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elections afterthought
13-Jun-2009
I hate to say “I told you so…” but considering the election results and my uncanny prediction of the outcome on may 20 in the blog ‘a privilege long forgotten,’ I feel compelled to re-post a portion of my comment under what I had posted under the title ‘early results are in…’:
//iranian.com/main/2009/may/privilege-long-forgottenpage4
“lastly, i don’t think that even those who vote are idiots (although, i consider myself an idiot for voting in 2001). they must have an agenda or a perception that the act of voting satisfies it. but you, sir or madam [referring to the author of the blog], obviously have no shame. the iri infiltrates these sites and urges people to vote against ahmadinejad and creates an environment in iran to do just the opposite (rahbar implicitly and explicitly supporting him, closing of newspapers, etc.). the outcome of the election is already determined: ahmadinejad 63%, mousavi 29%, the other two stooges 5%, and 3% invalid votes.”
One must first come to terms with whether one believes that the votes were actually counted and there was not widespread fraud. I will describe three possible scenarios on the validity of the votes (and welcome other scenarios by the readers):
Scenario 1: If one believes that there was widespread fraud and the outcome was pre-determined (the shadow government being complicit), then the pro-vote stance becomes irrelevant and one can claim that the campaign of the pro-voters (knowingly or unkonwingly) was all a ruse to increase voter turnout as it would “serve as a slap in the face of the west” as Khamenei and his agents have repeated before, during and after the elections.
Scenario 2: If the votes were actually counted give or take some irregularities, one must respect the wishes of the people no matter how much one disagrees with them. In even the most idealistic democracy (i’m not insinuating that there is a democracy in Iran), there are always losers and winners.
Scenario 3: One can also surmise that the votes were supposed to be counted legitimately but were hijacked by the Ahmadinejad administration. In this case, one has to question how Ahmadinejad, who cast himself as an outsider to the powerbrokers such as Rafsanjani and Khatami, and when an omnipotent shadow government led by Khamenei is in power, Ahmadinejad’s administration can pull off such a heist without harm.
The purpose of this blog is not to ‘rub it in’ but to generate discussion on the reasons that the pro-voters invoked and see if they’re still valid in light of the results. As an example of pro-vote argument, “if one doesn’t vote against ahmadinejad, they’re inviting a military attack against iran.” Alternatively, the reason for not voting, or the effect the non-voters had on the election. In addition, this blog is intended to get a sense of what the readers believe a path should be for a more palatable outcome of Iranians (if it’s not, in one’s opinion, already achieved).
I am a believer of either Scenario 1 or 2 and here’s my terse reasoning for not voting under each of these scenarios. Under Scenario 1, it is obvious that I would just be wasting my time to vote; there’s a cost associated with voting (e.g. taking time to go to a voting booth), and no benefit in having my voice heard. Under Scenario 2, I believe that I have to have faith that voting is a consequence of a democratic process; I don’t believe in a convoluted system where the candidates are selected by a clandestine process and the label ‘reform’ is arbitrarily placed on a candidate with no track record for reform. Therefore, I will not participate in voting in a system not remotely resembling a democracy, and one cannot readily discern a significant difference between the candidaes.
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1/4th irani
by hamsade ghadimi on Sat Jun 13, 2009 05:17 PM PDTi'm not surprised at all that ahmadinejad won either. but i don't think he won by a fair vote count. his 'selection' was pre-determined as i had expected. my formula for the prediction was slightly more than two times the vote for ahmadinejad than mousavi, about 3% invalid votes (customary in previous (s)elections), and enough votes for the other two candidates given the sum of their votes + mousavi's votes + invalid votes < ahmadinejad's votes.
there are too many irregularities in the election process for the voters to cry foul. for example, mousavi should have won at least in his home town and home province. also, the voting officials declared ahmadinejad the winner after counting 10 million ballots. there are many other irregularities that have been charged and yet to be substantiated.
I am not remotely surprised
by 1/4th Irani (not verified) on Sat Jun 13, 2009 04:09 PM PDTI am not remotely surprised that Mr. A won, but am quite surprised by the margin (How could AhmadiNejad win in Tehran and Mousavi's hometown Tabriz?). The reporting by most western media outlets always seemed a bit full of wishful thinking to me (Northern Tehran doesn't equal all of Iran). What worries me now is that the premature jubilation of the Mousavi supporters - the footage, the impassioned statements made - and what are likely to be some disturbances and protests, will provide the occasion for a mega-clamp-down. If there was some fraud it was probably motivated less by the desire to ensure Mr. A's victory, and more to present a mandate big enough to justify a new large scale wave of repression. I recommend Mousavi supporters to suck it up and admit defeat.
The points that you missed
by KB on Sat Jun 13, 2009 02:52 PM PDTThis "election" has proved a massive shift in the everage Iranians political expectation. Never before in the history of Iran had the average Iranian felt that his or her vote mattered so much and the outcome is the best that any one could have hoped for. The outcome that I am talking about is not the re-election of MA but the following:
1) Many lines were crossed in the past couple of weeks that can never be un-crossed again. I am talking about the debates and the campagining etc, a massive step in the right direction and preparation for a proper democracy.
