Iran's Last Chance?

Mutual gain in resolving nuclear crisis


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Iran's Last Chance?
by Mohammad Alireza
12-Apr-2012
 

If the upcoming talks between Iran and P5+1 are really Iran's last chance, as Obama put it, then everything should be put on the table and an agreement be reached because the alternative, war, must be prevented.

This article is going to be my two cents worth on the upcoming talks between Iran and the "P5+1" powers--the United States, the UK, Russia, China, France, and Germany--reportedly scheduled for April 13 or April 14.

"Getting to Yes" is a best selling book that all sides on the "Iran crisis" should read. I think it's possible to download an ebook version, and doing a search for it brings up all kinds of useful links. This link to Wikisummaries is helpful:

http://www.wikisummaries.org/Getting_to_yes

Here are the very basics of "Getting to Yes" from Wikipedia:

"Members of the Harvard Negotiation Project, Fisher and Ury, focused on the psychology of negotiation in their method, "principled negotiation," finding acceptable solutions by determining which needs are fixed and which are flexible for negotiators."

"The method of principled negotiation is based on four propositions:

• Separate the people from the problem.
• Focus on interests, not positions.
• Invent options for mutual gain.
• Insist on using objective criteria."

Separate the people from the problem:

Which in this case would mean ignoring Ahmadinejad's outbursts and Netanyahu's threats and any utterances by the warmongering mob.

Focus on interests, not positions.

Below is my incomplete list of interests for Iran, America, and Israel.

The final two, inventing options for mutual gain is not hard to do if the interests are clearly identified. And using objective criteria is also not hard to do once the interests are fully understood and accepted by all sides.

Please note that the interests I have listed are much broader and fall outside of the agenda for the meeting that is going to take place in a couple days. However, the issues that will be discussed in the upcoming meeting are closely tied to the interests I've listed below.

Iran's Interests:

Sanctions removed or greatly reduced.

Stop the threats by Israel and America. "All options are on the table" is a threat.

Continue to keep dictatorial system of government under the control of a small inner circle.

Removal of American military bases from the region.

Have the option of developing a nuclear weapon as a deterrent in the event of invasion or national security threat.

Caspian Sea oil and gas resources transported via Iran.

No resistance to gas pipeline to Pakistan reaching India and China.

International investment in rapid development of South Pars gas fields and transportation of the gas to Europe, Pakistan, Turkey, India, and China.

Keep Iranians from having freedom of belief, expression, and political activity.

Keep its interpretation of Islam as the dominant system of thought and thereby retain its control over Iranian society.

America's Intersts:

No nuclear weapon development activity by Iran.

Not have any rivals to it's dominance of the Middle East.

Cheap gasoline prices domestically therefore free-flow of oil from the Persian Gulf.

Gain access to Iranian business markets for its corporations on favorable terms.

Keep its military bases in the region.

Have full access to exploitation of Caspian Sea oil and gas resources and have a secure transportation route.

Not have Chinese and Russian military and economic penetration into the region.

Israel's Interests:

Keep its regional nuclear weapons monopoly.

Remove organizations that stand in its way of creating Greater Israel.

Eliminate all outside support for organizations that fight for the rights of Palestinians.

First Phase of Inventing Options for Mutual Gain:

All banking and oil related sanctions removed.

Iran would end all military and financial support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and any other organization that is conducting violent actions against Israel.

Full access to all disputed nuclear sites and creation of acceptable verification system.

Sale of one million barrels of oil per day to America at 10% discount for next two years.

Israel halts all settlement activity, even those that are incomplete.

Iran agrees to open and free elections for all government offices, i.e. mayors of all cities, governors of provinces, judges, police chiefs, president, and Majlis representatives. Keeping or disbanding all governing bodies staffed by unelected individuals such as the Guardian Council and Supreme Leaders office: this would be voted on through special elections or a referendum.

State control over radio, television, and Internet would end and airwaves will be auctioned off. Four publicly supported television channels and five national radio stations would be created and these would be mandated to offer free airtime to those campaigning for public office.

Second Phase of Inventing Options for Mutual Gain:

Israel agrees to place its nuclear weapons under the control of NATO.

Middle East would be declared a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone.

All sanctions removed and Iran would be allowed to enter World Trade Organization.

America would close down all its military bases in the Persian Gulf.

Annual conference to be held in Iran to set 2025 as date for when all nuclear weapons will be eliminated from the arsenal of all nations.

Now that I've wondered off into fantasy land lets return to reality by checking out what the crowd at Council of Foreign Relations suggest. In the article, "Iran Talks: What Should Be on the Table?",four nuclear security experts lay out what the priorities should be for the talks. I would suggest that the Iranian side read this carefully because it contains most of what they need to know before entering the meeting room. Here is the link:

http://www.cfr.org/iran/iran-talks-should-table/p2...

(To keep up with the news on Iran I invite you to check out my blog "Letter from Iran" which has been featuring "Iran News: Condensed and Highlighted" for the past several weeks.)


