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I actually agree...

... with most of what Siamack says here. I just have a doubt about a few things, the important one being the statement that the regime has a 500,000 strong Sepah entirely at its disposal to crush any dissent. If that is the case, why have we seen the import of Palestinian/Lebanese/Iraqi soldiers, even for "moral activity" crackdowns, and that, for some years now?

//chinaconfidential.blogspot.com/2009/07/1500...

Siamak You are I am afraid

Siamak

You are I am afraid wrong in your analysis. In short the non-violent movement has nothing to do with this green movement.

Non-violent movements do not accept any principle that condones capital punishment that Mousavi's Islamic green movement has.

The very fact that Mousavi and others went out and put themselves in harms way, proves that it is not a non-violent movement. I personally told them all off in many forums for falling pray to the Seyyeds' ploy.

A non-violent movement is based on the power of threatening inaction. It is not quick, and it does not involve physical confrontation.

What non-violent opposition will do is to threaten the Seyyeds with a "stay at home" peaceful unity amongst real Iranians, who do not believe in physical confrontation, but believe in verbal engagement.

Our objective is to confront their bullets and clubs with threats of complete shut down in Iranian industry. The Seyyed has to realise that one day we will shut down Iran and he has no power to stop us.

This is the only way to persuade them to engage with us in a dialogue. Once we have the dialogue then we can verbally and intellectually defeat them. That will then destroy their ideology and lay the foundation for regime change in a peaceful manner.

No other solution is better.

Ali Mostofi

//www.alimostofi.com

some people's arrogance has no limits

I am not sure which one is more amazing, your hubris or
your ignorance. Reducing the culmination of over a decade of democratic movement in Iran to
some youth blowing off steam is just ridiculous. People of all ages are out there,
not just Tehrani kids willing to 'kick ass’. In case you didn't hear, there has
been strong women, student, labor movements in Iran for over a decade. And you pretend
you are the only wise guy in town who can figure things out? What arrogance! A
suggestion: Why you don't stick to satire?

Dear Read:

Erlich is right. The CIA "and others" are not responsible. If they were, Pepe Escobar and so many other commentators on the left who get their panties wet every time they have the opportunity to blame the CIA for anything would be doing it very loudly...not to mention the Chinese press, which at the beginning apparently had a field day mocking and making cartoons about Ahmadinejad and his 'victory. They actually supported the protesters implicitly.

Until they realized the violence wasn't going to go away. And when they started fearing it would destabilize the neighboring countries and then the region..they just got quiet.

According to Asia Times.

I don't recall them saying the Chinese ever mentioned the CIA

Ahmadinejad unwelcome in

Ahmadinejad unwelcome in Egypt: lawyer

Unacceptable insult

" Deriding religion is criminalized in the Egyptian law. If the Danish cartoonist who insulted the prophet came to Egypt, he would be arrested and tried "
Lawyer Mahmoud IsmailAccording to the complaint, of which Al Arabiya obtained a copy, in a campaign interview with Iran's Channel Three on June 10 Ahmadinejad accused two of the prophet's sahaba, companions, Talha ibn Obaidallah and al-Zobeir ibn al-Awam, of apostasy and betrayal.

"Deriding religion is criminalized in the Egyptian law. If the Danish cartoonist who insulted the prophet came to Egypt, he would be arrested and tried," said Ismail, adding that the statement was an insult to the entire Muslim world and particularly Egypt, which is predominantly Sunni.

Ismail added that Ahmadinejad's statement constituted an insult to the entire Muslim world and particularly Egypt, which is predominantly Sunni.

He added that, despite disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Egypt on one hand and Iran on the other, neither President Hosni Mubarak nor King Abdullah had ever insulted Shiite Muslims.

"The complaint aims at proving that Sunnis are capable of defending their faith and standing up to insults," Ismail concluded.

//www.alarabiya.net/articles/2009/07/02/77608...

Reece Erlich:" Iran not a twitter revolution"

Iran not a Twitter Revolution
The Real News / Reece Erlich
27-Jun-2009 (5 comments)
Just days after his return from post-election Iran, we spoke with journalist and author Reece Erlich. Erlich explains that the importance placed on internet social networking like Twitter by the Western media is a function of how they have been learning about the events, not a reflection on the movement as a whole. "The movement is a lot broader than the relatively well-to-do people who can afford to send Twitter or invest in computer equipment," says Erlich. Erlich published a book in 2007 exposing US attempts to destabilize Iran, such as the funding of domestic terrorist groups. But he adds that while the CIA and others may be active in the country, they are not responsible for the uprising.

//iranian.com/main/news/2009/06/27/iran-n...

Two questions

The first one is to the general public:

Is Jaleho for real?

