Amir Parviz for secular monarchy

What is it with Amerca and their 1 or 2 syllable leaders.

bush

perry

o ba ma too long for them

Next elections

Well, if a trend set by Time Magazine is anything to go by, where it has anointed succeeding US Presidents 12-18 months in advance, then Rick Perry is most likely going to unseat Obama next year and become the next US president. I do agree with you that America is well into the process of tearing itself apart socially as well as economically.

That said, I wouldn't underestimate the military capabilities of the Chinese, or the better discipline of the Chinese Red Army as compared to the US military. The US might be more advanced technologically but they have proven in Vietnam in Afghanistan and in Iraq that they never perform as well on the field as they put out. 

Tabarzin

If you mean a competition war yes it has been going on. But I am talking about a shooting war. I do not think there will be one with USA one one side and China; Russia or Iran on the other.side no it will not happen.

Because USA military is too powerful and it will beat all of them. There is a small chance of USA attacking Iran. If it does neither Russia nor China will get actively involved. The wisely wait for USA to run out of money. That's her weakness.

Remember Soviets were not defeated militarily. It was economics. USA is about to tear itself up politically. There is no reason for Russia or China to risk a war. Just wait and let the politicians do their job. Watch the next election to see a nation destroy itself.

VPK

I wouldn't be sure so about your claim that Russia and China won't war with the USA and Europe over Iran. Some might argue that that war is already being waged and in full swing, and both have serious geopolitical and economic stakes there right now.

More explanation

There is a lot of history behind my vision. Just google "Greater Iran" and you will find the map I am talking about. It has nothing to do with British or oil. It has to do with a nation and culture 3000 years old and very big.

If you go to Afghanistan or Tajikistan they still speak Persian. If you go to large cities of Uzbakistan they speak Persian. Becuase they are Iranian and have been for 3000 years. So my vision has nothing to do with Shia or Quajars.

As I said before America is not going to nuke anyone. Nor is Iran. I get sick when I hear the word. People who throw it around have no idea of the damage it does. The one to all sides including the ones using them. 

Oil is the big thing now but in time will not matter. When that happens and it will America will have no reason to stay in the region. Not to mention long before that the military money is going to run out. 

Iran will most likely influence its neighbors through soft means. Not by military direct approach. They already run Iraq like it or not. A nationalist post IRI regime will continue the same policies. Maybe accelerate them. Tajikistan is getting major investment from Iran. The Iran is using Armenia to pressure Azarbayjan. Once again a nationalist regime will do the same things just better. So Iran is there to stay. USA is there on a temporary basis. Because Americans do not support it.

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

We just have to disagree compltetely.

Rich do not pay most the tax. The American tax base in the middle class. There are not enough Rich to make up for the vastly more numerous middle class.

Greater Iran has nothing to do with "Shia" religion. It goes back to Sassanid times. Many areas of Greater Iran are not even Shia. Many Shia areas like Lebanon are not part of Greater Iran. You are mixing up ideas. 

Russia and China have their own interests. They will not war with USA for Iran. Not now or in the future. If anything post USA they will be rivals to Iran not backers. Then Iran has to deal with them.

USA will not be pushed out of the region by force. It will pack up and go peacefully. Because the money will run out. Not one bullet will be fired. They are not going to nuke anyone. We all know where that will go so n one will do it.

The elite in America made a big mistake. To hollow out the middle class. Now they will run out of money. No one will finance their miliary. Hence an end to the actions.

disagree with future path/vision

the usa started this policy in 1979 of militarization, alliances, imperialism, extremism to control oil.  The UK carved out the countries after ww1, not based on history, but solely on oil fields, hence Iraq and Kuwait are inventions with no history and bahrain was plucked away due to their power.  And you bet IRI wants it all back and all the shia majorities there to govern its shia empire, which was lost by weak qajars.  Realistically the USA won't even squeak, 5 nukes is all it will take to make it history, so they are not suicidal either.  And yet USA can't afford to leave the region to IRI hedgemony for its own interests.

Honestly where are you?  The USA doesn't ever plan to leave Iraq, it will always have bases stationed in the region for as long as one can imagine.  The region and its control is of vital importance, thats why moving shah was such madness, the usa benefitted massively from him.  Yet US Bases won't stop a nuclear IRI re-exerting its authority, starting with use of soft power.

