If Iran dares mount a nuclear attack against Israel, Iran will be committing public, painful, mass suicide. Israel will respond, and the world will not be silent. Jerusalem knows that and, more importantly, so does Tehran. But in Tehran, so we are told from morning to evening, the "crazy" leadership could shuffle the deck.
And so Israel is threatening to bomb Tehran before it is too late, and many Israelis are even in favor of doing so. But the debate now underway, with terrifying seriousness, about the possibility of bombing Iran makes one suspect that it is actually here, in Israel, that lunacy prevails. The Iranian lunacy has yet to be proven; in Israel, it is already as plain as day.
Israel does not have rational leadership. Most of its moves cannot be logically explained. It is not logic that dictates continued construction in the territories; it is not logic that explains the war that the government of Israel has declared on the Palestinian Authority, without considering what will come instead. Neither is there logic in Israel's Hamas-strengthening moves, from the continued siege of Gaza to the release only of Hamas prisoners. There is no logic in continuing to imprison Marwan Barghouti; there is no logic in causing relations with Turkey to deteriorate, and there was no logic in Operation Cast Lead, which damaged Israel much more than it benefited it. There is also no logic in the fearmongering against the Arab Spring, which actually could ensure Israel a few quiet years from countries whose armies have crumbled, whose societies are preoccupied with domestic matters and whose regimes are on the rocks. And, of course, there is no logic in the continued occupation, which endangers Israel more than anything else.
Something else is guiding the Israeli leadership, and it is not called logic. Israeli public opinion also cannot be suspected for a moment of conducting itself rationally: Most Israelis believe that bombing Iran will spark a regional conflagration, and yet more Israelis favor such an attack than are against it. If that is sanity, what is insanity?
There is no way to rationally explain the beating of the drums of war against Iran. The risks of an Israeli attack are clear, and they are horrific. The danger of Iran using a nuclear weapon is nil, and yet Israel is playing with the fires of hell. Israelis, in fact, are saying they prefer a barrage of thousands of missiles - which will bring blood and destruction now - to the future imaginary risk of the suicidal weapon by "crazy" Iran; that they prefer system-wide insanity, with clear threats and open preparations for what could become an Israeli suicide mission.
Even if all the well-orchestrated statements, maneuvers and billowing smoke are only intended as threats, they lack all wisdom. A threatened Iran is also dangerous. It might launch a desperate preemptive strike on Israel.
Iran wants nuclear weapons to protect its regime. It saw former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and Libya's Muammar Gadhafi bombed and it understands - very logically, it should be said - that if it possessed a nuclear option, the world would not touch it, as it touches neither North Korea nor Pakistan. Iran also wants to be a regional power in the new Middle East, and it knows that one way of doing so is by means of centrifuges. It would be preferable, of course, if it did not get its wish, preferable that the world exert pressure so that it does not attain nuclear arms, but it is clear to all that no bombing will keep them from Iran forever.
The only conclusion from all of the above is that there is an illogical leadership in the Middle East, but it is not necessarily in Tehran. Fear, partly false fear, dwells in Jerusalem, the outcome of the fearmongering and demonization that is always present here, regarding everything from swine flu to the Iranian nuclear program. Alongside it is the megalomania that says that Israel can call the shots in the region as it sees fit. The mens' men who are threatening Iran now are the real cowards' cowards. The brave ones are in fact those who are trying to thwart the insanity, from former Mossad chief Meir Dagan to Interior Minister Eli Yishai.
First published in Haaretz.com.
AUTHOR
Gideon Levy is a Haaretz columnist and a member of the newspaper's editorial board. Levy was the recipient of the Euro-Med Journalist Prize for 2008; the Leipzig Freedom Prize in 2001; the Israeli Journalists’ Union Prize in 1997; and The Association of Human Rights in Israel Award for 1996. His new book, The Punishment of Gaza, has just been published by Verso Publishing House in London and New York.
