DICTATOR

Mehdi, be careful ...

In your comment you say "In 1979 they got rid of a perfectly good leader".  This is a big "Taboo" with the "Rozeh Khoons", you might get a "Pay Cut" from IRI.

Mehdi, I think everyone on this site knows the nature of your comments, no need for softening the tone by trying to compare Akhoond Seyed Ali to the Shah.  You see we're all Iranians on this site, but we're not as gullible as you assess, most of us actually read between the lines in your comments.

So, as I was saying, you might get a reprimend and a pay cut from Vezarat Etelaat or Ershad, or whatever other Regime Organ you report to.

Payandeh Iran, our Ahuraie Fatherland  

Khamenei will not compromise?

Depending what position you are taking, you can change the concept as you see fit. For example, this article states that Mr. Khamenei wants absolute obedience. I will argue that it is irrelevant what he wants.

Here is one obvious misinterpretation that is normally done by the opponents of the Islamic Republic: lack of people trust.

There are generally two major groups that opposition are made of, those who want direct involvement of West to push the Islamic Republic aside, and those who want indirect involvement of West to push Islamic Republic aside. Neither take into account the will and wants of citizens of Iran.

To get back to writer's point before this comment become too long, similar to any regime, if people sit quietly and allow the powerful take complete charge, people lose ground and the powerful will do all in his/her power to keep the status quo. When people reach certain political maturity, then the government will need to respond or go. This has been my thinking and perhaps very similar to the current reformists in Iran. The equation is people vs government in a constant struggle to modify the ground to their benefit.

In the future, once this becomes established as a political culture, there would be shared ground that government and people can both benefit and allow system and people to trust one another more. We are not there and it will take some time. We will get there however.

Mr. Khamenei has no choice but to compromise, regardless if all the state officials surrender to him or not. The system needs to balance with people. We will see more of civil rights and relaxed laws (milder and more towards the center) along with officials who speak softer and try to buy people's trust. This will either take place or they'll go. This is the message from a politically aware and out spoken reformist crowd.

If time permits I will write a piece about the changes in Iranian society in the near future.

"You don't understand!" That's usually what some "khavass" say!

Everything is sacred.

You don't understand!

Khamenei is not as free as you think in making decisions. What you don't understand is that a leader needs some sort of support in order to continue to stay a leader. You are totally incapable of understanding that Khamenei could not simply order an issue to free this and free that. To take an extreme example, he could not order that "hejab" is not mandatory for women. He would be killed! Take that extreme and work it out with less extreme issues. The "system" is a lot more complex than you realize. People can be manipulated and turned against him quite easily. That is how Iranians were manipulated in 1979 to get rid of a perfectly good leader. People are not all educated and smart. The way they judge a leader is not even near to how you and I judge a leader. Majority of Iranian will be fooled by a "namaz" and will not accept 10 PhD's as reason for capability of a leader.

The fact is that the opposition, such as Mousavi, have not offered any solution which would actually work. They just nag and whine in general terms - nothing specific. Just like Republicans and Democrats in the US - they just oppose anything the other side does. But we see that when Dems come to power people get sick and tired and when Reps come to power, the SAME thing! Their objections look good only when the other side is in power. This is because people in general are very shallow in their evaluations. Same is true about Iran.

Mousavi can't back down anymore. He's stuck!

Interesting article.  Earlier Mousavi had said he is ready to die "like others".  So in essence he has already drank the martydom syrup! No way he is going to say ok people it's now time to get back to "normal" life and embrace this regime.

He is not against the Islamic Republic as he has said from the beginning.  If he says let's forgive and forget he is simply going to be forgotten and embarassed like a spine less man.  I don't believe that'll happen.

Khamenei said from day one that the "responsibility" of the bloodshed is with green.  So they're going to kill and blame the green and the West.  We'll have to wait and see what'll happen in 22 Bahman.

Everything is sacred.

mahmoudg

I agree that Khamenei and IRR must go. What I don't get is the bit about Western Court. Why do Iranians need Western Courts? In fact an Iranian court will be much more acceptable to people.

If IRR indeed goes then I think people want to try these guys in Iran. Why surrender Iran's rights to a Western Court? If you saw the US Supreme Court's recent decisions you will find them far from just. West is not and has never been our friend. The whole regime was brought to power by British and US. Why would you think they will help us now? If they do it will be a temporary alliance at best. If we look to West to save us we will be doomed. We're on our own.

