All indications are that Bush has given a green light to an attack on the training camps in Iran that are operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
For the past several weeks the Pentagon has rolled out a justification for the upcoming attack through allegations that have yet to be supported by any solid evidence.
Let’s skip over the issue of if the Pentagon is right or if all this is just another case of aluminum tubes or yellowcake or being 45 minutes away from witnessing a mushroom cloud over some American city. Let’s instead jump to the immediate moment after the camps have been bombed.
The question is; how will Iran respond?
The options at Iran’s disposal are many. They range from firing Sunburn missiles at the American aircraft carries in the Persian Gulf to sending a massive volley of missiles into the Green Zone.
How Iran retaliates will most likely escalate into a more punishing response from the United States and this will cause another forceful retaliation from Iran, with the end result being full scale war.
One possible response to the camps being bombed, and which may not trigger an escalating response from the Americans, is that Iran cuts off fuel supplies to the American military without the loss of any life. Without fuel the American war machine in Iraq will come to a grinding halt and will quickly become a sitting duck.
The American military uses more oil than the nation of Sweden and any disruption in supplies will create vulnerabilities that will be a nightmare for Pentagon logisticians.
If American war planners think Iran will not respond to the camps being bombed they are mistaken. Most likely the Pentagon will wait to see how Iran responds and will calibrate its response to how Iran reacts. Fortunately Ahmadinejad is not Iran’s commander in chief.
If only there was a fast forward button and tomorrow was the last day Bush was President, and McCain did not get elected, and Ahmadinejad did not get a second term, and somebody invented a gadget that made so much energy that oil became worthless. In the meantime I think I’ll go practice “Duck and Cover” and stay as far as away from any and all training camps.
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we are screwed
by hadron (not verified) on Fri May 16, 2008 10:23 PM PDTThey already shot that guy how invented the gadget that would make oil worthless and burned down his house, but not until they stole his invention to use in new more effective devices for killing the innocent. Don't kid yourself they have tanks that run on electricty. Bush is out to destroy Iran and I fear deeply for the people that get in his way. Forget about bravery and national pride and run like hell for your lives because the greed that drives this monster is bigger than any president, government, or spiritual leader that the world has ever known.
Salar look at this
by Anonymous21 (not verified) on Wed May 14, 2008 02:02 PM PDTThis is hte lateset comment by the Commmonder of the BRAVE SEPAHE PASDARAN:
فرمانده کل سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی با اشاره به هشت سال دفاع مقدس گفت: دفاع مقدس در مقوله تهديد نظامی، انقلاب را بيمه کرد و امروز مقابله با تهديد نظامی از مرزهای ايران فراتر رفته و امنيت دفاعی ايران در مقابله با تهاجمات خارجی در خارج از مرزهای ايران اتفاق می افتد.
These guys are just repeating the same words to propate fear in the Western countries.
Dear Salar
by Anonymous21 (not verified) on Wed May 14, 2008 10:01 AM PDTGreat article. I would like to reiterate one of your lines and expand it. "The regime will just disappear with the first bomb, they know it, we all know it." That is exactly why, all of a sudden, IRI is paying so much to these one-night military analysts to intimidate the Western Media with the GREAT BRAVE SEPAH revenge to any possible US attack on IRI. They have funny nicknames too.
Global Deployments
by Empire (not verified) on Wed May 14, 2008 08:49 AM PDTPentagon is the largest oil consumer in the US. That is why oil is called the National Security issue in the US. The total military population is about 2.5 million in a country with 265 million people. The US operates/ controls between 700 and 800 military bases Worldwide.
The forces of the US military (368,900 soldiers) are located in nearly 130 countries around the world performing combat operations, peacekeeping, training with foreign militaries. Some of them have existed for nearly 50 years, as in Japan, Germany, and South Korea, while other deployments have more recent origins such as the current occupation of Iraq. As of January 2005, there are some 250,000 soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines, and Coast Guardsmen deployed in support of combat, peacekeeping, and deterrence operations. This figure does not include those forces normally present in Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom or Japan unless bases at those locations are actively supporting a combat operation.
//www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/global-...
The US Army is not a national army; it is a global one, dividing the Earth into 5 COMMANDS. Its world map from the Unified Command shows the geographic roles of the combatant commanders: USNORTHCOM (US, Canada), USCENTCOM (Middle East) USEUCOM (EU, Russia, Africa), USPACOM (Australia, India, China, Japan, Pacific Islands), USSOUTHCOM (South America). Area of Responsibility for USARCENT/ CFLCC stretches from Egypt through Iran to Kazakhstan.
//www.army.mil/institution/organization/
Salar: Fantasy or not.
by Mohammad Alireza on Tue May 13, 2008 11:16 PM PDT.
