Why Contain Iran?

... when its own aims will do just that?

Balatarin
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Why Contain Iran?
by Vali Nasr
02-Nov-2011
 

Iran is once again in America’s cross hairs. Even before the allegations of an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, concerns about Iran were high, with an impending U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq possibly leading to increased Iranian influence there. U.S. opinion and decision makers are expanding their estimate of Iran’s adventurousness and calling for new containment measures.

In both exercises, there is room for misjudgment. In fact, Iran has not become more ambitious of late; rather, its aspirations have been underestimated. As for attempting to rein in Iran, that could prove both counterproductive and unnecessary.

Until recently, the U.S. government regarded Iran as subdued, weakened and relatively isolated. There was considerable evidence for this view. Iran’s leadership is deeply divided. Its economy is reeling as a result of economic sanctions, which have reduced trade and therefore contact with the Arab world.

What’s more, Iran’s standing in the Middle East appeared to be declining after the Arab Spring. The “Arab street,” once enamored with Iran’s bluster, is now turned off by the country’s suppression of dissent at home and its support for the oppressive Syrian regime. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad put down a growing uprising. The possibility of a collapse of the Assad regime threatens to confound Iran’s plans for regional domination. Syria is Iran’s main Arab ally and its conduit for aid to Hezbollah, the militant, Islamist Lebanese group that Iran has used as a proxy to menace Israel, the U.S., Lebanon itself and others.

A Different View

From Tehran, however, the situation looks quite different. For one thing, Iran is not as worried about losing sway in a post-Assad Syria as many in the West think. Iran calculates that until Syria gets back the Golan Heights, a plateau captured by Israel in the 1967 war, any government in Damascus will need Hezbollah as a force to pressure Israel. And with Hezbollah comes Iranian influence.

Iran’s leaders are clearly preparing for the possibility of Assad’s fall. Even while claiming nefarious outsiders are fomenting the unrest in Syria, they have begun to add veiled criticisms of the regime’s brutal crackdown, an obvious means of pandering to the street.

What’s more, Iran’s leaders perceive that it is the U.S. position, not theirs, that has weakened in the region. They see U.S. troops withdrawing precipitously from both Iraq and Afghanistan; U.S. relations with Pakistan turning ever more sour; and Arab dictators who have been propped up by America for years under threat or already gone. The brazen nature of the Washington assassination plot supports the idea that Iran sees the U.S. as soft.

Given this perception, Iran is asserting itself. In the past two years, it has eschewed serious engagement with the U.S. on the Iranian nuclear program, Afghanistan or anything else. Rebuffing the U.S. idea of a hot line to avoid conflict in the Persian Gulf, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, Iran’s navy commander said, “The presence of the U.S. in the Persian Gulf is illegitimate and makes no sense.”

Fill the Void

Iran’s goals are to hasten the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq and fill the void left behind. Iran has increased its outreach to the Taliban and is pushing to complete a project to supply natural gas to Pakistan through a pipeline connecting the two countries. In Iraq, it has supported stepped-up attacks by the Iranian-backed Shiite resistance and is talking about having an expanded role after the Americans leave, for instance by volunteering to train the military. Iran is also exploring diplomatic relations with Egypt, which it has not had in years.

In this U.S. election season, presidential candidates will be tempted to propose strategies to contain Iran’s aspirations. To be seriously effective, such plans would require Arab countries as well as Russia and China, major trading partners of Iran, to sign on to a concerted policy of isolating the country. That’s unlikely to happen, given the Arab world’s preoccupation with Libya and Syria and the eagerness of Russia and China to do business with Iran.

Moreover, if the U.S. confronts Iran directly, it would probably work to the advantage of Iranian leaders, allowing them to divert attention from domestic woes such as inflation, unemployment and the embarrassing alienation between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The U.S. should not hand them that opportunity.

The alternative is to let Iran’s ambitious regional strategy play out. So far, it hasn’t gone so well. Iran has clashed over Syria with Turkey, which is hosting anti-Assad forces. And Iran’s strained relations with the other big Mideast power, Saudi Arabia, have been tested anew by the Washington plot and by the suspicious assassination in May of a Saudi diplomat in Karachi, Pakistan.