Does she really think she can use Siamack's vitriiolic diatribe against a Regime he loathes and detests to the very core of his being as proof positive that she was right along? Boy..politics sure DOES make strange bedfellows;

and speaking of bedfellows, the second question is to Sia:

How 'bout we wait til tomorrow and see? If no one shows up in silence with a rose, then it all was just to vent rage, or if everyone shows up and they all get their skulls cracked in--whether they had a rock or not--and it's time for the Molotov cocktails, I'll pay for your next trip to Vegas for you and Jaleho to go see Seema. You said she specializes in threesomes, right? 

Although...I dunno if Seema can handle her on top of you...Jaleho sounds preeeeeeeeeetty kinky...

lol

___________________

But seriously,

The piece is full of good points, full of holes...so many contradictions...but the format and style you choose exempt you from having to clarify them. Or defend them (you won't). Ultimately your piece is no different from the movement you describe--a nuanced pastiche of profound truths, half-truths, and pipe dreams. 

as in pipes you can shove up your you-know-what...or have someone shove them up it for you...

Good read, though.

well said babak !!

i agree with alot of babak pirouzian said below. i myself used to be a muqa'lid of khamenei and so of course i, to my regret, supported the IRI 100%.

After the events of last month, everything has changed for me  as well as for several other iranian orthodoxy muslims. i am no longer a muqalid of khamenei and have now switched to sistani. my thoughts of the iri has completely changed as well. ----the regime must reform or it must die. and if it can not reform and does Die then it is to the benefit of iran. and to the benefit of islam as well.

siamack

Spot on my friend. This regime won't just give up their fortune and leave. Sadly the only way to deal with this regime is not through non violent protest but with arms. I'm confident that once that starts from within many of these basiji's would vanish.

No matter what happen from now on.....

Even if the regime stays in power which I doubt;  

-IRI is not the same as it was prior to so called election,

-More people have realized 30 years of lies and deceit. Rahbar is no longer Rahbar as he was portrayed in people's mind, 

-A.N. constant unbelievable, embarressing lies at home and in international arena, his hallucination, prior his first selection and constant "avam faribi" after that, is now clear to all people more than ever before.

-The selection debates were the best vehicle for all 70 million  Iranians to hear and see what sort of so called Islamic regime/leaders they were following for last 30 years.

-People realized what type of blood/power thirsty the Rahbar is, who  doesn't give a damn about their own so called Constitution

-International communities realized what type of "un-holy" leaders are running the show and despite regime's slogans, they saw with their own eyes that Iranian people are looking for freedom and democracy. The whole world saw how civilized, none violent and democratic rallies conducted and how they were confronted with bunch of thugs and animals who were beating, arresting and even killing innocents, un-armed people; people who were only asking for their basic rights. The international community also realized that these bunch of wolves and liars are not trust worthy to deal with.  

-After these catastrophic illegal, savage treatment, Ahmadi nejad and his puppeteers do not have any legitimacy to run the country and they will not be able to continue as they used to.

-Ahmadi Nejad was not welcomed in many parts of the world, now, not having even an inch of creditability, respect and legitimacy, he may not even be able to visit his best few so called friends, including Mogabeh, Asad, and Chavez, ( just imagine his plane has to land for emergency purposes and or for refueling, their cash money may not be accepted)  

-Shia Islam, as it was introduced to the world, the second best to Taliban, now is more tarnished than ever before, history will tell how many people left Islam (mortad) because of regime's brutal, inhuman, unholy method of treating devoted Muslims, specially those who were part of foundation of revolution, those who gave their lives, their children's lives, woman who gave their gold bracelets, their wedding bands for revolution. 

-Freedom is not free, the best news is that Iran will remain with Iranians and there will be a day, even if we may not be here to see, that Shia Islam will remain a minority faith in Iran.                                   

JalehO is back with more "smart" postings

JalehO ..... your Islamo-Mafia brethren may not be thrown out of Iran, dead and on their asses tomorrow, but their demise is only a matter of time.

As they say, not a matter of IF, but a matter of WHEN. We have waited 30 years and we can wait a little longer.

But I hate to be you when that happens.  tick-toc, tic-toc, tic-toc

Siamak jan, are you a good historian?

I totally agree with what AnonymousX wrote.  Also, from your writings it appears that you have not lived in Iran for long time and people like us, we may not even have half of the answers.  Siamak jan, earlier today without reading your article and the comments about it, I was thinking about how good it would be to read newspapers from couple months before Bahman 1357.  I bet they did not write that Shah was close to leaving the country.  Unless you show me that you are a historian and a good one, I do not put much faith in your analysis of such a complex issue like predicting how events will fold in Iran.

So, Makhmalbaaf is Iranian representative in European

parliament, does the European parliament has representatives from all countries? Or, is it better to say that he's the European representative in Iranian internal affairs?!

It would have been more impressive to bring out what this LOSER has to say, if he had not become totally IRRELEVANT!! Europeans can continue to clap for him all they want though :-)

FYI

//news.gooya.com/politics/archives/2009/07/09...

To Jaleho: Good to see you still monitoring this site ...

Soooooooooooooo ANXIOUSLY

keep consoling yourself dear you need it ... lol

Good to see people recognize that

They were wrong, not the result of the election!

