You're So Naive

Expectations over nuclear talks in Baghdad


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You're So Naive
by Reza Kahlili
22-May-2012
 

It’s hard to overestimate the degree of naiveté on the part of the West as it heads toward another round of nuclear talks with Iran in Baghdad on Wednesday.

Clearly, Iran is stalling for time to develop a nuclear weapon. One example: In talks last month in Istanbul, Tehran seems to have convinced international negotiators of the sincerity and weight of a fatwa, or religious edict, by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that a nuclear bomb is haram – forbidden – in Islam.

Last week, for instance, former French Prime Minister Michel Rocard said the fatwa will help promote confidence about Iran’s nuclear activities.

The ayatollah is not beholden to keep his word, but that doesn’t seem to be of much concern. At the Istanbul talks, the West agreed for the first time to Iran’s demand that it may enrich uranium, with restrictions – despite UN resolutions to the contrary.

The Islamic regime has continuously believed that the more its nuclear program is expanded and progress is achieved, the less likely the West will demand a halt to the program – and if Iranian leaders remain steadfast in the face of all threats, the more likely the West will eventually accept a nuclear Iran.

Recent chronology bears this out.

When President Obama took office in 2009, Iran was under several UN sanctions conditioned on its suspension of all uranium enrichment-related and reprocessing activities. At the time, Iran had 1,200 kilos of low-enriched uranium at its Natanz facility.

Mr. Obama chose to engage the Islamic regime, believing that an extended hand would yield better results than threats. He reasoned that a new US approach would be welcomed by Tehran because it was a complete change from the Bush administration.

However, the radicals ruling Iran saw this extended hand as weakness. They engaged the Obama administration while enriching uranium beyond the benign 3.5 percent level, as it had been limited to for many years, to the 20 percent level. While that is not a high enough enrichment level for a nuclear weapon, it is high enough to get to bomb-grade very quickly – in a matter of weeks if Tehran decides to do so.

Early in 2010, Obama, realizing his defeat in the negotiation phase, moved to a sanctions phase. But instead of the crippling sanctions he had promised, he started step-by-step sanctions that Iran’s clerics saw as further proof of America’s inability to stop Iran, which emboldened them to speed up their program.

Today Iran, under further sanctions by the United Nations, United States, and European Union, has over 5.5 tons of enriched uranium – enough to eventually make six nuclear bombs. It continues to enrich uranium with more than 9,000 centrifuges at Natanz, both at the 3.5 and 20 percent levels, and at the previously secret site, the Fordow facility, deep in a mountain near the city of Qom, to the 20 percent level.

All the while Iran is expanding the number of centrifuges at both sites, with a possibility that there are more sites unknown to the West or the International Atomic Energy Agency.

This takes us to the current set of negotiations. In Instanbul, the West handed the Islamic regime a historic win. For the first time in the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, the West offered Iran full acceptance of its nuclear enrichment process if Iran stopped the 20-percent enrichment.

In other words, the West has caved to Iranian demands of accepting its domestic nuclear enrichment.

Most interesting is an Iranian analysis of Khamenei’s fatwa: “If the Obama administration realizes the importance of the place of the supreme leader in Iran and understands the fatwa, then most of their problem [with Iran’s nuclear issue] will be solved.”

The analysis ominously stated: “There will be no other guarantee beyond the fatwa to the West” – meaning that the West will only get the word of a leader whose regime has been based on lies and deceit, a leader who has ordered the slaughter of thousands of Iranians – and also Americans – in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a leader who constantly threatens the existence of Israel and the “defeat” of America.

Khamenei is not a grand ayatollah, or a marja, and therefore cannot issue a fatwa. Many in Iran’s Islamic leadership know this. He was elevated to ayatollah status overnight to replace Ruhollah Khomeini when he died in 1989. Even if a marja issues a fatwa, he can overturn it if it benefits Islam. So Khamenei’s fatwa can be tossed out at the right time.

Interestingly, the regime’s interpretation of the Quran is to deceive its enemy, i.e. the West, until such time as the regime is strong enough to confront it.

Is Obama so naive as to hang on to a fake fatwa in return for accepting a nuclear Iran?

