Real panic

Iran has a very big stake in this extraordinary history

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Real panic
by Robert Fisk
26-Apr-2011
 

Tweets from Tahrir, it is called, and I sighed with distaste. As a hater of Twitters and tweeters and Facebooks – in fact, the whole bloody internet culture that is unlearning the world and teaching everyone to misspell the simplest words – it was a natural reaction. But I was wrong. A selection of the thousands of tweets sent from Cairo’s Tahrir Square, it is deeply moving, a record of great courage, mostly by young people, facing Mubarak’s legion of goons and regime thugs. Let me give you a taste of it, misspellings and all.

“Now that’s a really big pro-Mubarak protest almost reaching Tahrir. From Galaa Street. Worrying” (from Amr Garbeia). “Real panic in tahrir. Square overrun by Mubarak demonstration” (Mo-ha-med). “I’ve seen spontaneous demos. The pro-demo isn’t one” (Mo-ha-med). “Pro-change demo has regrouped and is pushing back the pro-Mub demo... F… reporting. I’m going in” (Moha-med). “Is this mubaraks answer to us?? Sending thugs to throw stones at us!” (Nora Shalaby). On and on they go, shouting that Mubarak should be prosecuted. Indeed, he is now being prosecuted!

“Christians will pray in Tahrir tomorrow and we shall circle them and protect them as they have protected us” (Wael Khairy). “Foreign press says Mubarak fortune at 40 to 70 BILLION dollars. These must be returned to the people of Egypt!!!” (Peace and Justice). “A revolution organised by facebook, spread by twitter and organised by a guy working for Google. I LOVE OUR REVOLUTION” (Mahmoud Salem). A man called Hossam says: “Haha I ca c the police like mice looking scared from the windows of their ministry building ... a soldier now murmered to me we r with u ... can’t stop myself from crying. We will win.” Mubarak, of course, tried to cling on. “Mubarak is staying. The bastard is staying” (Mahmoud Salem). “Hostile reactions in Tahrir now. Some waving shoes, others spitting on screens and women have broken into tears” (Mosa’ab Elshamy) And then, from Gigi Ibrahim: “Mubarak doesn’t OWN Egypt!! Does he not understand the concept of a state?!”

Some of the tweets are very funny. “Mubarak to step down. I am not able to breathe” (Mohamed Hamama). The Egyptians pride themselves in getting rid of Mubarak faster than the Tunisians threw out Ben Ali. But they were getting blogs from Tunisia – how to bite on lemons to alleviate the tear gas – and later, interestingly, from Libya. An anonymous tweeter recalled her family’s reaction: “My dad hugged me after the news and said ‘Ur generation did what ours could only dream of. I’m sorry we didn’t try hard enough’.”

What strikes me is how the Egyptians mobilised in a quite different way from the Tunisians and –lucky for them – quite differently from the Libyans. Indeed, civil war has now stricken Libya and is in danger of striking Syria, too. The dictators all churn out the same idiotic nonsense: that the revolutions – the demands for freedom, liberty dignity – are all the result of foreign plots. Ben Ali said this; Mubarak said it (“foreign hands”); his vice-president Omar Suleiman talked of “bats in the night”. Qaddafi blames Al Qaeda and America (quite an alliance); Jordan’s king has blamed foreign plots, too, and Assad did exactly the same this week. Saleh in Yemen tells his people that the plot is Al Qaeda, Israeli and American. Ye gods! This is the kind of talk the Middle East had to listen to back in the Sixties. But today?

The Syrian regime is made of tougher stuff than Mubarak’s police scum – they are infinitely more brutal – and Baathist backbone probably has something of the Gaddafi about it. There is too much shooting in Syria. And the effects can spill over into Lebanon, reflecting a Shia (Alawi) and Sunni dispute in Syria. Assad has already tried to implicate Lebanon in his crisis, which is preposterous. I prefer not to think about Libya. First we say we won’t get involved. Then we bomb Qaddafi. Then we promise military “advisers” (soon, no doubt, to be kidnapped by Qaddafi’s sleeper cells) and now we’re doing a Waziristan and sending drones over Tripoli. What is this insanity that Cameron and Sarkozy – and Obama – have got themselves involved in?

But there’s a non-Arab country with a very big stake in this extraordinary history. It is called Iran. I was interested to see what the Iranian ambassador to Beirut, Ghadanfar Rokon Abadi – a highly intelligent diplomat whom I have known since 1996 – had to say on the subject when he spoke to Lebanese students at l’Université Saint-Joseph this week. He congratulated the Egyptians on their revolution but preferred to suggest that all was well in Iran’s Syrian ally. Here are his words on the Arab awakening: “The Egyptian revolution is the revolution of youth. Intellectuals followed them. But in Syria, it’s not the same. To be successful, a revolution needs two conditions: firstly, a mental desire to revolt and terrible economic conditions. These two conditions are not present in Syria.” Well, the ambassador could have fooled me! And how, I wonder, did the Iranian revolution come about in 1979? Did Iranians have a mental desire for revolt? Did they have terrible economic conditions? No, I rather think they wanted dignity and freedom – even if the current regime cruelly put down the 2009 post-presidential election demonstrations.

