Current Events

Esfand Aashena

You are very observant. Excellent comment.

Using the next election to hold demonstrations.

How does that sound?

Voting in a rigged system, is not sensble, showing unity among people, of how many of them want democracy, but will not participate in rigged elections I think better than voting and just complaining again.

Start with the legitimate complaint that you have If 20 million people stand out to protest and don't vote, and the regime shows that participation was up from 40 million to 42 million, this will damage them far more I think.  The power is in the peoples hands and they need to express themselves and show it.

Then if they can organize that level of civil disobedience organically, they can move to holding strikes and other things that undermine the torture wielding fascists.

 This is a battle of wills as I see it, the regime is on its way out, even though they don't see it, guns & totrure won't work if thre is leadership behind this also, committed to achieving the peoples goal.

I mean...

Why do you think they're trying so hard to cut the links between the inside and the outside?

It's not exactly because they don't like boobs...

It's because he doesn't, really.

There's an expression that says "oon poshtesh garme".

Please never compare Mousavi with anyone (meaning "unknown") fighting for real democracy languishing in Iran's jails; those we might never even hear about. The likes of Mousavi and Karrubi (and many other "reformists" in jail) are very different: They're from within the system, so they usually know how much risk they're taking. Great that they stand for their positions, that makes them brave for their cause, but that doesn't solve much for me (and you?) who want something else (democracy).

About letting people find out all by themselves, your point is well taken and I think you are right to a certain degree. However, there are two points I should bring to your attention:

1- When you're inside the system, you don't exactly see things (or at least you don't see the same things) as someone who's outside the system. I, outside the system, can see that by hanging to the same false premises, the ones inside are just turning in circles. They might not see that. I can only bring that to their attention and leave them to judge whether I'm right or wrong. Your attempt to discredit me will only harm and disrupt that flow of information between me on the outside and them on the inside.

2- Growing/learning doesn't only come from conditioning. It doesn't only come from absorbing information either. It's a combination of both. In the example of people learning that this system is and will remain undemocratic no matter what (which is what I resume you think too, according to what you said), if they stood only by what they've been standing for (Mousavi, Karrubi/reform idea), they'd just be running around in circles, whereas if they broke that mold and went straight for democracy, they'd make their battle meaningful. However, there needs to be someone there suggesting that to them. If you wanted only to rely on the conditioning model (for them to learn that by themselves) you'd probably not get too far. If you only suggested that to them, they wouldn't get too far without the conditioning part (learning by experience) either. So, there needs to be a combination of both.
So again, your coming in and calling "us" different things might only disrupt that process.

Only if you were a supporter of the current system would your position against "us" make sense.

I hope I was clear in my explanation.

Iranian people are like teenagers with issues.

Hamsade jaan I remember your prediction from your blog on June 13th so I don't know when on June 13th you wrote it, time zone in America is different than Iran and you were here and I was there trying to get the heck out!  I was literally dodging bullets and zipping through traffic with tires burning all over at midnight on my way to the "Imam" airport!

Being in Iran in 2009 and voting on June 13th and being present for the following few days was one of the best times of my life.  I am so grateful to have had that opportunity to be there at that time and actually vote amongst others who were in line.  I have stories from people whom I stood with in those long lines but won't mention it now.  I actually went to the voting place 3 times, each time to take some elderly uncle or aunt and accompany them.  It was fun!

Parham the point of what I am saying is Iranian people are evolving.  We have to wait for them to evolve en masse and in their own time.  

Imagine you have a teenage child who is experimenting with marijuana or cocaine or alchohol or depression and such.  You already know the results and are far better off and far more experienced.  What do you do?  Do you kick his ass and flog him mercilessly?!  I guess if you are Siamak you'd do it and I may too!  But it is not always that easy.  In the case of Iranians and what they did in 1979 and 2009 it means squat if you tell them we told you so!