His secretary of state, Hillary Rodham Clinton, says she has discussed the fatwa with Turkey’s prime minister, experts, and religious scholars. “If it is indeed a statement of principle, of values, then it is a starting point for being operationalized, which means that it serves as the entryway into a negotiation as to how you demonstrate that it is indeed a sincere, authentic statement of conviction,” she said last month.

According to media reports, the US is expected to push Iran to close its Fordow facility and send its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium out of the country.

Iran has ruled out the closure of Fordow, even announcing that it will increase the number of centrifuges at that facility. And so far, its strategy of expanding its nuclear program while wearing down the West has already proved successful.

It is clear that after a decade of negotiations and sanctions, the leaders of the Islamic regime will not accept a full halt to their nuclear program. But given that Iran now has the know-how to make a bomb, that is the only outcome that should be acceptable to the West.

First published in Christian Science Monitor.

AUTHOR
Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the author of the award winning book "A Time to Betray: The Astonishing Double Life of a CIA Agent Inside the Revolutionary Guards of Iran." He teaches at the US Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA) and is a member of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security.


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Siavash300

I am still waiting.....

by Siavash300 on

I am still waiting for those who are critical  of Reza Khalili to come forward and suggest the solution to topple the stinky ruling mullahs from power and free our country. How we should do that? That is the main issue. Mullahs must go one way or the other. They belong to mosques and cemetaries, not in politic. Crocodile tears such as  oh.i love peace... oh no.. war oh.... peace and all other phony voices don't work anymore. Tell us what did you do to remove Islamist monsters who kept, enslaved our people in a big camp by the name of Iran for 32 years? have you ever taken any action?  what action did you take ? Reza Khalili did his part. Now tell us what was your part before start whining.


Cost-of-Progress

Along "party" lines

by Cost-of-Progress on

It never fails. Look who is bad mouthing this blog and you'll be looking at regime apologists and self-appointed "iran lovers".

Gimme a break and loosen that turban.


hamsade ghadimi

maziar jan, don't worry

by hamsade ghadimi on

maziar jan, don't worry about reza shah and akhoonds.  as i commented earlier, cyber basijis don't want to talk about the topic at hand: phony fatwas by akhoonds who make their living through taghieh.  they rather talk about reza shah, cia, war, peace and tomboon faati.... anything to change the subject of PHONY FATWAS. :)


Arash Kamangir

Baghdad conference has failed

by Arash Kamangir on

According to latest news the Baghdad conference has failed. This can be celebrated by the opposition and we can look forward to the next step which is military option.


rrrezz

Bravo Reza Khalili. Uncle Sam will buy you a "khorus qandi".

by rrrezz on

Failing to stop Iran to obtain the know-how of making nuclear weapons "would" be just one in a series which includes Isreal, Pakistan and North Korea. In future even Saudi Arabia may be added to this list. Forbidding a country from obtaining such a know-how is ultimately tantamount to fobidding knowledge which in principle is not possible.   After all the lesser countries look up to the more powerful ones. And what they have done? In fact US and Britain have not followed their nuclear agreements with the former Soviet Union and they have also been working on the developement of  "tactical nuclear weapons" even though they are members of the nonproliferation treaty.  Lastly I don't think any rational person takes Khamenei's fatwa serious. The point, that the author naively misses, is that politicians (including ones that Khalili cites) do not usually say what they mean.  Dear Mousa67, plaese come and piss more of your exelence into our discussion. 

MOOSIRvaPIAZ

2 kalame az madare aroos

by MOOSIRvaPIAZ on

Reza Kahili, the Iran "expert" so called "ex CIA agent" (my dad is captain kirk). the guy whose claims are wrong 99% of the time. 

 

Thanks for playing! 


maziar 58

S K khanoom

by maziar 58 on

Did lateReza shah Reallykilled Akhoond?

Maziar


مآمور

,,,

by مآمور on

 من فقط در کار ماموری تجربه دارم کارم ؛ پوشیدن ساعت امگا و کار کردن با کی بورد!!
البته چند تا شکنجه گر خوب سراغ دارم! کنتکرات میگیرن  دسته جمعی یا دونه دونه! با جواز معتبر و شماره بازگانی!!

