Iran and the anti war mouvement on the otherhand a diplomatic victory of Ahmadinejad would be short lived. He will not be regarded as Iran's Mossadegh, contrary to the assessments of analysts like Mrs. Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich here:

//iranian.com/main/2008/patriots-who-want-their-country-destroyed

The Iranian regime even with nuclear capacity will have to face concrete interior problems such as its already disastrous economic record and the ever raising demands for freedom of expression and for Human Rights. Iranian Women and youth who constitute the majority of the population know the likes of Ahmadinejad and despise his sermons and his recurrent religious rhetoric like seeing a halo of light at the United Nations or that even a 16 year old girl was able to create nucleare energy in her kitchen. There is within the Iranian leadership and political society, pragmatists with a different agenda. We may like or dislike them but they will definitively have to compromise with the International community to give further proof of their own commitment to world peace and good relations with Israel and America. That can pave the road to the likes of Khatami or any other reformist who will try and appease the political atmosphere in Iran and again sell us the "Islamic Republic with a smiling face". ONLY THIS TIME contrary to 1997/8 he will have to DELIVER Promises and hold them. THAT Will be the IRI's Achilles Heal.

Will Khatami or a Khatami BIS ( Style Man OON Sharif Emamiyeh Peesh Neestam):

1) Become an Iranian Gorbatchev and reform the IRI into some hybrid form of democracy only to lead to an implosion of the Islamic State ?

Or

2) Be the next Generalsimo Franco ( but with a turban and crew cut) and come up with a last resort in an attempt of national reconciliation: Restore the Pahlavi Dynasty ( No need to call me a dreamer, I already know I am ;0)) as a Constitutional Monarchy ? (something which indeed appears Far-Stretched but on which Reza Pahlavi and his followers have to ponder if they want to play a constructive role of "give and take" if ever we face similar conditions as in 1997/8 of general appeasement and that is in their mild support for reforms in the Islamic Republic.

And Boy That would REALLY be when the Fun begins in the tug of war between IRI reformists and an eventual  Large Republican-Monarchist Coalition between the Diaspora Iranians and Iranians inside who simply want Change much more than just reform. Or another option for him would be to undertake democratic reforms by promising a step by step transition towards a secular republican form of government which will allow a seperation of State and Religion and ultimately a secular democratic republic. In both cases he will be faced with inner contradictions and a duality between pragmatists and traditionalists in trying make the two work hand in hand. Something he failed to do during his previous mandate when he was becoming known as the Reformist President.

I refer you to the interesting dialogue between Khatami and former Iranian education minister under the Shah of Iran ( therefore a monarchist )and Zoroastrian scholar Dr. Farhang Mehr ( although Dr. Mehr was critisized by more hardline monarchists and not necessarily Zoroastrian who refused a constructive dialogue with Khatami ).

Listen to this civilized dialogue with opposite views that dates from the 1998 I believe during Khatami's visit to Boston University.

So from a historical and institutional point of view Khatami or anyohther so called moderate President will have to propose a vision of reform of the IRI while guaranteeing civil peace during the transition it hopes to achieve and how it would benefit Iran more than a truly Constitutional Monarchy or Secular Democratic Republic. This is again the Week point on which the opposition can again pull the strings in favor of one or another of the two most widely known forms of governments today in Europe: Republic ( also valid in America) or Constitutional Monarchy ( the issue of which will be brought up one way or another given that allowing the return to Iran of exiles will trigger off questions such as : Why not all exiles including political activists outside Iran: Monarchists, MKO, leftists etc in an aim of national reconciliation under the new reformed IRI ) For Khatami or anyother reformist Iranian politician ( of the religious oligarchy or not ) will have to undertake a strategy as old as Time and that is divide in order to rule. That is where the regime's Achilles Heal resides: DISCONTENT AND RISING CLAIMS. Thus voices of discontent will denounce the hypocrisy of the IRI because none of the opposition TV's or groups will wish to compromise with the refromed regime and its pragmatists and people will have to compare between what Khatami CAN deliver pragmatically and WHAT the people will be demanding more and more that is Freedom of Expression. Knowing our iranian midset of always asking for more ( but who doesn't ? The Russians did under Gorbatchev so did the Poles during the Solidarnosc Mouvement in Poland with the help of Lech Walesa, the West and the Pope by encouraging peaceful civil opposition ). The rising expectations would also be encouraged by anyone who opposes the nature of the regime anyhow including the Opposition TV's ( whether they are Trashy or Not, the often demagogic vocabulary will only reflect what all governments which try to reform do and that is : Insatisfaction. You can do whatever in your hands to tame a stubborn Parrot not to sing it will always sing back )  rising expectations would be ( all the more that the Opposition TV will be doing all their propaganda work anyhow asking for faster and faster reforms through its programs whether we like their often trashy, or unfair judgments on an eventual IRI reform that would have to be undertook) so the dynamics of a tug of war between the leadership and the forces of progress and change will occur like in all governments faced with Revolution or Elections.

An observation of the war of words in the American election between Obama supporters and MacCain supporters shows how far critics can go and hurt the candidates when the stakes are high.