Maybe you are right and there will be no retaliation from Sepah, but I doubt it. Let’s hope there are no training camps to bomb and this will all go down as another episode of disinformation war. But sooner or later some sort of confrontation is going to take place given the proximity of American military forces. Intentional or not, or a false flag operation or not, we are going to witness some fireworks. And no it will not make the regime collapse but will unfortunately strengthen it.
.
Mohammad Alireza
Fantasy options at regime's disposal !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by salar (not verified) on Tue May 13, 2008 09:54 PM PDTDo you have amnesia man or just an uninformed poor soul with a BMW. I don’t remember any brave retaliation from Sepah when the iranair flight was shut down over the Persian gulf Americans and ayatolah was ordered to swallow down the poison in a hurry. I didn’t see any brave retaliation from Sepah when after the poison was swallowed by “if war goes on for twenty years we won’t stop” or “the way to Jerusalem passes thru Baghdad” or “war war until victory” Imam, Iraq started a full attack on all Iranian forces and killed many, destroyed towns and cities and captured thousands of POW’s for later negotiations until iraq accepted the cease fire and stopped the war 50 days after imam had gulped down the poison. I didn’t see any negotiations to make Iraq to at least pay monetarily for crimes and damages they had inflicted for 8 years. I didn’t see any retaliation when almost the entire Iranian navy was eradicated within half a day by Americans. I didn’t see brave Sepah do any retaliations when Iraq’s missiles were hitting iran’s cities in many each day. Later on in their own majlis it was revealed that sepah was running a scam during that time reporting and charging (money) for Russian/Chinese missiles it was hitting baghad and other iraq cities but in fact bagging the money and for every 3 missiles reported to have been fired only one was actually fired and the profit for the rest had been pocketed by brave Sepah commanders and their filthy friends. When Taliban in Afghanestan killed tens of Iranian diplomats and velayat called for retaliation, I didn’t see anybody moving a finger. See, I don’t think American military is “masteh” or like the defenseless, armless students of amir kabir or teachers, bus drivers, workers, or women who can just be overpowered by savagery of our brave sepah and be tortured. I think sepah is miscalculating thinking American military is just like students in koy daneshgah. See, They have guns too, bigger guns and are going to shoot back.
Can you elaborate a bit more on how exactly is brave sepah going to cut off fuel to US military? Is this another one of those capturing Qods thru Baghdad fantasies? Once the head of the snake is cut off in Tehran I don’t think anybody is going to move a muscle hitting anything in Iraq or Lebanon. Also describe to me all those oppressed Iranian who 21 million of them voted for khatami, aha, I mean voted against the regime and never showed up for antarinejads election going to do when they see the regime is crumbling. I assure you there will much much bigger than dovom khordad demostrations and every street in every city in iran will be like koyeh daneshga. The regime will just disappear with the first bomb, they know it, we all know it. so quit laying out these ridiculous fantasy scenarios, we all saw how they worked in 8 years Iraq war. Jang jang ta piroozi. Marg bar ….
It would be embarrassing for
by Mehdi on Tue May 13, 2008 05:30 PM PDTIt would be embarrassing for Bush if Iran did not respond at all. They would most likely have their spies setup in Iran to do respond on behalf of Iran, just in case Iran decided not to. Although, there are more than enough hot-headed idiots in Iran to do such a thing out of their sheer stupidity. But once such an attack starts, which seems VERY likely these days, your option is the only one - go look for cover. Nothing useful can be done. We have to wait for all the blood to be spilled and see if anybody will be left after the God knows how many years of war. If there is anything to be done, the time is NOW.
"Duck & Cover!"
by Killjoy (not verified) on Tue May 13, 2008 04:22 PM PDT"In the meantime I think I’ll go practice “Duck and Cover” and stay as far as away from any and all training camps."
And that's the smartest defense mechanism mankind has ever developed!
Everyone is hostage to US Corporations
by Ahmed from Bahrain on Tue May 13, 2008 03:53 PM PDTBush is just another puppet in the hand of the demonocracy and we are all dumb playing into their hands.
Check this to hear more from the horse's mouth.
//video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3968544393...
Ahmed from Bahrain
nothing will happen
by Anonymous23 (not verified) on Tue May 13, 2008 02:29 PM PDTI don't there will be an attack or a subsequent war with Iran. U.S, only attacks "easy" targets and countries. the ones that aren't able to put up a fight. They want a quick and easy "mission accomplished" Shock and Awe type of scenario. They can't afford another war.
They are stupid but that stupid?
by farokh2000 on Tue May 13, 2008 02:08 PM PDTI know the Warmongers in D.C. are crazy but they cannot be that nuts to start an all out war that would turn into a Nuclear War with all the big boys invoved.
If Depression is not on it's way already, it will be if they did the stupid thing.
I am sure AIPAC would love to see that happen but my bets and hopes are against it.