Millions of people flood the street, and in a velvet revolution, mullahs and their families flee to Lebanon. Walking on a red carpet, furnished by the new government, we all set foot on Iran's soil, and are welcomed by cheering crowds, thanking us for all what we did for Iran and Iranians while we were abroad!
"You are most welcome", we reply. "Now which high office am I heading, and where are my car and driver?"
That may be your fantasy. But I am not interested to know what you'd like to see happen; I want to know what you think will in fact happen.
We are all considered Middle East experts among our American friends. We know it all, and we especially know how this IRI works. Here is a chance for you to tell us how good you are:
Make a prediction of what is going to happen in the upcoming presidential election. Regardless of it following a script or not, what do you think would happen:
1) Would there be a run-off? If so, who would be the run-off candidates?
2) Who would finally be 'elected' as the next president?
The grand prize is bragging rights (at least around here).
:-)
Yours,
Ali P.
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You PEOPLE
by amirkabear4u on Mon May 25, 2009 02:50 AM PDTreally believe this is an election to do this much discussion. Only real elections are worthy of debates.
This is just to give everyone a fulse feel of democracy.
If you cared to notice there are a lot of activites in Iran are for the sake of image and image alone.
Dear Ali,
by Bijan A M on Sun May 24, 2009 10:56 PM PDTAs much as I dislike my own prediction, I think Ahmadinejad will win by a wide margin(50%+). I think he wins for 2 primary reasons:
1- People have become indifferent about the political system and don’t trust any real change will come about.
2- People’s sense of nationalism takes priority over their belief in a secular democratic government. Therefore, their vote is more a reflection of this priority than their belief in reform.
Ali, thanks for making it interesting….
My two cents...
by Princess on Sun May 24, 2009 04:09 PM PDTI think it depends. If people decide to boycott the elections, like they did four years ago, than Ahmadinejad is going to get another term, otherwise I think Moussavi will win.
How about making some Bold
by KouroshS on Sun May 24, 2009 10:47 AM PDTHow about making some Bold predictions...far from being plausible. But hey it is still a prediction.
Mahmood will anounce that he is retiring from the buisness of politics. The reformers will propose a coalition-style government, with the leader's totol backing and support. Mohsen khan ham would forget about being in politics and will take up a more suitable profession.
You are making it interesting
by Monda on Sun May 24, 2009 09:03 AM PDT1) I don't think there'd be a runoff.
2) I do hope there's a last minute new candidate; since that won't happen I fear what will! (I'm not into braggin')
Your Psychic Reading
by Nazy Kaviani on Sun May 24, 2009 08:59 AM PDTI needed a bit of time to do my vodoo magic and to consult the spirits in order to see into the future. Of course this was after I had consulted first my Turkish coffee cup and next the floating tea leaves in my estekan. Confused and baffled about the "gharashmeesh" results I had read, I then opened my Hafez book which said:
خدای را به می ام شست و شوی خرقه کنید
که من نمی شنوم بوی خیر ازین اوضاع
So, I changed my mind about seeking help from the natural and the supernatural, and concentrated instead on your questions!
I think there will be a runoff
I believe Mir Hossein Mousavi will win the elections
If this works, I am dropping out of the rat race and opening a fortunetelling parlor with the seed money your award would provide. Thank you!
جواد آقای نازنین،
JalehoSat May 23, 2009 08:44 PM PDT
بنده مخلص شما هستم. جایزه علی آقا را هم نمیخوام. ایشون میخواد به ما اجازه بده پر افادگی کنیم، من همینجوریش هم بیخودی پر افادگی میکنم، اجازه ایشون رو لازم ندارم. باشه مال شما که خیلی نجیب هستید :-)
ژاله خانم بسیار عزیز
Javad YassariSat May 23, 2009 08:31 PM PDT
هر چه از دوست میرسد نیکوست!
باور کنید اصلا نیاز به اینهمه سنگ نیست! همینکه موجود عزیز و فرهیخته ای مانند شما از موجودی مانند محمود احمدی نژاد طرفداری می کند، دایما باعث رنج و درد بنده هست و نیازی به سنگ های اضافه نیست. بگویم آخ تا باور کنید؟
اگر پیش بینی شما درست از آب در آمد، باختن مسابقهء آقای علی پ. کمترین رنجی است که من خواهم برد! تداوم آبروریزی وانزوای ایران و وقوع آن جنگی که محمود جان چهار سال است دنبالش است چیزهایی هستند که مرا به قطع بسیار ناراحت خواهند کرد.