Rigid

Khamenei is old and rigid. His mind has lost the ability to adapt. This is why nature or you may say god made us mortal. Because at some point people get so rigid it is time for them to go. Khamenei has to go. Now this will happen one way or other. It would behoove him to move on leading to gradual change. Unfortunately for him and the Islamic Republic he won't. The result will be an overthrow of the whole regime.

It has happened many times in history. The old and rigid fall to young and flexible; the young then get old. That is why we need democracy without VF. Then we can replace dinosaurs without bloodshed.

Let's hope Mousavi is smart ...

Dr. Bagherzadeh, thank you for another informative article.  Let's hope Mousavi realizes that he is at a historical junction and that his decision and actions at this point will have crucial consequences on not only the future of Iran but also on his personal survival.  In my opinion if he tries to passify his followers in any way he will first become a non-entity as Mohammad Khatami became in 2000 and at a later stage of the game, the regime will frame him and his key followers with some conspiracy theory and assassinate or execute them. 

If history has taught us anything, it is that one can not negotiate with an "Akhoond", shah learned this the hard way in 1342 and then again 1357.

To be a successful top level politician, Mousavi should study and use the recent experiences in our history.  Namely at this stage, he has to pay attention to the history and events of 1357 and learn from Khomeini.  As much as I despise the traitor Khoemeini, I have to admit he stood firm in his positions throughout 1356-1357 and this was the key to his success.  Of course, Mousavi is not of the same poltical stature as Khomeini yet and also does not have the backing of BBC, Mi6, Cyrus Vance, Jimmy Carter, etc., what he does have is hundreds of thousands if not millions of awakened, passionate, inteligent, tech. savvy youth.  I hope he values what he has and makes the right startegical and tactical decisions.  Thanks again sir.

Payandeh Iran, our Ahuraie Fatherland.

Khamenei and the Islamic Republic must go

No doubt that the Overwhelming majority of the Iranians want Seyed Ali Gheda to be brought to justice.  With it a swift and just action (via a court of Western Law) for all those who were complicit with this regime in the last 30 years, and compelete removal of the regime.  The Islamic republic MUST be replaced by what will be chosen in a referendum by the people.

Unbending yet fragile

Thank you for another sober assessment. You are correct that Khamenei will not compromise the slightest bit. He expects Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami and the like to surrender completely and declare their loyalty to him.

This inflexibility is going to make the regime more vulnerable since it will only further enrage the opposition and worsen the existing crisis. Khamenei & Co have closed all avenues for a peaceful resolution which will inevitably lead to further radicalization of the opposition and greater violence in the streets.

The longer this crisis continues, the moderates within the regime will get weaker and more irrelevant. On the other hand calls for a secular democracy will become louder and stronger within the protest movement.

khamenie is simply not fit to rule

simple as that.  i have stated my position very clearly, VF stays but ith supervisory role.  it can be a group of 5-7 people or one person.

all other problems like AN and cabinet plus freedoms of speech and economic recovery are secondary to that.

khamenei has ruled 20 years already and only recently since elections did people in iran understand he is too extreme and uncompromising.  he should gracefully bow out.

من طالب ملثی خموشم

Daneshjoo

من طالب ملتی خموشم
از دست نفس کشان بجوشم

در کسوت عالمان دینم
بهتر زخودم کسی نبینم

اله و علی، حدیث و قران
ابزار منند و جمع یاران

با دوز و کلک، ریا و تزویر
من خلق خدا کشم بزنجیر

گیرم به شکنجه اعترافی
تا جلوه کنم صادق و صافی

فرمانبر من وزیر و سردار
هر حق طلبی کشم سر  دار

من روی زمین جای خدایم
محمود می زنه بوسه به پایم

هر کس نکنه به حرف من گوش
من می کُشم و خاک می کنم روش

گر ظالم و جابرم بدانند
فتواست که حکم من بخوانند

گر حرمت دین بدادم از دست
باکم نبود، که قدرتم هست

وقتی تو  میای به بارگاهم
یک بوسه بزن به جای پایم

مشعوف می شم ز چاپلوسی
ملت تو عزاس من تو عروسی

حالا تو بگو که من کی هستم
من دوزخی یا بهشتی هستم؟