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Spelling Danger
03-Oct-2011
The world has grown accustomed to Iranian bluster. But even by the standards of the Islamic Republic, Adm. Habibollah Sayari's call last week to deploy the Iranian navy near the U.S. coast is stunning. The Pentagon knows, of course, that Iranian war vessels won't come near America's shores any time soon. As White House spokesman Jay Carney said, "We don't take these statements seriously, given that they do not reflect at all Iran's naval capabilities." The Iranian admiral may bark, but he doesn't have much of a bite.
Still, the loss of a sense of proportion revealed by the rhetoric of Iranian leaders tells us several things about the country's disorientation in the face of citizen uprisings that are still shaking the region. It also tells us that three years into President Obama's term, the U.S. and Iran remain perilously close to confrontation.
Iran is a country that has lost its regional momentum. Tehran cleverly utilized America's many mistakes in the Middle East during the George W. Bush administration to expand its sphere of influence and fill the power vacuum left by a declining United States. The enemies Iran could not defeat were crushed by the U.S. military, and the standing it could not achieve on its own fell into Tehran's lap through the plummeting of America's regional status.
But rising on the back of American missteps could only carry Iran so far. After the brutal repression of its people following the fraudulent presidential elections of 2009, and the rise of the Arab populations elsewhere in the region against their dictators, Tehran has lost its strategic sense of direction.
Though the Islamic Republic had predicted — and indeed applauded — an Arab Spring, it was nevertheless surprised by the absence of a prominent anti-American dimension to the protests. With no appetite among the Arab protesters to direct their anger against America, Iran faced great difficulty exploiting Arab frustrations, particularly since its government had no intention of embracing for Iran the kind of changes being demanded by demonstrators in neighboring countries.
The Arab Spring has diminished Iran's ability to wield soft power in the region. Instead, the momentum has shifted to Turkey, which has not been shy about stealing pages from the Iranian playbook for appealing to the Arab street.
When the strength of a state declines, its desperation increases. Its statements grow more aggressive and fear — more than calculation — guides its actions. Much indicates that the Islamic Republic is experiencing this right now, partly because of regional developments but mainly due to the state's internal weaknesses following the 2009 elections.
Yet, though it is preposterous to think that the American mainland is under some form of military threat by Iran, Tehran's disorientation has not reduced the risk of a U.S.-Iran confrontation. Indeed, the combination of three important factors explains why the U.S. military leadership has voiced its concerns that an accidental clash in the Persian Gulf could spiral out of control.
First, America's declining influence has created a vacuum in the region that begs to be filled. The ensuing jockeying for position and the creation of a new regional pecking order have given birth to geopolitical turmoil.
Second, this turmoil comes at a time when most regional powers are suffering from unusual internal political weakness. The ability to conduct effective foreign policy has been compromised by internal divisions. Decisions about crucial strategic matters are increasingly made on the basis of domestic politics rather than geopolitical calculus.
This near-collapse of statecraft is clearly visible in Israel. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has chosen to limit its foreign policy maneuverability to whatever its fragile governing coalition can endure. Disproportionate foreign policy risks are accepted in order to prolong the life span of the coalition at the expense of Israel's long-term interest.
Egypt, Iraq and Syria all suffer from political instability, in different forms and for different reasons. And while Saudi Arabia has managed to buy off its protesters, it will be facing a succession crisis in the next few years that could spark a Saudi Spring.
In Iran, political cannibalism within the Iranian elite has reached new heights. While this has not necessarily given birth to a new Iranian adventurism (beyond the harsh rhetoric), it has paralyzed the state and weakened its ability to maneuver in a changing strategic environment. This is particularly the case when it comes to crucial issues such as its relations with the United States.
Third, this paralysis is all the more dangerous in an environment in which the parties aren't on talking terms. This has led to a collapse of statecraft and an increase in bluster that could prove quite dangerous. One small spark could cause a conflagration.
The U.S. military leadership is rightfully worried about this situation. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael G. Mullen, has repeatedly raised the lack of communication between the United States and Iran as a major concern in the last few weeks.
"We are not talking to Iran so we don't understand each other," Mullen said last month. "If something happens … it's virtually assured that we won't get it right." The lack of communication has planted seeds for miscalculation, Mullen argued. And miscalculations often lead to dangerous escalations.
Mullen's diagnosis is on target, as evidenced by the escalation in Iranian bluster. Talking to the Iranians is not guaranteed to resolve the fundamental issues that have created this dangerous atmosphere. But it might ensure that in the midst of the barking, there isn't an accidental bite.