So s/he who understands people and walks in their shoes and helps them grow at their own pace will come up on top.  We who thread water here amongst ourselves are just wasting time.  Mousavi's time is much better spent for Iranian people than us.  Our time is spent on ourselves!  He has the guts to face regime's thugs and we run away from them.

So bottom line, what he said, as easy and predicting with his eyes closed as it sounds weighs a lot more than you're dismissing him for.  You won't even bring yourself to give him credit for having guts. 

Everything is sacred

Anahid

True, but I was part of those, and in his message he is citing me as well.
In any case, I don't "bekhod begir". (?)

Jahanshah jan

See, I wonder about that. A lot of people say Mousavi is just an excuse for people to protest, so if that's the case, it probably wouldn't make a difference whether he really stood for democracy or not -- if people knew their priorities right, that is.
More there's also the fact that in the past two years, a lot of the people who genuinely supported Mousavi and the so-called reforms (which I'll argue didn't exist anyway) have turned around and are (most probably) supporting democracy.
So in that case, would it really make much of a difference, still?
Ah, if we only had good, reliable stats...

Parham jan, shoma bekhood nageer.

I think Esfand is talking to more than just you. He is talking to all who were against voting in 2009 elections.

Erection vs Election

A good asian colleague of mine, due to his accent used to use letter R instead of L when uttering this word, causing some smiles. But I really doubt if Iranian people would be as excited about this election as previous one, certainly not excited to the point of erection. 

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."

Esfand

I'm not sure I understand your logic.
This is not a battle of guts. It's a battle of a certain people for democracy. When some of those people designated as icons don't even want democracy, then it doesn't matter if they have guts or not!

Also, you ask why people didn't listen to us in 1979 or 2009. That has been debated over and over in the past thirty-something years (and past two as well). I don't know, why do you think they (you) didn't listen? Why do you ask us? All we can say, is that --unfortunately-- we told you so.

esfand jan, your messages

esfand jan, your messages are cryptic.  talking to me? 

i see you that you dug up my comment from couple of years ago about predicting the end result of the elections in iran correctly before the ballots were turned in.  now you accuse me of not predicting the protests?  next, you'll accuse me that i didn't predict obama would get the democratic nomination for 2008 presidential elections.

oy vey.  if you weren't talking to me, please disregard. :)

Could make a difference

Parham, if Mousavi does renounce the Islamic Republic and velayat e faghih, it would be big news. Anytime a politician of his stature breaks rank, it's a significant event. It will embolden other former reformists to do the same. It will deepen existing cracks.

I have to agree with Esfand that it takes guts or perhaps

Even though Moussavi was involved himself in crimes of IRI, but for him to say this, it does take guts, or who knows, maybe IRI is putting him in Torshi for rooze mabada. When they think that fall of their regime is close, they will make him prime minister, excuse me, I meant president.

خود گویی و خود خندی عجب مرد هنرمندی!

You all knew before the 2009 election that it was a sham and Islamic Republic was un-reformable?  Really?  You also knew that the Islamic Republic would not stick to the 1979 revolution ideals of democracy too?  Come again?

So how come Iranians didn't listen to you either in 1979 or 2009?!  I guess they're just stupid, ha?  Well stupid is what stupid does.

You can't cherry pick the events.  You can't be against the 2009 election and then be for the protests after it.  Although you can, just that your "prediction" didn't pan out as you predicted.  Sure hamsade jaan predicted the 67% for Ahmadi but he didn't predict that 40 million would vote or Iranians will take to the streets like they did.

The point is Islamic Republic brings hundreds of thousands to the streets to the Friday prayers and the Supreme Leader boasts about the free elections and the "religious duty" of the ommat-e always in the median (turnabout :-) to vote and vote religiously.  And it is in this atmosphere that when Mousavi as a "celebrity" and known politician says that elections are not free, it means something to people.  Especially the first thing after his release!  It takes guts, to me it does.

