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Why now?
05-May-2008
Arms sales and military training in the Middle East have been increasing since the end of the US invasion of Iraq. The United States has delivered more weapons to this region than any other country in the world. Bush administration announced in 2007, unprecedented weapons deals worth at least $20 billion to Saudi Arabia and five other oil-rich Persian Gulf states, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
The arms deals, which include the sales of a variety of sophisticated weaponry, would be the largest negotiated by this administration. Furthermore, the military assistance agreements would provide $30 billion in new U.S. aid to Israel and $13 billion to Egypt over 10 years.
To ensure that the weapons for Arab neighbours would not pose a threat to Israel or weaken Israel's qualitative regional military advantage, the US predicted a balance of a 25 percent rise in US military and defence aid to Israel to assure Israel's concerns. Package to preserve Israel’s military superiority, or "qualitative edge" over its Arab neighbours, shows that Washington will increase its aid to Israel. Furthermore, Israel keeps the advantage of US engaging in joint military exercises, weapon research and development programmes, and exchanges of military scientists and engineers with the United States.
What the Bush administration wants from their Arab allies, in exchange for these deals, is to form political front against the IRI, not military front against Israel--like the anti-Soviet strategy consensus during the Cold War among US allied Arab states and Israel. Although, such a front has a high price for Arab nations, does not seem to bother the IRI at all.
No wonder that IRI’s seniors are not let down with the US arms sales, they even pretend to be glad to have US weapons but without troops in the region. For them, any weapons could be sooner or later pointed at “enemy of Islam”. They expressed their satisfaction through their state media, “One must consider the sale of American weapons to the Arab countries as a good omen, a divine gift offered to the Muslim fundamentalists by their enemies”, wrote Hossein Shariatmadari, a high-ranking intelligence officer appointed by the leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran as Chief Editor of the radical daily Kayhan.
The militarization of the Middle East is a “God-given” argument for the IRI to focus on a more aggressive search for technologically advanced weaponry beyond their traditional sources of China and Russia, and could further invigorate IRI’s aspirations of reaching a nuclear arsenal.
What concerns Israel, while several lawmakers close to the Israel lobby attempted to block the arms sales to Saudi Arabia, or at least condition it on a number of changes in Saudi policy, Israeli government signalled its approval.
Indeed, the forged new political front seems to be against no particular state in the region. Despite the tensions between the IRI and the Persian Gulf states, none of these US client states is to join eventual US military strikes against the IRI. The Gulf Cooperation composed of Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are traditionally pro-US regimes, housing US military bases, linked to the largest US oil and financial houses and the biggest purchasers of military goods from the US military-industrial complex. However, they repeatedly called for the US to engage Iran diplomatically and not militarily or with economic sanctions.
The only beneficiaries of this militarization are both the corrupt Shiite Mullahs and Sunnite Sheiks, who find a pretext of “foreign enemy” to further curb their own people, and the US arms fabricators, close to Bush and Cheney, who will be pocketing colossal benefits at sale of weaponry to such states. The only state in the region which may use arms against other population is Israel.
The Bush administration has found a way to massively fill in both Israeli and Arab arsenals with destructive arms. It's the same kind of logic as trying to put out a fire by pouring oil onto it. This provokes a new military race in a region which is already full of tension. The lucrative sales of the US military industry further weaken democratic movements, support military repressions, escalate arms races, exacerbate ongoing conflicts, be used to commit human rights abuses or support human rights abusers, and cause arms build-ups of the IRI.
IRI’s nuclear programmes and its support for terrorism provide the pretexts for the US to militarise the region. The 10-year business of weapons explains a pure lucrative goal rather than an immediate US aim of a new war in the region. The business can however be a demonstrative support for US Arab partners.
What concerns the previous rhetoric of democracy in the region, Bush administration has been considerably quiet for a long time about it, which used to be its miracle weapon against the malaise of an Islamic Arab world in which militant Islamism is fermenting. Now, delivery of weapons contradicts any “democracy” in the region.
Bush administration prefers to recognise that the term “democracy” is not an attractive word for the house of Saudi Wahhabi or the rich Sheiks of the Persian Gulf states. In this region, both allies and enemies of the US are doing nothing to promote democracy. The enemy of the US is the IRI, a brutal state which does not mind killing millions of people for its own survival. Among the Persian Gulf states, the biggest friend of the US is the house of Wahhabi, a corrupt house with a notorious reputation. Sunnite Islamic extremism and terrorism simply cannot be explained or understood without looking at the history and influence of Wahhabi Islam in the region.
One question posed by peace loving people and by concerned citizens is, why now? Why is a lame duck President seeking to gain more militarization in the region?
