Dual communication

A Pro-Iran argument against the IRI’s nuclear program

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Dual communication
by ganselmi
27-Jan-2009
 

The new US Ambassador to the United Nations, Dr. Susan Rice, has vowed that the Obama administration intends to pursue “vigorous diplomacy” to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons.

According to Obama himself, such diplomatic overtures will be complemented by a principled “carrots and sticks” approach conducted, presumably, in concert with the EU and -- potentially -- China and Russia, who have traditionally been less willing to really press Tehran to comply with its NPT obligations. Clearly then, the Obama administration needs to immediately to reach out to these powers, as well as the broader international community, to make the case that a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic is simply an unacceptable prospect.

One wonders however, if reaching out directly to the Iranian people is part of Obama, et al’s diplomatic agenda? While many courageous Iranians have openly questioned the regime’s confrontational stance when it comes to Iran’s nuclear dossier, opinion polling has shown that, by and large, the majority of the Iranian people strongly believe that the their nation has an inherent right to nuclear technology and even nuclear weapons. Of course, any polling data coming out of a totalitarian society should be taken with more than a grain of salt.

That said, it’s safe to assume that the nuclear issue has become a matter of patriotic pride for the Iranian people — to the point that even some opponents of the regime have expressed support for its efforts in the nuclear arena. The nuclear issue, in other words, has come to transcend bitter disagreements with the regime on many other fronts, including democratization, secularization, women’s rights, economic reform, etc.

Given that this is the case, should the US and its allies deliver a message to the Iranian people (as separate from the clerical regime)? If so, what would such a message consist of?

I would argue that the US, European Union, and other responsible powers should indeed speak with the Iranian people, in addition to whatever other incentives and disincentives they’d provide to the regime to persuade it to abandon its dangerous course of action. Such a “dual communication” strategy is nothing new: the free world’s history is indeed replete with examples of leaders who warmly reached out to the peoples of enemy governments, most especially Ronald Reagan.

Obama himself has already began to follow such a path by distinguishing governments who rule by ”silencing dissent” from the peoples they oppress. But Obama needs to go much further in the coming years. Moreover, he needs to explicitly address the nuclear issue when doing so.

So how should the US voice its opposition to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear endeavors in a way that appeals to the “hearts and minds” of the Iranian people? The simplest, most effective message to the Iranian people would be to say that the US, fully and without reservation, supports the Iranian people’s right to acquire nuclear technology, but then add: since the IRI is not a legitimate representative of the Iranian people, to oppose its nuclear programs is not tantamount to violating the sovereign rights of the Iranian nation. The US should further reason that, if anything, a nuclearized IRI represents a threat to the interest of all Iranians who are not happy with the status quo in their country, including those seek to only change the regime’s behavior if not the regime itself. After all, it will be much more difficult to modify the regime’s behavior at home and abroad — let alone change the regime altogether — once the IRI is able to boast a nuclear arsenal.

I believe such a line of reasoning and such a message will do much to reduce domestic support for the regime’s nuclear policy. Let’s hope Obama will use his immense powers of rhetoric to deliver such a message.

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more from ganselmi
 
Ari Siletz

Fred, I think you will agree

by Ari Siletz on

Here's how you brought sanctions into the context:      "Stop all, and that is all oil imports from Islamist republic." "The Islamist republic is being empowered by foreign capital." 

Never mind though; we are more likely to find common ground in less analytical matters. So this time I will change the subject.  Who is this rahajoon29 on the right side of my screen? She's lovely, don't you think?


Fred

Chaffless

by Fred on

I thought your point was that the Islamist republic is needed to hold the nation together till a viable alternative is found. I see now it is about the pros and cons of sanctions. I am sorry I’ve gone through this merry-go-round too many times to feel compelled do it once more. Changing subject midstream is unbecoming of you and that is no chaff. 