I wear an Omega watch


Soosan Khanoom

Only a torturer loves to torture

by Soosan Khanoom on

This site is filled with hate. Hate and anger destroy wisdom.  I am not sure if we are going to have a better future for our country when we have people who are intoxicated with hate, who are consumed by ignorance, who love to torture, who love to bomb and who love to kill as the opposition.   

By the way, Reza shah killed many akhonds. Now Akhonds are killing ...  I see no difference ...  and if you think one is justified over the other then you need a serious help.  Now if IRI falls and then people like you want to start killing and torturing and go for another round of torture show in Evin then why even bother !!

It is about time to stop the cycle of violence once and forever.  Otherwise we  just keep changing the Khar's Paaloon.  

I am not going to discuss this further.   I feel so sad seeing many people on this site still struggling with the demons inside.  You do not have to convince me of anything and do not worry you have the entire Cyber hate army to back you up and applaud for you.  

I am out of here.  

 


مآمور

that makes two of us

by مآمور on

CIA agent?? well then, u can believe him as much as u believe an Iranian Mamor!!

interestingly enough, those who have put their faith on me and took my words do believe this Reza agent too!!

propaganda at its peak!!put the name of Mamor, agent, spy.....out there, then every body believe u!!

I wear an Omega watch


vildemose

Dear DK: You might have a

by vildemose on

Dear DK: You might have a point.

 

All Oppression Creates a State of War--Simone De Beauvoir


Adib Masumian

I don't advocate war with Iran

by Adib Masumian on

But I agree with Siavash in that those who are criticizing Reza should at least read his book. I read it myself when it came out a couple of years ago and found it so compelling that I finished it in about two days. It's a very interesting and convoluted narrative.

I personally try to make a habit of watching interviews of a person, or reading some of their views online if available, before passing judgment (lots of people say we shouldn't do that at all, but we are human, after all ;)). It's not a bad practice.


Darius Kadivar

No they aren't .. Obama knows exactly what He wants

by Darius Kadivar on

With Sarkozy out (and Merkel who will follow him out soon too) Obama wants and has his hands free to seek appeasement with the mullahs:

 

 

For the sake of Europe, Sarkozy must stand down by Trita Parsi

 

And The French Socialist Stooges will help him in achieving just that:

 

 

Ex French socialist PM "private" Tehran visit Embarrasses Newly Elected Hollande

 

Obama's current opposition and tough stance on the IRI is just for the show and smoke for the eyes. He actually wants to make history once re elected just like Nixon with China in order to justify his undeserving Nobel Peace Prize:    

 

Nixon in China 1972

 


You will see All the regular so called "Liberal Democrat's" ( i.e: Read Usual Suspects) like Houman Majd, Jon Stewart Fareed Zakaria, MAziar Bahari, Ramin Jahanbegloo, Massoud Behnoud and other IRI Lobbyists will do all the explaining to convince mainstream medias ( BBC PErsian, CNN, VOA, France 24 etc ) into believing in all this neo liberal crap that the IRI is reformable ... 

 

 

You will see ...

 


Just you wait ... Voting Obama equates indirectly voting for Trita Parsi ... 

 

Not that Mitt Romney is my cup of tea and I will definitively not vote for a Mormon turncoat no more than for demagogue neo cons  but as an Iranian American who advocates Regime Change and not merely 'reform' of the IRI I definitively won't vote for Obama for a second term as I did for his first election ...

 

Obama may be good for America ... He is a disaster for Europe and definitively for Iran on the long run ...

 

He will legitimize the IRI and you will all fall for it too just as you did when you fell for Khatami's smiles ...

 

I actually won't be surprised to see Khatami and the Reformist make a comeback as a treat from Khamenei to Obama his "muslim" brother ...

 

 

Fool me once fool me twice ...

 

but mark my words for the future:

 

 

OU BA MA NEEST !  (*)

 

(*) Translation: He is NOT with Us ...

