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Supreme President Khamenei
20-Mar-2009
The decision of former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami not to seek the presidency again has revealed how muddled Iranian presidential politics now is. In trying to sort out this muddle, the most important thing to keep in mind is not so much who will be elected, but what that choice will reveal about the intentions of the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Unfortunately, the most likely outcome will be continuing transformation of the Islamic Republic from a civil government into a garrison state in which the military plays a major role in determining political and economic matters.
Who will actually win the vote is unpredictable, but not because Iran is democratic. Ayatollah Khamenei, who is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, oversees the agencies that will run the election: the guardian council and the ministry of interior, which supervise the electoral process, and the Basij militia and Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), which unofficially control the ballot-boxes and the vote-counting process.
Recent surveys show that the increasing unpopularity of the current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, stems primarily from his economic policies. Although oil prices reached an all-time high in 2008, unemployment and inflation (now 31%) are out of control and the government is facing a $44bn budget deficit. The public sector accounts for roughly 80% of the economy, and relies mostly on now-plummeting oil revenue, while Iranian banks face a credit crisis, with Mahmoud Bahmani, the governor of the Iran Central Bank, estimating total delinquent payments to be $38 billion.
But Ahmadinejad's unpopularity does not necessarily weaken his chances of being re-elected. A few months before the election, neither of the two main political currents, conservative and reformist, has settled on its candidate. Among the reformists now in the race, Mehdi Karroubi, the former speaker of the Majlis, is a declared reformist candidate. Mir Hossein Moussavi, a former prime minister, and Abdullah Nouri, a former interior minister, are also expected to enter the race.
On the conservative side, Ahmadinejad so far stands alone. But many conservatives also oppose his economic policies, as well as his management style. Conservative voices have repeatedly argued that supporting Ahmadinejad will cost them votes and reinforce the economic crisis.
Conservative disenchantment with Ahmadinejad is apparent in the current Majlis, which is predominantly conservative. The Majlis has rejected the government's economic bills, and has repeatedly impeached or challenged Ahmadinejad's cabinet ministers.
Iran's main diplomatic challenge will centre on its nuclear program and relations with the United States. Since the president has no authority over these issues, any disagreement between the supreme leader and the next president will place the president in a difficult position with no real power.
In terms of domestic policy, the major challenge for the next president will be the economy. Over-reliance on oil revenues, the effect of longstanding international sanctions, and the reluctance of foreign companies to invest in Iran have exacerbated the economy's structural problems.
Perhaps one of the most significant elements in Iran's stagnation is that the Revolutionary Guards control a large portion of the economy, and are beyond the reach of government regulation. In order to manage the economic crisis successfully, any president must not only shift economic policy, but also amass enough political power to be able to thwart the intervention of the Revolutionary Guards and other organisations in economic policymaking.
Former President Khatami's initial decision to run for the post again grabbed the international community's attention. Yet a Khatami victory would not have guaranteed change. As president, he faced criticism from reformists for his failure to resist a range of powerful groups that sabotaged economic reform and improvement in Iran's relations with the west.
Khatami's organisational savvy had not improved much since then. So far, he lacks even a media platform for his faction. Reformist critics believe that in order to mobilise people it will not be enough just to campaign against Ahmadinejad. If a reformer is to win he must prove that he will be able to sway Iran's political structures toward a reform agenda.
But reformists ask: if the supreme leader does not even permit the Khatami faction to have a newspaper, would he really have allowed Khatami to become president? Even if any reformer does become president, will he be able to overcome his differences with the supreme leader?
Speculation about the outcome of the election is an interesting parlour game. But it should not distract us from the fundamentals of Iranian politics. The next president may have room to adjust economic or social policies. But, on the big issues of foreign policy, relations with the west, and the nuclear program, the identity of the president is not important. These issues will be decided by a man who is not running for office in June, but whose power is secure: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader.
Mehdi Khalaji is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on the role of politics in contemporary Shiite clericalism in Iran and Iraq. This commentary was first published in The Guardian.
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even the UN Called the 2000 USA elections a farce...
by luciferous (not verified) on Sun Mar 22, 2009 03:47 AM PDTبراساس اين نظر سنجي "محمود احمدي نژاد" 36/8 درصد ،"سيدمحمد
خاتمي" 28/4درصد ، "ميرحسين موسوي" 11/8درصد و "مهدي کروبي" 2/3درصد از مردم تهران را به سوي خود جلب کرده اند. Mr. Khatami spran away, how about Mr. Ghalibaaf? I´m afraid he has zero chnace. he presented his wife in the public. Imitating the "Free" western world. Not knowing or just ignoring that offering ladies is a purely western method of diplomacy and politics.
