Victories That Never Were

Obama’s Iran policies were never all that effective

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Victories That Never Were
by Vali Nasr
24-Nov-2011
 

It wasn’t so long ago that the Obama administration was proudly proclaiming success in dealing with Iran, succeeding where the Bush administration had failed. For a time, a presumably weakened and isolated Iran was less of a worry.

Today, America’s Iran policy looks to be in disarray. The administration’s claims of victory ring hollow. Far from subdued, Iran is more defiant and belligerent. And the broad international coalition that the U.S. built against the country has splintered.

With the generally cautious International Atomic Energy Agency having finally accused Iran of secretly working to build nuclear weapons, the stakes are undeniably high. The clues to how to reset U.S. policy can be found in examining how things went wrong.

Whereas the Bush administration threatened military action in an effort to stymie Iran’s nuclear program, Obama officials leaked that they had accomplished that goal through sabotage -- deploying the Stuxnet computer worm in a joint operation with the Israelis to set back the Iranians’ progress by several years. The Obama team also succeeded in enlisting the habitually recalcitrant Russia and China to support harsher sanctions against Iran at the United Nations.

The Stuxnet Bug

Iran appeared to be hurting, for a while. Wherever the Stuxnet bug came from, the Iranians acknowledged that it harmed the nuclear program they claim is entirely peaceful. The Iranian economy was faltering and its political house was divided. For an added bonus, the whirlwind set loose by the Arab Spring deprived Iran’s authoritarian regime of popular sympathies in the rest of the Middle East.

Two developments -- President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s conciliatory decision to release two American hikers imprisoned on spying charges and a new Iranian proposal for resumption of nuclear talks -- were interpreted as proof that Iran was buckling under the pressure. The Obama administration’s approach was working, the argument went; the world stood with America, and a chastened Iran was looking for a way out of its isolation.

However, that is not the Iran that comes across today. Last month, U.S. officials unveiled allegations of an audacious Iranian plot to murder the Saudi ambassador in a restaurant in the heart of the U.S. capital, a plan that would have risked killing bystanders. That news was followed by the IAEA report.

Candidates for the Republican presidential nomination were quick to seize on those revelations to turn the tables on the administration. Far from having a handle on Iran, they argued, the U.S. had been too soft. They demanded decisive action -- sanctions on Iran’s central bank and oil industry. Some broached military action, Bush-style.

China and Russia had the opposite reaction. Unimpressed with the IAEA report, Russia ruled out new sanctions. China followed suit and warned against military action. Under this pressure, the IAEA Board of Governors settled for severely criticizing Iran and postponed talk of additional sanctions to future meetings.

How did the shine come off the administration’s Iran policy? And how did the U.S. lose Russia and China along the way?

Delaying Not Crippling

Part of the answer is that Obama’s Iran policies were never all that effective. While there’s little reason to doubt the value of the Stuxnet worm, it was capable only of delaying, not crippling, Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

As for sanctions, the international restrictions approved at the UN haven’t been fully imposed, and the unilateral measures taken so far by the U.S. and European countries haven’t been as successful as the administration has made them out to be. The restrictions have constrained Iran’s economy, but that has not translated into a perceptible change in Iran’s stance on the nuclear issue. Sanctions have caused shortages and fueled inflation, but oil revenue continues to fill the government’s coffers and keep the economy afloat. There is still plenty of liquidity in Iran’s economy; consumption remains robust; salaries are paid; and there is no sign of bread riots.

In truth, it would have been too much to expect the Iranians to give up their nuclear weapons ambitions so soon. In that sense, Republican claims that the Obama team has failed are excessive. Still, the alleged assassination plot in Washington suggests Iran has not been as cowed as the administration has been suggesting. So the team has a credibility problem domestically when it claims its policies have tempered Iran.

At the same time, the administration is not entirely convincing internationally when it maintains that Iran is misbehaving despite containment efforts. The U.S. allegations of official Iranian involvement in the Washington assassination plot met with considerable skepticism abroad. U.S. public diplomacy has done very little to remove those doubts.

Similarly, the IAEA report, hyped by Washington, was perceived outside of America as less than a slam-dunk. The findings of the nuclear watchdog agency, which reports to the UN General Assembly, are more suggestive than convincing. The report is short on concrete evidence, fuzzy on key details and long on caveats. That is why it met with swift resistance from Russia and China.

The basic lesson for the administration is fairly simple: A little modesty and moderation would have helped. Dealing with Iran is never easy and nobody has a perfect formula. Other lessons include: Touting your success can set you up for a fall. It’s wise to make a strong case if you’re going to accuse another government of terrorism. And before flacking another party’s evidence against your enemy, make sure the proof is airtight.

New Sanctions Round

In an effort to get new traction in its Iran policy, the Obama administration this week announced a fresh round of sanctions and signaled its readiness to extend them to Iran’s central bank. Without the backing of Russia and China, however, unilateral sanctions by the U.S., Canada and European countries will continue to have an insufficient effect on the Iranian regime.

