You're So Naive

Expectations over nuclear talks in Baghdad

Balatarin
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You're So Naive
by Reza Kahlili
22-May-2012
 

It’s hard to overestimate the degree of naiveté on the part of the West as it heads toward another round of nuclear talks with Iran in Baghdad on Wednesday.

Clearly, Iran is stalling for time to develop a nuclear weapon. One example: In talks last month in Istanbul, Tehran seems to have convinced international negotiators of the sincerity and weight of a fatwa, or religious edict, by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that a nuclear bomb is haram – forbidden – in Islam.

Last week, for instance, former French Prime Minister Michel Rocard said the fatwa will help promote confidence about Iran’s nuclear activities.

The ayatollah is not beholden to keep his word, but that doesn’t seem to be of much concern. At the Istanbul talks, the West agreed for the first time to Iran’s demand that it may enrich uranium, with restrictions – despite UN resolutions to the contrary.

The Islamic regime has continuously believed that the more its nuclear program is expanded and progress is achieved, the less likely the West will demand a halt to the program – and if Iranian leaders remain steadfast in the face of all threats, the more likely the West will eventually accept a nuclear Iran.

Recent chronology bears this out.

When President Obama took office in 2009, Iran was under several UN sanctions conditioned on its suspension of all uranium enrichment-related and reprocessing activities. At the time, Iran had 1,200 kilos of low-enriched uranium at its Natanz facility.

Mr. Obama chose to engage the Islamic regime, believing that an extended hand would yield better results than threats. He reasoned that a new US approach would be welcomed by Tehran because it was a complete change from the Bush administration.

However, the radicals ruling Iran saw this extended hand as weakness. They engaged the Obama administration while enriching uranium beyond the benign 3.5 percent level, as it had been limited to for many years, to the 20 percent level. While that is not a high enough enrichment level for a nuclear weapon, it is high enough to get to bomb-grade very quickly – in a matter of weeks if Tehran decides to do so.

Early in 2010, Obama, realizing his defeat in the negotiation phase, moved to a sanctions phase. But instead of the crippling sanctions he had promised, he started step-by-step sanctions that Iran’s clerics saw as further proof of America’s inability to stop Iran, which emboldened them to speed up their program.

Today Iran, under further sanctions by the United Nations, United States, and European Union, has over 5.5 tons of enriched uranium – enough to eventually make six nuclear bombs. It continues to enrich uranium with more than 9,000 centrifuges at Natanz, both at the 3.5 and 20 percent levels, and at the previously secret site, the Fordow facility, deep in a mountain near the city of Qom, to the 20 percent level.

All the while Iran is expanding the number of centrifuges at both sites, with a possibility that there are more sites unknown to the West or the International Atomic Energy Agency.

This takes us to the current set of negotiations. In Instanbul, the West handed the Islamic regime a historic win. For the first time in the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, the West offered Iran full acceptance of its nuclear enrichment process if Iran stopped the 20-percent enrichment.

In other words, the West has caved to Iranian demands of accepting its domestic nuclear enrichment.

Most interesting is an Iranian analysis of Khamenei’s fatwa: “If the Obama administration realizes the importance of the place of the supreme leader in Iran and understands the fatwa, then most of their problem [with Iran’s nuclear issue] will be solved.”

The analysis ominously stated: “There will be no other guarantee beyond the fatwa to the West” – meaning that the West will only get the word of a leader whose regime has been based on lies and deceit, a leader who has ordered the slaughter of thousands of Iranians – and also Americans – in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a leader who constantly threatens the existence of Israel and the “defeat” of America.

Khamenei is not a grand ayatollah, or a marja, and therefore cannot issue a fatwa. Many in Iran’s Islamic leadership know this. He was elevated to ayatollah status overnight to replace Ruhollah Khomeini when he died in 1989. Even if a marja issues a fatwa, he can overturn it if it benefits Islam. So Khamenei’s fatwa can be tossed out at the right time.

Interestingly, the regime’s interpretation of the Quran is to deceive its enemy, i.e. the West, until such time as the regime is strong enough to confront it.

Is Obama so naive as to hang on to a fake fatwa in return for accepting a nuclear Iran?

