Abarmard

Niloufar Parsi

Good points.

Thanks

Abarmard khan

very interesting read.

the next rounds of parliamentary and presidential elections may be important milestones. some predict that larijani is likely to become the next president. but it is hard to see how this would be a smooth process.

in terms of iran's strategic relations, i agree with your points to Azadeh. iran's regional and global standing is significantly deflated since the re-election of ahmadinejad. IRI has no revolution left to export anywhere. what is left of the IRI will be a useful ally to the US' agenda especially in afghanistan and iraq. at the same time, israel has been sidelined with the growing likelihood of a nuclear deal. as for the question of oil, western dominance of this sector is in fast retreat. iran and other producers have powerful allies in china, india and russia. this will become increasingly pronounced with a looming trade war between china and usa.

True, Azadeh

Is it even possible that the system will bend its knees towards people's demands? Yes, Possibilities are endless. The probabilities vary.

Happy Saturday

Maybe, Abarmard :-)

However, there are so many other factors, including unpredictable "incidences,"  both internal and external, that could spill over what we already know and change the expected course of Iran's future. Political predictions are tricky and often inaccurate, although stimulating for the mind.

Azadeh

Dear Azadeh

The Islamic Republic's support for Hezbollah will change politically. I believe that gradually the moral and political support that is rooted in the ideas of Khomaini will shrink smaller, but perhaps not totally diminish. I do not see any reason for the Islamic Republic to lose what it has as a security card against any possible Israeli aggression. They will try to keep their important assets, yet negotiate with the West to assure them of no "sudden" activity.

Keep in mind that Hezbollah is not in total control by the Islamic Republic!

The Islamic Republic is a name, you may call it people's republic. Names of governments don't change their true identity. It is as secular as any Islamic secular state!

Sepah is a military but also a capitalistic entity, and as any capitalistic organization around the globe, wants to eliminate competition for its survivor. In any bargain, if the IRCG realizes that there are higher opportunities than threats from entering the global market, will do so. Otherwise (and most probable) they will make a deal with the US and keep it quiet. Their bigger concern is their security rather than sanctions and economy. I would argue that they will try hard to keep sanctions in place since that's the market field that they are capable of gaining the most and blaming the West (for a lack of a better economy).

Mrs he changed about a month ago! I was 'shocked' too!

Maz Jobrani's face is a little slimmer and he also has some facial hair! But I can see they smile the same way ;-) 

Everything is sacred.

This is Abarmard? It took

This is Abarmard? It took me a minute to recognize him. Until I got to the comments I thought it was Maz Jobrani. What's with the avatar change? This is abarmardeh ghodratmand? Are you sure? He's COMPLETELY bald? So that was a cap on the previous avatar. This is too much for one single blog. I need to sit down.

On another note, maybe we shouldn't over intellectualize things. Good one abarmard.

New Iran & the future Iran-US relation

Dear Abarmad,

you say:

"Better relations with the West will fulfill the lack of internal security. The US can now offer security and support as it has for Iran's neighbors. And the Islamic Republic will take it. The US change of behavior is only because Iran is not a political/social and influential option/player for the rest of the region (anymore). The Iranian status is now downgraded to just a dictatorial state. That has never threatened any regimes in the West. Makes sense for the West and the world to work closely with Iran and offer their support."

Are you stating that the new Military Dictatorship of Iran will be devoid of Islamic ideology and will no more deliver arms to the Hamas, Hezbollahs, and various "insurgencies" in the neighbouring countries in exchange for "security and support" from the USA? That seems unlikely to me.

Also, there is no doubt the US Administrations *love* to have friendly relations with the regimes that are dictatorial in a clear-cut and unambiguous way. But are you saying that the financial ambitions of the foundations and industries belonging to the Sepah chiefs/ Pasdaran / Basijis/ Imam Mehdiists will be aligned with the interests of, for instance, the Big Oil that plans to construct pipelines along Afghanistan towards the oil-rich Caspian Sea regions? I think not.

What do you think?

Azadeh

Abarmard

I don't mean to criticize you, but I was wondering when was the last time you were in Iran?

Ananymouse

The Students who campaigned for mousavi were just way too young to remember anything about his time, his past 20 some years ago!

Do you not think that is a fact?

Abarmard, your theory about absolut dictatorship is correct.

Koodetah was no accident //iranian.com/main/blog/oktaby-0.  I would only rephrase your opening sentence by changing a 'wrong path' to 'the only path', as once koodetah was initiated, there was no turning back and the koodetachi knew it. hence, 'setade Koodetah' is the extremist of the extreme. Even without the Koodetah the islamic regime had reached a dead end on several fronts and that is even before the coming economic kenundrum (AN's unsupportable feeding of the edges to destroy the middle, funded by high oil prices) that will have hit hard a year or two down the road regardless. The war AN & co want is another wild card.