Ari Siletz

Fred, splitting hairs

by Ari Siletz on

I do find substance in your points, otherwise I wouldn't be engaging you. Your writing style doesn't irritate me. In fact it entertains, though it clouds your substance. As an example, here's substance vs. chaff:                                                               

Substance:

1. Ari argues that lifting sanctions and including Iran in global affairs would be a fast way to weaken IRI policies because national accomplishments would raise our level of politcal confidence. Let's call this the "feed a fever" theory.

2. Fred's argues that lifting sanctions is morel likely to raise the confidence of the IRI because it would appear the world community is legitimizing the regime. We can call this the  "starve a cold"theory.                           

Chaff:

1. Fred says Ari proposes the "feed the fever" idea becasue he is either in cahoots with the IRI, or is profoundly naive.

2. Ari says Fred proposes his "starve the cold" theory because he is a so mad at the IRI he has lost his sense of reason.


Fred

Jim Crow Laws

by Fred on

Are you being serious? Hope you are not spitting hairs or being glib. The situation is as in Jim Crow laws, removing the hindrance for the people to make their choices freely and NOT making it for them.  The Islamist republic is being empowered by foreign capital, removing that the playing field is somewhat leveled giving Iranians a fighting chance. As to the writing style, go for the substance, if you find any that is, and virtual- edit the parts that irritate you.


Ari Siletz

Fred, just to understand you better

by Ari Siletz on

Thanks Fred. Would you clarify how the following statements in your response are not contradictory?   1. "...no one, absolutely no one has the right to decide their [Iranian's] fate from outside."   2. "No nation in such situation has ever succeeded in emancipating itself without help from outside."

Part of why I'm having trouble seeing your line of reasoning may have to do with how you pepper your discourse with bouts of political passion. If possible, edit those out. If that's just your style of writing, I'll live with it.

 


Fred

Haji babab novelet

by Fred on

Writing Haji babab novelet is not my cup of tea. Those who are into pipe dream of reformation within this Islamist regime and are willing to wait for it to the last enslaved Iranian from their perch in the West are more suited for the task.
All I know the last regime was warning that Iran will become “Iranistan”, something that never happened and with Iran being homogenized will never happen. That is precisely the tenet of your argument with “IRI finger in the dike” and “none keeps us together specifically as Iranians. For now, Shiism is performing that function.” That is patently untrue.The “we” that did the confronting the Shah should know that by now.
 As to my recipe, it is quite simple, nothing extraordinary, empowering the Iranians to freely make their choice. If as the lefties say and the Islamists chime in that it is the end of Iran as we know it, so be it. If their imagined Iran is such fragile entity that requires maniacal murderers to keep it together, one has to question the wisdom of such unity.
Of course the actual Iran is nothing of the sort and far from it, but with revisionist historians abound one has to dust off actual credible history books to realize that.
You want it 1,2,3. Here is one way of weakening the Islamist regime’s grip on Iranians’ throats. 1- Stop all, and that is all oil imports from Islamist republic, there is an oil glut and it is definitely doable. 2- Stop all refined petroleum including gasoline exports to the Islamist republic. 3- Declare an Internationally guaranteed general amnesty for lower echelon functionaries of the Islamist regime.
The rest is up to Iranians inside Iran, no one, absolutely no one has the right to decide their fate from outside. The way thing are going the Islamist are eliminating the best and the brightest and facilitating the flight  of others to be left alone to do as they wish with enslaved Iranians. At this rate the oil income will not suffice the growing population and the best outcome is a Bangladesh in our not too distant a future.

No nation in such situation has ever succeeded in emancipating itself without help from outside and betting Iranian lives to be the first to achieve such feat is the height of arrogance and irresponsibility.

I trust Iranians’ judgment to make the right choice it seems to me there are those who don’t and like to act as their guardian, isn’t that precisely the definition of Vali-faghih?