To get Russia and China to sign on to meaningful penalties, the U.S. must be more persuasive about Iran’s iniquities. The Obama administration must put an end to doubts about the veracity of the Washington plot. And it must shore up the IAEA report with convincing intelligence of its own proving the Iranians are working on nuclear weapons.

First published in bloomberg.com.

Vali Nasr is a Bloomberg View columnist and a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. To contact the writer of this article: Vali Nasr at vali.nasr@tufts.edu.

Balatarin
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alimostofi

Good article writing by

by alimostofi on Sat Nov 26, 2011 08:09 AM PST

Good article writing by Iranians in English, must be such that the rest of the world understands more clearly what is going on in Iran. To write articles that are worse than the non Iranians counterpart is not on. The Iranians in Iran write and catagorize the various political and religious groups very accurately. Why is it that it is not done in English? That is the reason why we are where we are. I beg you all, please be more detailed.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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alimostofi

Vali Nasr: In using the word

by alimostofi on Sat Nov 26, 2011 07:57 AM PST

Vali Nasr: In using the word "Iran" throughout your article, you have obsfucated the issue. You know very well that The Hezbollah Party in Iran policies are what you are describing. What "Iran's" policies are, we do not know. Please be more careful. You assume that the people of Iran suffer from international sanctions, when they are suffering from The Hezbollah in Iran's sanctions. Life is miserable because the Ayatollahs make it so. Very elementary. B-

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

FG is right

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Nov 25, 2011 05:05 PM PST

 

Obama had few choices at the time. Do nothing;; make a half baked speech or go all the way. The American troops were tird up in Iraq and Afghanistan and people not ready for another war. So the last option was out.

The second option would have just given IRI more fodder. Obama picked the first one with slowly turning the screw. It was probably the only feasible option he had. For years I have said regime change in Iran is for Obamas second term. 

Imagine a year from now. Assad is gone; IRI in deepest economic hole it was. Obama won his second term and no reelection to worry about. That will be the time to move. A Republican victory  has very similar results unless it is Ron Paul!


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FG

I think the article

by FG on Fri Nov 25, 2011 04:08 PM PST

I think the article operates from a false premise in its assumption that any feasible move by Obama would have made a difference in short-run Iranina policy (2009 to the present).  I believe Khamenei was going to do what Khamenei was going to do so long as he had the capacity to do it. 

Sanctions and growing diplomatic isolation take TIME to produce a devasting accumulative effect combined with other trends.   You can't judge their effects in a day, a week or six months.

Their effect will be compounded however as three other ingredients come into play: 1.  Assad's fall 2. possible hyperinflation 3. an upcoming election dilemna which spells trouble for the ruling clerics no matter how it turns out.

Only three election outcomes seem possible a) Ahmadinejad's faction wins without interference; b) Ahmadinejad wins and is cheated, or c) Ahmadinejad's faction is eliminated in advance by the Garddian Council. 

Options B and C could well lead to more post election chaos that could be compounded by the pre-existing ingredients mentioned above.  Should the greens and working class join disillusioned Ahmandinejad supporters, the mullahs will have a much tougher time putting this one town.  As I've said before the protests this time must be SCW (spontaneous, continuous and widespread), giving the regime too much to counter for  too long.


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Darius Kadivar

Tarseedan ;0) : Iran arrests 12 for 'CIA spying'

by Darius Kadivar on Thu Nov 24, 2011 04:24 PM PST


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Oh my god!

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Nov 24, 2011 01:34 PM PST

 

There are so many things here mixed up.

1) Hikers the non issue of the year: The business of them has nothing to do with anything. It was never an issue for American people. It is neither here nor there. I have been living in American for the whole period. Not one person I know ever mentioned it. No one cared. It was used by IRI to "look benevolent". By USA to make IRI look bad. Will no doubt be used by  "hikers" to write a book. Their arrest and subsequent release should not be a factor at all in the IRI policy.

2) Economy: The IRI economy is down the toilet. Yes they pay everyone because they PRINT money. Of course all the salaries are paid. There is still enough oil money to buy paper and ink to print money. And no food is not cheap. It is a race between getting the pay and rushing to spend it before inflation gobbles it up.  

3) Nuclear: We heard about this enough I won't even go there.

In summary IRI is still the same *** it was. Nothing has changed. Nor has anyone done others any favors. Obama should get new advisers.

 


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oktaby

5th column

by oktaby on Sat Nov 26, 2011 08:51 AM PST

Membership has speaking from both sides of their mouths as a prerequisite (//iranian.com/main/news/2011/11/21/fifth-colu... ) and $#!*ing where you eat. From Nasr family this is par for the course. This son of a Nasr was " appointed to co-direct President Obama's foreign policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan....advised senior policy makers including the president...".