Person | About | Day |
---|---|---|
نسرین ستوده: زندانی روز | Dec 04 | |
Saeed Malekpour: Prisoner of the day | Lawyer says death sentence suspended | Dec 03 |
Majid Tavakoli: Prisoner of the day | Iterview with mother | Dec 02 |
احسان نراقی: جامعه شناس و نویسنده ۱۳۰۵-۱۳۹۱ | Dec 02 | |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Prisoner of the day | 46 days on hunger strike | Dec 01 |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Graffiti | In Barcelona | Nov 30 |
گوهر عشقی: مادر ستار بهشتی | Nov 30 | |
Abdollah Momeni: Prisoner of the day | Activist denied leave and family visits for 1.5 years | Nov 30 |
محمد کلالی: یکی از حمله کنندگان به سفارت ایران در برلین | Nov 29 | |
Habibollah Golparipour: Prisoner of the day | Kurdish Activist on Death Row | Nov 28 |
I would like to comment on JJ's point
by ahosseini on Tue Nov 08, 2011 09:50 PM PSTIt appears as if Mashaei and Ahmadi’s side have come to some sort of compromise deal with US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The comments made in the US media (in particular VOA Persian) about Iran’s covert plan to assassinate the Saudi and Ahmadi’s gradual shift in political speeches clearly indicates such a compromise deal behind the scenes. It appears as if US, Israeli and Saudi Arabia are involved in some kind of cunning plans to weaken Khamenehei and strengthen the Ahmadi and Mashaei’s side. How they are going to achieve this I don’t know. It is obvious that they are giving him lots publicity in the media. You can clearly see that they are drawing a nice image of him (no longer a monkey) in the media which I think is not sufficient. By whatever means, if they succeed, from their point view, the best option, is a military attack by Israel. Ahmadinejad will come out as a victor and the nation will rally around him for quite a few years. “Democracy!” will prevail and they will all be happy. A civil war in Iran, like in Libya will not guarantee their victory. Iranians are far more sophisticated than Libyans.
I would like to comment on JJ's point
by ahosseini on Tue Nov 08, 2011 09:53 PM PSTIt appears as if Mashaei and Ahmadi’s side have come to some sort of compromise deal with US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The comments made in the US media (in particular VOA Persian) about Iran’s covert plan to assassinate the Saudi's embasador and Ahmadi’s gradual shift in political speeches clearly indicates such a compromise deal behind the scenes. It appears as if US, Israeli and Saudi Arabia are involved in some kind of cunning plans to weaken Khamenehei and strengthen the Ahmadi and Mashaei’s side. How they are going to achieve this I don’t know. It is obvious that they are giving him lots publicity in the media. You can clearly see that they are drawing a nice image of him (no longer a monkey) in the media which I think is not sufficient. By whatever means, if they succeed, from their point view, the best option, is a military attack by Israel. Ahmadinejad will come out as a victor and the nation will rally around him for quite a few years. “Democracy!” will prevail and they will all be happy. A civil war in Iran, like in Libya will not guarantee their victory. Iranians are far more sophisticated than Libyans.
Obama
by Kamangar on Tue Nov 08, 2011 08:26 AM PSTI wonder if this is just more rhetoric or there is any substance behind the scenes.
//news.yahoo.com/sarkozy-told-obama-fed-israe...
Israel's Most Useful Ally
by RonPaul Iranian Fan on Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:19 PM PSTIran represents such lucrative marketing for Israel. Why would Israel want to do away with such a wonderful gift as the IRI? Any time Mr Ahmadinejad or any other IRI official makes the slightest derogitory remark about Israel, the West unanimously rushes through with yet more diplomatic support, more security guarantees, more billions of dollars in aid, and deliver more of their latest weapons to Israel. If you were Israel, would you try to destroy such a useful ally in disguise? Israeli leaders love to publically announce that America is Israel's greatest ally. Actually Israel's greatest ally is the IRI. No other country has aroused as much meaningful sympathy for Israel and led to as much galvanzing of support for Israel, than the IRI. Israel needs the IRI, but the IRI needs Israel too. Without Israel, Iran could not have become a regional power since 1979. The IRI defines itself as a regional power in large part by standing up to the antagonist in it's story, as it tries to tighten it's grip on Islamic leadership in the world. What better opponent to help achieve this than one which routinely practices military tactics on civilian populations under it's occupation? Don't get me wrong. I believe that if push came to shove, the IRI would probably do the same; use Apache helicopters to slaughter wholesale young disgruntled Green voters, whose country is occupied by their own and not even European Colonialists. Of course sometimes the actors lose themselves in their roles and maybe sneak into the prop room and replace the blanks with real bullets. For now the theatrics and sabre rattling are of the vanilla flavor, that is, a state of politics is at work in Israel, Iran, and elsewhere by which enormous economic problems, and corruption are masked, and an attempt is made to divert public attention to anywhere but home.