No more than he is with the Syrians or was with the Libyans ( Sarkozy having done all the major decision makings and efforts in spearheading the Libyan Campaign) 

 


Harpi-Eagle

Short and to the Point ...

by Harpi-Eagle on

1)  Haven't any of these guys (Obama, Clinton, etc) heard of "Taghieh"?  That is the Eeeezlam approved version of lie and deceit.

2)  If the Laat and Chaghookesh IRGC + the Pervert Rozehkhoon get their hands on a working nuke, the faith of Iranian people is sealed for the next 50 years.

3)  The powers that be (US + UK) will take care of these murderers if and only if it is in the interest of their giant oil companies and other conglamorates (Namely British Petroleum).

4)  As a large group of people residing in US, UK, France, and other western countries, why can't we (Iranians) have a strong and effective lobby working for the interest of our country and nation like the Jewish people have?  Pity.

5)  If as a lobby we can convince the western countries that it is in their best interest to help us get rid of the IRI Bastards, then it won't necessarily require an all out war, but perhaps a large scale "Covert Op" entailing smuggling small arms (Shotguns, Uzis, handguns, etc) into Iran and also setting up broadcasting stations just outside the country's borders to have propoganda on the same wavelength as "Seda va Sima" 7 days a week.

6)  Small arms are extremely effective for battling these savages because it is waging "Pshycological Warfare".  The next Basiji traitor or IRGC goon or Fati Komando for that matter that tries to harass a young Irani girl or boy and gets his/her face blown off by a sawed off shotgun will have a tremendous effect on th rest of the traitors.  Let's face it, IRGC and the rest of them are no longer a fighting force who believes in their cause, they're in it only because of the financial benefits and perks.  Even if a small percentage does believe in what they are doing, we would be doing them a favor by sending them to their 72 Hoori. 

7)  Attention, all Cyber Basijis, IRI agents, Mamoors, etc, no where throughout this whole comment did I condone an all out war on our country, but I did and do support the use of violence against the "Vatan Foroosh" Basij, IRGC, Sister Zainab, etc.  So if you want to make any comments about this, make sure you read first.

 

Payandeh Iran, our Ahuraie Fatherland


Sassan1

Great summary and commentary Siavash joon

by Sassan1 on

I applaud you for your commentary. Afareen dadash.


hamsade ghadimi

cyber basijis are not

by hamsade ghadimi on

cyber basijis are not interested in discussing the topic of the blog that "fatwas can be meaningless."  they rather resort to ad hominem attacks.  here's an excerpt by an expert on iranian issue which makes the same exertion as the author of this article:

"Moreover, fatwas are issued in response to specific circumstances and can be altered in response to changing conditions. Ayatollah Khomeini modified his position on a number of issues during his lifetime—for instance, on taxes, military conscription, women’s suffrage, and monarchy as a form of government. Thus nothing would prevent Khamenei from modifying or supplanting his nuclear fatwa should circumstances dictate a change in policy.
Shiite tradition permits deception and dissimulation in matters of life and death, and when such tactics serve the interests of the Islamic umma (community). Such considerations have almost certainly shaped Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, though it should be kept in mind that nearly every proliferator has also engaged in deception to conceal its nuclear activities."


Siavash300

I hear whining again and again without any suggested plan

by Siavash300 on

Seems we are not communicating on this site. CIA, KGB MOSSAD

and other koft o zahre mar. What is the suggestion? . How can we free our country from a bunch of a islamists ragheads who can't even control their body odors and they smell like a camel dirt. How? Forget CIA or KGB. Let's talk about ourselves. I love to torture mullahs and all those criminals who were shooting teenage Iranian girls in Evin Prison. I just love it. That is the day of my pride. Am I a bad person.? Let's ask that question from those families whose daughters were being raped by mullahs the night before their execution. I don't think it is appropriate to ask that question from people who are on payroll by ruling mullahs.  

 


Soosan Khanoom

You mean vs. real Jerks !

by Soosan Khanoom on

How on earth joining CIA makes one an Iranian hero?  So this Jerk fights torture with being paid by the inventor of all the torture in the world " CIA" ? 

OK then, Torture is good as long as it is done by the CIA or Savak..  

oh please ..... you guys are unbelivable.   