2) The disillusioned youth of Iran found something to get excited about and began to believe they matter.
3) The regime has inadvertently managed to divide itself and is now facing a possible collapse from within.
Long live Iran
The graph
by capt_ayhab on Sat Jun 13, 2009 02:52 PM PDTThe graph is supposed to be linear regression.
Main principle of regression is that the data[7 points observations] MUST fall randomly on either side of the regression line[the straight line] and they MUST demonstrate relatively large variations[poll results from different areas, or in this case from each million vote counted].
Simply put, the graph indicates that the observations were predetermined since it is obvious that Ahmadinejad must have won each data point[7 observations] with same percentage, give or take fractions, in order for the data observations to look like this.
Statistically this is next to impossible to occur. If the actual numbers were available a simple [R-Test] can prove the integrity of data, which in this case in absent. These numbers are not actual ballets, otherwise they would not be this close to the regression line[straight line].
Fraud is obvious, the published numbers are predetermined. Who ever prepared the fraudulent count did do it very sloppily.
-YT
P/S IF there was no fraud, then it must be MOEJEZEH, and I bet Imam Zaman had something to do with this MOEJEZEH... ;-)
Getting your facts
by moo (not verified) on Sat Jun 13, 2009 01:38 PM PDTGetting your facts straight/Trita Parsi: Ahmadinejad's Math "doesn't add up"
by Nulwee [Subscribe]
more...
//www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/13/739200/-Ge...
moo
by hamsade ghadimi on Sat Jun 13, 2009 01:22 PM PDTthe graph that you provided indicates that seven observations were used to fit a linear line. the startling feature of the graph, as some already have noted is its linearity; at each one of these observations, there were the same ratio (0.507) of mousavi to ahmadinejad votes with the exception of 0.2% (100 - 99.8) variation. i don't know how the constant (-0.485) ie explained; perhaps ahmadinejad started with half million votes before the vote count started. i can't imagine how at every one of the 7 time points, the same ratio of voters were observed.
the alternative form of presenting election results is to show them by percinct, town, village etc. one would think that the majority in tehran or azarbaijan (mousavi's home province) voters would've cast their votes for mousavi. by local investigation, it would be easier to find fraud. at any rate, i am sure that the government will iron out these amateurish presentation and will have a much more slick presentation 4 years from now. one way to improve their presentation is to not show a graph like this again since it absolutely has no informational value.
Iran's population is about
by moo (not verified) on Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:41 PM PDTIran's population is about 70% urbanized. It was not a given that the guy that had rural support was going to win this election. Furthermore, Mousavi was supposed to do well in urban areas, but most reports show losing urban areas just as badly as rural areas
Reports show that Mousavi got hammered in his home town of Tabriz and among his own ethnic group, the Azeri. In Iran, just in America and every where else in the world, candidates tend to do very well among their own ethnic groups and home towns. Apparently, this was not the case yesterday.
It looks like there was a turnout of 85% of eligible voters in this election. That is up from 60% turnout for the 2005 election. The Iranian authorities are saying Ahmadinejad won the election in a landslide, and this includes the cities. Why aren't these people celebrating in the streets of Tehran and the other cities?
Together, the official results of the election are that the other two candidates, Razaee and Karroubi, got less than 3% of the vote. Many of the people that are claiming or advocating that the election results were valid are also saying to look at what the polls were really saying, IE that Ahmadinejad was up in many of them. According to these polls Razaee and Karroubi should have gotten at least 15% of the vote.""
//www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/13/53551/1808...
NO WAY he won a 2-1 vote; i think possibly the interior dept simply switched the vote totals of the top 2 candidates(the massive turnout leads me to believe that was the case; basically i see the election as a "re-do" of the khatami election of 1997, where the reformist khatami won 2-1 with another HUGE turnout race(MA barely made a run-off 4 years ago in a race where the "reformist" vote did not show up to vote in the first round); IF rafsanjani actually has resigned in protest here(which has been reported)then this election was CLEARLY RIGGED
Here's how you steal an
by moo (not verified) on Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:36 PM PDTHere's how you steal an election in Iran.
Voters were obliged to choose a candidate and fill in a code. Though Mr. Moussavi was Candidate No. 4, the code No. 44 signified Mr. Ahmadinejad.
That's from the NY Times, a few paragraphs into the article.
It seems pretty clear that if a voter fills in the number 4, someone (later) could change it to 44. So a recount won't necessarily help.
//thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/13/landsl...
Landslide or Fraud? The
by moo (not verified) on Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:23 PM PDTLandslide or Fraud? The Debate Online Over Iran’s Election Results
By Robert Mackey
//thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/13/landsl...