China and Russia will fully back IRI pushing out the USA, even EU may back them.  Its these issues that give rise to ww3. A shift in power

VPK factually not true, rich pay most of taxes

as they should.

The issue with middle class has to do not with taxes, but being a democracy, if they destroy it, they can not pretend to be a democracy period.

Amirparviz

what they could not before, like kuwait, iraq, bahrain, azerbajan, georgia, turkemenistan and control more oil.

Yes and why should Iran not have control of those regions. Most of that was Iranian land anyway. I do not see anything wrong with Iran recovering its territory. There is nothing radical about wanting Iranian land back. 

But to be realistic Iran is not going to do that. Because USA will not let it. For each nuke Iran may have USA has a 100 times as many. It will be totally containable and nothing will happen in the short term. 

In the long term USA will pull out of the region. There will be a vacuum Iran will fill it. No matter what kind of government it has.  That is the reality of the situation. One way or other Iran is going to dominate the region. Might as well accept it now.

No middle

No middle class means no USA. It is the tax base that sustains America. The super rich don't pay taxes. The poor don't have anything to pay. That leaves the middle class. They pay the whole thing.

Once they go with them goes the budget and the military. No military means no one to make the world "safe" for transnationals. I assure you China; Russia and EU will not foot the bill. Neither Russia nor China give a damn about transnationals. And EU does not have the power to protect them. By killing USA they kill the goose that lays the golden egg. But they will and end up their own casualty. Then The rest will move in and pick up the pieces. Too much greed is going to be their destruction.

VPK, they won't use nukes physically but will be able to do

what they could not before, like kuwait, iraq, bahrain, azerbajan, georgia, turkemenistan and control more oil.

And what can the world do?  What could it do with a country with most of the worlds oil.  Its a serious problem not containable. This is the very difference between having a radical governmen/extremist and a stable peace making government like was there before.

Vildemose, I think you are more correct than you know.

bring down wages, abolish regulation and destroy
all the social safety nets including raiding the social security fund
and the pension funds, which people have already paid into.

The USA has been trying to implement a philosophy of service economy = 80% and manufacturing =20% , which means shipping all the good paying jobs to india/china for nothing, losing the skilled labor and crushing labor in general.  By getting the usa to compete even in services with china/india requires removing ssec, pensions.  This may be excellent for the stock market, but its going to devastate US society, this policy doesn't even look at Americans as having any human rights, like a living wage. 

And its like it doesn't matter who wins the white house, republican or republican lite, this trajectory will go until we see a major social back lash like the 60's.  They'll squeeze every last drop out of Americans they can. It's truly trans-national interests winning over others.  This is the downside to globalization, when borders were removed intellectually, multinational elites saw a huge opportunity to create never before seen wealth in human history, except the price would be the US middle class.

Miscalculations

The problem with these calculations is they are all short term. Yes Brzezinski "freed" Poland but then what happens? At what price?  In my mind there is no question Israel was better of with Shah. As was Poland. By bankrupting USA they are going to make it much less safe for both nations. I guarantee before long Americans are going to scream for pulling back their troops. There is not enough money left to finance the endless wars. People are not going to take it.

But I do not think Iran with nukes means WWIII. Absolutely not. Who is going to be the players in this war. Iran is not going to go head to head with USA. If it does it will be short and decisive. No other nation is going to join on either side. 

If Iran does manage to get nukes it won't use them. In fact I bet they already have some. The business about Iran nuking Israel is just nonsense. They have absolutely no intention of doing it. There is nothing to be gained by it. Mollahs are not suicidal or stupid. They are ruthless but not idiots. Besides it will ruin "the holy" land and their precious Palestinians will be fried. Then who would they hit? There is no target for them hence no reason to use it: nothing happens.

VPK in the scheme of things I think lots of miscalculations

are still going on, Because poland and israel solely depend on the usa ultimately and it is the usa that has a bleak future as a result of IRI policy, so US's own future security is far less manageable/stable. EU looks better for now, US future national security is now based on its ability to negotiate with IRI, which looks like a loser.  The Irony is by screwing the USA for many reasons with Iran.  Well they've now screwed Israel and polands security too.

