Iranian Identity and the Future of Iran

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Iranian Identity and the Future of Iran
by Ahang Rabbani
28-Apr-2009
 

ACI stands for Association des Chercheurs Iraniens, or in Persian, Anjuman-i Pazhuhishgaran-I Iran [Association of Iranian Researchers]. This organization has recently conducted an interesting poll on the Internet.

ACI invited Iranians to fill in a questionnaire and 4,000 valid responses were received, of which half were from Iranians living in Iran. ACI performed a preliminary analysis of this data, which was posted some time ago in Persian. However, ACI has now presented the results of a more detailed analysis of 20-29 year-olds living in Iran (this group forms the largest centile in Iran’s population). Of course this is a highly self-selected group and not representative of the whole of Iran's population, but it is probably representative of what young urban people are thinking.

Although state-published figures declare 99.34% of Iranians as Moslems, almost 40% of this age group declared itself in this survey as without any religious convictions. Furthermore, almost 22% declared that they have turned against religion.

In response to the question: “My religion is...”, 30% of men and 15% of women had said “no religion”, 3% of men and 3.4% of women had put Baha’i and it was the largest group after Islam (which had 62% of men and 77% of women).

However, in response to the section "My religious viewpoint/conviction", if one adds together those that ticked the box "secular" and those that ticked "I have no religious conviction", it adds up to 78% of men and 70% of women. Only 15% of men and 22% of women ticked "I practice my religion". Only 6% which remained constant throughout the survey declared that their religious beliefs had grown stronger (their other answers were in support of the Islamic Republic).

Interestingly, in view of all of the anti-Baha’i material that has been broadcast on the Iranian media, when asked what media sources they trusted, only 10% said they trusted the Islamic Republic's sources, while the majority trusted Voice of America and BBC.

In response to the question "How do you think the Islamic Republic will evolve?" only 8% of men and 0% of women thought it would be for the better - the rest ticked either "changing for the worse" or "towards confusion and chaos". When asked "How do you view the Islamic Republic?", 84% of men and 80% of women ticked the "negatively" or "very negatively" boxes.

With regard to the future, how they viewed the future, 79% of men and 86% of women ticked either "with complete hopelessness" or "with relative hopelessness".

When asked "Are you thinking of leaving Iran?", 62% of men and 56% of women ticked the box, "extremely" or "very much". And another 20% of each ticked "a little".

Interesting enough, in answer to the question "I agree with the mixing of politics and religion" (in other words the vilayet-i faqih of Khomeini, known as the rule of jurists), only 5.5% of men and 4.4% of women said they agreed.

In summary these results would seem to indicate that Iranians in this age group are rapidly losing their religion and are much less religious than Americans and about on a par with Europeans; that the government is widely disliked and distrusted; that most Iranians view the future very negatively and would like to leave the country.

You can read the full results in a downloadable PDF: //www.aciiran.com/English%20Ex%20Sum.pdf

It should be noted that last year ACI issued a statement in defense of the Baha'is in Iran.

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faryarm

As Long As We Have..

by faryarm on

As Long As We Have such "eloquent" and "fairminded" adversaries, such as Reza41 and friends; no need to respond. Their motives are abundantly clear and their lack of any moral balance exposes their dark intentions.

Besides when one does challenge them; they have no pertinent answer but personal attacks.

Then Again; thats is in a Nutshell precisely their record of injustice and history of AntI Bahai attacks.

 


default

پرتقال اسرائیلی میل بفرمایید.

1hamvatan (not verified)


خاک بر سر جمهوری اسلامی ترسو.. 70 ملیون جمعیت.. از کشور 3 ملیونی اسراییل مثل سگ میترسد...و فقط بلد واق واق کنند...آمار داره واقعیت وضع کشور را نشون میدهد. ملت همه در عزا هستند.


alborz

آقا رضا ۴۱، چون شما اذعان دارید...

alborz


که دست خودتان نیست که فحاشی می‌کنید و در نتیجه اعتقادات اسلامی شما در رفتار و گفتار شما موثر نیستند، شاید بتوانید از بیان حضرت بها‌الله الهام بگیرید.