But Iran will watch Syria. Syria has a young president. But Iran’s leadership is made up of rather old men – not as old as Mubarak or Ben Ali, of course – but it’s the same dangerous equation: young people being told what to do by old guys. One of the reflections of the twitterers in Egypt was how proud they were that they could do what Tunisians did. We shall see what Syria holds for us in the coming days. But what if this spread to the east, beyond the mini-revolt in Iraqi Kurdistan to the very pillars of the Islamic Republic? Now that is the question many Arabs will be asking in the coming weeks. And if Iran remains peaceful, what if it loses its Syrian ally? And then what of the Palestinians? What if a million Palestinians in Gaza decided to walk “home” to the original “Palestine”. While the Israelis are worrying about the fate of their favourite dictators, it might be a good idea to consider what people power can do in Palestine.

First published in The Independent.

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Bavafa

Don't mean to interrupt the party here but...

by Bavafa on

1- If we are to believe Shah regime fell solely as a result and/or by the order of Carter admin, then that just by itself proves that Shah was nothing but a puppet, not worthy to stand on his own and deserved to fall

2- If we are to believe that most Iranians were doing fine financially and raising to middle class status, then very possibly you had not traveled outside of Tehran to see how people lived in smaller towns.

3- If we are to use the current system and the subsequent misery that has brought to Iranians since 1979 as an indication of a great system and regime prior to this, then perhaps this is all what we deserve.

Mehrdad


Roozbeh_Gilani

"facts" you want, here they are..

by Roozbeh_Gilani on

I take some time off my otherwise valuable work to supply you with some facts, just for you.

BTW, I am used to and amused by the personal insults throwm at me by little cyber warrier supporters of Iran's past and present tin pot dictators. Your personal attacks, like others , only betray your deep sense of anger and frustration. As we say in farsi "felan jat bayad bad joori misoozeh"!

Now all you have to do is to read and use some of the cognetive powers bestowed upon you by forces of evolution to decode the information.

Enjoy!

 "Despite the booming economy, many Iranians were still struggling economically. Agricultural output had been rising at a rate of 2.5 percent per year, but Iran's population had been increasing at 3 percent per year, and with the booming economy had come an inflation rate of from 30 to 50 percent a year. The government was managing the economy poorly...."

//www.fsmitha.com/h2/ch29ir.html

 

"the working class, faced with rising inflation and poverty, was restless; ... a campaign of mounting demonstrations..."

//www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2009/06/back-issues-the-last-days-of-the-shah.html

And islamist regime has not done so badly either!

"During the 1979-85 period, absolute poverty increased by 40 percent; ...
"

//www.nationsencyclopedia.com/economies/Asia-and-the-Pacific/Iran-POVERTY-AND-WEALTH.html

Admin: Please do not delete the comments of this "amirparvis whatever..." I want to keep this post and throw it into his or other shahollahi/hezbullahi faces next time they come here telling me about golden era of shah or khomeini! 

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Check your facts

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

Iran had the largest middle class in middle east in 1979.

Iran was the 9th largest economy in 1979 in the world, with the highest levels of employment and standard of living for most of the people.  Yes there were major layoffs going on , but it was far better than anywhere else.

 

Mullahs have a saying... which fits Roozbeh and the misinformation and warped logic of his/her post.

When there are so many Olags in the world... Why should I walk... I prefer to ride and let them carry me.

Roozbeh try a new approach, wth less blame and more facts, it's a sign of self respect.  Iran was Carter's Strategy and he nor his foreign policy master have admitted it since and even said it was no mistake, thie politics fooled and used a nation of unwise people in hopes for democracy/republic... as if a cosmetic change of government would remove the flaws of Iranians character... in the process Iranians removed the only thing that had made them a great and free country, the monarchy... which was working tirelessly towards restoring justice after hundreds of years of rule by unjust islam.

 

 


Roozbeh_Gilani

Actually your "intelligent ambassador friend" was right...

by Roozbeh_Gilani on

On Revolution thing!

Ordinary working people, the foot soldiers of every single revolution in modern  human history, from  French to Iraninan and anything in between,  do not risk life and limb for noble causes such as "liberty" or "human rights".  They only rise and drag down the ruler from his ivory  tower, when they have no jobs, not enough food for their kids, no decent healthcare or housing, whilst watching a tiny ruling minority "eating their cakes" in huge quantities.

In per 1979 monarchist Iran, Just like contemporary Islamist Iran, the Iranian economy was going through hyper inflation, making life more and more expensive for ordinary people, whilst a tiny minority were having great fun. This was happening at the same time as every single secular voice of dissent and opposition was brutaly suppressed with jail, torture show trials and executions. This powder keg of popular dissent and anger needed just a spark to explode into a revolution, which it did.

Your intelligent ambassador friendshould be back in Tehran right now working on preventing this spark from igniting instead of lecturing french speaking lebanese students. Unless he has dreams of "defecting" to US and "researching" some who cares what subject at some who knows what expensive , private US east coast college!

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."