His secretary of state, Hillary Rodham Clinton, says she has discussed the fatwa with Turkey’s prime minister, experts, and religious scholars. “If it is indeed a statement of principle, of values, then it is a starting point for being operationalized, which means that it serves as the entryway into a negotiation as to how you demonstrate that it is indeed a sincere, authentic statement of conviction,” she said last month.

According to media reports, the US is expected to push Iran to close its Fordow facility and send its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium out of the country.

Iran has ruled out the closure of Fordow, even announcing that it will increase the number of centrifuges at that facility. And so far, its strategy of expanding its nuclear program while wearing down the West has already proved successful.

It is clear that after a decade of negotiations and sanctions, the leaders of the Islamic regime will not accept a full halt to their nuclear program. But given that Iran now has the know-how to make a bomb, that is the only outcome that should be acceptable to the West.

First published in Christian Science Monitor.

AUTHOR
Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the author of the award winning book "A Time to Betray: The Astonishing Double Life of a CIA Agent Inside the Revolutionary Guards of Iran." He teaches at the US Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA) and is a member of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security.

Balatarin
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Mohammad Ala

SK

by Mohammad Ala on Tue May 22, 2012 11:08 PM PDT

You are a good Iranian.  Don't listen to Mousa, he is a fake one.  LOL. Please save a balal for me.


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Soosan Khanoom

DM... relax baby .. lol

by Soosan Khanoom on Tue May 22, 2012 11:01 PM PDT

Have a trip to Shomal.  walk by the sea.  enjoy the smell of sahel and darya...  the sands , the seashells...

Do not forget Balal with Ab Namak ...

: )


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Soosan Khanoom

Mousa the joker !

by Soosan Khanoom on Tue May 22, 2012 10:54 PM PDT

I am anti-war !  And I cannot tolerate any voice who is asking for war against my country.   Sorry but I do not worship God BiBi !!!   If that qualifies me for the sweet treatments by the Moused agents anywhere on this planet earth. Then let it be,...  Bring it on !!


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Dr. Mohandes

SK jan

by Dr. Mohandes on Tue May 22, 2012 10:49 PM PDT

Baz oomadi o nasaziaaa! work with me here seester:)

It does not matter who is stating it, it is the truth akheh babam jan!

Besides, he worked for the CIA as an insider, that is not the same as working for both organization! He might have lived like a double agent, but he had his loyalty to the Seee ey aaa.

eh. Vyyy dooo yoouu mess vveet my feshare khoon, dokhtar joon?:))) ver eez my peel...


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Soosan Khanoom

DM ,

by Soosan Khanoom on Tue May 22, 2012 10:44 PM PDT

He worked for both Revolutionary Guard and CIA. That's what I call noor ala noor !   


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Dr. Mohandes

vildemose

by Dr. Mohandes on Tue May 22, 2012 10:33 PM PDT

A kolang or an ax is what is needed here, you know!!

 


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Dr. Mohandes

Albaloo

by Dr. Mohandes on Tue May 22, 2012 10:31 PM PDT

You really need to think through things and read carefully before you explode:)

It is funny that you chose to skip through all the reasons that enumerated in this piece of writing, which one does not have to be paid to write nor necessarily be a war advocate, in order to verify their accuracy, and Decided to come out with one things that i am a war advocate? I have no problem with anyone who puts the truth before us, and what makes sense, something i myself can see and feel, even if he or she is a wanna be charles manson.

I tend to advocate againts evil, tyranny, rubbish and nonsense ideology that i witness day in and day out. You think that is advocating for war? be my guest then.

something has to give and this is just outrageous.


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vildemose

MA: Why do you think you

by vildemose on Tue May 22, 2012 10:30 PM PDT

MA: Why do you think you are any less khaen/jasoos than the author of this blog?? You think supporting the criminals in Iran makes you less Khaen than a warmonger?? I don't think so.

There is no difference between supporting the Domestic enemies of Iran (khamenie et al and Islamic republic of Rape) or supporting foreign enemies of Iran.

 

All Oppression Creates a State of War--Simone De Beauvoir


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vildemose

MA: Why do you think you

by vildemose on Tue May 22, 2012 10:30 PM PDT

MA: Why do you think you are any less khaen/jasoos than the author of this blog?? You think supporting the criminals in Iran makes you less Khaen than a warmonger?? I don't think so.