First published in latimes.com
AUTHOR
Trita Parsi is president of the National Iranian American Council and the author of the forthcoming book, "A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iran."
| Recently by Trita Parsi | Comments | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Bibi’s Three Steps Forward, One Back | 5 | Oct 13, 2012 |
| Mistaken Path | 18 | Jun 22, 2012 |
| Give Obama Elbow Room on Iran | 26 | Jun 15, 2012 |
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MM
by Parham on Mon Oct 03, 2011 08:02 PM PDTIf there is no will for war, there will be none, no matter how much the two sides shoot at each other in an "incident".
However, if there was a will for war, things would be different. For the time being both sides (and more the Iranian side) are just talking tough. There still is no indication that the US will be willing to get into yet another high-cost confrontation, especially with the economic situation prevailing.
The illusion that there is a will however, is created by all the "ho-chi"s who think this will be to their benefit, and have something to get out of it. Scare tactics, basically. I think we both know who I mean here, among others.
Legitimacy!
by G. Rahmanian on Mon Oct 03, 2011 08:01 PM PDTLegitimacy of an organization does not rest solely upon the high level of education of its rank and file and how well-connected the individuals it has in its service are. Such considerations by themselves do not legitimize an organization's existence or its efficacy. Its legitimacy rather lies in the quality of its work in the interest of those it represents. All tyrannical regimes in the history have sought help from among the more educated layers of their citizenry and have employed some of the brightest individuals in their service.
Parham
by MM on Mon Oct 03, 2011 07:38 PM PDTIn the hands of the right-winger neocons, the Gulf of Tonkin example is a very good example of how a "provokation", as you call it, would be used to escalate an incident to a war. Don't you think so?
There was also a good exchange in the JFK movie (radio silence across ships at the time!) where the actions of the US navy on shooting a warning shot across the bow of a Russian ship was objected to by JFK because it was said that "what if the captain of the Russian ship did not think that this was a warning short and thought that you just missed your shot, and now the Russians start shooting back, and as soon as they start shooting, you shoot back thinking that the war has started", or something like that. Hopefully, you get the gest of it!
Gulf of Tonkin
by Parham on Mon Oct 03, 2011 06:45 PM PDTFunny that should be used as an example. Lyndon Johnson actually used that to engage in war with North Vietnam, but it was all deliberate provocation; and according to recently declassified documents, the engagement had come from the US initially and not the Vietnamese as thought previously.
So there was a will for war and there needed to be an excuse, unlike the case for Iran so far.
//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incide...
?
by maziar 58 on Mon Oct 03, 2011 06:06 PM PDTQuestion is why now ?
However the INTERNATIONAL waterlines are open to all
UN members.
Maziar
Faramarz
by MM on Mon Oct 03, 2011 06:34 PM PDTI do not know the answer to some of your questions, but bending over is not something that I expect Obama nor Parsi to do. You may want to ask your questions from Reza Marashi who joined NIAC in 2010 after a four year tour in the Office of Iranian Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. The answers may also be found in Parsi's upcoming 2012 book "A Single Roll of Dice - Obama's Diplomacy with Iran" in which Trita was quoted as saying “interviewed 70 high-ranking officials from the U.S., Iran, Europe, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Brazil—including the top American and Iranian negotiators—for this book".
As far as talking to various groups, working in DC, Trita Parsi / NIAC talk to a lot of people whether Iranian, Israeli, American or otherwise, and they have not hidden it. Also, the fact is that 70% of Iranian-Americans do not favor a war between Iran and the US, means that NIAC can only try to influence the US policy in preventing a war, especially one that starts the way the Vietnam war escalated, cf. Gulf of Tonkin. Apparently, Mullen has also alluded to this issue.
Regime's Apologists Beg To Differ!
by G. Rahmanian on Mon Oct 03, 2011 04:52 PM PDTRegime's Apologists Beg To Differ! They want the world to believe the regime in Tehran is a peace-loving, non-violent entity which has been misunderstood and needs to be listened to! They want the world to think it's the "Iran-haters" who want war. This is while many of these apologists are waiting to represent IR and work as brokers in purchasing weaponry if and when another war involving Iran breaks out!
Three (3) simple facts to shed light on this complex issue....!
by Oon Yaroo on Mon Oct 03, 2011 04:40 PM PDTFact #1) Since the Clinton's era, US has been wanting to sit across the table and talk sense to IRR provided that it would meet three (3) conditions:
Not only that IRR has not met any of the above conditions, but also it has intensified its effort on all those fronts!