اما اگر من برنده شدم، جایزه ام را میدهم به شما! چرا که کم شدن شر این نامزد نامرد و بی مقدار و خائن به ایران، بهترین جایزهء من خواهد بود.
Although originally I wanted to vote for
by Jaleho on Sat May 23, 2009 07:28 PM PDTMehrnaz, but Irandokht has FORCED ME to vote for Ahmadinejad now; I just can't spoil her "opposition" vote!
This way, I'd be countering Javad agha too, and that means killing two birds with one stone :-)
Now to complete my opposition to Javad agha and go against Hosien too (love this killing two with one thingie), I'd say that Ahmadinejad will win in the firts round. There won't be a runoff. whoopee, I know I made Parisa really mad too now :-) :-)
My crystal Ball
by hossein.hosseini on Sat May 23, 2009 12:19 PM PDTHere you go Ali Jaan,
1) Would there be a run-off? Yes
If so, who would be the run-off candidates? Karoubi and Ahmadinejad
2) Who would finally be 'elected' as the next president?
Mahmoud is D MAN
I'll try it!
by Javad Yassari on Sat May 23, 2009 12:09 PM PDTI see nobody wants to speculate! I'll try my chances here. My major assumption here is that there won't be widespread cheating, ensuring Ahmadinejad's re-election.
1. Just before the elections, Mohsen Rezaei will drop out of the race. His pattern has been to eject just before he is publicly humiliated in the race by actual votes.
2. Yes, there will be a runoff. Neither of the two reformist candidates are willing to concede in favor of the other candidate at this time. This naturally will lead to a vote break for all in the race. This will be a serious humiliation for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. When Khatami re-ran for his second term, he was elected by a landslide on the first go around. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's "popularity" challenged, the next round will begin.
3. I think Mousavi will be eliminated in the second round.
4. The second round of elections will include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mehdi Karroubi. I think Karroubi will win the elections by a small margin.
Since you asked
by amirkabear4u on Sat May 23, 2009 12:03 PM PDTThe winner will be the one who can easily and cheaply excite israel. In other words giving israel a good excuse to do something. Also he will the ugliest person you can imagine.
On the other hand the loser is the one who can do more good and avoid trouble compared to the other ones.
Orang jaan
by ebi amirhosseini on Sat May 23, 2009 11:28 AM PDTVery well said.
sepaas
Ebi aka Haaji
I believe regardless of what will happen on election day,
by Multiple Personality Disorder on Sat May 23, 2009 11:17 AM PDT...someone will always win.
unfortunately history could be repeated
by Orang Gholikhani on Sat May 23, 2009 11:03 AM PDTAli jan,
I don't know what could happen but I could say you what happened in France.
After French revolution all nobels left the country and was dreaming to be back and recover their privilege.
During the time, country went to anarchy and some people took noble's place. It was creation of what people call Bourgeoisie.
Even if country was in anarchy Bougeois people didn't want the monarchy and nobels come back because it was meanning they will lose their ruleing role and money.
Then they followed Napoleon. They prefered an Emperor dictator (money) instead of freedom.
Ahmadinejad is dreaming to have a war and to become a new Napeleon. Praying history doesn't repeat.
Cheers.
Ali jaan salaam
by ebi amirhosseini on Sat May 23, 2009 10:52 AM PDTI'll tell you later!.
Ebi aka Haaji
To Boldly Go Where No Man (Nor Woman) Has Gone before ...
by Darius Kadivar on Sat May 23, 2009 10:42 AM PDTVoting Process in the IRI is like Space ... Its Dark & Strange ! ... LOL
ali jan
by bajenaghe naghi on Sat May 23, 2009 10:20 AM PDTi have been looking into my crystal ball and i see everything that will happen. but since i do not discuss anything religious or political, i must keep every thing to myself. i just tell you that you are going to be surprised!
Not into bets and gambling
by IRANdokht on Sat May 23, 2009 10:15 AM PDTSorry Ali P. I don't have a horse in this race so to speak... I am leaning towards Mousavi only because I consider him one of the two least harmful ones, and I like his wife to be involved in the politics and work for women's rights in Iran.
Don't tell anyone: I'm only thinking about voting to cancel out Jaleh's vote ;-)
IRANdokht
I wonder if Mahmoud will do us a favor ... (sic)
by Darius Kadivar on Sat May 23, 2009 10:19 AM PDTIf Only it had happened in North Korea instead ... Poor Fellow ;0(
South Korea stunned by Roh's suicide
South Koreans have expressed deep shock at the apparent suicide of former president Roh Moo-hyun, who was under investigation for alleged corruption.