There is no difference between supporting the Domestic enemies of Iran (khamenie et al and Islamic republic of Rape) or supporting foreign enemies of Iran.

 

All Oppression Creates a State of War--Simone De Beauvoir


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Albaloo

Doctor, are you a war advocate?

by Albaloo on Tue May 22, 2012 10:16 PM PDT

Doctor, are you a war advocate?  This is what this guy is for !  As SK said what do you expect from a Jasoos?  Now why should you want what he wants?  He is being paid for writing these stuff.  It is his job. 


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mousa67

i just googled the ingilish word for "jasoos" is "spy"

by mousa67 on Tue May 22, 2012 10:05 PM PDT

i think all the islamist shia "jasoos's" of the islamic ridpublic of iran from toronto to LA and london should be draged out of the starbucks where they are having their early morning caffe latte and shipped back to gaza strip into the custody of IDF, before we have another 9/11 shia style on our doorstep.


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Dr. Mohandes

Got something against Reality?

by Dr. Mohandes on Tue May 22, 2012 10:05 PM PDT

It is a trademark, actually of many of us iranians.

The moment something comes up and someone puts the facts and real issues before us, some would tend to get so mad and so bent out of shape, it is not even funny.

As for this article and its author, i could not give a rat's behind who it is and what he has done with his life, but the fact that it states NOTHING BUT the truth of the matter, that oh so happens to piss the hell of some "beneficiaries" of IRI, proves to me free and clear that he definitely has a point there.

The unfortunate thing is that one or another violence and force will be the way to go, whether we like it or not, the sooner this is realized the better for the ENTIRE Nation.

Those who happen to have their head inside the akhor of the IRI, better watch their back.


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Albaloo

I did not know Sassan means all the Iranians.

by Albaloo on Tue May 22, 2012 10:04 PM PDT

You can choose him as your hero but please speak for yourself not all the Iranians. 


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Thought

thought believes it's better to be naive than evil

by Thought on Tue May 22, 2012 09:54 PM PDT

Things that make you want to say hmm.

Horrible energy equates to horrible action from a horrible person. Pure evil. 


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Sassan1

Reza Kahlili is a HERO to the Iranian people

by Sassan1 on Tue May 22, 2012 09:46 PM PDT

To all the dolts attempting to smear Reza Kahlili - it simply won't work. Reza Kahlili risked his life and has sacrificed his life to free his homeland. He is a hero to all freedom loving Iranians and I applaud him for everything he has done. Read his book "A Time To Betray" instead of arbitrarily judging. If we had more people like Reza, our country would have already been liberated from the Islamic Republic hooligans.

 Remember, don't forget the lessons of history. Islamic Republic signing a nuclear accord will be like Hitler signing Neville Chamberlain's peace in our time treaty.


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Albaloo

SK, I am Completely with you on that. Well said.

by Albaloo on Tue May 22, 2012 09:04 PM PDT

SK, I am Completely with you on that. Well said. 


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hamsade ghadimi

seriously?

by hamsade ghadimi on Tue May 22, 2012 08:49 PM PDT

the pro-regime crowd was silent when amirahmadi, the true khaen, spoke: //iranian.com/main/node/180951

now, they're insulted because someone doesn't take khamenei's fatwa seriously. 


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Soosan Khanoom

What do you expect from a " Jasoos " ?

by Soosan Khanoom on Tue May 22, 2012 08:14 PM PDT

A revolutionary guard and a CIA agent !!   " TIme to Betray "  ??

WOW... He has pretty impressive resume.  


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Big Boy

Ephialtes

by Big Boy on Tue May 22, 2012 07:41 PM PDT

Every Society has its own Ephialtes (or Ahmad Chalabi).  A traitor to his own people so he can get favour from another.  For "Reza Khalili" to suggest that the West should not be naive and negotiate with Iran, but rather go to war and destroy the country and in the process kill and mame hundreds of thousands of Iranians, is quite simply treason.  I hope the west continues to remain "naive" and solve this issue through diplomatic means rather than through the savagery that Mr. Khalili is advocating.  With Iranians like this, the country does not need anymore external enemies.   


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Mohammad Alireza

Why is this posted?

by Mohammad Alireza on Tue May 22, 2012 06:49 PM PDT

Why is the editor of Iranian.com posting this article?

Reza Khalili is a fraud and is an advocate of war against Iran.


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