Iran expects greater influence in Iraq and Afghanistan once U.S. troops leave, but with that will come greater burdens. Once absent, America can no longer be the focus of opposition in both places. Instead, Iran may replace the U.S. as the target of popular anger, blamed for the failure of government to meet people’s needs. Iran may prove no more able to pacify Iraq and Afghanistan than the U.S. has been. Iran is adept at causing security headaches in the region but is untested when it comes to resolving them.

Failure on that front would leave Iran, rather than the U.S., in the middle of renewed civil conflict in Iraq or Afghanistan. It also would have direct implications for Iran domestically. Renewed chaos in either country would send refugees flooding into Iran and increase drug trafficking and violence in the border areas.

Iran may come to remember fondly the period when the U.S. military absorbed resentments in the region.

First published in businessweek.com.

AUTHOR
Vali Nasr is a Bloomberg View columnist and a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. The opinions expressed are his own. Contact vali.nasr@tufts.edu.

Balatarin
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Dr. Mohandes

AO jan

by Dr. Mohandes on Sat Nov 05, 2011 05:01 AM PDT

Hmmm... Some as in teeny...tiny bit smallish , minutish percentage...

A big chunk of it is done intentinally:)

I accpet that as a fact after spending most of the day Blog-browsing and Comment-shopping/viewing:))

 Hey man... Good luck in your upcoming challenge:))) 


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alimostofi

Risk...... It's all about

by alimostofi on Fri Nov 04, 2011 01:34 PM PDT

Risk......

It's all about risk. We Iranians don't want to take a chance. We just think that someone will critisize us. So we don't bother.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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Anonymous Observer

True DM - although some of it may be by accident!

by Anonymous Observer on Fri Nov 04, 2011 01:32 PM PDT

:-)


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Dr. Mohandes

The IDea Marketplace

by Dr. Mohandes on Fri Nov 04, 2011 01:29 PM PDT

AO :

I guess one could say there actually can be some drawbacks when people insist on having a Marketplace of IDeas... Things would have a tendency to totally get outta hand...

I don't know... I am just sayin, 


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

I hate it

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Nov 04, 2011 01:08 PM PDT

 

when people quote others! How about being original? Just because some famous person said it does not make it right; wise or my idea of a good time.

PS: If AO is not a cynic then I don't know who is "VPK".


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Anonymous Observer

Gee, thanks alimostofi

by Anonymous Observer on Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:02 PM PDT

for telling VPK that he calls me a cynic because he does not understand the accuracy of my observations.  :-)

 


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alimostofi

“The power of accurate

by alimostofi on Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:44 AM PDT

“The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.”
- George Bernard Shaw

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Dear Alimostofi

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:51 AM PDT

 

It is ironic that AO makes a "joke" then when you respond jumps on you. I respect ideas; and humor. But unfortunately some people are just interested in complaining. Nay saying and never offering any type of idea.


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alimostofi

AO: Do you want me to reply

by alimostofi on Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:41 AM PDT

AO: Do you want me to reply to you. Yawn!

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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Anonymous Observer

Don't forget the chelo kabab and piaz

by Anonymous Observer on Fri Nov 04, 2011 07:23 AM PDT

You gotta love Iranians.  They are being ruled by one of the most brutal, savage dictatorships of the 20th and 21st centuries, and what's their plan of liberation?  A massive concert in the U.S...Las Vegas I assume.  Syrians pour onto the streets every single day, despite 3000 of them having been killed by the regime so far.  And Iranians want a concert to get rid of a murderous dictatorship.  

Don't forget the chelo kabab and piaz to follow the concert, and afterwards some chai ghand pahloo and an afternoon nap.  That should get rid of the IR. :-) 


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Dr. Mohandes

Ali Jan

by Dr. Mohandes on Fri Nov 04, 2011 03:52 AM PDT

I was just making a point that a little bantering and making fun of non-workable approaches will not be such a bad idea and won't hurt and will not be an obstacle in acheiving our goal... Nothing too elaborate:)

 

But hey , If that is what is gonna get us to what is needed and what should be the goal, as a step in a right and bright direction, By all means... Shoot for it.