Ari Siletz

Fred, bake me a pie

by Ari Siletz on

Would you briefly describe in a 1, 2, 3 format the best case scenario you envision for an IRI free Iran, starting with how she got rid of the regime? Write your novel outline, I'll read it with interest. Feel free to include characters that erroneously warned that toppling the Shah without better organization would end up in a bad way. I've always wanted to be a bad guy in someone's novel. 

Fred

Pie in the sky

by Fred on

On the issue of the Islamist republic’s crimes Iranian lefties kept silent throughout the last U.S. administration’s time in office. Their logic was not to legitimize and give added ammunition to those who wanted militarily change the regime in Iran. In furtherance of this strategy some even became active Islamist apologists. 

Now the formulation of the status quo proposition is a pie in the sky strategy warning not to mess with the grout i.e. the Islamist republic which is holding the nation’s bricks together.

 As it has been throughout the ages the same self-serving erroneous warning was sounded by the last regime and proven wrong, again.


Ari Siletz

ganselmi, the risks.

by Ari Siletz on

We’re on the same page wishing to see our country (re) enter the community of responsible powers. We only differ in our estimate of the right time to begin delegitimizing the IRI.                                                      You state, "until such time as the regime's behavior is sufficiently modified that it can boast an authentic national consensus." Delegitimizing the IRI, say by restricting national accomplishments, seems counter to working to change the regime’s behavior. Along those lines, a strong Iran may actually weaken the IRI, if it truly has limited legitimacy. After all, we confronted the Shah precisely when our national confidence peaked to the point where we decided we deserved better.                                                   We fought unprepared, and right now the IRI looks like the only show in town. A not-too-close second in keeping the nation in one piece is some sort of Pahlavi, with the unifying appeal of our monarchic history. The third alternative, the democracy of dreams, has been lapped because it is framed in terms of human rights, the rule of law and secularism, each of which brings us closer to global good citizenship, but none keeps us together specifically as Iranians. For now, Shiism is performing that function.                                                 A new push for democracy--including the Mossadegh legacy--risks the who-am-I confusion and disunity we experienced after the revolution. Echoes of that chaos still ring loudly on this very website.

We’re not ready to loosen the IRI finger out of the dike.


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To bande

by da professor (not verified) on

No country with an inflation rate of 30% can be called "prosperous" -- and that has nothing to do with UN sanctions.

Oh and: WRITING IN ALL-CAPS WILL NOT, I REPEAT, WILL NOT AMPLIFY THE POWER OF YOUR IDEAS!


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Dual communication

by bande (not verified) on

TO THOSE WHO CAN'T SEE PROSPERITY OF IRAN AND IT'S
INDEPENDNESS:MANY LIKE YOU HAVE TRIED TO GIVE USA GOVERNMENT ADVISE DURING THE LAST 30 YEARS , NONE HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL. YOU IF REALYY LIKE IRAN AND IF YOU DON'T LIKE TO SELL IRANIANS INTEREST FOR YOUR OWN
GAIN IS BETTER TO ASK PRESIDENT OBAMA TO LIFT ALL THE SANCTIONS THAT HAS BEEN IMPOSED BY HIS
PRECEDORS ON IRANIAN AND SEE HOW THE HARD WORKING
PEOPLE OF IRAN WILL FLURISH.


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What's the matter with the poor?

by wind (not verified) on

Regarding supporting a government who works against your economic and social interest, as the mullahs have done. This phenomenon is not unique to Iranians.

Did you know that in election 2004, The 10 states with the lowest household median income, where people are least likely to have healthcare and most likely to live in or below poverty, all voted Republican in 2004. Not only are they poor, but they're getting poorer. The five states with the steepest falls in income backed Bush. Why? Thomas Frank describes this paradox.

In his book What's The Matter With Kansas?, Thomas Frank described the tendency of working-class people to vote Republican as a form of derangement. He said that the working class had been hoodwinked into voting against its economic interests by "values" issues such as abortion and gay rights, both religious issues. The poor white usually vote republicans because they are more relgious and Republicans manipulate their religious sensibilities.