thanks Darius for explaining your views
by Anahid Hojjati on Mon Nov 07, 2011 06:30 PM PSTi agree with some and do not agree with few. ironically, this afternoon i was talking with some one who told me that there are about 30 iranian tv stations. when i asked that couldn't they become motahed and be only about 5 or so. he who is very young and was born here, noted that why if their business is good. so may be part of the reason that there is not a focus is that people are in a way content with how things are and their own role.
Dear Anahid
by darius on Mon Nov 07, 2011 05:09 PM PSTI see Israel and Iran both as mirror image of eachother. Both lie, fabricate and do whatever it takes to reach their goal including deceiving public minds. Human life has no meaning for neither one of them and they always have an excuse to justify their action .
I do not see any reason to defend or approve either one or mind to criticise them.
When, I left Iran, I left everything behind.I admitted that it was a chapter in my life and it ended . I was fully aware, it was time for a new chapter .I am not looking back.
For me this is my home, this is where my son call it home and as a citizen myjob is to obey the law and do not commit act of treason .
These are my objection to Iranian in diaspora.
Our problem as Iranian is that we do not know who is telling us the truth , we are all confused and our visions is blurred.
As people who claim to be educated and one of the most prosperous community , still belivein the same old obsolete ideas of Jebhe meli or we think of Taleghani or Motaheri as freedom seekers , we have no power to let go of it and start a new chapter .
Green movement gives us hope, but we forget to realize it was not Mousavi or Karrobi that populated the streets of Tehran.That was a warning for the regime to understand where it stands in the eye of people. So the movement loses its momentum and fall into disarray.
I can tell you , what we have been good at , we are expecting those inside Iran to do the things that we understand and we think is right thing to do.We consider them incapable of even the slightest concept of freedom and a better life.
We tell them, it is ok to see your house being leveled by bombs ,lose your child and belongings (, we don't even show them an alternative) , but we forget , we were the people
who left Iran and could not bear to do what we are asking them to do in the last 30 years.We forget to praise them for living under a government that does not hesitate to treat them like a child under velayate faghih.
Iranian diaspora and the political groups is refusing to admit they were part of the disater, keep blaming Shah.Still a bunch of political brats, lazy and out of touch.
Iranian diaspora has no original idea or a focused effort to make any changes,The foundation is not there .A community of educated and progressive nation would not create those trash TVs.Iranian diaspora could have had statiosn that could enlighten Iranian inisde Iran by simply stating the fact and documented.
If you want to be logical, Mojahedeen are the only groups that have been able to stay on the track,organized and focused.I guess those are your last hopes .
( don't call me mojahed now, lol),
Darius,
by Anahid Hojjati on Mon Nov 07, 2011 02:26 PM PSTwhat is your opinion about this article? how do you see iri? iranians in diaspora, what should they do regarding iri?
Anahid
by darius on Mon Nov 07, 2011 01:42 PM PSTI have admitted many times, we are cowards including myself.,but I don't want to be like you.
I am proud of myself that never let "ye mosht molaye kooni va bache baz" , ye mosht roshanfekr gholabi va bache confedrasioni saram kolah bezaran".
I am sure you somehow fit in one of those category and yes,
you indeed have a lazy criminal mind, all you need is an environment to grow and feed , I can see Khalkhali in you .