Fact #2) US NAVY and Iranian NAVY (not the IRGC but the left over from the Shah's era) have always had open communications channel.
Adm Mullen's reference to having communications with the IRR meant that if IRR took one wrong step, US would take a decisive and irreversible action.
And, we all remember how US NAVY taught a good lesson to Rafsanjani in his 1988 adventurism in engaging the US NAVY which ended up with the sinking of half of the Iranian NAVY! Stupid people will never learn!
So, if I were the IRR I would think twice before I sent the other half of my NAVY to the Atlantic's to be sunk by the US NAVY!
Fact #3) There will be no negotiations or deal of any kind between US and IRR as along as the latter is in power. And, Dr. Trita Parsi needs to realize that!
wow....
by shushtari on Mon Oct 03, 2011 03:54 PM PDTthe bache akhoonds and agha zadehs our out on force on this one...
of course, anyone who questions their beloved 'super-lobbyist' for the IRR gets attacked by the same old crap......zionist, neocon, etc.
baba,,,,,no one asked this idiot to be our 'voice' outside of iran......
jamesh koneeen
just leave the 'great satan' and go back to the cesspool created by the mismanagement of the akhoonds
"Accomplishments: Preventing War"?
by Parham on Mon Oct 03, 2011 03:55 PM PDTAnd you all are taking these people seriously? Honestly, this sounds to me like a young, inexperienced, wanker job applicant (sorry for the vocabulary, ladies) trying to boost his CV. One that would, at any half-serious place, end up in the trash...
And did anybody bother to read the article? "an accidental clash in the Persian Gulf could spiral out of control."? "One small spark could cause a conflagration."?
Where does this guy think this is all happening? The Cartoon Network? No, seriously...
Finally, we get something
by vildemose on Mon Oct 03, 2011 03:12 PM PDTFinally, we get something worth reading from tp.
The Next Phase of Iranian Naval Expansion//www.informationdissemination.net/2011/09/next-phase-of-iranian-naval-expansion.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+InformationDissemination+%28Information+Dissemination%29
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis
MM, Questions on NIAC
by Masoud Kazemzadeh on Mon Oct 03, 2011 03:00 PM PDTMM,
PLEASE do not change the subject. Here are my 4 questions:
1. How many times did Dr. Trita Parsi meet with the CIA?
2. Did TP get money from the CIA for whatever he provided the CIA?
3. How much money did Trita Parsi get from the CIA, if he got money from the CIA?
4. Did Trita Parsi, in his many meetings with Javad Zarif the VF regime’s ambassador to the UN, tell him about his meetings with the CIA? In other words, did Trita Parsi had contact with the CIA with the knowledge and support of Javad Zarif?
Could YOU please ask the officials of NIAC and/or folks from the NIAC Internet Response Team to provide official NIAC responses to my 4 questions
I look forward to honest official NIAC answers.
Masoud
MM, Please Help Me Understand
by Faramarz on Mon Oct 03, 2011 02:59 PM PDTYou seem to be a reasonable person on other topics, so help me understand the purpose of Trita’s blog. OK?
In this article that I assume is written for the US audience, he is advocating a dialogue between US and the Regime, especially the military heads so that barking does not turn into biting.
Now let’s look at the history and the facts.
Obama before taking office promised that he would attempt to talk to the Regime and he delivered on that. Recognizing that Khamenei is the one in charge, and not Ahmadi, he sent two letters to him and got only one reply. He then authorized a meeting in Europe with the Regime representative and others and agreed to a nuclear swap which the Regime’s representative accepted. But a couple of days later the powers-to-be in Tehran reneged and walked away from the agreement. The US government also put forward a military-to-military hotline to prevent an accidental confrontation and escalation which the Regime has rejected out of hand. And meanwhile the Regime has been supplying arms to the Iraqis and the Talibans to kill American soldiers.
So it seems that one party has extended a hand several times and the other party has rejected it every single time and has become more hostile. And since this article is not addressed to Khamenei, but to the US audience, what exactly is Trita asking the US government to do?
“Drop its pants and Ghombol!”
Dear cousin Farmarz: I was going to respond…
by Bavafa on Mon Oct 03, 2011 02:41 PM PDTBut unfortunately this thread already got polluted by various personal attacks from all sides and lost its appeal for me.