One answer may be the fact that after having toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Bush administration is now trying to control the rest of “moderate” Islamic world in the region. Their militarization does not necessarily mean a threat of military strikes on the IRI. US hegemony in the region is only possible when Bush can maintain links with the “moderate” allies by keeping the status quo with the IRI. It is to keep the IRI in perpetual check. Therefore for the Bush administration, the deals have, beside lucrative reasons, several geopolitical consequences:
- It increases Israel’s security -- since Israel is in peace with Egypt and not in conflict with Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf countries, it is the biggest beneficial of the deals.
- It establishes long military race between oil Arab countries from one side and the IRI from the other side.
- It reinforces US hegemony by reducing the influence of the concurrent powers of China, Russia, and the EU in the region. In this perspective, Bush plans to coerce the “moderate” Arab countries to align themselves with the neo-conservative agenda of the present US hegemony.
Chinese influence in the Middle East has grown in the past decade. With the goal of securing oil and gas to fuel China's economic growth, the Chinese government has actively cultivated its relations with the oil-rich Middle East, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia. China and Russia have also lucrative weapons deals with Saudi Arabia.
For Bush administration, these above points seem the main priorities. Therefore, its increasing military cooperation with a series of client countries in the region must guarantee both economic and geopolitical interests of the US and its regional base, Israel.
In fact, under the Bush administration, the Middle East is caught in a vicious cycle; it has become more insecure and explosive. While the region needs peace and democratisation, extremism, terrorism and political Islam, have their ground to emerge stronger than before.
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This is why now!
by Anonym7 (not verified) on Wed May 07, 2008 05:13 PM PDTJR, this is why now:
The New Geopolitics of Energy:
//www.thenation.com/doc/20080519/klare
Ironically, it has more to do with China .... than Iran.
Re: Jahanshah
by jamshid on Wed May 07, 2008 12:39 PM PDTI agree with every word. The IRI could have lasted in the 15th century, as did the Safavids for example. The Safavids succeeded in converting Iranians to Shia (as usual) by force.
But in today's world, a government like IRI simply won't work. It will eventually destroy itself. Today, unlike centuries ago, people can access information. Easy communication is at a global level. This has the same effect than "printing" had in Europe many centuries ago. With printing came books, and with books came information, with information came the Renaissance.
The same thing is happening today in our country, but at a much faster pace than did in Europe. The IRI is unwillingly serving Iran's renaissance more than the Pahlavis/Mosadeghs/Kasravis/etc did in the past, much more. They are destroying their own ideology.
Their death is inevitable. I consider myself lucky to be among a generation who could actually and closely "witness" the death process of IRI's ideology, instead of reading it in history books.
Jamshid
by Jahanshah Rashidian on Wed May 07, 2008 04:52 AM PDTدرآينده دور يا نزديك حكومت جهل وجنايت فروميپاشد اما فراموش نشود كه سرچشمه تمام آن جنايتها عليه بشريت آنايدولوژي اهريمني است که از هرٌشیطان بزرگیٌ پلیدتر است.
این ديوهاي با عمامه يا بدون عمامه، خامنهای یا احمدیژاد تجربه قرنها جهاد و چنایت است که هدف ان نابودي انسان، نابودي خرد او، و به تاريكي كشاندن تمدن او است. تمام مستبدین براي بشريت خفقان و کشتار آورده اند. اين یکی قرنهاست كه انسانهارا با تمدنهای کهن انها ذبح اسلامی میکند و بزرگترین شیاطین خونخوار تاریخ را اینک تا فرشتگان نجات متداعی کرده است.
Re: Dariush
by jamshid on Tue May 06, 2008 07:49 PM PDTPlease don't worry about us. Worry about your own corrupt self. I suggest you increase the frequency of your visits to "the" ATM machine, aka the IRI, and gorge yourself with Iran's stolen riches while you can. If a war happens it will hurt all of us including you and your pockets. We do understand your concerns.
To All The Kissers
by Dariush (not verified) on Tue May 06, 2008 05:30 PM PDTIf U.S. attack Iran. Iran will unload thousands of missiles to U.S. bases in the region and Israel and will drown U.S. ships. All the oil field in Saudi Arabia and other neighboring countries will go up in flame. Then Iran will enter Iraq and U.S. casualties will rise from 4,000 to 150,000 Then the Gasoline will be $1000.00 per Gallon and there will be no food to eat. People will start eating each other. Specially in the west. They will kill, rub and do anything to survive. White will kill black, black will kill white, and both will kill Spanish and foreigners.
Then you sit at home and read your postings and opinions and tell yourself how stupid and selfish you were that didn't think this through and see it coming.
In our long history, Iran has seen many traitors just like you. If it wasn't for traitors like you we wouldn't have any problems today.