Now replace republicans with the mullahs, and you will see why despite their worsening condition, they still support their mullahs. It is a tragic situation and in the absense of free press, free education, free information, Iranian will continue to support those who don't have their interests at heart and they continue becoming poorer and poorer and more religious and superstitious.

It's a vicious cycle.

//www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/080507774X/...


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Logic 101

by wind (not verified) on

All I said was that the majority of people in Iran still support IRI.

What do you think "Support" means? If they are behind the gov't, it follows that they also support/endorse the 'said government's policies, both domestic and foreign. It means they are in agreement with the vision of their government for their lives.

Definition of support

a. To aid the cause, policy, or interests of: supported her in her election campaign.
b. To argue in favor of; advocate: supported lower taxes.
8. To endure; tolerate: "At supper there was such a conflux of company that I could scarcely support the tumult" Samuel Johnson.
9. To act in a secondary or subordinate role to (a leading performer).
n.
1.

//www.thefreedictionary.com/support


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wind,

by TP (not verified) on

I didn't say any of the things that you suggested. Those are your words not mine. All I said was that the majority of people in Iran still support IRI. And I'm talking about the whole Iran, not just northern Tehran. Prove me wrong if you can.


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Dual Communication

by Rooh e Mosadeq (not verified) on

As you mentioned this is a matter of national pride and followings should be considered in regards to this issue:

First: Building Nuclear Power stations was a Shah's idea and the first contract for this was with US (rather than IRI's idea).

Second: We can not have the policy of "Yek bam o do Hava" in the region for this, the issue of double standard by western powers.

Third: Why the Iranian people should suffer and pay price for this issue, I am talking about sanctions and the restrictions which is very inhumane and un-ethical.

Fourht: Persians are well known for being a peaceful nation as we do not have an aggressive culture (when was the last time that Persians attacked their neighbours?) even with an extreme government I dont see this issue as dangerous as it is in Pakistan or Israel.

This is another tactic to make Iran as a new ENEMEY in the region and sell more arms to the SMART! Arabs and deplete their national resources...

Payendeh Iran

Tanha dar Ahmadabad


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Build it

by Amir Kabir with a tray full of yellow cake (not verified) on

"Build it, they will come"


Farhad Kashani

ganselmi,   I truly

by Farhad Kashani on

ganselmi,

 

I truly like to applaud you for a great article and phenomenal logic and reasoning. Very impressive.

  

I wish to see much more contribution on your part, and people like you, on this site and elsewhere in support of the Iranian people and against the Fascist regime in Tehran.

 

Thank you again.

 


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must watch video

by al (not verified) on

Ahmadinejad on science of Nuclear technology:

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfFOMn5EK1Q


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if they build it they deserve it!

by Anonym7 (not verified) on

If IRI manages to build the nukes, it definitely deserves it, conversely if it is all noise, IRI does not deserve it. In final analysis to a large extent it comes down to a few dedicated politicians and scientists.


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You can't stop science! by

by sickoflies (not verified) on

You can't stop science!
by Anonymous.... (not verified) on Wed Jan 28, 2009 11:43 AM PST

More Maghlateh and sophistry by Q and his minions.

The type of nuclear technology the IRI is buying is a 70-years old antiquated, inefficient, and out-dated. We all know that the IRI is anti-science.

Why not research and develop up-to-date technologically advanced/efficient nuclear technologies?

Why is the IRI against cutting edge new technologies and science?


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This population in Iran is

by from chah-e- jamakaran (not verified) on

This population in Iran is so informed that the President of this country tells his supporters/constituents that a 16-year old girl was able to obtain/make nuclear technology by what she had in her kitchen and the subsequently, she was hailed as a national hero...If anyone remembers the story or has a link, please provide them.

This is country where people are waiting for their 1000-year old savior to jump out of well in Jamakaran any minute to improve their lives and make the world and Islamic Nabe Mohammadi. Give me a break ari, You're insulting our intelligence.