I will catch you some other time and hope to continue our chat in a more constructive forum
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
Dear "Professor"
by MM on Mon Oct 03, 2011 02:28 PM PDTI thought your concerns were genuine and I did try to get you the answers that you wanted from Trita himself. However, I realized that your purpose was not to find answers but you treat IC as your classroom and us as your students. So, you just made up more "yes" or "no" questions from the answers I provided on a 1001 nights quest. As I answered you before, "this ain't my first rodeo".
In another blog, TP himself was answering questions and the final one was "where did you go to kindergarden?" at which point I suggested that we cut off the Q/A session.
As I mentioned before, tell me what other Iranian-American organization has done more (or even 1/10 as much), and I may decide to even support her. Please.....for the nth time!!!!!!!
Good one .... Dear VPK
by Soosan Khanoom on Mon Oct 03, 2011 02:23 PM PDTGood one .... Dear VPK
بابا خفمون کردید با این تریتا پارسی
KhersMon Oct 03, 2011 02:22 PM PDT
ر چند وقتی این آقای پارسی یک چرندیاتی در اینجا مینویسه و شماها هم میفتین به جونش و هی کامنت پشت کامنت. اگر ایشون مهم نیست براش کامنت نگذارید. بگذارید هر چی خواست بگه. کشور آزاده. این آقای کاظم زده هم ما رو خفه میکنه. هی کامنتهای یک صفحه ای.
NIAC vs MEK
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Oct 03, 2011 02:19 PM PDTNot that NIAC is by any means perfect or even good. But it beats a bunch of traitors.
Is Trita Parsi a Mossad agent too?
by MM on Mon Oct 03, 2011 02:14 PM PDTTrita Parsi has had some visits to Israel and he admits to have talked to Israeli officials (See, e.g., his book, Treacherous Alliance) in Israel as well as in conferences outside of Israel. Could we also call him a Mossad agent?
What else folks?
MM. Questions on NIAC
by Masoud Kazemzadeh on Mon Oct 03, 2011 02:10 PM PDTMM,
Instead of personal attacks and insults, which you did in my original post, don’t you think honest answers would have been more effective?
1. How many times did Dr. Trita Parsi meet with the CIA?
2. Did TP get money from the CIA for whatever he provided the CIA?
3. How much money did Trita Parsi get from the CIA, if he got money from the CIA?
4. Did Trita Parsi, in his many meetings with Javad Zarif the VF regime’s ambassador to the UN, tell him about his meetings with the CIA? In other words, did Trita Parsi had contact with the CIA with the knowledge and support of Javad Zarif?
Could YOU please ask the officials of NIAC and/or folks from the NIAC Internet Response Team to provide official NIAC responses to my 4 questions. Please avoid personal attacks and insults.
Thanks,
Masoud
Is Trita a US agent too, as suggested by a certain "professor"?
by MM on Mon Oct 03, 2011 02:09 PM PDTWhile other Iranian-American organizations get called to the white house, the congress and the other US agencies to testify/suggest/comment and get lots of finantial support from various federal agencies.
----------------------------------
Questions to Professor Mammad Regarding NIAC, CIA, and American Funding
by Masoud Kazemzadeh
28-Oct-2010
Euphemisms At Work!
by G. Rahmanian on Mon Oct 03, 2011 01:58 PM PDTSo, now euphemism for warmongering by the regime in Tehran has become "disorientation?" And brutal crackdown has been replaced by a new metaphor, "loss of strategic direction." as the head of an organization claiming to represent Iranian-Americans, Mr. Parsi should know better than that. IR has never had any soft or hard power in the region. This whole mirage was produced by those "disoriented" analysts who write their analyses not based on the realities on the ground, but feed on little bits of uninformed pieces of news and much less informed sensationalist articles, here and there. Like many in this profession as a "political analyst," Mr. Parsi seems to be taking everything that comes out of Washington for their face value. It is equally funny that Mr. Parsi sees the "weaknesses" of the regime as recent phenomena. IR has never possessed any real strength and has enjoyed very little popularity, domestically; thus the brutalities against Iranian citizens since the day it came to power. The farcical nature of regime's political posturing were exposed when it stood by and helplessly watched Israel attack its allies in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria. Acts of terrorism orchestrated or carried out by regime's agents in Iraq and elsewhere, are hardly an indication of real power, at all. And should not have been perceived as such, to begin with.