(ای ظالمان ارض )

 از ظلم دست خود راکوتاه نمائيد که قسم ياد نموده‌ام از ظلم احدی نگذرم و اين عهدی است که در لوح محفوظ محتوم داشتم و بخاتم عزّ مختوم.


Reza 41

چرتیده بودی غیرتت بگرفتند و غارتت دادند

Reza 41


جناب آقایان: از حیله و مکر دست بر دارید سیاه کاری کم کنید پا بر رگ غیرت وطنی ما نگذارید ما امتحان پس داده ایم صدها سال هم تبلیغ وطن فروشیتان را به نام جهان وطنی بر روی ما انجام دهید نتوانید وطن ما را با این فریب در حلوقوم دولت جهانی صهیونیستها قرار دهید برای هر دانه از شنهای وطن عزیزمان تا آخرین نفس و نفر میجنگیم  و به این تعصب وطنی که مزاحم اربابان شما ست افتخار میکنیم  . آقای فریام منتظرم مدارک شما را دال بر دشمنی بین آقایان نوری ها را که فرمودید ببینم و بعد باید اجازه دهید مدارک دال بر روابط حسنه این آقایان  را رو کنم آنهم از بساط خودتان و نه هیچ جای دیگر .
در ضمن ؛ مدت حد اقل ١٠٠ سال این اربابان زرنگتان روزگار این مردم را سیاه کردند خواهر و مادر و دختران ما را گ.... ند, ولی تاکنون از سرکردگان تا خداینتان جز الواح مدح سنای این کفتاران حریص دیده نشده و چیزی  که در نکوهش این شیاطبن  گفته باشند به گوش نرسیده است حال اگر دو ناسزا به این شیادان غارت گر برای خالی کردن عقده دلمان بپرانیم  چرا به غیرت شما بر میخورد؟ "از خود سوال کنید" . و اگر سخن از بیضه آمد منظور حس منشعب از آن بود و تمثیلی بیش نبود ترا گران نیافتد و و کل قصیده ای بود موزون بر "آهنگ ". آن چه از دل بر آید بر دل نشیند البرز جان.


alborz

فریار جان، متوجه شدید که آقا رضا۴۱...

alborz


با لحن احترام فحاشی می‌کند؟  ایشان همان کسی است که دم از دین و دینداری میزند ولی‌ وقتی‌ با حقیقت آمار مواجه میشود به ادبیات اسلامی مخصوص به خود رجوع می‌کند و دم از وطن پرستی‌ میزند ! انگار که دین ایشان مهاری بر دهانشان نیست و الفاظی که بکار میبرند از همان ادبیاتشن ملهم هست.

این هم مدرکی‌ دیگر در اثبات آمار ذکر شده و این که چرا ایرنیان از امثال ایشان که دم از "امر به معروف و نهی از منکر" میزنند بیزارند !

روز خوش،

البرز

آقا رضا لطفا مقاله زیر را که توسط خانم لیلا گیلانی در همین سایت نوشته شده بخوانید.  مطمئن هستم که یادوار خوبی‌ برای ورشکستگی دیدگاه شما میباشد.

به گفته ایشان - " ظلم بر زنان بنیاد هر جامعه اسلامی است." 

//iranian.com/main/2009/apr-30


Ahang Rabbani

url please

by Ahang Rabbani on

Dear Faryar,

Could you please post the url for the informative video on the meaning of the "Seal of the Prophets"?  Unfortunately, the video cuts at min 5.

Many thanks in advance. 


amigo19

فریا رم عزیز

amigo19


فریا رم عزیز از اینکه لطف فرمودید و این کلیپ را در باره خا تم اننبین فرستادید ممنون هستم.متاسفانه در دقیقه ۵ صدای آن خاموش میگردد

اگر احتمال دارد این کلیپ را بطور کامل بفرستید .با عرض تشکر

agha Reza shoma kheili bi adab hastid, lotfan nezakat ra hefz befarmaid

 mamnoon

Hazrat Rasool Akram az dashten peyrovi chon shoma razi nistand,


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Re: Reza41

by AnonymousX (not verified) on

Your comments in the past indicate that you are a supporter of the IRI.