That is why I personally think that Iran's civil society that is EVERYONE: Intellectuals, politicians, artists, unionists etc will find common ground in demanding gradual or rapid change. The experience in Russia proved that slow change was not possible given the high level of discontent towards the communist regime. It is precisely the Slow pace of change and the fact that Gorbatchev refused to be called anything but a communist ( despite being clothed in Armani suits) that brought about Boris Yeltsin into the political scene. In the case of Iran, unlike the Soviet Union, the state of discontent does not hit Everyone like it did in the Soviet Regime crippled by an obsolete economic infrastructure that put everyone at the same level. In Iran the regime keeps playing the dual game of dividing and ruling. Satsifying one group and dissatisfying another group.

That is why we should NOT give in "too easily" to any of the regime's easy Lures and calls for patience in its reforms if ever we see the advent of a 2nd Khatami Presidential Term. We need to stand firm and encourage when it suits us  (by that I mean the Iranian Civil Society at Large) and not when it suits them ( The Goverment and moderate calls for Reform).

Why ? Well lets take the case of Nuclear Military Capability ( if ever that possibility is raised even theoratically) Who has the last word on the Red Button ? Khameni or Ahmadinejad ? Both perpsectives are Scary. The answer would be less the case if we were certain of the democratic functionality of the IRI that would at least answer this pragmatic concern. Do you really see a President who see's halo's in the Sky as possibly having that priority ?

Its Never late to watch Abbas Milani's interesting lecture below:

That is where we could hope for an "Implosion" of the system instead of an explosion with collateral damages. It could crumble under the forces of democratic progess just like the monarchy did in 1979 ( except that then no one truly understood the dynamics of democracy nor was the revolutionary's agenda one to establish a truly democratic state but a religious theorcacy). This may even be achieved without violence because pragmaticism for those reformists who want to survive may take over.

Will that Actually occur as I outline it here ? I am not sure that this can happen given the current state of affairs and the sad realities of an unimaginative not to say inexistent opposition to the IRI.

However I do think that the Polish Example of SOLIDARNOSC could indeed be a positive and constuctive inspiration to the evergrowing Iranian Civil Society in the Making and supported in that by the Diaspora. 

An Iranian Solidarnosc would require however a large coalition of all political and social aspirations or even parties. When we look at the Diaspora we immediately think of the Monarchists and Nationalists, leftists, rightist or Mossadeghi's comming together by setting aside their differences. In the case of Iran one would think of the unionists and the intelligenstia. 

The Major Difference between Solidarnosc and a Political Party is that it was first and foremost an intellectual and social mouvement and not a Party until the regime of Jaruzelski of course collapsed and Poland was set Free of Russian domination and became a democratic society. That led to the creation of Solidarnosc as an Official grass root party but also other parties. And since it did not have just one figure head but several from Lech Walesa to Geremek it was never a centralized party like lets say the communist party. That is one of the reason's why it rallied not only the Western Goverments be them Socialists ( Mitterand in France) or Right Wing ( Like Thatcher in the UK and Reagan in the US).

If the future American administration of Obama ( which in my opinion would be preferable unless further notice) for instance would come to power, it will try to open negotiations with Iran's theocracy. It is all the more important for the US administration to know it should also take into account the reality of a civil society in the making in the Iranian social, political and intellectual landscape. That negotiating with Tehran should not set a close eye on OUR Legitimate Aspirations only to satisfy the Political Agenda and Ultimatums of the Islamic Regime of Iran. That is why to me at least speaking of purely "unconditional" talks with Iran seems a little obscure if not naive. I consider that one of the conditions that should be put on the table during these negotiations would be to ask Iran to give voice to Iran's civil society in an open debate: Not just the Parliament, and governmental poles but to allow foreign news agencies for instance in perfect cooperation with Iranian news agencies to do regular poles on what is the public opinion in Iran regarding future reforms if they are to take place or on the evolution of the nucleare development policy etc ... Opening the Press to critics just as Gorbatchev did should be one of these pre- conditions.  

I don't know if what I wrote here is clear or if it makes sense but I think it is worth giving it a thought regardless of where we all stand politically or ideologically speaking to put it straight. Look forward to comments even if I may not answer them because I do not claim to have the answers.

"Je Pense Donc Je Suis" -René Descartes (1596-1650) 

SPEED UP TO THE BOMB...

MOST OF IRANIAN ARE NOT HAPPY WITH ISLAMIC REPUBLIC, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY THEY HAVE ALL THE RIGHTS TO RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT.

SO IRANIANS MUST SPEED UP TO MAKE THE BOMB AND GET OVER ALL THESE NUCLEAR DISPUTES...

Israel is no mach for Iran.

And I know they are not as stupid as the media portraits them.If you get along with Iran you can survive in Middle East and if you don't get along with Iran you don't survive in Middle East.Iranian are very smart,Very rich,strategically located,very united,very brave and dog gone it they are GOOD LOOKING.Peace on earth     Shah Hossein

‫حالا ببینیم عزراییل چه میکند

‫ملاها میخوان توانایی ساخت بمب را داشته باشند. این ضمانت اینو بهشون میده که در موقعه خطر، با این ظرفیت، امکان دفاع از خود را دارند. ولی، این شیطان گولزنا، برای در امان موندن از تحریمهای بین الملی که کره شمالی رو از پا در اورد دست به این کارنخواهند زد.