Darius, I find it criminal that defenders of IRI use tactics
by Anahid Hojjati on Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:42 PM PSTlike you use to silence people like me. I see through you and those like you. Trying to keep people quiet against IRI by telling them that they don't have courage. In one little finger of me, there is more courage than in your whole body.
Anahid
by darius on Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:41 AM PSTI found it as criminal as IRI behavor and action ,if I ever wish others die for my cause , when I have no courage and no dignity to do
it for myself.
Dear Bavafa, good point
by Anahid Hojjati on Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:23 AM PSTYou wrote:"...I only beg to differ with one part of it which maybe just semantic and if so my apologies as I don’t want to be hang on semantic. And that part is that I clearly differentiate between IRI and Iran. The atrocities that you spoke of and I agree with are committed by IRI and not Iran."
As far as this writer, I don't know much about him.
Darius,
by Anahid Hojjati on Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:22 AM PSTFighting with gun against a government is one thing and speaking out that they are criminal is another. I admit that I am not brave and fadakar enough to go to Iran and fight IRI but at least I think well enough and I am not corrupted to say that they are criminals.
Dear Anahid
by darius on Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:12 AM PSTRight and wrong is not a commodity ,it cannot be treated as so, specially when you declare yourself as a champion for freedom and democracy.
What can you expect from an Iranian who sees the politician who
speak of freedom but accept money from a terrorist group ?( just one example)
There is no justification to see IRI exist or to be defended but only a lady with your conviction can fight IRI .I guess it is time for you to drop the pen, cut all ties and head to Iran.The next generation will be in your debt.Please take Massoud Kazemzade along(lol).
Anahid jaan: To be perfectly honest…
by Bavafa on Mon Nov 07, 2011 09:28 AM PSTI will have to read it more and contemplate to see what it means, but at first glance, no it did not answer my question.
I only beg to differ with one part of it which maybe just semantic and if so my apologies as I don’t want to be hang on semantic. And that part is that I clearly differentiate between IRI and Iran. The atrocities that you spoke of and I agree with are committed by IRI and not Iran.
The reason that I like to differentiate it, this can be used to demonize Iranians in the eye of the general public in order to push their [mal intention] agenda
In regards to this author, do you know if he is pro-IRI? If so, what gave you that indication?
As far as I can see, he is criticizing the insane behavior of the Israeli politician which by any means should be taken as an endorsement of the IRI internal policy.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
Dear Bavafa, I originally had much longer comment
by Anahid Hojjati on Mon Nov 07, 2011 08:21 AM PSTwhich I shortened. In my opinion, except those who are religious fundamentalists, anyone else who does not speak out or believe in atrocities of IRI, either does not think correctly or has some gain that he/she wants to protect. However many peple can not explain how an educated non Islamic person cannot be against IRI so they hide it with arguments. Thank god we have Saudi Arabia, otherwise what argument people would have.
Also, some people choose not to cut ties with Iran. Maybe not just because of nice travels to shomal but perhaps they yearn to see that old grandmother who is dying. Some of these people have to rationalize not speaking against IRI so then they have arguments such as women everywhere are discrimated, at least women in Iran don't appear sexy in magazines.
Iran is a country that licenses stoning of women, hangs people from cranes and jails actresses, poets, economists, teachers, etc. Iran is a fascist country. There is no if and but in this. Because some of us consider Iran to be fascist, we have a different view of everything.
Anyway, this cmment is becoming too long but I hope i answered your question.
Anahid jaan: Are you suggesting now ...
by Bavafa on Mon Nov 07, 2011 08:00 AM PSTthat those with opposing view, they all are IRI kool-Aid drinkers?
I know some on IC accuse others as such but surprised to see you share the same view!
If so, it is so unfortunate.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
Interesting that even non Iranians drink the kool-Aid
by Anahid Hojjati on Mon Nov 07, 2011 05:25 AM PSTof IRI. I don' t agree with what this writer says. On th eother hand, I agree with Jahanshah that it is difficult to believe that leaders of Israel are crazier than leaders of Iran.
"political freedom"
by Hafez for Beginners on Sun Nov 06, 2011 09:02 PM PSTJahanshah: Iran is producing more women doctors than the US. Equating them with their counterparts in Saudi... is kind of going overboard. As Iranians we do that.
