Kourosh Erfani: Political Analyst

Commentary on military threats against Iran and possible future scenarios

from khodraha
13-Nov-2011
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Aarash4545

You forget one thing...

by Aarash4545 on Mon Nov 14, 2011 04:52 AM PST

and that is their wild card: The "Abaabeel" and "Ashaab-e feel"... God himself will protect them...He has promised it!


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hirre

...

by hirre on Mon Nov 14, 2011 04:10 AM PST

He speaks the truth. The dangerous situation (for the iranian people) is if the IR actually becomes "good", e.g. if the regime somehow would accept Israel's existence and allow full inspection of the nuclear facilities... In that case the west would treat Iran as any other good dictator state... Let's pray the IR stays radical in such a way that other countries see it as a threat...


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Darius Kadivar

What makes you think Post IRI Iran will stay united like Turkey?

by Darius Kadivar on Mon Nov 14, 2011 02:01 AM PST


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AMIR1973

Chances of a "velvet revolution" in IRI = 0%

by AMIR1973 on Sun Nov 13, 2011 09:00 PM PST

It will not happen. Period. Without significant force and some degree of violence, this filthy regime will not be uprooted. 


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Anonymous Bugger

Arab spring = anti dictatorship?

by Anonymous Bugger on Sun Nov 13, 2011 08:03 PM PST

no, its against secular dictatorship. just like your 1979 iranian spring. Time will prove you wrong just like your obama, mousavi and other picks..


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Jahanshah Javid

Somewhere between idealistic and realistic

by Jahanshah Javid on Sun Nov 13, 2011 07:57 PM PST

I agree that the ideal situation would be for the Iranians to rise up themselves and form their own future rather than wait for the West to do it for them.

But that could mean a combination of the third and fourth scenarios: A velvet revolution not instigated or organized by the West, but rather created by a popular uprising.

I don't agree that the so-called velvet revolution of the past half decade were American or Western creations. Just because the outcome benefited the West more than any other block does not make their leaders or their governments mercenaries. And what happened in Iraq ("Chalabization") is not the same as what has happened in the Arab Spring (anti-dictatorship uprisings).

And I see nothing wrong with Iran transforming into another Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea or Tunisia. Idealistically, they are imperfect capitalist democracies, although realistically they are far more legitimate and bearable than the Islamic Republic.


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