OKtaby

Anahid jaan everyone knows what Mousavi has done in the past

Mousavi's past is not the issue and has been discussed in length.  It's not as if our educated university students who campaigned and voted for him during the election and after the election were not aware. Nor was it forgotten by the older generation who also voted.

The issue is we think him risking everything is nothing. Yes he may back down completely one day and that day will be a milestone but we shouldn't be cheering for his resignation. Finding people "in places" who are willing to stand up is not easy. We need to keep not just the movement alive, but the opposition.

Everything is sacred.

Dear Anonymouse, Moussavi owes Iranian people much more

Dear Anonymouse, you wrote in your comment:"They may pay for this with their lives.  You may think it is easy being Khatami, Mousavi or Karoubi.  What value do we have for them?" 

When Moussavi was prime minister, thousands of political prisoners got executed.  So you could argue that what Moussavi has done so far is the least he has to do if there is any chance for him to be judged in favorable light by history.  Karroubi and Khatami don't have this issue to the same degree.  Especially Karroubi has shown bravery and will be judged as a national hero in future if he keeps opposing he regime as he has in past few months.

Abarmard jaan as we say: the problem once solved is easy!

Of course some place some time some how things will be better and Mousavi and Karoubi will eventually die!

We need to stick to what is working now.  Right now we need voices and we need leaders to stand up and we need to acknowledge them when they stand up, instead of saying oh well, they are out of it.

They may pay for this with their lives.  You may think it is easy being Khatami, Mousavi or Karoubi.  What value do we have for them?  Just that they've served their purpose and should now be tossed (not by the regime but by us, mind you) aside.  Oh well, everything is just that easy I suppose.

Everything is sacred.

What would Zizek say?

He is not a good writer, but makes his point clear:

//www.rokhdaad.com/spip.php?article205

I fear you may be right

Also,

"...a movement needs to provide support to answer demands for the working class." Thank you for bringing this up.

Dear Anonymouse

My father has seen a few great social movement in his time. It's rare to have such active society. The system will gain control in the coming years. The control on media will increase and a true movement will form. I estimated decades to show that it will take time. Where it will take or what it is (That movement), it's not known. It's beyond Karubi, Mousavi or my imagination. It is a theory, since it's the future. My prediction is based on the Iranian behavior and their search for democracy.

In my past writing about the election events, I concluded:

"If the system continues on its current path of humiliating the free minded and modern citizens, then the possibilities of a more open, less intrusive and democratic Iran will instead give room to a more invasive, dictatorial and heavily censored media. This would be a natural path since the government would not be able to answer a large portion of its society’s demands. Naturally, the underground press, anti system organizations and oppositions would blossom. One would expect the end of the system in the long run. The mistake that the Islamic Republic’s Sepah has done is the miscalculation that did not consider the people’s factor. If they do not change their behavior, which is very likely, then their end is around the corner as the reformists have warned (Since Khatami’s presidency)."

Please keep in mind that it's not the level of anger from the system that changes the demands of the population! but the possibilities and hope that people have about positive outlook of their future. 

Abarmard jan some used to say Shah was/could've been more brutal

Abarmard jan some used to say Shah was/could've been more brutal and my response was/is that how much more brutal could he have been.  I mean he did all he could and it was brutal enough.

So same goes here, it's been brutal enough.  But in response to your argument that brutality yields revolution, my response is where can you cite such an example?  Other than Iran. In many countries more brutality had yieleded military juntas with no chance of revolution.

Revolution ke bache bazi nist! After the Iranian revolution they closed the door on revolutions!  No?!

The reforms are gone for good, is another "theory"!  BTW do you mean polarized or pluralized?

Everything is sacred.

you're right Anonymouse

I am not downplaying the role of Karrubi and Mousavi, but I don't see them in a crucial leadership role either, but you're right:

We can disagree and make different predictions, but as long as we're supporting the Iranians and trusting their decisions without trying to impose our own wishes and agendas, all is good! :o)

Yes that was the video and I saw the green paint one too. 

IRANdokht

ID jaan well I don't agree but that's ok. Time will tell.

I don't agree that the involvement of Karoubi and Mousavi is hindering anything. I believe and as supported by many slogans we hear on youtube videos, that these 2 are still the leaders of this green movement.

I don't know what will happen if they're killed or arrested.  I believe as long as they support the green movement and have not given up on their leadership roles, they count.

I do not believe the green movement will become "revolutionary" with the disappearance of reform movement leaders.

These are what I called multiple theories.  Again I appreciated Abarmard's views on some elements but not the whole "theories".  We just have different opinions but time will tell and at some point hopefully we can come together and that's what really matters and what I mean by not import/exporting people!