MM please ask them
by Soosan Khanoom on Mon Oct 03, 2011 01:56 PM PDTTo post some, if any , accomplishment from MEK ... it would be a fair question to ask cause these guys constantly compare NIAC to MEK ..?
I can not wait to find out that what is it exactly that MEK especially its Camp Ashraf unit has accomplished so far?
Thank You Friends
by Masoud Kazemzadeh on Mon Oct 03, 2011 01:55 PM PDTFaramarz jaan,
Thank you, friend, for your contributions to this site and especially to this thread.
Best,
Masoud
=================================
Dear Truthseeker,
I have been struggling for democracy, and against the Shah’s regime and then the vf regime since I was about 14 or so. I am now 50 years old. I can assure you that no one can intimidate me into silence. A few non-entities throwing insults and lies will NOT silence me.
Best,
Masoud
===============================
Hamsadeh jaan,
Those who oppose NIAC includes liberal democrats and democratic socialists as well as independents as is clear from the participants on this site. When TP went to LA to talk, those who actively protested and succeeded in having Amnesty cancel the talk included Iranian Marxists and Mossadeghis (e.g., Manouchehr Mohammadi, a Mossadeghi liberal student activists fresh from Iran).
Best,
Masoud
peeing contest again!!!!!!
by MM on Mon Oct 03, 2011 01:49 PM PDTIt is not difficult to copy/paste from various NIAC-hater's site and post as genuine comment. Here is my copy/past from the NIAC site on her partial list of accomplishments:
//www.niacouncil.org/site/PageServer?pagename=About_accomplishments
Now, I challenge you to list the accomplishments of another Iranian-American organization, keeping in mind that the human rights stuff was suggested and acted on since 2007.
-----------------------------------
NIAC's AccomplishmentsSince its inception in 2002, NIAC has grown to become the largest Iranian-American grassroots organization in the country, with supporters in all 50 states.
NIAC is a household name on Capitol Hill and has emerged as a trusted source on US-Iran relations and the Iranian-American viewpoint. NIAC is regularly quoted in premier media outlets as an authority on affairs related to the Iranian-American community, including US-Iran relations. NIAC often teams up with groups like the New America Foundation and Amnesty International to discuss issues like the diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran, the deteriorating human rights situation inside Iran and the Iranian nuclear program.
Accomplishments: Preventing War
Supporting Human Rights
Opposing Discrimination
Promoting Our Heritage and Community
Ongoing Work:So Stupid?
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Oct 03, 2011 01:46 PM PDTYou mean put too much money in their Flex Spending? Listen to John Kyle or watch Faux News.
By the way I do get the insult from TS to me. Just because I don't wear my degrees on my sleeve does not make me stupid. It just don't like to use my "title" to push through a bad argument. I won't flag your post TS; I want people to read it. I like them to see what we are up against. Sure I am stupid; real stupid whatever you say man.
spelling misinformation
by hamsade ghadimi on Mon Oct 03, 2011 01:40 PM PDTniac's president for life has said it before that those who opppose niac are m.e.k. members or neocons. ramin j, the dedicated niac internet response team member, is just making his logical deductions from the niac's "fact book" (also known as trita parsi's hadiths). i just don't know how he made a determination that kazemzadeh is not a neocon and a mek instead of the other way around.
.
by Truthseeker9 on Sat Oct 22, 2011 01:20 PM PDT.
God help me
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Oct 03, 2011 01:44 PM PDTWhenever MK shows up we get endless posts with tons of links. None of which add to anyone's knowledge. All I have to say it thank God not all Ph.D s write so much and say so little.
If I wanted to read writings of "Senator Kyle" I would go to an AIPAC convention! Or www.foxnews.com . Next time just post a link to foxnews and save ut the trouble. Actually I just did that so no thanks; don't bother.
Disclaimer: I am not accusing of MK of being a member of anything. The only thing I say is his long winded posts require me a new pair of glasses. Which is a good thing since I put too much money in my Flex Spending. Now I have reason to spend it.
Re-Stating Some FACT
by Masoud Kazemzadeh on Mon Oct 03, 2011 01:32 PM PDTDear Truthseeker,
I do not think any person on IC is sooooooooooo stupid to fall for Ramin J’s LIES.
I am a known long time member and official of the INF-AO [Jebhe Melli Iran Kharej az Kashvar].
For the record, I have never ever been a member of, a support of, or a sampat of the PMOI.
Since of I was about 14.5 I was a supporter of the JM. I was the founder and elected President of the student chapter of JM on my campus when I was an undergrad.
Best,
MK