An American friend recently told me: "We are politically free in the US" but:
- only half of us vote
- we are bombarded with Kim or Paris and their sex-tape rise to fame, 24/7, at every supremarket stand - can't buy a pint of milk in peace.
- we have fewer women in Government than Afghanistan or Iraq - or the industrialized nations (the US has 17% compared to 35-50% of many European nations)
- We can vote, but 1% take our wealth -- ie. Political Democracy with no Economic Democracy
etc. etc.
I personally think the world is far more complicated than just using "political freedom" as the sole judement criteria. America has political freedom - but you can argue, it has an economic dictatorship - how else did 1% end up with everything? Sure, if Iran is lacking in much - I sincerely hope it fixes itself, and fast. But let's not go overboard with the Saudi analogy. Iranian women outnumber even their Amerian counterparts currently, graduating out of Medical School. The world is a complicated place, and I wish more paradigms of judgement were used, than the important but not sufficient: "policital freedom." The US has lots of it, but half the population doesn't vote, 1% have the wealth, only 17% of women are in government and the rest of us have no choice but to stare at sex-tape stars while waiting to pay for a pint of milk. I decided long ago, that "political freedom" alone is not enough, it can't be, otherwise the above wouldn't stand.
On the topic of women, I do know Jewish women are strong, too - and perhaps if the women of Iran and Israel came together, there'd be more peace and cooperation.
I also hope to see a US with more women representatives. Ranking lower than most "Islamist" countries we point fingers at, is not great - and my women friends in the US are working hard to bring those changes about.
Yes, women and critics
by Jahanshah Javid on Sun Nov 06, 2011 08:05 PM PSTMr. Les, whatever campaign the orthodox groups are waging against Israeli women cannot compare to what women are experiencing Iran under the law, as official state policy. Just one example should suffice: Women are FORCED by law to wear the hejab in public. Nothing like that is happening in Israel, or any other country other than Saudi Arabia. I'm not going to go into other stark examples which relegate women to second-class citizens.
And what has happened to the Iranian opposition and critics since 1979 -- and notably since the 22009 elections -- is well documented by the regime's own figures and human rights organizations, making the Islamic Republic among the top worst two or three abusers of citizens in the world.
If Israel is doing badly, the Islamic Republic is worse 100 times over when it comes to the way it treats its own people. Palestinians excluded.
Women & Critics?
by Les on Sun Nov 06, 2011 07:44 PM PSTMr. Javid,
You may be unaware of the war on women that the Haredi (Jewish Orthodox) are waging in Israel.
//failedmessiah.typepad.com/failed_messiahcom...
And as far a war on its internal critics go, the Israelis have made significant strides backward here too. Avigdor Lieberman, for example, is as big a bully, ignoramus and crook as many an Iranian rightist politician.
This story has a bright side to it.
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Sun Nov 06, 2011 06:02 PM PSTThe USA Loves Islam in power for Iran, but the only way it can meet its needs is by Regime Change away from these mullahs. Their #1 choice, the MEK even on US and EU steroids won't get far with the views of Iranians against them not to mention the ones who control all the forces and weapons today in Iran. If the USA continues down the path of keeping the mullahs, the removal of which it has resisted, the USA will face a Regime it could not contain. This means in all issues related to Irans Economy the West will have no controls and this will lead to WW3. It would surely take a long time, maybe 20 years before that happens, but happen it will.
The West should have paid careful attention to History. WW1 and WW2 were caused by the exact same formula. 1) Imperialism / Colonialistic policies 2) Military Bases 3) Military Alliances 4) Extremism/Radicalsm in Power. It's only a matter of Time before what goes up, comes down. The leading Powers of the World get Reshuffled and New Powers Replace them. Who knows today, who the Austro-Hungarians were, the Britsh or The Ottoman Empire. Gone into the mysts of time. Bye Bye #1, #2, #3.