The graph shows: Support
by moo (not verified) on Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:21 PM PDTThe graph shows:
Support uniform across all precincts and provinces. That's about as likely as rolling 6 3's in a row in Monopoly
What did you expect?
by farokh2000 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:05 PM PDTWhen the whole process is flawed, you should not expect more.
When they screen the list and let only the chosen ones run for it.
When, even the elected President has no power.
When they supress the Media, Press and anyone who would talk.
This is not democracy. It is Mullahs' Empire.
There needs to be a real, not a manufactured revolt to make these criminals go away for good.
Their original Head Mullah, Khomeini, was a CIA agent, supported/protected by them for over 25 years in exile, until he was needed to head an Islamic Regime to keep the Nation down.
Did we forget that?
Should We Laugh or Cry?
by Mort Gilani on Sat Jun 13, 2009 11:52 AM PDTI do not know about the veracity of the data in the graph, but if true, it shows how stupid the Islamists are. At least, they could use a non-linear or polynomial model to make it more believable. To report a correlation coefficient of 99.8% as random is just ludicrous. This should go on record as another Islamic miracle.
Thanks Moo
by khaleh mosheh on Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:53 AM PDTAs you say the graph is undoubted proof for fraud.
Disgusting cheats.
Moo
by cyclicforward on Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:43 AM PDTThe graph is really interesting. They really managed to screw it up this time. It is funny that they don't even know how to fake it.
They love Iran, but they hate Iran
by Is this ta'arof? (not verified) on Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:43 AM PDTKurush -- You give Ahmadinejad and co. more credit than they deserve. Your 5 points sum up to this: Ahmadinejad and the mullahs love Iran so much, they have to undermine it's constitution, it's election process and the will of its people. They don't love Iran. They love the version of the Islamic Republic that's in their minds, they love power and they love being in power.
graph of the fraud!
by moo (not verified) on Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:17 AM PDTThe Results As They Came In
//andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_di...
kurush
by hamsade ghadimi on Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:15 AM PDTthank you for your response. this is not an argument whether any iranian loves his/her country. i take it that not only you’re a believer of my scenario 2, but you are a supporter of ahmadinejad. i respect your thoughts but find it unbelievable to think that mousavi, khamenei’s ally for 30 years, is now a foreign agent and was planning a coup d’etat. the political campaigns in iran have become more sophisticated and i take that as sign of the times. while mousavi may have used a western campaign tactic by using colors, and in doing so selecting the color green for shi’ism, ahmadinejad borrowed obama’s campaign catchphrase ‘ma mitavaanim’ (yes we can). therefore, i’m not convinced that mousavi is an outsider, a reformer or planned to start an uprising against the state. however, i respect your honesty and your support for ahmadinejad (even if you also support the velayat faghih).
Spot on, Hamsadeh
by tan foroush (not verified) on Sat Jun 13, 2009 09:52 AM PDTYou're right. And you're smart. If people were able to curb their sentimental longings they wouldn't be so disappointed now.
And you know what, I think it's just as well that Ahmadi won. A definite wedge has now been drawn through the unified ediface of the regime (thanks in part to Ahmadi himself) and certain cats are let out of the bag. This very wedge will bring down Ahmadinejad himself in time. I think this is the beginning of the crumbling of these three friends/enemies: US, Israel, and Iran.
Wake up and smell the new world order.
consider other vital aspects also
by Kurush (not verified) on Sat Jun 13, 2009 09:39 AM PDTFirst, Ahmadinejad & the mullahs are Iranians and love their country as much as the rest of us do;
second, they are not the stooges of the West which ruled Iran since the Qajars and stole our naural resources, toppled a beloved Dr. Mossadegh & installed their puppet Pahlavi lackeys;
third, given the overt threats from the NATO/US, and their lapdog Zionist state, given the brutal, fascist occupations of Iraq & Afghanistan, is it not amazing that the naive youths of Iran , and the reactionary power-centers who use these naive youths to seat their candidate, Moussavi, in power, are so eager to make a deal with the Western thugs? If you threaten my country, you are my enemy and I will treat you as my enemy: I will not make a treaty with you who have threatened me & my existence. Yet the reactionary forces and the naive 20-somethings seem to be saying, no more threats, please we make a deal with you our belove West. We have to face the realty that two centuries of western dominance have turned a good part of Iranians into obedient servants of the West;
fourth, a color revolution in Iran? It is universal knowledge that color revolutions have been masterminded by the Western thugs to turn former Soviet states into Western allies & bases for aggression against Russia. Why all of a sudden a few days before the election day, the youths & Moussavi supporters wore green and made human chain, poured out into the street causing the commander of the Revolutionary Guard to sent warnings? If this was election then it should have been confined to rallys in pre-selected areas, not pouring out into streets wearing green. Who was behind this 'organized', 'green' color putsch? It is certain that elements in Moussavi camp had masterminded this? Another '53 coup?!!
fifth, the Moussavi camp chose to exploit the election, to subvert it into a soft coup, THAT IS TREASON.