Siavash300

Good Iranian vs. real Hero Iranian

by Siavash300 on

Most of these west residing people are siting on their comfortable chairs and just whining against ruling mullahs in Iran. They never offer any clear strategie for overthrowing mullahs. Most likely they are happy to make their annual trip to Iran and see the misery of our people, but deep down in their heart they are happy that they don't live there, just visiting. They only whine against mullahs every now and then on I.C. As long as they have comfortable life in west, they are not concern about people inside Iran. No compassion for their country men/women under oppression of bunch of Islmist criminals. As a humanitarian gesture,they may whine sometimes. That makes them "Good Iranians".  Wouldn't be surprise, they perceive themselve as being patriatic LOL. They just nagging once in a while.

  On the other hand,  we are seeing one real hero who takes his life in his hand and actively fighting with ruling criminal gang in Iran. Look how these west residing people respond. Instead of admiring the guy, they try to belittle him and thousands and thousands derogatories.

     I have read Reza's book a while back. He clearly explains how he was witnessing the "Death Committee" in Evin prison was bringing teenager girls for execution in the front of his eyes. Shamelessly the same group were  chanting "Allah o Akbar" right after shooting teenage girl and very calmly they were going to the mosque inside the Evin and pray after shooting the girls.  I can't imagine decent peson witness such a scene and just to be quiet about it. That shakes the heart of any decent person.

    Initially, Reza was working on computer system in Evin Prison when he was witnessing those barbaric , savage and inhuman behavior of Islamic criminal gang.  His book is Very fasinating. I recommand Soosan Khanoom and Dr. Ala read the book first before jumping on the gun. Some of us are very good to put judgement on other people without even knowing that person. Isn't that what happened to shah and his admininstration?

Anyway, Reza is a brave person who has a heart for his people. Unlike some cowards behind computer keyboard he jeopardized his life and the life of his family for a great goal which is freedom of our country from the hands of Islamic criminal gang. My kudos to Reza Khalili 

Siavash


hass

"Reza Khalili" = fraud.

by hass on

LOL -- this is the same "Reza Khalili" who just a few months ago was scaremongering about an "Iranian EMP attack" on the US. Give me a break.


Thought

Thought believes Mullas are not capable to think logically

by Thought on

Thought adds the same statement about fanatics in all sides.

 


Azarbanoo

I agree with Dr. Mohandes & S5555

by Azarbanoo on

RK is not asking attack IRAN but telling the truth about IRR/IRI akhoonds.


Abarmard

A good scale

by Abarmard on

To view how close you are to MKO


Arash Kamangir

No value without Israel's agreement

by Arash Kamangir on

The bloody mullahs should not get too happy too soon as without Israel's agreement the Baghdad's conference has no value.


Simorgh5555

very good analysis

by Simorgh5555 on

To put faith and trust in the word of a thieving and lying ayhatollah is stupidity beyond the norm


Dr. Mohandes

Dr. ala

by Dr. Mohandes on

Dorood bar You:)

Hope things are going well for you. Mom and dad say hello:)

 


Soosan Khanoom

Thank you Mr. Ala .

by Soosan Khanoom on

Thank you Mr. Ala .. 

: ) 


Sassan1

To all you haters..

by Sassan1 on

I suggest you watch the following interview of Reza Kahlili by Erin Burnett.: http://cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/bestoftv/2012/...


Soosan Khanoom

Was I flagged because I used the word S""" ?

by Soosan Khanoom on

Ahhhh sorry ..... Ok let me correct it..  

He worked for both Revolutionary Guard and CIA. That's what I call noor ala noor !   

His opinion isn't worth a dime !!

How is it? I hope I am not offending any sweet soul on this site.  

 


mousa67

mrs soosan khanoom: please calm down

by mousa67 on

all this anger will raise your blood pressure giving you heart attack making you allah forbid an internet shahid. as a women shahid, you'd not have  much to look forward to in after life, if you see what  mean.

so, on behalf of moosad, may i offer you a drink to calm you down? what would you like? pepsi or coke?

same for bravest cyber warrier of them all; mr mo ala.

LOL 


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