 


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alimostofi

Mohandes: Your idea

by alimostofi on Fri Nov 04, 2011 03:43 AM PDT

Mohandes: Your idea ......
Why not have a massive rock concert called "Save Iran from Ayatollahs" with a view that music is banned and all the human rights abuses. It needs to be done with all the top Iranian musicians and their foreign friends. We need to get loads to Youtube penetration and it all has to end up iphones androids etc etc. Let us shoot for a pilot one for Shabe Yalda and then Nowruz. This one needs to hit world opinion not just confined to Iranian diaspora.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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Dr. Mohandes

An effective strategy

by Dr. Mohandes on Fri Nov 04, 2011 02:21 AM PDT

VPK khan.

 

Not that i want to take an opposite stance to yours, which i think essentially, and eventually is the right thing to do but i also happen to believe that a little Humore may go a long way in getting the message across and hopefully into the minds of trigger-happy iranians abroad (some not all) who think, as AO hillariously put, Getting a Green scarf and aFlashmob rally, and going home and drinking to that,( a hearty and well-deserved  LOL!  to that)... would actually get the job done !

It is through this prism that i believe some may wake up and realize that the path that they are on leads them to nowhere land , and that may, MAY! rethink their ways and strategies.

 

Some rediculing may actually work even better on some people. May Rewire some people's brains' network if you will.... 


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AMIR1973

AO,

by AMIR1973 on Thu Nov 03, 2011 06:05 PM PDT

I actually like your poem. Now, I suggest reading it to a cement wall and seeing if the wall will move  :-)


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Difference between

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Nov 03, 2011 05:14 PM PDT

 

Realistic and practical ideas and sarcasm are obvious in recent posts. If we want change then real ideas are needed not cynicism. Yes we make jokes but at the end jokes will not change anything. 

  • Ideas = gets you results and may actually work
  • Sarcasm = makes you feel good to vent but will not change anything.

I take the former because done enough venting and am tired of it.


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Amir

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Nov 03, 2011 05:09 PM PDT

 

Thank you for a straight forward and practical response. I think that is where Americans are going. By the way I am holding the sames position as you. I know this will anger some people but I agree with you.

In time economic pressure will force IRI to weaken and fail. The only thing they got is oil. Which is not enough for keep the whole system running. I know from family back in Iran prices are really soaring. Islamic government will not be able to go on.


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Anonymous Observer

Amir jan

by Anonymous Observer on Thu Nov 03, 2011 05:02 PM PDT

I love Orwell as well.  But to show that I also believe in passive, Rosa Parks resistance to the brutal IR [not really, but just for the fun of it] I have come up with a really, really, seriously strong poem that I'm sure will cause the downfall of the IR in no time.  Here it is, if I may:

Go Islamic Republic, be gone,

Go, go, go, be gone,

I know you will go,

Go already, be gone,

Please, please, please be gone,

Otherwise, I will hold up a green scarf in Paris,

And then run to my house and watch TV,

After I have my nice evening walk,

And after I have my dinner and a glass of wine,

Be gone, be gone, be gone.

I think this should do it.  The IR should be gone by tomorrow morning, especially since I also hosted a green dance party in my backyard earlier today, like this one:

//iranian.com/main/albums/green-dance

and later held a green flashmob at the local train station.  Like this one:

//iranian.com/main/2011/jun/paris-flashmobpage1

Doing all of that, I simply cannot imagine the IR remaining in power.  That's why the West should remove all sanctions against the IR and "engage" it.  It will just fall on its own.  

 

 


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AMIR1973

VPK,

by AMIR1973 on Thu Nov 03, 2011 04:22 PM PDT

Since you are asking me my personal opinion: I support comprehensive sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran, oil, and natural gas; a total shutdown of all IRI entities in the West and elsewhere (Press TV, Interests sections, embassies, etc); an end to worthless "negotiatios" with the regime; making Regime Change official policy. I favor depriving the regime as much as possible of the funds it needs to pay its enforcers, propaganda machinery, etc. In order to undermine the regime, it has to see its funds seriously reduced. I also have no problem with covert actions against key regime goons both inside and outside Iran. Eradicating Islamists can save innocent lives (unforunately, Iranians, Americans, and others have experienced that firsthand), and it is morally justified. Again, this is my personal opinion.


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Amir

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Nov 03, 2011 04:04 PM PDT

 

What do you propose should be done. Given that you do not advocate an attack. IRI is not going to reform. No one really gives a *** what either one of us says. Really what should we do and how. Does it matter what I think.