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You can't stop science!

by Anonymous.... (not verified) on

Just a few years ago, while Iran was in the midst of it's internal chaose of the 79 revolution, the west unleashed Sadam and sparked a war that killed hudreds of thousands of iranians. As Sadam attacked Iran, the US warships sank iran's docked naval vessels, and downed civilian airliner to send a message to Iran's fighter jets. At the same time (by a US official's own admission on 60 minutes) the west sold military aircrafts to Sadam, while Israel sold their to Iran, and since Sadam couldn't produce and train pilots fast enough, the french provided french pilots to fly Mirage jets (flying under Iraqi flags) on bombing missions inside Tehran.

In the midst of all this the western propeganda machine went in full motion to brand the muallahs as the monsters that the zionist, it's cronies or their naive fense post followers label as " expansionist, interventionist, confrontationalist, totalitarian, faciest, terrorist....blah! blah! blah!)

Don't treat Iranians as if they are a bunch of stooges. They don't view history as if it began a 100 years ago. Their youth see how we took democracy to Iraq while we turn the blind eye to Israel and Saudi Arabia, Darfur etc. They also know about how over the past 2000 years different imperialist powers succeeded in occupying Afghanestan.

Obama may be the new face, but everyone around him in our government has been there and done than for last 30+ years, and if our internal and external affairs is any indication, many of them are obviously suffering from Dementia.

If we continue with this naive, degrading and insulting phrase "All options are on the table" we will continue to expand the mullahs popularity at our own expense and doing. And with all do respect, if this essay and few of the posts in this thread are any indication, we fail to recognize that at this time and juncture our "Think Tanks" lack the knowledge or the IQ to match up with the mullahs.

Iranian know when and how to deal with their own government and under their own terms and conclusions. For now, if we aren't willing to eliminate our own nuclear aresenal, the west is best served to get use to the fact that Nuclear Technology will always remain a matter of national pride for Persians and Iranians alike!


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False premise!

by wind (not verified) on

"good conscience and sound judgment"

How could they form "informed judgment" when they are kept the dark via censorship and brainwashed to be soldiers of Islam??

If all the details including better nuclear technologies , pros and cons including their dangerous and unsafe locations (e.i, populated areas and quake-prone locations) , costs and benefits, regarding nuclear power technology and how it is obtained, I'm certain that the most Iranians would rather spend their oil revenues on much better and profitable form of nuclear technology or other alternative and superior technologies than nuclear.


ganselmi

Ari, I Agree -- But!

by ganselmi on

"Beyond their own good conscience and sound judgment, Iranians don't need a stamp of approval to pursue any kind of technology."

In principle and as an Iranian, I fundamentally agree with what you've suggested here. It's all the more unfortunate then that the IRI's systematic misrule divests the average Iranian of the right to follow her conscience and exercise sound judgement. Or to use the language of constitutional patriotism: the absence of the rule of law and freedom of information prevents Iranians from being able to endorse -- freely and in good faith -- the decisions made by the regime. This profound injustice discredits any claims to national consensus cited by the IRI.

Which is why I think the legitimacy (or, really, lack thereof) of the "guardianship of the jurisconsult" or the other dubious categories on which the IRI rests its sovereignty should be the focus of efforts to dissuade Iranians from going down the path of nuclearization until such time as the regime's behavior is sufficiently modified that it can boast an authentic national consensus -- at that point of course, Iran will have (re-)entered the community of responsible powers.

But again, in principle, I very much agree with you. 


Ari Siletz

Mildly insulted by this article

by Ari Siletz on

I don't have the benefit of a poll, but I'm guessing the average Iranian couldn't care less about the benevolent support of America and her allies. The response to both the carrot and the stick has so far been "khar khodeti." Using the nuclear issue to divide the nation would be seen for what it is.  Beyond their own good conscience and sound judgment, Iranians don't need a stamp of approval to pursue any kind of technology. 