His daddy Hosein, trained him well. 'Islamist in disguise detector' needle goes off the meter when it encounters " President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s conciliatory decision to release two American hikers" where "consiliatory" pokes you in the eye as you read it; or "How did the shine come off the administration’s Iran policy?" as though it ever had any; and finally the needle just shatters into pieces when encountering this one: "There is still plenty of liquidity in Iran’s economy; consumption
remains robust; salaries are paid; and there is no sign of bread riots.". What he is disgusing as logic  is to say: go shake hands with IRR, show kiss and make up and let the islamist, hard or soft version, continue raping the people.

He makes half-true statements, then argues against them. He is simutaneously anti-American and anti-Iranian while sounding moderate even if still utterly useless.

You deserve brotherhood of Dabashi et al, and are truly a son of Hosein.

Oktaby


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Bavafa

Fact based article.....

by Bavafa on Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:43 AM PST

Reading thru, one can hardly pick any argued part that is contrary to facts on the ground.  It is certainly possible that we may not like them and thus call them boring or out of touch but it remains factual.

Good read

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


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vildemose

I agree with Bahmani a

by vildemose on Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:34 AM PST

I agree with Bahmani a 100%. This sounds like an essay written by a first grader. 

 

"It is the chain of communicat­ion, not the means of production­, that determines a social process."

-- Robert Anton Wilson


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Darius Kadivar

US can't even keep it's allies how can it threaten it's enemies?

by Darius Kadivar on Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:06 AM PST


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Regime is worried

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Nov 24, 2011 09:15 AM PST

 

Why is it that whenever regime is in trouble we get these articles. 

Here: sanctions by the U.S., Canada and European countries will continue to have an insufficient effect on the Iranian regime.

If they are so ineffective then how come the economy in Iran is tanking. With inflation running wild. Now be serious the IRI is in big economic dump. If it is not the sanctions then it must be mismanagement and robbery by the Mollahs. 

The regime should give up now and let people go free. The other stuff will fix themselves. There is one thing I agree with that nuclear thing is a red herring. Otherwise IRI has proved beyond any doubt it is a greatest enemy of Iranian people.

Get them out of here! Oon Yaroo is right do what he says. Or some variation of that. But one way or another the Islamist regime got to go. Now get the talking heads to come on and provide excuses and misinformation. Thanks for nothing.

 


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bahmani

Another Boring Statement of the Obvious

by bahmani on Thu Nov 24, 2011 09:11 AM PST

Is it just me or does the esteeemed VN once again offer not one suggestion here? merely repeating events in date order!

Obama did this! Ahmadinejad met with that! Then the US did this! And then Iran did that! Israel and the US then did this! And the Iran announced that! Russia and China didn't do anything! The IAEA issued this! And the UN proclaimed that!

BORING! ...and we already know all this, you think we don't read the same papers you do?

Is this what they call "Senior Analysis"? Without offering a single idea that even remotely offers the chance of an effective solution?

It looks like VN is on some sort of drug that makes him think he has a certain quantity of useless-article-pump-out quota and has to periodically come out with pointless blather about Iran and US in order to get a passing grade. Posing basic cable info as "news" and "scholarly insight".

Useless, Pointless, Obvious, Rubbish!

I used to like VN, then I got bored, now I'm just plain getting annoyed.

Sir, this is a writing and opinion website that distill the news and provides insight, relative relevance, and digests the information into explorations and coherence.

This is not a news site. If you want to re-post the news that others gather as your own, go somewhere else. We know the address of the Bloomberg site you "originally posted" this on. Don't worry, we know how to type it into our browsers as good as if not better than you.

But at some point, being in the unique position of having all the info come to you, HAS to give even the dimmest bulb in the room some sort of conclusion, tool, solution, or answer.

Reading a VN article is like walking into the same dark room you already know has a blown light-bulb and flicking the switch. Nope, looks like the bulb is still burned out!

JESUS!

To read more bahmani posts visit: //brucebahmani.blogspot.com/


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Oon Yaroo

"U.S. must be more persuasive about Iran’s iniquities..."

by Oon Yaroo on Thu Nov 24, 2011 09:16 AM PST

"The Obama administration must put an end to doubts about the veracity of the Washington plot. And it must shore up the IAEA report with convincing intelligence of its own proving the Iranians are working on nuclear weapons."

So, Dr. Nasr, 32 years of terrorizing, assassinating, murdering, plundering, torturing, and destroying Iranians and the others around the world are not "persuasive" enough to prove IRR's "iniquities!?"

Besides, haven't you been advising the Obama's administration on how to deal with IRR?

What approach would you take in dealing with this inflexible and unpersuasive regime?

Would you share with us your magic formula as to how you would convince the IRR regime to:

a) Stop its criminal activities & "Marg Bar Amrika"

b) Relinquish power and let Iranians to take destiny in their own hands,

c) Stop supporting terrorism inside and outside Iran,

d) Stop wishing & pursuing the wiping Israel off the map,

e) Stop pursuing of nuclear weapons,

f)  Stop being a pain in the "@$$" once and for all!?

 


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