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AMIR1973

AO,

by AMIR1973 on Thu Nov 03, 2011 03:51 PM PDT

You are welcome to use that quote by Orwell (Animal Farm and 1984 are among my favorite novels, though they make for very depressing reading). And yes, I agree that the IRI would have branded Rosa Parks a "mohareb" or "mofsed fel-arz", thrown her into Evin, raped her, and shortly thereafter executed her....BTW, for the sake of clarification, I have never advocated for the U.S. to invade Iran. 


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alimostofi

VPK: One of oldest theories

by alimostofi on Thu Nov 03, 2011 02:49 PM PDT

VPK: One of oldest theories is that Republicans create wars and Democrats create brain drains on their foes. Look at what Carter did and the brain drain of wealthy Iranians to America. Bush said anything to get a war going and he got a few. Obama has talked "democracy" to get money and people to leave North Africa. Just wait for next great war.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Dear Alimostofi

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Nov 03, 2011 02:36 PM PDT

 

I know your position but that is not my question. Mine is of people who say Iranian intellectuals are preventing US freeing Iran.

There are people that seem to think somehow USA wants to free Iran. And that Iranian Americans here are preventing them. I know it sounds ridiculous because USA does what it wants. But I want to hear their argument as how would America justify it.

That is it.


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alimostofi

VPK: The US has benefited a

by alimostofi on Thu Nov 03, 2011 02:26 PM PDT

VPK: The US has benefited a great deal from The Hezbollah in Iran and Lebanon. They need a Bogey Man in the area that the US tax payer will pay for. That in turn keeps the US economy going. A third of US GDP is in the military businesses. Peace would destroy US economy.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Regarding force

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Nov 03, 2011 01:27 PM PDT

 

there are many kinds of it and money is a very big one. It brought down the Soviet Union. It is the most effective means to bring down IRI without a major military action. Plus much easier to sell it to American public.

I have asked this many times never got a response. Please tell me how does Obama ask Americans to pay for a war to free Iran. What is in it for the American people. For a minute I will assume that America has the best of intentions. 

It still will take money and may cost lives of its soldiers. How do you get people behind it? Without popular support it will not happen and that is it. Amir jan if you want USA to intervene you need to show what is in it for them.


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alimostofi

AO do you want me to reply

by alimostofi on Thu Nov 03, 2011 12:30 PM PDT

AO do you want me to reply to you?

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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Anonymous Observer

Amir and alimostofi

by Anonymous Observer on Thu Nov 03, 2011 12:06 PM PDT

Amir jaan - that's a great quote.  In fact, I may use it as my comment "signature."

Ali Mostofi-- without any disrespect to you, comparing Iran's situation to British occupied India and Gandhi (which I see a lot on IC) is quite retarded.  India was under a foreign occupation by a country that had less than a tenth of India's population.  Iran is being ruled by a homegrown fascist dictatorship that owns all the guns, denies people access to basic free speech, a free press, an impartial judicial system and hangs dissenters with cranes without a trial (or with a show trial).  So, all this nonsense about passive resistance to this brutal dictatorship and some Rosa Parks style 'civil rights movement' is nothing but time wasting distractions.  In my opinion, the whole idea behind that garbage was probably planted in the minds of various West residing pseudo intellectuals --and the so-called Green movement advocates--by the IR itself so that its miserable existence can be prolonged for a few more years while the opposition is busy writing poems and signing petitions.    


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alimostofi

“It is easy enough to be

by alimostofi on Thu Nov 03, 2011 11:47 AM PDT

“It is easy enough to be friendly to one's friends. But to befriend the one who regards himself as your enemy is the quintessence of true religion. The other is mere business.”
- Mahatma Gandhi

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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AMIR1973

AO jaan, there's a quote by George Orwell...

by AMIR1973 on Thu Nov 03, 2011 11:26 AM PDT

"Despotic governments can stand 'moral force' till the cows come home; what they fear is physical force."


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Anonymous Observer

Amir jaan have you noticed

by Anonymous Observer on Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:50 AM PDT

that the conclusion of all the anlysis by West residing Iranian pseudo- intellectuals is 'leave the IR alone and everything will be A-OK?'  They come at you from different angles, but the conclusion is always the same.  Very strange. :-)   


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AMIR1973

AO :-)

by AMIR1973 on Thu Nov 03, 2011 08:51 AM PDT

Working for the Great Satan pays very well, my friend. You should try it.


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