Your "cliche" response, which includes attacking the messenger and accusing him of being a "nokar" is so IRI like, that one would think you all have been taught the same methods since you were born.

If there is anyone who has lost his "beyzeye gheyrat", it is you.


faryarm

...آقا رضا هنوز منطضر هستیم

faryarm


...آقا رضا هنوز منطضر هستیم شما بگویید معنای این 

 

این همه سوره در رابطه با آمدن پیغمبری بعد از حضرت محمد چیست ؟

 

 

در ضمن  

شما اول تاریخ رابطه و نادوستی آقا خان نوری با  بهاعالله را مطالعه بفرمایید بعد قضاوت بکنید 


Reza 41

سازی دیگر از آهنگی آشنا

Reza 41


جناب آهنگ ربانی
 شکی نیست ساز این آهنگهای شما نیز در انگلیس موطن این روباه پیر نواخته می شود, این قبیل سازها را قبل از به شهادت رساندن قهرمان ملی ایران میرزا تقی خان امیر کبیر(رحمه الله علیه) توسط  نوکر معروف انگلیس یعنی مفت خور و چاپ لوس آقا خان نوری (از بستگان سرورتان حسین علی نوری بهاالله دست نشانده دیگرشان) در گوش افریته مادر نابکار ناصرالدین شاه نواخته می شد و نتیجه این سازها  کشتار چپاول و ریپ و خشکاندن عمدی چاههای نفت بیش از ١٠٠ سال ایران ما توسط این اربابان شما بود . بس نبود؟؟؟؟ غیرت و خجالت  هم والله خوب چیزیه

پوزش :فراموش کردم اربابانتان بیضه غیرت وطنی شما را کشیده اند بنابر این برای شما سخت است که حب وطن را درک کنید


Maryam Hojjat

There are a lot of HOPE for IRAN!

by Maryam Hojjat on

Very hopeful satistics from your analysis. 

Payandeh IRAN & IRANIANS


faryarm

Methodology.

by faryarm on

You can read the full results in a downloadable PDF://www.aciiran.com/English%20Ex%20Sum.pdf

 Methodology 

 

The Survey was prepared in Persian for those in Iran and in Persian and 

English for the participants outside Iran. The questions were adjusted for those 

answering from outside Iran. 

 

The questionnaire for those living inside Iran consisted of 33 substantive 

questions including 8 demographic questions.   

 

The questionnaire for those living outside Iran consisted of 34 substantive 

questions including 12 demographic questions.   

 

During the three month period (1 October – 31 December 2007) 5112 forms 

were filled and returned. Redundant posts (votes with similar key answers) 

within a few minutes by the same IP address and the same user agent were 

filtered (1088 forms). 

 

Therefore, 4024 reliable answers were used.  2523 lived in Iran (72% male, 

28% female) and 1501 lived outside Iran (75% male, 25% female) of these 314 

chose to answer in English.  

 

The 20-29 years old age group made up 52.7% of the 2523 participants from 

Iran (59.6% men, 40.4% women).  

 

Internet was employed instead of face-to-face research in Iran because of the 

constraints involved. Face-to-face data gathering in Iran can be difficult for 

interviewers who may become liable for prosecution and imprisonment.  

 

According to Internet World Stats in December 2007 Iran had an estimated 

national internet usage of 18 million with an international penetration rate of 

25.6%, per ITU1.  This is a growth of 7100 percent in the 2000 – 2007 period. 

Internet World Stats estimated internet user in Iran to be 23 million as of March 

2008 with a penetration rate of 34.9%, per ITU2

 

The survey yielded demographic results similar to those available from the 

Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) and based on the national census carried out in 

Iran during 2006. 