Who ever imagined, the Japanese, The Americans, The Chinese, The Russians would be leading the world Today. It's a pity none of the world powers learned from the past of other powers and pursued the wrong type of hedgemony which is attainable but not sustainable. They should have valued alliances more and thought ten times before betraying Iran & the Shah. At least the Moral curve of History will put a smile on the Shahs memory and rectify some of the injustices. Change will come about one way or another, if it is pursued now in Iran it will be far less painful for the world, if mullahs are kept in place the entire board and hierarchy will change with lots of pain eventually. Both have a moral ending.
"Boys and their Toys"
by Hafez for Beginners on Sun Nov 06, 2011 10:49 AM PSTYes Jahanshah: Mad "men" are in power... wanted to embellish on that a little:
WOMEN in GOVERNMENT: I was reading that the US has among the lowest number of women in politics in the industrialized world. Below are the %age of Women Representatives in varioius governments, worldwide:
Sweden: 45%
Norway: 39%
Spain: 37%
Germany: 33%
--
--
--
US: 17%
Bosnia: 17%
Egypt: 13%
(quotaproject.org)
I know this issue is between Iran and Israel: but the US is a huge and key mediator, that also happens to be among the lowest ranked nations in the develped world, vis-a-vis women in government, where decisions to go to war are made. No surprise to me, why WAR is always on the table. 17% women, in the world's biggest military super-power leaves too much testosterone on the table - little room for peaceful "mediation." That's what's scary to me. Boys and their Toys. The US is always pointing fingers at "Islamist" nations - but when it comes to Women in Government, it ranks lower than Afghanistan. I seriously doubt, if there were 45% women in Government, George Bush could have with such ease had Congress give permission to go to War. Only 17% women in government and the Kardashians 24/7 - not a great example as a "Leader" - and in this case, the "mediator." That's what worries me. Too many boys with toys.
Israelites
by Mash Ghasem on Sun Nov 06, 2011 09:51 AM PST//www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5JHGi0awgc
Lunatics vs Luntaics
by Jahanshah Javid on Sun Nov 06, 2011 09:43 AM PSTAs an Iranian I find it hard to believe that leaders in Israel can be crazier than those in Iran. Certainly the way the Iranian regime treats its own people, especially critics and women, is far worse than how Israelis are treated by those in power (excluding Arab Israelis and Palestinians in occupied territories?).
In any case the problem is that the two regimes are now locked in a war of words. Emphasis on WORDS -- for now. As bad as the Islamic Republic is, as loud as it is in calling for the destruction of Israel, despite the money and arms it sends to Hamas and Hezbollah, in reality, in sheer practical terms, it is in no position to be a threat to Israel, much less to its existence.
And you are absolutely right about one thing, which is the key to this whole argument: even if Iran develops a nuclear bombs, it's inconceivable that it would launch them at Israel. Why would it? To see Iran obliterated by retaliatory nuclear attacks? To see the country occupied by the US and its allies? To see the Islamic Republic get thoroughly wiped out?
The mollas are their own worst enemy. They are deeply hated and their demise is only a matter of time. The Iranian people will make sure of that. An attack by Israel and/or the U.S. will only make a martyr out of the regime in the eyes of many inside Iran, as well as Muslims all over the world. "We told you so," they'll shout, "Israel and west are out to destroy Islam."
I hope Israel will not give them that opportunity. I hope common sense will prevail. Time is running out, madmen are in power in Iran and Israel, but...
whatever...
by sumwoman on Sun Nov 06, 2011 08:33 AM PSTThe puppets mouth their lines and ready the innocents for mass murder..
...those wishing to spy the truth, look to a book named Morals and Dogma written by a mason named Albert Pike.
Rome died and its dark carcass robes the vamps. Through all these years, pulling, pushing, lying, killing, ruining, raping, stealing on a moribund quest for dominion.
Who dares cross the double crossers?
naive, cruel, enchanted zion hurries head long to a duel in the desert. In the city, wicked bejewelled warlocks in funny hats unassumingly poised to feast on plunder when all houses fall.
A great and absolutely logical argument
by Bavafa on Sun Nov 06, 2011 08:02 AM PSTToo bad, our world leaders are not interested and don't employee logic in their leadership.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad