VIEW

Abyss

attacking Iran "surgically" [exaggerated] followed by an "invasion" [cake walk] year(s) later will turn Iran and the area into an abyss from which the World wont recover from for several decades. They may very well turn Iran into rubbles, decimate Iranian nation by 100's of thousand [if not millions], but surely the battle in any form/by any mean will continue.

Now, Brooking institute can shove that report into their arse "literally", furthermore some people should wake up from playing "mosh-e mordeh", nobody is buying that crap anymore and as for the clip, it's horseshit.

one word comes to my mind when thinking about it; "abyss"!  

note: sanctions in itself is an act of war.

Acceptable risk for who???

The Wall street or those mothers and fathers who will lose their sons and daughters and the innocent Iranians that may lose their lives or livelihoods in this game that is being played by Brooking institute?

"At a time when Iran's unemployment is high"

Iran may just find a very affective way to employee those young folks by sending them to the front lines if they don't already volunteered on their own. As it has proven in Iraq and Afghanistan, when you don't have jobs or any prospect for a feature, you might as well go and take a few of those invaders with you, right?

"This is not like the Iran-Iraq war where you can fool the people, and where the foe is Saddam, an mad evil butcher who invaded Iran first"

Well tell this to those folks who lived in Khoramshar, Abadan, Ahavaz and few other cities who had to pack up what they could in a hurry and get out of dodge (if they could in time of course). Or is it possible that few of us were fooled that Saddam was not that "evil butcher" and was not responsible for attacking and invading Iran??!!!

"Israel's likely attack on Iran will be surgical by air, using carefully placed bombs (as careful as one can be when dropping bombs) to take out a specific facility, not to attack the civilian population"

Their last "carefully placed bombs" in Gaza and Lebanon proved to cause mass civilian casualty so I would not quite be banking on their surgical accuracy or their good will nature towards the Muslim world. Plus, why would not any Iranian see any attack on their home land by Israel as an act of war, thus beg to retaliate in kind.

"Israel's attack is not an invasion, so that Iranians cannot justifiably become all that outraged about it, given that their unpopular government provoked it really"

Really? Is that what Brooking instituted say and if so would they apply that logic to any nation?

"We very very very rarely if ever stand up for or against anything" True, but as Saddam, the Shah (and hopefully soon Khamenie) found it out that there are that there are those very very very rare case that Iranians will actually stand up.

"Once again a clear as crystal example of how if we were a democracy, and respected in the world because we would mind our own business and focus on our own internal betterment (rather than the ill-fitting attempt to save the Palestinians from the Israelis), and instead of proliferating a nuclear middle east we could instead advocate for India and Pakistan to give up theirs."

Well the example is not as clear as crystal. Iranians need and must work towards democracy for sure. But the notion that democracy means "mind our own business" is as flawed as tyranny means the opposite. US and most of the Europe have had democracy and they make a business out of minding other nation's business. And while advocating, lets not forget about Israel that must also give up its nuclear bombs just as India and Pakistan.

Mehrdad

Brookings Report Shows risk is acceptable

According to the Brookings Institution's report on the game, the fact that the US becomes a Persian Gulf police, is actually more of a relief to the rest of the world, than a concern. With all the quagmires the US is in, this is just one more to add to the list and with Iraq winding down, and a general command and control of Afghanistan starting to take hold, having the Navy patrol the other Gulf Coast (ha ha) isn't that big a deal.

Apparently.

The big test that seems to be leaning toward a bluff by Iran, is whether or not when pressed to engage militarily against the US and Israel and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab world, Iran will actually risk the consequences in and outside of Iran and take on a military action that will cost it more than it would gain.

At a time when Iran's unemployment is high, the general economy is in a shambles, all with reduced oil revenue, poking the US and Israel in the eye with a nuke development is a very risky act. Committing young Iranians who don;t like them to begin with, to a long war with a foe that Iran instigated to attack, by threatening them with the Nukes, might not be as easy as the Mullahs tend to think.

This is not like the Iran-Iraq war where you can fool the people, and where the foe is Saddam, an mad evil butcher who invaded Iran first.

Israel's likely attack on Iran will be surgical by air, using carefully placed bombs (as careful as one can be when dropping bombs) to take out a specific facility, not to attack the civilian population. The only negative outcome is outrage by the Iranians killed if the attack goes wrong and a large group of civilians get killed by accident.

Israel's attack is not an invasion, so that Iranians cannot justifiably become all that outraged about it, given that their unpopular government provoked it really. 

The assumption that the entire country of Iran will "Rise up" against the US and so on is a lot of BS in my opinion. Iranians are survivors and follow the power wherever it tells them to go. We very very very rarely if ever stand up for or against anything. 

A sad sad sad state of affairs. Once again a clear as crystal example of how if we were a democracy, and respected in the world becasue we would mind our own business and focus on our own internal betterment (rather than the ill-fitting attempt to save the Palestinians from the Israelis), and instead of proliferating a nuclear middle east we could instead advocate for India and Pakistan to give up theirs.

All of this sucks to be sure, but it s first and foremost because we do not rise to the many occasions we have had the chance to.

Very ture!

If Israel attacks Iran, then it would be solely responsible for what ever death and destructions comes as a result.

Eroonman, assumption is all based on that Iran's capabilities and will to retaliate and cause serious harm is limited to only hot air which could certainly be true. But if it proves otherwise, then the West will have yet another quagmire on their hand that will affect the region if not the world in much greater way then Iraq or Afghanistan ever did. Not to mention all the innocent people on both sides, specially Iran that will have to pay and the responsibility for yet another aggressive and illegal war would be solely on Israel that can add to its portfolio for the number of war it has started since its inception

Mehrdad

End result?

eroonman, Nobody really knows!

It is Very Easy to Attack Iran...

This article is merely a wishful biased variation on the Brookings Institution War game simulation that was conducted on December 14, 2009, in which the reactions and counter reactions to Israel attacking Iran's Nuke factories, was analyzed. (click to read this report for yourselves)

End result?

When (not if) Israel attacks Iran, the US will pretend it did not know about it, and will scold Israel publicly but with no real consequences, as usual. Israel will have to fly over Saudi Arabia which will make it appear that SA was aware of it and this will make Iran angry. Iran will attack Israel weakly with it's not-very-accurate missiles which will sail all over the place rarely hitting anything inside Israel. Iran will then also have Hamas and Hezbollah unleash thousands of rockets at Israel. Israel will defend itself by invading Lebanon (again) and put a stop to it. Iran will then launch missiles at Dhahran in SA to retaliate for allowing Israel to fly over it's airspace, and Iran will become polarized against the Arab world who don't want Iran to get a Nuke either. Iran will resort to threatening and trying to mine the straits of Hormuz, which will force the US to sail in and protect the oil on the tankers entering and leaving the Gulf. Which it has been wanting to do for years, anyway.

So, other than Iran becoming a greatly frustrated bitch, the impact of Israel attacking Iran is relatively negligible. Actually it mighht be a relief of the building uncertainty that exists now, as everyone in the region and out, have about what Iran could or would do if it ever gets a Nuke.

For us, this is yet one more example of a "Great Shame". Not only have Iranians failed to stand up and correct the wayward ways of an increasingly belligerent rogue government that has lost any sense of validity and priority of what Iranians want and need in this world today, but they will also be forced to accept and in some cases defend, a one-sided "in your face!" military defeat of historic proportions, that will no doubt be broadcast live on CNN. In HD. 3D-HD.

Take it off the table digeh!

Ya llah.

Very logical argument that makes sense to any sane person

But when was the last time that logic prevailed in US foreign policy if it did not suit the major power in US.

Mehrdad