The real majority on the streets NEVER fades away by Michael Jackson news dominating the western media, the propaganda on CNN and Twitter does!!

Re: Siamak

You are not considering many things in your analysis. For example, the fact that a rift has been created among the mollahs is going to have a long term effect in the future and will significantly contribute to the downfall of the hard liners.

Also, it is too soon to make the kind of judgements you are making. It takes time for dedicated Iranians to organized and for dealings and wheelings to take place among the influencial people in Iran.

Remember that the Shah's regime was also based on a powerful military establishment. But it took almost a year for it to fall.

If someone would have made comments similar to yours in early summer of 1978, he probably crawled in a hole and hid there for a while after seeing the outcome.

The subject of your next article: Why Iranians jump into final conclusions too early?

yes and no

your post could've been almost the description of my encounter with my own nephew. sadly, he's becoming cynical very fast. you're correct that those who think that the struggle will come to a fast finish in favor of the dissenters is a pipe dream. i also agree with you that the demonstrations were not necessarily about mousavi and it must have felt good to have a legitimate reason to come out and dissent peacefully and at times forcefully (ass kicking).

where i disagree with you is that this is not a one-act show. the enemy is formidable and will not bow out so quickly. there is much at stake for the regime. even with all the fragmentation within the system, they will hang on for dear life so that their bread will not become stone. this is not an action movie where the conflict is resolved by the time you live the movie theater. this movement needs grass-root organization and the movement has sown some seeds in 1998 and now in 2009. even though the clergy are promising to execute those who organize such rallies, i think it's inevitable that charismatic leaders will emerge from within the movement (and i'm not talking about mousavi). at least that's what i hope. as anonymouse said: "hang on..."  yes, hang on brother and you may need many more buckets of pop corn before the show is over. cheers.

Amen, Brother

I've been saying the same thing for the past three weeks.  This regime is a military dictatorship.  And the only way military dictatorships fall is by change from within their own military aparatus, i.e., a coup.  None of this non-violent stuff will work with a brutal military dictatorship like the IRI.

what a petty :-(

I guess these days to express your opinion and your assessments of what is going on in Iran and give it more validity you have to make everyone else wrong and trash them. Too bad - really - this seems not to be limited to this blogger only :-(  

Thanks Siamack jan for trying to pour cold water over fire

But that fire will not extinguish! not any more!

what you and your ilk on this site are doing is exactly what mullahs in Iran want to discourage people and lead them to despair and you're doing their job for them!!

Ghorboone oon dahanet

Siamak jan,
Ghorboone oon dahanet....spot on brother....a big pipe dream it was and is....you gotta kill every single one of these mother fuckers to free Iran....no other way, no other how.

A dream

This had nothing to do with anything and was just kicking ass?!  "The opportunity" as you explained came as a result the election results.  Do you know if Mousavi had won there would be ass kicking again?  You don't know, no one knows.  Would Basijis be kicking ass and burning bikes and buses if Mousavi had won for the same correct reasons you explained?

Those who kicked ass and got bloodied didn't do it to be on facebook or twitter.  Would you do it?  Facebook and Twitter is for us.  For them it is what's next.  It is our Twitter revolution and their protesting any way they can. 

Also, non-violent movements don't always go to mass strikes within a month :-)  So hang on.  What is better than a non-violent movement?  Hun? It is a dream like MLK said.  So let's keep the dream alive.

Now that you mentioned the guy in the coffee shop, tell us what your nephew thinks about all these Iranian news on Facebook and Twitter?!  That would be an interesting point of view.  Have you asked him?

Everything is sacred.

I got to admit Siamack

Unfortunately you are right and there is going to be a bloody war. Islamist simply won't listen to reason. It is their way or highway and the only thing that register in their narrow minds is massive force.

I got to admit Siamack

Unfortunately you are right and there is going to be a bloody war. Islamist simply won't listen to reason. It is their way or highway and the only thing that register in their narrow minds is massive force.

Sia

this was raw, and extremely difficult to digest; sadly, it is true...

As seen on YouTube

Some people act as though this Islamist cutthroats' republic is a democracy gone amok and now needs to be talked back into being  what it was. News flash, the true face of the Islamist republic has been is and will be till the day it is overthrown, exactly as seen on YouTube. Forget velvet anyting with this Islamist cutthroats' republic. Welcome to reality. 

Clearheaded  write-up as usual, wish your cut to the chase was infectious.

Green Movement IS not about just kicking ass

I agree with your general theme and opinion about the challenges that Iranians face against this corrupt pseudo military Islamic state.

However I disagree with your 'opinion' that the green movement that was clearly visible both pre and post the coup had nothing to do with Mousavi or more importantly the event post the coup were merely some sort of exercise in testosterone release. This opinion of yours which by the way you wrote it came across as your way of making it sound like a fact is wrong -- of course in my opinion :-)

Bravo

Siamack jaan

You analysed it so well bravo!!