 

 

1 

 //english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8611210365  

2 

 //www.internetworldstats.com/middle.htm   


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It was not a valid question

by Alborzi (not verified) on

Iranians by nature are not very religious, being the over whelming majority they take their religion as granted. This is not so in the minorities whose religion is what defines that group. As a personal experience, this ( girl ) neighbor of us, who was extremely poor and was either Armenian or Assyrian, refused to marry a much wealthier guy, just because he was moslem. The valid question would be if you had to choose between these relig.ions, which one you would identify more, I can bet you that most Americans think of themselves as secular, but if they had to identify between Christianity or Islam, they probably would lean to Islam not.


default

What are you talking about?

by RR (not verified) on

I have no qualm with any normative judgment anyone may make but for chrissake please don't publish rubbish as science. How exactly was this survey done? How was it designed? How was it randomized? What if someone's grandma or someone else's grand kid accessed the site 500 times and voted 500 times? Exactly what part of this survey is valid by scientific standards?

And if you are really interested I can do a casual survey online and show 75% of Iranians are blond!

Please, don't waste time and energy and then disseminate misinformation! This is like the other nonesense survey that said 700% of Iranians have Masters and PhDs. Of course if you ask people especially Iranians will say they have PhDs, are you kidding us?


Niloufar Parsi

makes sense

by Niloufar Parsi on

not sure how accurate this survey is. but surely nothing could ensure the rise of secularism in iran better than the rule of the mullahs. some glimmer of hope here.


amigo19

Excellent Analisis!

by amigo19 on

Thanks a lot for sending this. It is quite enlightening.

This regime will sooner rather than later find out about the consequence of their repressions,and injustice and like the previous regime will be remembered by generations to came  even worse as an unjust,hateful and repressive regime.

 I hope they could learn a lesson from the history.


alborz

It is now easier to understand why the regime's policies

by alborz on

... have become increasingly more repressive in every regard.

While one can debate a few percentages here and there, based on the demograhics of the sample group and its size,there is now a basis to consider the possibility that the majority of Iranians are disillusioned with Islam, the very faith which the regime has manipulated and proclaimed as its template for governance.

Furthermore, based on this data, the number of undeclared Baha'is in Iran is several times greater than the 300K+ Baha'is that are the target of persecutions in Iran.  The fruits of their sacrifices is now abundantly clear.

Alborz


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Dear Ahang Rabbani, What I

by Anonymous.friend (not verified) on

Dear Ahang Rabbani, What I meant was exactly what you are mentioning,No Muslem will declare himself a Bahai under such conditions but probably people who do not believe in any religion might tell they are Muslems.
SORRY FOR THE MISUNDERSTANDING!


minadadvar

Iranian Identity

by minadadvar on

Thanks for posting the result of this very interesting survey.


Ahang Rabbani

You might be right ...

by Ahang Rabbani on

Dear "anonymous.friend",

You might be right and there's a chance that some people fearing the regime have censored their true response.  But if that's the case, then that would mean they would end up saying positive things about regime when in reality they would feel negatively -- since no one in his right mind would bad mouth a feared regime when they actually feel positive about it. 

So, based on your point, the actual negative view of the regime is even higher than reported here.  For instance, consider the last point in the short write up above.  I mentioned that in answer to the question "I agree with the mixing of politics and religion" (in other words the vilayet-i faqih of Khomeini, known as the rule of jurists), only 5.5% of men and 4.4% of women said they agreed. 

If your analysis is correct, and I suspect it is, then in actuality the percentage of folks in 20-29 age group that support vilayet-i faqih is even lower than the reported 5.5%.

That is, based on this survey, we can conclude that more than 95% of the younger generation, 20-29 age, would reject the present mode of government in Iran.  And this age group is tomorrow's leaders.

Therefore, no matter how we analyze the results, the conclusion is devastating for the present regime.  It paints a complete failure on the most fundamental objectives of the Islamic regime and revolution.


faryarm

Are you sure on your bet?

by faryarm on

Dear Anonin your estimation then:

In summary these results would seem to indicate that Iranians in this age group are rapidly NOT losing their religion?

and are much MORE religious than Americans ?

that the government is widely Loved and Trusted?

that most Iranians view the future with HOPE ?

and would NEVER leave the country?


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I bet you

by Anonymous.friend (not verified) on

I bet you many people due to fear of being discovered by IRi agents on Internet,They do not mreveal their real preferences