The situation couldn’t be better for Iran. Russia’s move to Georgia and Iran’s quiet policy has given a new turn of events in the exciting Middle Eastern region. One could argue that the regime of Iran is not smart but lucky. The luck vs. procedural policies seems to be ten to one. For the time being the regime of Iran could not be happier and many Iranian officials are probably correlating their luck to God’s will, for many others the issue is just ”Whatever works”.
Recently the gaps between the Russian government and its Western counterparts have grown deeper and this can be translated to opportunity for Iran. It’s now vital for the Russia to keep Iran on her side and while US is arming and assisting the Georgian State, Russia will help Iran to counter attack the American influence. If the arm and influential race begins, the clear long-term winner in the region will be Iran, and probably Russia. In the long run, Russia and China along with Iran need to join forces to control the most valuable commodity on earth, the black gold. This concept of the cooperation between the triangular regional powers seems natural unless there are other incentives to stop this process.
Clearly all countries work for their own interest, and Russia is no exception. I believe that the Russian politicians are thinking along the line of the regional positioning, and with Iran, any country would be stronger in every aspect of the political geography. I believe we would witness the Nuclear Plant coming to life and Russia could begin to talk to the Iranians without shame or secrecy that they might have had before. The west must know this and probably looking for a incentive package to stop Russian political path, which would cut the hands of many westerners from the riches of the Middle East.
Iran is also looking to benefit from the Russian disobedient attitude towards the West. the Iranian government will successfully add one more card to their already strong foreign political positioning and feel more secure. If they get Russia openly, they become secure and continue stronger on their plan to “look to the East”. The Russians would protect Iranian interest because it is their own interest. Russia knows that it’s a matter of time that Iran and the US become political partners, and that would mean the end of the Russia, as we know it. They would do anything to stop such move from Iran, and that means supporting Iranian system with its anti western attitude.
The regional outlook is beginning to look different and the political map is changing quickly. The only negative point would be a war, but for now that seems unlikely. On the positive side, the more stable Iran, politically and militarily, translates to faster social progresses and positive economical changes. At the moment many Iranian officials are sitting on the floor and thanking God for the unbelievable luck that they have had. Since the end of the war, every geopolitical scenario has been for the benefit of the Iranian government, one after another. One wonders if regionally the IR has gotten it right!!
Recently by Abarmard | Comments | Date |
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خواست | - | Oct 23, 2012 |
پیوند ساقه ها | 5 | Jul 26, 2012 |
رويای پرواز | 14 | Jan 24, 2012 |
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Saeed Malekpour: Prisoner of the day | Lawyer says death sentence suspended | Dec 03 |
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احسان نراقی: جامعه شناس و نویسنده ۱۳۰۵-۱۳۹۱ | Dec 02 | |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Prisoner of the day | 46 days on hunger strike | Dec 01 |
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گوهر عشقی: مادر ستار بهشتی | Nov 30 | |
Abdollah Momeni: Prisoner of the day | Activist denied leave and family visits for 1.5 years | Nov 30 |
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Habibollah Golparipour: Prisoner of the day | Kurdish Activist on Death Row | Nov 28 |
Racism, Not Defence, At the Heart Of Israeli Politics
by Enki Catena on Thu Sep 11, 2008 05:54 AM PDTRacism, Not Defence, At the Heart Of Israeli Politics
Dear Abarmard
by IRANdokht on Wed Sep 10, 2008 07:12 AM PDTGood to see your smiling face on these pages again! :0)
I have a question: has there been any development in the world and in the region especially in the past 5-6 years that has not helped strengthen the IRI regime?
It all happens in their favor and it's not an accident or coincidence either.
IRANdokht
Zion - You're Correct
by Anonymous Observer (not verified) on Wed Sep 10, 2008 06:29 AM PDTThanks Zion. I have said this before. To the Islamo-left, whatever the U.S. does is imperialism, colonialism, warmongering, etc...But when Russia invades a soverign nation it's the best thing that has happened since sliced bread!!
Plus, these people don't look at the other side of the coin, and that is that Russia will use Iran as a bargaining chip in its dispute with the West and will sell Iran out in a heartbeat if that serves its larger interests.
And, yeah, this fantasy about Iran, China and Russia forming an "axis of power" against the West...good luck boys....China has such enormous economic ties with the West that any disruption will cause its flourishing economy to collapse. It will not dare risk such a move...
Lastly, like or not, a lot in this world rides on military power, and these days the U.S. is the most powerful nation in the world. Buying a bunch of 1950's vintage Scuds from North Korea and calling is "Shahab" does not make you a military power. It makes yuo a dillusional dufus!!
Pathetic
by Anonymous Observer (not verified) on Wed Sep 10, 2008 06:18 AM PDTThis site has become the sounding board for every anti-Semite, paranoid, Jewish conspiracy obsessed, Israel hating individual around the world. Some of these people are apparently not even Iranians, but are simply attracted to this site because they find the freedom to post anti-Semitic comments and discuss them with other like minded anti-Semites.
Look at this post by "Enki Catena" whose name does not even seem Iranian. He / she is rambling on about a thousand year conspiracy by Jews!!! Amazing!!! This is what Nazis used to say! And the comment is allowed to be published on this site?!!!
Bravo, Mr. Javid. You have become the Godfather of the International Federation of Anti-Semites!!!
Ebi and DK
by Abarmard on Wed Sep 10, 2008 06:15 AM PDTDK, thanks for the song, it was a great show and I still play the song on piano. great memories:)
Ebi, long time no hear, life was crazy, now coming back to semi normal.
Good to hear from you:)
Abarmard aziz
by ebi amirhosseini on Wed Sep 10, 2008 04:46 AM PDTlong time no see ! welcome back !.
Welcome Back Abarmard ;0)
by Darius Kadivar on Wed Sep 10, 2008 03:07 AM PDTBy the way does that mean I can finally see the last Episode of Michel Strogoff ? ;0)
//iranian.com/main/blog/darius-kadivar/nostalgia-remember-michel-strogoff-nadia
Kourosh Yaghmaei-sings Michael Strogoff :
Fair is fair
by amirkabear4u on Wed Sep 10, 2008 02:48 AM PDTAgain anyone who expresses himself in a fair manner about Iran is all the bad things on earth. Stranger than that is those who like to see themselves democratic and talk of freedom are suffering from this problem.
Yes Iran is at the moment lucky for the opposition like it or not. Also lucky because as time passes by, people gradually coming to the conclusion maybe it is US faults after all try to interfear in evry country.
Put it like this if US is busy with the old enemy, IRI is having a party. What is so difficult about this to understand?
Also worth considering it maybe difficult to agree or imagine if US invades Iran and Russia do nothing then the Russians lose a lot more.
And lets remember Iran and IR government are two different things. One is a country and the other is some sort of animal or maybe a combination of them such as a zoo.
Mehdi Mazloom1
by Maryam Hojjat on Wed Sep 10, 2008 01:52 AM PDTI agree with you in this matter 100%. I think Abrarmard is in dillusion.
I'm so used to
by Kurdish warrior (not verified) on Wed Sep 10, 2008 12:03 AM PDTthese leftist IRI oppologist whom are dillusional about reform within IRI...whom basically spit on the lives of those who paid with their lives asking for freedom...and they call themselves Iranian.....or those idiots who either blame Shah or Zionist for our current situation in Iran...Iran will be super power when justic and democracy exist withim itself..IRI is more like communist regime in soviet union which soon or later will collapse..
Abarmard..
by Parthian on Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:53 PM PDTSorry dude, I have to tell it to you like it is.. you are one of the most delusional, goofy guys I have seen on this site. You are "out" there man, and by "out" , I mean bed, bath, beyond, in the beyond section.
What is the definition of Power? What is the root of genuine power? You people running around talking about Iran as a regional power, or in some powerful position have a very skewed definition of power.
Iran resembles soviet union of the 1970's, in good geopolitical position in some respect, but extremely fragile, and weak internally.
Iran is at best a paper tiger.
It's political positioning
by Abarmard on Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:32 PM PDTExplanation for those who misunderstood:
It's a race for position. You could underestimate either parties in the equation and most probably you would end up on the losing end.
The domestic policies and politics in Iran are very different of the foreign policies, don't see that and you don't see the regional board.
Advances of the western, specifically the American military in the front yard of Russia is displeasing to the Russian government, this is not based on any love of any country for the other, such as Iran or China....
In this scenario, if US attack Iran, Russia will benefit the most, and with the price of oil going as high as one could imagine, Russia will gain more than any country. This would translate to a Russian power house and the game would be against the US interest.
The US and Russia would want Iran on their side, since with Iran the balance will be shifted to the country that has Iran! In other words, Iran is in a position of demand for the time being.
Any time period would be nothing but beneficial to Iran, and while China or Russia won't think twice to turn their back on Iran, Iran might have already gained enough, much more than today, to have positioned herself regionally!
In any case, as long as no war, Iran will be the winner. The definition of winner is the chance for the Iranian people to reevaluate the regime and push for social change. That would only come once Iran can't claim an enemy that is ready to bite.
Hajminator, absolutely. Our problem has been just that, lack of strategy, leadership and vision.
Finally, Israel in this equation is irrelevant.
Iran’s quiet policy has
by ...Anonymous (not verified) on Tue Sep 09, 2008 09:44 PM PDT>Iran’s quiet policy has given a new turn of events in the exciting Middle Eastern region.
Exciting? Very strange choice of adjective but I have come to expect bizarre and odd comments and posts from you.
Iran neither has the Capital base nor the technolgical base to be any kind of 'meaningful' power. The only power Iran has the 'bully' and 'terrorizing' power of terrorist thugs.
What is funny is that these ali asghars
by samsam1111 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 07:34 PM PDTAfter chanting death to America back in V-ran all end up begging American consulate & kissing their A...$ to get in America & spend their stolen blood & oil money in America...buncha half breed taazis..
Re: The usual complain (to Mehdi Mazloom)
by shinie head on Tue Sep 09, 2008 07:23 PM PDTMehdi
You are starting to sound like "Sarah Pile-on" and her neocon bretheren. Hope you are OK. She makes a similar argument against Obama and democrats, AS WELL AS HER OWN PARTY. The fact is that her party has been governing Wash Dc for the last 8 year!
Drink some very Cold Dough!
With that I mean the
by jamshid on Tue Sep 09, 2008 07:18 PM PDTWith that I mean the thousands (perhaps hundreds of thousands) of young and old Iranians who died under the boots of foriegn powers (with the help of their henchman Shah)
That is 600,000 Iranian men killed by the Shah, according to your great emaam, Khomeini. His 1978 tapes are still around where he made this claim. That is 5 percent of Iran's adult male population.
Now we have you regurgitating that old crap of lies after 30 years.
Funny ...
by Zion on Tue Sep 09, 2008 07:17 PM PDT... how when it comes to Russia and China, it is participation and power. With the US or other democracies, it is imperialism and being colonial puppets. Very amusing.
The last occupation of Iran
by Mehran-001 (not verified) on Tue Sep 09, 2008 07:09 PM PDTwas done by Soviet union when they annexed Azarbaijan. U.S. Can be a good friend of Iran once the Mullah's are gone.
The usual complain
by Mehdi Mazloom on Tue Sep 09, 2008 06:00 PM PDTsoufi writes:
With that I mean the thousands (perhaps hundreds of thousands) of young and old Iranians who died under the boots of foriegn powers (with the
help of their henchman Shah) working to rid Iran of the
foriegn parasites and their influence on our culture, economy, and
politics.
First, when was it last time Iran was occupied by the West like other states (Africa, India, Pakistan, the British mandate in ME, etc.. In fact last occupier was some 1000 years ago. (occupation by Islamic fundamentalism - yes that is true even to date ).
Secondly, Independence and authority, one does not get them on silver platter. rather they are earned. It is rather tiring to read from good and honest Arabs & Iranians continuously whine about some occupation which had ended some 60 years ago. India, Hong Kong, large part of Africa, they also were occupied by foreign powers. Instead of complaining and blaming it on others, they picked up some of the positive attributes from their former occupiers (UK), incorporate them into their societies without losing their own national or historical identity, and look where there are now.
I must jawbone with other posters with similar claims. had the Arab & Iran been building the type of society which relies on the population itself to provide the economical, educational, industrial and political strength, instead of their brutal and backward military or religious rulers, then western military powers wouldn't be able to march in these countries and do pretty much whatever they wish - including, Yes occupy and run local governments.
If our educated abramard thinks that, with the type of oppressed society to which these akhoodah have been leading the Iranians, and Iran's damaged relationship with the rest of the world, Iran will have any chance of winning a military conflict with the West, then think again. At the first massive attack on their military installations, IRI will follow the same path like the rest of them - completely disintegrate and fall apart.
It would be much cheaper and beneficial for Iran to trade in this despotic regiime (shipped to Alaska) with secular and democratically elected leaders, then possible sacrifice the lives of hundreds of thousands of Iranian young man serving the IRGC who will bare the briunt of uncnecessary military conflict in the region
These Mullah have caused enough damage, it is time to replaced them with secular government which truly represent the will of all the people, not just the 20% who are close to the gravy and the ghorme' Sabzi handed by the Mullahs to buy loyalty and keep them in power..
Abamard
by Hajminator on Tue Sep 09, 2008 05:49 PM PDTI agree with your analysis. Iran now can claim to be a power in the Middle east and Mullahs inside don't fail to do it. The counter-reactions of Mubarak questing a part of Iran as Arab belongings or the barking of Gulf states proclaiming our 3 islands are signs that Arabs are worried of this power. What's questionable is Mullahs ability which brought this situation. Iran had this position in Shah's time, the coutnry's increasing power had been put back after the revolution. US hoped these 30 past years to create their great middle east before Iran reachs its state power once again? My question is: will this situation lead to more freedom inside or would these b... use it to keep their repression? I hope not, I've reached the point that one way to curb this regime is the unification of Iranians living abroad (my last blog entry)? What do you think?
More powerful Iran? What
by jamshid on Tue Sep 09, 2008 03:37 PM PDTMore powerful Iran? What are you standards for such judgement? A "powerful" country is one that is free and prospering, not one that is being oppressed and butchered.
Abarmard, the more time pass, the more I realize how naive you are.
Since when it,s called " Iran"?
by samsam1111 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 03:27 PM PDTYou rarely see Mullah regime in V-ran use the term "Iran" ..It,s either "Iraneh -Eslami", "Jomhouriyeh-eslami" or "vataneh-eslami" Always pasvan & pishvand....Guess "Iran" here is for North American audience!..fair is fair I agree that on the surface V-ran is more powerful than lets say 2 yrs ago but the more believable heading should have been:
"Increased power for Pan-Ommatist regime of V-ran"
cheers!
Yes, the greedy bastards are in trouble
by Mehdi on Tue Sep 09, 2008 02:19 PM PDTThe neocon/imperialists/capitalist/zionazis conglamorate and theier extreme greed has backfired! Let's hope this will give Iran a bit more stability and like you said, helps empower the people.
Right on the money, but ....
by soufi on Tue Sep 09, 2008 02:42 PM PDTMr. Abarmand:
I agree with most of your analysis. However, I think it is not the "luck" fator that has worked in favor of Iran over the last 30 years and for Iranians. -- no matter how smart or dumb the IRI governments over the years have been. I think it is the "divine" factor (not god, mind you!), With that I mean the thousands (perhaps hundreds of thousands) of young and old Iranians who died under the boots of foriegn powers (with the help of their henchman Shah) working to rid Iran of the foriegn parasites and their influence on our culture, economy, and politics. I think their blood is not wasted. I think if there is justice in this world (and I believe there is) -- whether we believe in God or not -- we are starting to witness that the guilty will someday pay the price, and that the victim's voices can be heard.
My deepest respect to our Iranian young and old (especially Dr. Mosadegh) who died while trying to tell us that there can be a better life if we have an independent Iran.
Regards.
wishfull thinking
by MRX1 (not verified) on Tue Sep 09, 2008 02:04 PM PDTThe relationship that U.S has with china and russia is thousend times more important than any of these countries having any relationship with Iran! At the 23rd hour russia and china will jump in a U.S band wagon and leave mullah's by themselves. If that was not the case, the mullah's and aghazadehs wouldn't continously rob people blind and send the money to Dubai, canada, Australia and god knows where else....They know the end will come sooner or later.
right now sure it's a great time for russia and china to exploit iran and sell their junks to Iran. Junk militery hardware from Russia and loads of crap from china. all is well in IRI.
I am afraid these are wishful thinking
by Mehdi Mazloom on Tue Sep 09, 2008 01:54 PM PDTAbarmard,
I command you for the rosy picture to which you paint the regime in Tehran. However, when the Chinese, and the Russian themselves have declared - Iran current regime should not have nuke weapons in its possession, they mean it.
That "black gold" is by far more golden to the western economies, who's vital national security and viabilities are at stake, they are not going to stand idle and let bunch of Mullahs dictate their lives. They wil act and act decisively.
Russia / China - Iran relationship has lot to do with self interest and outright MONEY then shared political or religious ideology. Iran is only worth to China or Russia as much as its last tomman (Euro or Dollar). Both countries have their own Islamist fanatic withing their borders who give them plenty of headache. Neither China nor Russia are dumb enough to get into bed with same religious fanatics who shares (and sometimes supports) the same religious ideology as their own Islamists.
Given the overwhelming opposition to the Mullahs among the Arab and Sunnis in the region, you seem to give too much credit to the Mullahs.
Finally, whatever one views the Yankees, Americans (the Israelis, or the Europeans), they did not reach such social, economical and military sophistications because they are stupid. They use their big heads to win over their opponents. Suffice to look at Iraq these day to see how that tactic worked.
What make anyone believe that, all these maneuvers and pretentious posture from China and Russia (and EU) are not part of a very elaborate and sophisticated plan to put the Mullahs to sleep, with intended goal to replace this illegal-immoral-despotic-corrupt-backward-fanatic-olagha, khara, akhmagha e regime with more secular government. They just want to do it as bloodless as possible.
Stay tuned my friend.