The Prerequisites of Escalation

Mousavi's "five points" still carry much weight

Balatarin
Share/Save/Bookmark

The Prerequisites of Escalation
by Masoud Shafaee
27-Feb-2010
 

In his 17th statement, Mir-Hossein Mousavi made five specific points that he deemed necessary to start the political (and national) reconciliation process. The proposal lead to a noticeable uptick in talk about the need for national "unity"in the weeks leading up to 22 Bahman, and also garnered much attention from Iranian intellectuals and dissidents alike. Ultimately, the regime's more radical elements reemerged and silenced the chatter before the security apparatus prevented a strong opposition showing on the revolution's 31st anniversary. But Mousavi's "five points," as they have come to be called, still carry much weight. Generally, they are:

  1. Government accountability for post-election violations
  2. Legislation of new election laws that would safeguard reform-minded candidates from regime's current vetting process
  3. Release of all political prisoners
  4. Freedom of the press and a more objective IRIB and other state-run media
  5. Freedom of assembly, as guaranteed by the Islamic Republic's constitution

Were these five conditions to be met, the Green movement would arguably have the breathing room it needs to mobilize and begin the long process of transforming Iranian society. For if anything became apparent in the weeks leading up to and after the June election, it is that Iran has undergone an awakening. The repression that the above five grievances capture has simply prevented the social movement's aspirations from coming to fruition.

Therefore, perhaps an alternative frame can be adopted to view Mousavi's five points. As a recent Tehran Bureau profile wonderfully captures, the reluctant leader of Iran's opposition has matured into a rather shrewd, cautious, and patient figure since the late 1970s. Behind the caution, however, Mousavi likely recognizes that the regime has reached a point of no return, and is only prevented from fully voicing such a sentiment publicly by current circumstances. The tyranny, the executions, the outright fascism -- all of it is, to quote Mousavi himself from an interview on the eve of 22 Bahman, an outgrowth of the "revolution's failures" and the "roots of tyranny and dictatorship" that persist from the reign of the Shah. These are damning (and yet still very measured) words from one of the Islamic Republic's own founding fathers.

Thus, seeing the regime in this light gives Mousavi's five points new significance. The demands may not only be five steps that the regime must take in order to rescue the country from its current crisis, but moreover, five blatant and particularly egregious shortcomings that the regime will likely be unwilling to address, thus inevitably escalating the conflict between the Greens and the regime. For in the wake of the June coup d'etat, if one thing has become clear it is that those currently in control will never meet any such conditions, even if moderate voices within their camp plead otherwise. Political calculus has been replaced by megalomania, with the possibility of reconciliation falling victim.

And so if these five points are instead five tests that the regime must fail before the confrontation escalates, the news emerging this week from the Expediency Council and Assembly of Experts -- both bodies chaired by Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- is indeed very telling. First, the Council began considering a proposal being pushed by Rafsanjani and Mohsen Rezaei that would take away the Guardian Council's vetting role away from it and instead give it instead to a new "National Election Committee" of sorts, which would conveniently be under Rafsanjani's supervision in the Expediency Council. (Ironically, the proposal to revise the country's election laws was made to Supreme Leader two years ago, after which he ordered for new election plans to be drawn up.)

Make no mistake: this would essentially be a first step in meeting the second condition laid out in Mousavi's 17th statement. Were the changes to the vetting process be enacted, the Guardian Council would no longer be able to disqualify candidates from running for president or parliament, as it did when it disqualified all but four candidates from running in the 2009 presidential election.

The chances of the plan being enacted appear slim. With the regime still reeling from the aftermath of the June elections and still off-balance while facing a resilient opposition going forward, it would have no reason to suddenly invite more political opposition in Majlis through freer elections in 2012. Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the ultra-conservative Kayhan daily and someone who is regarded as being close to Khamenei has already come out on the attack, stating that any proposal to create such an electoral commission would be "against the Islamic Republic's constitution."

No sooner than the proposal was being discussed, more divisive conservative rhetoric emerged from the other body Rafsanjani chairs, the Assembly of Experts. In a statement reported by Fars News, the Assembly allegedly declared that the regime's patience with the opposition "ended in December after sedition leaders missed numerous chances to repent and return into the gown of the revolution." Khamenei, for his part, has reiterated the statement's pronouncement in his own declaration, stating that those who still do not accept the result of the June presidential election "would be disqualified from participating in the Islamic system."

The obstacles lying in the way of revising the regime's election laws aside, the other four points from Mousavi's 17th statement have gone unheeded as well. Saeed Mortazavi, though implicated by Majlis in the Kahrizak torture-murders, remains a free man. Rather than having political prisoners freed, the country recently saw the greatest wave of arrests sweep dissidents and reformists since late June and early July. Meanwhile, state-controlled media remains entirely propagandized while any questions regarding citizens' right to freely assemble were surely answered by the enormous security presence deployed on 22 Bahman.

Not even appearing to consider the grievances, the regime seems bent on acting counter to each of Mousavi's five points. Despite the intentions of some delsoozan (or "heartbroken" moderate conservatives), any previous promise of political reconciliation appears dead or moribund at present. Instead, the crisis seems destined to continue indefinitely, and with both sides refusing to back down, Mousavi's five grievances may come to be prerequisites that the regime must unequivocally reject before the opposition can decide on what will be the uprising's next phase.

(c) Masoud Shafaee  |  www.thenewestdeal.org

Balatarin
Share/Save/Bookmark

Recently by Masoud ShafaeeCommentsDate
Stuck between brothers
-
Nov 03, 2011
As Saudi Troops Enter Manama, Tensions With Iran Rise
1
Mar 16, 2011
Clear Shift
4
Feb 21, 2011
more from Masoud Shafaee
 
Darius Kadivar

Si J'etais President ... ;0)

by Darius Kadivar on Wed Mar 03, 2010 02:49 PM PST


  •  
AMIR1973

amgw4, Mousavi is another IRI supporting thug--you know the type

by AMIR1973 on Tue Mar 02, 2010 04:26 AM PST

Do you actually think Iranians don't know that the Murdering Regime came to power in 1979 precisely through riots and the setting of fires to theaters, cafes, and banks (acts which killed hundreds of innocent Iranians)? Try your dime store propaganda elsewhere IRI cyber groupie. It won't sell here.


  •  
amgw4

Ohhhh, now that riots & incitement failed to gain him power

by amgw4 on Tue Mar 02, 2010 02:06 AM PST

he wants to "reconcile." boroh gomshoh. power hungry egomaniac.


  •  
MM

benross and masoud

by MM on Sun Feb 28, 2010 09:57 AM PST

benross,

It sounds to me like you are advocating a referendum for a change; to what(?) needs to be decided later.  If so, this amounts to giving a blank check to someone to be filled later.  IRI will never go for it while they are firmly in power.

Masoud,

Mousavi's proposals, while significant, do not address the supervision of the clergy over the judiciary and the legislature.  Meaning that if a law is being considered for equality of the sexes, the clergy can veto it because the law is against Shari'a, ditto in the courts system.  The current religious councils and VF will make sure of conformity to Shari'a.  All the current Mousavi/Karroubi/Khatami/Hashemi, so called reformers, still firmly believe in the basic principles of Khomeini, VF and the Islamic Republic.

So, again, as long as the basic rules below are not put in place, I do not think reform amount to much.

* separation of religion and government

* full implementation of the charter of the human rights

--------------------------------------------------------

For examples of devotion of the current reformers to Khomeini, See, e.g.,

Karroubi in Feb 26th, 2010  interview: I loved the Imam and I still love him.  Yes, he is a model and an example for me. He was a devout cleric,….

Khatami in Jan 6th, 2010  interview: We, therefore, endeavored to obtain a novel experience of religion and to gain independence…….  

Mousavi on Khomeini on June 12th, 2009 interview: Imam Khomeini always welcomed change. He usually accepted changes and then tried to manage them……..OHHHH REALLY


  •  
Ali9 Akbar

sorry folks the game is over...

by Ali9 Akbar on Sun Feb 28, 2010 07:51 AM PST

and the winner will be the one who has the ability to control the Iranian Military


  •  
David ET

donbale nokhod siah

by David ET on Sun Feb 28, 2010 07:16 AM PST

1- All 5 Mousavi's demands have categorically been violated and rejected by the regime, so no need to wait for that to happen as your article suggests!

2- Also Rafsanjani's so called attempt to take the election supevision from one group of IR to another is nonsense also! (sare kaar gozashtan)

IR did not even tolerate the candidate that Supreme Council approved (Mousavi) and ended up doing a coup . So issue was not even supreme council, but intolerance of regime of any reform, even by candidates that they approved.

These shows by Rafsanjani et al are just to make people distracted of real issue and attempts to save "their" regime. 

Sorry but your article makes absolutely no sense to me and is simply falling for the same nonsense wishful thinking and distractions that have been presented for 31 years again and again and again!   

in khane az paaybast viraan ast 

 visit: www.iransecular.org


  •  
benross

Dear MM

by benross on Sat Feb 27, 2010 05:11 PM PST

I don't think the referendum discusses those issues. The society, as a whole would discuss those issues. And that is the whole point of such agenda. But the process itself doesn't specify the options. It only specifies the process. In other words, if you are looking for a solution that has the highest possibility for IRI to avoid the violence (or more accurately, the least power base to resort to it!) is a process that is open to the idea of legitimacy of IRI, only willing it to be demonstrated in a free referendum on the matter.

I won't speculate on practical matters any further since we are now in the stage of making referendum a public discourse. It's just too early for any speculation. But as you may have noticed in discussions here in IC, the main issue that aborts any fruitful exchange of ideas is the accusations of being pro IRI overtly or covertly. If this whole bunch are sent to vote for IRI constitution in this process, and can't blame us for taking away any rights of them, the rest of us can develop ideas about the option on our side in a more healthy environment.

This is as much as I can explain at this point. Not because I'm hiding anything, but because it is unknown how a public discourse will evolve.

Separation of church and state, and the charter of human rights are not new inventions. The issue is how to get there.


  •  
MM

benross - please elaborate how!

by MM on Sat Feb 27, 2010 03:57 PM PST

Aside from resorting to violence, I am interested to know how IRI will accept a referendum that at least has the two key elements that have been discussed inside and outside of Iran, namely:

* separation of religion and government

* full implementation of the charter of the human rights


  •  
benross

referendum

by benross on Sat Feb 27, 2010 03:02 PM PST

Right now, the idea of reforming IRI constitution, or even interpreting its terms more moderately, is considered an attack to its foundation. This is as much a dilemma for Mr. Mousavi as it is for others.

The national reconciliation starts with providing legitimacy to a process. That is, a referendum on electing one of two constitutions of contemporary Iran, and based on that legitimacy, to proceed with reforming the constitution, in any way it is the will of people. The agenda of referendum doesn't require anybody to be against IRI constitution. It requires a will to get support of democratic will of people for carrying out any reform, in any framework.

This is not only the interest of IRI opponents. It's the interest of anybody who wants to live in this land in peace, for generations to come.


  •  
default

Realistic and correct

by saadat bahar on Sat Feb 27, 2010 07:02 AM PST

Thank you Sir for an excellent piece setting out the strategic context of the situation. I believe your general evaluation of the balance of power between the two sides (i.e. the reformists and the conservatives) is realistic and correct. And on that basis, you have properly explained the format that the political process is, and will be, going through.

Your effort is also significant politically because, in the current situation, it is necessary to establish the parameters, the speed and the direction of the Green Movement. The Green leadership, with its reformist and non-violent programme, now seems to have this objective on its agenda. Also, focusing on the five points will help to bring all the main political trends under one flag and to organize their ranks.

I would like to draw the attention of the Gentleman to an article by Mr. Hashem Hedayati, of the Mojahedin-e Enghelab Organization. I think it is a good start in evaluating the factors that need to be taken into account in order to take the discussion forward. You might want to think and write about some of the issues he has raised in that article. (//rahesabz.net/story/9104/)

At the same time, may I say that I disagree with you on one point. I believe the failure of the state to meet the five Green conditions will not necessarily lead to an escalation in the next phase. The next phase, I feel, is one where the Greens will consolidate politically and organizationally. The five demands are the long-term objectives of the movement and they could change the face of politics beyond recognition in Iran.
Respectfully yours


  •  
Fred

Too little, way too late

by Fred on Sat Feb 27, 2010 05:19 AM PST

As long as the former two terms Prime Minister of the Islamist Rapist Republic during whose term thousands of Iranians were massacred in his regime’s prisons insists on “reform” within the context of the IRR’s constitution, the Head Rapist Khamenei will trump him with his Article 110 of the same constitution bestowing  absolute power to him.

It is way past the time for charlatan Ali Shariati disciples to save their Islamist regime, way too many Iranian men, women and children have been raped, maimed, tortured and murdered.  


  •