Then when U.S. grabbed you from your tail and throw you in a camp like japanese and starved you to death, then you will see how democratic they are. However that is not enough, since you have been a kisser all your life you continue kissing in hope of a little mercy. When you are taking your last breaths you will realize what a shameful life you lived. No pride, no dignity, no respect. But then it is too late.
Good analysis
by jamshid on Tue May 06, 2008 02:41 PM PDTThe IRI has served US interests for three decades at the expense of Iranians. It is continuing to do so today by taking Iran directly into the wolf's mouth, the US bully.
The IRI is the root of almost all of our miseries. The only solution is the overthrow of this backwareded regime and the removal of its bankrupt ideology from our culture.
US stradegy is to get free oil from middle east
by Al Sefati (not verified) on Tue May 06, 2008 02:28 PM PDTAnd the way they are doing it is they are selling crappy overpriced military hardware to middle easter countries. So they need to make sure there is enough instability in middle east so there will be enough need for them!
Freedom for Iran
by Iran post (not verified) on Tue May 06, 2008 12:11 PM PDTPeople in Iran need freedom. We do not know when and how expensive we acquire it, but freedom is the only precious dream we still live in Iran. Tell all people of the world, Iranians are in chains under the mollahs's regime.
airpower and back up know how
by cyrus- (not verified) on Tue May 06, 2008 10:25 AM PDTwhen we talk about US selling F-16 , F-18 and so on to Israel and the Arab states, one thing must be kept in mind and that is ; how they sell the maintenance and overhaul to the buyer.
In the case of Israel they receive 100% of maintenance know how and capability to repair the planes themselves.
But for the Arab states of the Persian Gulf it will be the US technicians who would repair these planes at a cost.
Arab Air Force techs won't all that involved in repair and overhaul, because they won't be given an in_depth training by the US AF.
Air attack
by Anonymous 33 (not verified) on Tue May 06, 2008 09:23 AM PDTAny air strike only on the regime's military bases triggers immediate reactions of popular courage and uproar against the regime. The result of such psychological attacks can end up with a popular revolution to topple the IRI.
Trenchant and to the point.
by sadegh on Tue May 06, 2008 06:48 AM PDTTrenchant and to the point. Thanks...
Irandokht / Kamangir
by Jahanshah Rashidian on Tue May 06, 2008 07:53 AM PDTAccording to CBS News , an air strike can be implemented in Khuzestan, where the Qods has its training camps.
This plan however remains in a language of bilateral threat rather than an expedition.
Logistically, the US is not in the position to launch a ground attack on the IRI. All the US ground troops stationed in the region are less than 300,000-- less than only the troops of IRGC without millions of regular army plus Basijis. The Persian Gulf states would not send troops in Iran, as Saudi Arabia did during the Iraq War.
Air strikes are likely on the table. Another moderate Shiite state in the region is not bad for the US, but they are not so far afoot to force a regime change.
Irandokht
by cyrus- (not verified) on Tue May 06, 2008 04:59 AM PDTIrandokht:
This time I fully agree with you. You see I am not that bad.
And as for the new look of Iranian.com
I don't like it a bit. Who sold you this idea??
I have a bridge in Brooklin for sale , interested ?
Very dangerous game!
by Kamangir on Tue May 06, 2008 04:53 AM PDTI agree with Irandokht. The world powers want to re-shape the region based on its oil profitability, although they have always been doing that one way or the other. We all know they could get rid of the IRI without any war and yet everything seem to indicate that there will be a conflict of unforseen consequences, where now everyone seems to have the latest weaponery. It must be similar to Iran-Iraq war, but on a much larger scale. After all, the Iran-Iraq war was imposed and financed by the same powers that later invaded Iraq and are looking forward to bash Iran. All this must be related to oil and the fact it's running out in the coming decades. This is a very, very dangerous game. As an Iranian, I can only care for the future of our country. It's said that the US among others plan to invade the province of khuzestan and cut it from Iran. This would be the ideal case scenario, as Iran is better off without this nasty product called oil. We've never benefited from it, all the opposite, therefore I wish they grab what they want and leave us alone. In such case senario the IRI would no longer exist. At this point our first priority must be our Iranian and Persian culture (in serious danger of exitition by the IRI) as well as having a free and democratic socity. But will this be possible in middle of a huge caos and conflict around us? I am really concerned about what lies ahead for Iran. But when I look at the larger picture, is there anything worse than the IRI for Iran?
why not?
by IRANdokht on Mon May 05, 2008 04:10 PM PDTGreat analysis of the current situation in the region.
This is the most dangerous situation with this bunch in power: they make money selling the weapons, they ruin the region, rape and kill the nations, then they hire Blackwater for security and Halliburton for reconstruction.
It's a win-win situation for the Bush administration and they will have income from the ruins of the middle east for decades to come, long after they leave the white house.
really scary
IRANdokht