Saddam Khamenei

Iran applies the Saddam method at the U.N.

Balatarin
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Saddam Khamenei
by Robert Haddick
21-Jun-2010
 

On June 9 the U.N. Security Council approved Resolution 1929 which imposes further sanctions on Iran for its lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). U.S. officials hope that the resolution, combined with follow-on sanctions imposed by the European Union and others, will encourage Iran to fully cooperate with the inspections or return to negotiations. Failing that, the White House hopes that the new sanctions -- which target Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missile effort, and its conventional military forces -- will disrupt and delay the country's nuclear and conventional military potential.

In remarks he made the same day, President Barack Obama agreed with the vast majority of analysts who hold out little hope that Iran's leadership will reverse course any time soon. That leaves the hope that sanctions will materially degrade Iran's nuclear and military programs. They might, but how will the international community know how much? From 1991 to 2003, Saddam Hussein's Iraq tormented U.S. policymakers with inspection-dodging and intelligence uncertainty. It looks like a new generation of U.S. officials is about to experience similar taunting from Iran.

Iranian leaders have no doubt closely studied how Iraq resisted the Security Council's attempts to rein in its military potential after the 1991 war. In the early years of the Clinton administration, Iraq was in technical compliance with the post-war inspection requirements, but this cooperation was grudging, increasingly belligerent, and was eventually terminated. Iran's cooperation with the IAEA is already incomplete and in the wake of Resolution 1929, Tehran has threatened to reduce it further. Through a combination of humanitarian appeals, back-channel deal-making, and bribery, Iraq was able to wear down and divide the international consensus that existed after the 1991 war. Iran has similarly found friends in Turkey and Brazil and is likely to find more in the developing world (some of whom might have their own nuclear ambitions) in the period ahead.

The goal of a sanctions strategy is to avoid either a regional arms race or the necessity of a military response. We will know that sanctions have worked if the Iranian government returns to negotiations, settles the nuclear issue, and opens itself fully to IAEA inspections, but very few observers expect such an outcome. What will remain are the sanctions, which in turn will lead to Iranian resistance, inspections-dodging, an intelligence black hole, and ominous strategic uncertainty. In the case of Iraq, these factors led to war in 2003. Needless to say, this is not an experience U.S. policymakers will be anxious to repeat. Iran's leaders are aware of this understandable hesitancy and thus have little reason to fear suffering Saddam's fate.

What is ironic in retrospect is how effective sanctions against Iraq (combined with the four-day Desert Fox air campaign in December 1998) turned out to be at weakening the country's once-formidable military power. But no Western intelligence agency knew the full extent of this effectiveness until after 2003. When pondering the mystery of Iran's future nuclear capabilities, other countries in the region are unlikely to get much comfort from this precedent. From their perspective, prudence in the face of uncertainty will require additional defensive and retaliatory capabilities. Thus, sanctions are not likely to prevent an arms race in the region, an outcome the Obama administration hopes to avoid.

Now that Resolution 1929 is in place, what subsequent moves do Obama administration officials contemplate? Hopefully they've been studying Iraq's experience as well.

First published in ForeignPolicy.com.

AUTHORS
Robert Haddick is managing editor of Small Wars Journal.

Balatarin
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fooladi

Good article, agree with most of it.

by fooladi on Mon Jun 21, 2010 09:38 AM PDT

Similarities between khamenei and saddam on foreign policy t (for want of a better word) towards USA is very clear for anyone with minimal intelligence to see; (Examples: khamenei helped US in both afghanistan and pakistan and even kuweit by intelligence and logistics).

The fact is that khamenei , just like saddam is desparately trying to become pally with US and simply does not understand why US is taking and not giving! Just like saddam, khamenei is showing his anger and frustration by making lots of noise (ahamdi), just like naughty kids do.

But you know what happesn to naughty kids at the end of the day dont you? They get send to bed. The difference here is that this particular parent, USA, Hangs his Bastards of naughty kids by neck from the end of a rope,  as an example to the rest!

alas, these bastards of naughty kids, they never learn their lesson........


