At first I was writing a comment in response to this blog The path and Obstacles to Freedom then I decided to turn it into a blog. Comparing the “revolutions” in Libya and Syria to Iran is simply comparing apples and oranges. For one thing there is plenty of foreign interventions in both countries with direct NATO involvement in Libya and arms smuggling into Syria for the opposition from bordering Iraq and Jordan.
In Syria there is the Assad’s 12% Alawitte religious minority ruling party that is ruling with a bloody military crackdown of the 74% Sunni majority with other minorities watching in horror what could happen to them if the Sunni majority comes to power. The Sunni majority however is trying to build alliances with other minorities to topple Assad and gaining international recognition.
As much as Islamic Republic resorted to iron fist and crackdown of the people they did not use tanks in the streets. They did not kill 2000 people. There was no Sunni majority (74% of Syria’s population of 22 million) being specifically targeted.
People are seeing just the beginning and cheering “revolutions”! Like when George Bush landed on the aircraft carrier and announced “Mission Accomplished” in 2003! Soon thereafter Iraq exploded into sectarian violence that has continued to date.
Iran’s green movement started the uprisings that we see in the Arab world today. Iranians will finish what they started and they’re far more experienced and advanced in “revolutions”, been there done that. Even the regime knows what not to do to further enrage an already angry population that is reeling from harsh economic conditions with high inflation and rampant unemployment.
Islamic Republic is teetering with economic disaster and it’s own demise. Their nearly all domestic based economy is reaching low demand and high supplies with bleak future. International sanctions is hitting home with more on the horizon forcing officials to address it. The obvious problems have reached the “Supreme Leader” where he is constantly “advising” the authorities to “plan” for “low” unemployment and “create” more jobs! The subsidy reform has been one sided and the business owners have not seen their share of subsidies that they were promised and was part of the subsidy reform, partly because the regime can only take so much from Paul to pay the Peter!
Bottom line, hold your horse Islamic Republic will not last forever. Forever can mean 40 years for Qaddafi or what 10 years for Bashar Assad? They had much smaller populations than Iran, 6 million for Libya, and oil revenues and no doubt they bagged most of oil revenues for themselves but they’re meeting their destiny which is pretty brutal. Be happy for them and hope their countries will not fall into chaos. Our time will come too, it has already come.
Photo caption: The “beach” by the old Hyatt Hotel (now Parsian) near Namak Abrood by the Caspian. Behind you is the Hotel in the picture here. Before the revolution there was a beach but notice now that the beach is gone! Bascially they don’t want people to have any “fun”.