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more from Mohammad Alireza
 
vildemose

 MOOOOOOOALI:: YOU are

by vildemose on

 MOOOOOOOALI:: YOU are anti-war?? Really? And I am suppose to take your *fighting words for it??LOL

*fighting words

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.


vildemose

TO MOALI

by vildemose on

 Dear MOOOOOOOOOAli: Keep on jilez velezing..............You are too sensitive for a basiji...l

WHy is being pro-IRI such an isnult to you, I thought you would be proud of your stance??

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.


Mohammad Alireza

To vildemose:

by Mohammad Alireza on

When you label me a lobbyist for the IRI that is no different to a "fosh".

Nowhere in any of my writings on Iranian.com will you find one sentence that defends the regime.

If you are going to make an accusation then back it up otherwise it's just a figment of your own imagination and presumptions.

I am an antiwar lobbyist, and a lobbyist for the peaceful transition from a theocratic dictatorship to a form a government that protects the rights of Iranians via the rule of law and true democracy.

When you equate me with Nazi's you are only putting on display your own warped state of mind.

(Yes, I flagged you and your comment was removed.)


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Irans last chance?

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Why read a book on negotiations, just read this article

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

http://www.asalbuchi.com.ar/en/2011/12/george-orwe...

the usa desn't really have any hopes for these negotiations or any expectation for them to succeed it already has its plans in place.  But it fully intends to use the negotiations it will agree to in future years to show what a fair and decent country the USA is giving the IRI one last chance after another.  The point is when the USA says Last chance, that is hypocrissy and it implies it is lying to make itself look good in the future.  And when the USA comes down on the IRI govt, it will be down the road and with overwhelming force, the USA's aim is likely to bring its next group of extremists to power and cripple the local people in Iran. 


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

I see, read between lines, okay

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

Makes sense.

I'm Very ehsasati today.


Mohammad Alireza

To: amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

by Mohammad Alireza on

I do know the difference.

The problem is you lack the ability to read between the lines.

Fred had it partly right.

Some of IRI's interests coincide with the Interest of Iranians, as in preventing war.

If you read the above carefully you will find where the interests of Iranians are addressed. Hint "First Phase...."


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

You don't know the difference between Iran and IRI MoAliReza

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

Iran (the entire culture, the people, the society) and IRI (a fringe of extremists, not representative of the majority of Iran) which has more in harmony with Hezbollah than Iran.  The minute you mention Iran, you are talking bahai'is, jews, sunni's and all groups, because Iran isn't a misrepresented discrimination administration like the IRI is today.  Iran is not those in power based on discrimination and narrow mindedness.


vildemose

Russia Plans to Flatten

by vildemose on

Russia Plans to Flatten Georgia if Israel Attacks Iran

TEHRAN (FNA)- Russia is building up forces in the Caucasus region, preparing to protect its interests in case Israel attacks Iran with the help of the United States, the western media said.

 http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9101140737

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.


alimostofi

The Real Enemy

by alimostofi on

If you look at proper Iranian mindset you will be dealing with the modern intelligensia. But the US media and US elections want to promote fear to substantiate more military spending. So the real issue is US not Iranians.

They can create an Iranian government tomorrow and get the whole regime changed in a snap. But then they would have to reduce military jobs.

@alimostofi
FB: astrologer.alimostofi


vildemose

 ...

by vildemose on

 ...


hirre

IR will never accept Israel

by hirre on

IR will never accept Israel and imperialistic states, it is indirectly written in the IR constitution. So even if the IR is given all that it wants it cannot simply accept Israel. You almost need to rewrite the constitution, make a fatwa, change a lot of things etc... It's like negotiating with Hitler to start accepting the jews and become friends with Stalin...This sort of hardcore behaviour is unfortunately something that fundamentalists/terrorists use. They think of Iran as a "person" who has been offended and that the rest of the world needs to be punished first, in order for a change. They cannot and will not accept the diplomatic game, "forget" the past, how corrupt it might even be... They don't understand that you can be great in many other ways.

For example, nazi-Germany wanted to rule the world, people were in on the agenda. You think those great feelings just disappear in a couple of decades? No! Today Germany basically rules a lot in the world, but through a smart way, money & business. Basically half of Europe depends on Germany...


alimostofi

One mistake Iran's interests

by alimostofi on

One mistake

Iran's interests are different to Hezbollah Regime's (HR) interests. When you look at HR you are looking at fixed universal ideology that is not negotiable and has it's own agenda.

HR does not care about any human or humane solution.

@alimostofi
FB: astrologer.alimostofi


vildemose

LOL

by vildemose on

 IRI's interests has nothing to do with Iran and Iranian's interest...

Which one of IRI's interests are fixed and which one are negotiable from your list??

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.


Fred

Islamist Rapists' interests

by Fred on

Of course by “Iran’s interests” you mean the “interests” of the Islamist Rapist Republic (IRR), which most often than not has nothing to do with the interests of Iran and Iranians.

Case in point your:

"Keep Iranians from having freedom of belief, expression, and political activity.

Keep its interpretation of Islam as the dominant system of thought and thereby retain its control over Iranian society.”


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