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Bavafa

Once again, Landan-Neshin beats me to the punch

by Bavafa on Mon Jun 21, 2010 09:32 AM PDT

This article has so many holes in it that I would like to borrow and use it as a colander. What baffles me is that how any publications ever could agree to publish such flawed article, unless it was published in the satire section or as an example for and teaching "flawed analysis"

Mehrdad


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Abarmard

Curious at terminology

by Abarmard on Mon Jun 21, 2010 09:16 AM PDT

1- "Iranian government returns to negotiations"

I am wondering if the author can enlightened us (and himself) of what it is that they want to "negotiate"? 

This is not how one uses the term negotiation, in any language I believe. This is called demand, cursing before the fight, spitting, or things in that nature.

2-"The goal of a sanctions strategy is to avoid either a regional arms race
or the necessity of a military response". Wrong. The goal is to gradually move to war. It's Western style tricks and marketing campaign before murdering and killing so they can live one more day in the oil rich region.

Not a very truthful article.


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Sargord Pirouz

A multi-flawed

by Sargord Pirouz on Mon Jun 21, 2010 08:26 AM PDT

A multi-flawed comparison.

Saddam = Rumsfeld's old boy. At least that's how dumb old Saddam saw it in '91! 

Khamenei, on the other hand, was never like that. 

How many times has being a friend of the US turned into the kiss of death? 


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Landan-Neshin

Get your facts right, Robert!

by Landan-Neshin on Mon Jun 21, 2010 06:31 AM PDT

It is becoming harder to understand the Americans by the day! Not that it was ever easy though.

 When the world was witnessing how the over confident US military were fleeing Saigon by desperately trying to hang on to their military helicopters on the roof of the US embassy, the ever faithful American commentators who never spoke of the futility of a bloody war thousands of kilometres away from home, suddenly found themselves in need of that great American con businesses, namely a shrinks sofa! Little did they know that their shrinks were in the same state of shock and mental depression that how could the might of the US Armed Forces be defeated by the rag army of the Viet Kong? That historic defeat led to a decade of self doubt and isolation because they didn't want to admit to the real reason why they lost in Vietnam.  It was not the might of the opposition but the weakest point in the American psyche that lost them the Vietnam war, and has in Iraq and will eventually in Afghanistan. What forever will daunt Americans and lose them real friends is this deluded and simplistic belief that they are invincible and whoever says 'thanks... but no thanks' is an evil force plotting to destroy their 'American dream'. Take the commentary above as an example, full of incorrect and simplistic comparisons that at best are made out of ignorance, and at worst another typical American attempt at spreading misinformation which can only appeal to their own nation, again out of the need to have an 'evil boogie-man' in mind poised to pounce on them and rob them of their beautiful life. For your information Robert, Saddam Hossein was put under the UN sanctions because of his invasion of Kuwait and committing genocide against its own people. Secondly, both the no-fly zones in the north and south of Iraq and the tight sanctions proved to be ineffective. Even then, it was not the world community that decided to invade Iraq,  it was Washington's feed of misinformation to its own people about the nuclear minded evil Saddam that prepared the US public opinion for committing an illegal act, closely copied by its ever obedient servant, the UK government. Not even Germany and France were prepared to believe Washington, let alone Moscow and Peking. If you wish to point out the outcome of UN members' disregard towards UNSC resolutions, I advise you to start with an objective review of Israel's total contempt for all UN resolutions since the 1967 war on the state of the occupied lands.It would also help to write a line or two as to why Israel, India and Pakistan, all nuclear armed bosom buddies of Washington are not even urged to sign the NPT treaty!  I am not writing this to defend or condemn any country's policies, all that is badly is missing in this ever expanding world of cyber media and needed to be said- especially after the Iraq invasion and the seemingly never ending Afghan war, is that if any person who fancies him/herself as a political commentator, should have the balls to say 'this is my political belief and here is my opinion on...'  To be fair to Iran, she has not invaded any country in 300 years, it has not gassed its own, or any other peoples to death, and despite all the ever growing allegations, accusations and misinformation about its 'nuclear ambitions',  the combined might of the western intelligence agencies have not come up with any convincing evidence to come even close to convincing the world opinion that Iran indeed is up to some naughty business.  Finally, it would be a very sad day for all of us if a handful of countries could be given the chance for deciding on a war/peace option purely based on their '"suspicions" and not their logic or evidence, when there are very clear examples of others who get away with murder with the blessing of the self-righteous powers.              

 


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