Supreme President Khamenei Ahmadinejad's unpopularity does not
by Lucifercus (not verified) on Sun Mar 22, 2009 03:35 AM PDTSupreme President Khamenei:
Ahmadinejad's unpopularity does not necessarily weaken his chances of being re-elected.
Since evry thing is relative. Also the popularity. So the actual president will be also the next one. because he is unpopular at all so is he it at least. The most unpopular being in the Islamic republic of Iran is the new black servant - of western Imperialism - in the white house. He spoke of changing. the heroical iranian nation knew: he means changing the methods, not aims. After his NOWROOZ message know it all nations in the world. he is even more unpopular than his ancesstor. That one spoke clealy out not because he was a dammy person. But because "they" hopped stil to be able move things with threaten and sanktions. This one works with sanctions and other technics. he follows, must follow, the same aims. poor kid one should say.
what brought the shah down.
by shirazie (not verified) on Sat Mar 21, 2009 09:01 PM PDTIn early 70's, inflation was rampant in Iran (due to Arab oil embargo). Then came actually unemployment. The shah had no idea what to do.
Everyone has a theory on why the Mighty "Shah of Shahs" was defeated. Mine is: The Iranian Oil workers went on strike.. that was the end shah's Money source.
Nicely written article shows that IRI is struggle with inflation and falling oil prices.
With President Obama's nonthreatening approach , The Mullah's for the first time are without an external enemy.
May be it is 1975 again. the top heavy IRI will collapse under its own weight.
Let's hope it will be like down fall of Romania & Soviet Union. only the top leaders will get trapped and be gotten ride of.
I wonder if anyone will accept their political asylum applications (i.e Sudan Only)
Controlled Economy (vs open market economy)
by ./. (not verified) on Sat Mar 21, 2009 09:53 AM PDTChina has proven that a controlled economy works much better than the so called "open market economy" such as in US. As we now witness, the USA is going down not because its people are bad, but because when you have an open and unregulated economy there will be those "evils" who will take advantage and destroy life for others (while they themselves get rich !!! Look at AIG). Therefore, Iran having a controlled economy would be prefered . You can argue about whether military or someone else should control it, but that is a different subject of discussion.
regards...
Gee when the Mullah's OWN the ballot boxes
by Judge Wayne (not verified) on Fri Mar 20, 2009 04:55 PM PDTit will be the will of the mullahs and not the will of the Iranian people...
Case in point the USA 2000 Presidential Elections were tampered with by computer hackers....and NO CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT.... even the UN Called the 2000 USA elections a farce...
So?
by Landanneshin (not verified) on Fri Mar 20, 2009 02:20 PM PDTNotwithstanding the dire economic position that all the near bankrupt Western countries who have been bombardig Iran for it's corruption and mismanagement for decades,find themselves in,one is obliged to ask the author what is it that you want to say but for some reason can't or won't say?
This question is not raised in order to defend the indefencible about the endemic economic mismanagement in Iran, or the dominant position of the armed forces in the daily affairs of the country.Let me explain:
Of all the "Iran" writers who now live in the United States, the author is much better positioned than many to know that since 1981, Iran has been literally a surrounded country; economically,diplomatically and millitarily. This siege mentality is as old as the average age of the majority population of Iran.
You now live in "super power" country that the day after the horrific events of Sept. 11th. its whole sofisticated system became so panic-stricken to the core that nobody knew where to hide the President, let alone what to think next.
As a result of that, two countries were occupied,one illegally-according to the UN, thousands were arrested around the world, hundreds were tortured and secretly moved to the most notorious concentration camp since the fall of Nazi Germany, and internally, a set of new security and intelligence apparatus were set up. etc.etc.
That was the reaction of the most confident nation on earth. Now, how do you expect a country to react that was invaded on behest of all the Western powers and fought the invaders almost single handedly? And even 25 years on, the US proxy in the region is openly talking of the need to attack it!
Now,regardless of your political position, do you expect them to just come out in Tehran and sing a Beatles love song and wear a Tee-shirt with a Make Love Not War written on it?
With respect to the author, let me hazzard a guess! What you really want to say to your Western audience is don't waste your time on the coming elections in Iran,but if you want change,go for the leader's neck.
I suspect Mr. Obama's Norouz message must have dismayed you!
Autistic Democracy
by Fred on Fri Mar 20, 2009 01:39 PM PDTThis sort of reality based write-up is highly countercultural to some shatting their carefully coiffed image of the Islamist republic as an embryonic democracy.