I can't see the video now but if it is the one where people walk over Khamanei yes I saw that and it is great and I hope to see more.  Earlier, few weeks ago there was a picture where people had thrown green paint on Khamanei's billboard!

Everything is sacred.

Dear Anonymouse

Again you make some valid points here.

I don't disagree with you and believe that there are many possibilities. But it seems to me that the regime is moving to a centralized command similar to any dictatorial systems. If so, then we can assume what's the outcome.

Also my point was that Iranian society TODAY is pluralized, in other words, no one side can claim that they speak for the population.

You are correct, I am assuming that the reforms are gone for good, and the only way to save the rights of the people is ANOTHER revolution. I would love to be wrong in this. The system certainly has choices to change course. Possibilities are minute, but there. Hope that you are right and I am wrong.

Irandokht said it well.

if I may...

Dear Anonymouse,

Abarmard is actually very reasonable in the way he's analysing and predicting the changes. 

Right now, the presence and the involvement of the reformists and their clergy is actually giving the greens less of a revolutionary goals and they're still speaking of and limiting demands to "a fair election". The regime has been successful in reducing the demonstrators from millions to mere thousands by cracking down on them hard. But once the green movement is less of a reform movement and they do not speak from the safety of being more catholic than the pope or more khomeini doost than the IRI, the regime  will definitely show less inhibition in their crack downs. They can easily call everyone kaafar and their blood hallaal!

That is when the green movement will turn more revolutionary with more clear anti government stance.

I think that sounds like a very possible outcome, even if pessimistic in your view.

Yesterday we started seeing a lot more anti-Khamenei sentiments, that's probably why Mousavi and Karrubi were less visible and I think that is a good indication of where the movement is going.

Did you see this video:  //www.youtube.com/watch?v=67CHF49BB0o

IRANdokht

...

A very very good choice Abarmard jan ... Nush-e Jan my dear friend :=) .

Abarmard jaan the population was/is not pluralized, otherwise

Abarmard jaan the population was/is not pluralized and all divided and everything, otherwise there would not have been a revolution.  Sure there are some differences but you do not resolve those differences by import/exporting new people.  Right?! 

These are the same people.  People are people.  Many who were/are different find their differences in keeping their jobs or various other reasons.  But when the time comes, like in 1979 or 2009, they rally behind the same ideals.

They know what they want.  It's a little harder now than in 1979, but all roads does not lead to Rome (Qom in this case ;-).

The reason I said pessimist is that you seem to argue that 1) this regime will kill the movement with Iron fist then 2) reform movement will die then 3) "revolutionaries" will gain strength then 4) all hell will break loose.  You're mixing too much and too many theories.

Just keep it simple and trust the Iranian people know what they're doing.  Many (not you) in this website, do not have a clue yet they throw hissy fits by the minute! To no avail of course!

I think there are elements of your article that are valid. 

Everything is sacred.

Excellent blog, Abarmard. Points you raise all make good sense

Dear Abarmard, These days, I see so many blogs with weird ideas such as changing language in Iran that when I see an intelligent blog, I get overjoyed.  Thanks for writing your blog. Your ideas and opinions as exprssed in your blog make good sense. 

Good point

Anonymouse I agree that the slogans and demands of the people are similar to the 1979 revolution, however the "movement" is not the same movement. After the election the lights were shined for the people and population saw how divided and political (pluralized) the Iranian society truly is. 

The next step will come when people join forces and demand their rights. Interesting how we have struggled to reach a democratic Iran for the past century far ahead of our neighbors, and still at point zero, governmentally (not socially). I am not pessimistic, I am saying that it will take time. 

Thanks Dokhtar e Iranzamin. Happy Thursday :) 

Thank you Mr. Red Wine. I recently tried Franciscan (cabrenet-2003) and enjoyed it very much. If you can find it, give it a shot. 

Abarmard Aziz

مثل همیشه جالب و خواندنی نوشتید... به مورد استفاده رسید.

مدتی‌ بود که شما را رویت نمی‌کردیم،از زیارت مجدد شما بسیار خرسندیم.

پاینده باشید و تندرست.

Abarmard jaan your theory is all pessimistic. In ke nashod!

The ideals of the green movement are clear.  They are the same ideals of the 1979 revolution, Freedom, Justice and the pursuit of happyness!

All the mistakes that lead to the hijacking of the revolution is now for everyone to see.  As the movement gains more strength, as evidenced since June, the lines will be better defined.

Everything is sacred.

This is very well written/argued

I have to agree with you on many points here. You've explained it well, whether on the subject of the greens and Mousavi/Karrubi role or the support of the US and the world vs how democratic a gov is, you've been very accurate, logical and sensible.

Thanks!  

IRANdokht