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US lacks moral credibility

by An Iranian (not verified) on

The US has no moral credibility to complain about the IRI's human rights record, and the US has blatantly violated its own obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Countries that train and arm nun-raping death squads in Central AMerica and provide chemical weapons to Saddam are not to be relied with nuclear arms. Thats a reference to US, in case you didn't get it.


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to: TP

by wind (not verified) on

TP: Based on your assessment, the US should infer that the majority of Iranians support the IRI's expansionist/interventionist/confrontational foreign policies including defeating "imperialist" US via "noble act of terrorism/resistance".

By your description, the majority of Iranian people are extremist who are staunch believer of militant Islam and its eventual goals of world domination a la Khomeini and wiping out Israel off the map. Your analysis of Iranian population also implies that majority of Iranians are Islamists/Jihadists who are willing to kill/jihad against the Satanic "WEST" in their "Noble" to create an Islamic Utopian world per Khamenie's orders.

In conclusion, you have branded the most of Iranian nation as fascists who are hell bent on challenging the Infidel West as prescribed by Koran in a new wave of Jihad of 21st century. In other words, the Iranian people are ready to destroy Iran and give their life and treasure in pursuit of this "holy mission".

If that is the case, I hope the supporter of the regime are also ready for the consequences of achieving their "holy project". I hope they don't expect the West to sit idly by and allow the jihadist/crusader mob to take over the world...

Let the crusade begin!


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It was just an example

by Alborzi (not verified) on

Like usual, most people are not capable of understanding the post. So let me make it so that your average iranian.com reader can get. In the western ideology we use a cost/benefit to value each alternative.
In the Eastern method your personal relation ship to the right person is the key. You can threaten IRI with annihilation, in fact Dubaya at one time had 3 nuclear air craft carriers in Persian Gulf, but IRI does not get that. Capiche.


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dual communication

by Landanneshin (not verified) on

I read it twice to convinc myself that calling it a piece of crap would be justified. Obviously, by not knowing the author,my verdict could not be personal but hardly a day passes that the so called 'Iran analysts' living in the west don't make an ass of themselves by widely demonstrating, either, their ignorance or their prejudices. On the highly emotive and controversial question of Iran's quest for a nuclear capability, while personally against all nuclear weapons,wherever they might be, I could understand the fear of those in Iran who might be pushing for it, because I could name a couple of nuclear powers who have their nuke missiles targetet on Iran. But, for the life of me, I could not imagine any known nuclear power, including Israel, who have Paris or London on their sights, the two countries who passionatley defend spending billions on keeping and updating their useless arsenal.For that matter, I'd love to know where are the huge number of American,Russian and Chinese missiles targeted on! As for India and Pakistan, it is only a 'Delkhoshi' for imagining that they are virile, like an old man with a pill box full of Viagra!! So, my plea to all 'Iran analysts' is either have the guts to say it openly that its only OK for West's client states to have them, or politely shut up.


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Fred , you have audacity to

by king david (not verified) on

Fred , you have audacity to feed us this domcracy crap ? when pals excercised democracy they denied FOOD and water and electricity , not to mention your us made cluster and tungestan and phospours and depleted uranium ..

and where are those western decomcracies that CRIED for TIBET few months ago ? how many kids china clustered ?

you talk democracy when us government are isreali citizen or her supporters , %23 of us senators are isreal citizen serving interest of a foreign country

thats TREASON punishable by death according to US LAW , is this wishes of american people = democracy ?

us presdient kenney was killed because he opposed isreal nuke program , so you need to obey your masters ( this is DEMOCRACY ), but in this case you get stronger mullahs and weaker europe

you streighten the regime as every iranian backs the nuclear program , even monarchist back nuclear program ..

you make europe hostage to russian (gas)and lost all its political power

because you dont want irans gas go to europe because DEMOCRACY means obeying your masters