It takes no guts for anonymous Iranians to make generic statements about democracy!  Although, I'd say it takes some guts for JJJ to say it but then again he himself doesn't think it takes much guts!  He said it when he was littering Washington landmarks!

Everything is sacred

Unsuitable Conditions for Living!

Would have been a better motto!

IRI election? More like selection of a pre-approved candidate!

.

Jahanshah

I see... I was actually thinking about this today though: Do you think it will really make any difference if he broke out of his mold now anymore? I mean, even if he stands out and asks for democracy right now, will people ever forgive him (or totally dissociate him) for/with his past in the Islamic Republic?

Not good

Parham, I wish Mousavi would take a firm stand and break from the mold but... reality is different. He doesn't want to completely break away from the Islamic Republic, or he can't at this time, who knows? Conditions are not suitable in Mousavi's head either :)

Esfand

Nothing. Just that we all knew that. Some of us before the last elections already, some found out after the last elections, and some still haven't found out, apparently!

Jahanshah

I'm glad we're on the same wave-length!
Just that you didn't say whether that ("still there's no indication that he has lost all hope for reforming the Islamic Republic") is good or bad, according to you.

اسفند جان،

اسفند جان، گفتی‌ اون "چیز" چیه؟ یعنی‌ همون "ایت"؟ ایوالله.

Maziar

There is nothing to learn for us. You need to know that this system doesn't stand. It needs to go. We need democracy. Not another sham that will make us turn in circles and get more people killed while we stand still.
No more bull.

Parham, Well Said

I would not vote either for IRR who stole Revolution.  This System is unreformable & stinks! 

Yes it's "unsuitable" 4 "elections" whats wrong w/his statement?

Everything is sacred

این پفیوز‌ها

این پفیوز‌ها بلدن انتخابات بذارند ولی‌ هنوز یاد نگرفتن آرا مردم رو بشمرند. کسی‌ میتونه این جمله خامنه‌ای رو تفسیر کنه: "نباید اجازه داد که این چیزی که ذخیرهٔ امنیت است، استوانهٔ امنیت است، به امنیت ما صدمه وارد کنه."

نکنه خامنه‌ای برای تهیه سخنرانی‌هاش پسر خاله‌ش رو استخدام کرده.

Elections?

Good one Parham :)))

But jokes aside, is that all Mousavi could say about the state of affairs? Is this what his daughters chose to share with the public from their meeting with their father after months of house arrest? That the conditions are not suitable for the upcoming Majles elections?

Mousavi has been robbed a presidency, accused of treason and collaboration with the enemies of the Islamic Republic, under house arrest for months, denied all his rights and... still there's no indication that he has lost all hope for reforming the Islamic Republic.

You are the one who didn't learn anything Parham!

Ajab!

The election boycotters of the past 30 years are one of the reasons the Islamic Republic remained in power, as can be seen from what happened after the 2009 election!

You have not learned much in 2 years my friend. 

It's actually the opposite

All you people who voted found out, once again, that you cannot reform an unreformable system.
Don't tell me you still need more lessons.

Parham

did you vote at the last election?

Those who were  wise to vote at the last election, shook the very foundation of the Islamic Republic during the voting, the subsequent protests, and since then.

Were you one of those 40 million?

Or were you one of those who didn't vote and told everyone else not to vote either?

In my opinion, if people had listened to the nay-sayers and not voted, the Islamic Republic would not have been weakened like this in two short years. Voting was the right thing during that election. It will not be the right thing to do during this next election. 

Yes, from his state of house arrest, having been cut off for the past six months, Mousavi may be doing cheshm basteh gheib goftn. 

But can we say that from our safe lives in free states in the west, we have been able to predict things better?

All the election boycotters during the 2009 presidential election were wrong.Thankfully, Iranians inside Iran made their own decision and did not wait for Iranians in the west to tell them what to do! History will show that voting during that election may have been the most significant political act by Iranians in the recent decades.

چشم بسته غیب گفته

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