George Bush got one thing right, Iran with nukes means ww3 for the usa, even if they want to get out of it, extremism doesn't compromise.

Do you think IRI will be crazy enough to really go for nukes?

amirparviz Jan

I assume you are talking to me. No I don't think there is a single source of misery for Iran. There were many sources of it. They do include: Oil; UK; France and other things. Including mistakes made by the Shah.

In case of Bernard Lewis I think it is a misguided loyalty to Israel. In case of Brzezinski his loyalty was to Poland not America. These are facts and I am calling it as I see it. 

Regarding antisemitism: no not at all and if you read my other posts you know that. I have advocated that Iran and Israel be allies. However it takes two to tango and right now neither side is interested. It is wrong to turn any criticism of a Jewish person into antisemitism. That is precisely why so many Israel first types get away with it in USA. Because no one dares state the obvious: they put Israel above USA. These people include politicians such as Joseph Lieberman. The sooner America comes to terms with it the better. If not then there will be one giant backlash which is going to be a lot worse.

So you really think the main source of Irans misery

is just the AIPAC group, not oil, not uk, not france etc.  You don't think you may be venting out anti-semetic idea's instead of looking at it like business and interests, cold calculations I mean, you think USA would screw itself for Israel?  And then there's the question, Wasn't Shah great to israel?  Iran was the only country to supply israel & USA with oil during the arab oil embargo. Yuck it makes me sick to think they betrayed that kind of a steady ally. I thought he was super generous.

Bernard Lewis

is a very dangerous man and the reason for much misery. When I talk of advisers who do not have Americas interest in mind I mean him! But what goes around comes around. The cat is out of the bag and everyone knows what he is up to.

His plans cost Russia its empire but now is costing USA its. If Iran was stable USA would not need to spend trillions on Middle East. Of course this does not bother Bernie. Because his loyalty is to Israel. Without Iran USA only has Israel as its ally.

But the inevitable result of Berni is the collapse of USA empire. No money means no military adventures. One of these days Americans will have to chose between themselves and their empire. I bet they will choose themselves. Just as the British did. Which means Israel will be on its own. With no friends and many enemies. With friends like Bernie Israel does not need enemies! Regarding Iran: if he were to get his map of Iran it would be temporary. With USA away we get forcible reunificatin.

Vildermose Jan

You are right about the global financial disaster. It was totally made up and for the reasons you said. But its damages go beyond middle class. I know former millionaires who lost most of their millions.,

I am not sure if that was the plan but it did. The amazig thing is not one person got prosecuted for it in USA. In fact they even got their bonus! Right out of the tax payer funds.

This will in time cost US its position as the global super power. It has already cost many businesses the place of respect they once had. It has made CEO a dirty word.

Dear Samsam: I think you

Dear Samsam: I think you are right. Obama will be a one time President.  

Reform requires the consent of the corrupt

Vildem, Exactly the usa has more oil and gas so why steal it for

cheap from iran and the middle east.  To answer that you have to read an entire research paper and book written by harvard, oxford, rome etc and why they came to the conclusion, the studies were conducted by the club of rome, the subject was "limit to growth", feel free to google, that is why lewis was listened to in the end, due to the scientific findings of the club of rome.  My source, the ambassador of the UK to Iran, Denis Wright in early 90's. My view, constitutional monarchy will be undermined by west.

Reading up on the work of Bernard Lewis who created this policy

is helpful.  It's for North Africa and the middle east.  Using Islam to weaken and set backwards these societies, create either a clash of civilizations or a republic toget them to destroy themselves, either way the end goal is the same.  Acquiring resources for cheap, 20% today compared with 75% during Shah's time.

The end result here.

//www.daanspeak.com/IranAttackBernardLewisMap...

Basics of the clash approach leading to further military adventures by west is the #2 option.

//www.ukcolumn.org/articles/politics/who-enem...

The #1 option is the creation of a secular republic, by far the preferred approach so the US/Nato doesn't have to do the fighting, regional instability with alternative ideas to get to the same place.  //video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-506628656...

of course they don't just come out and say it that way, but who gives away ther real motives in this day and age.  Presidents/Media lie all day long.

The US has more gas and oil

The US has more gas and oil than the rest of the world...They are just smart and don't want to use it. 

Reform requires the consent of the corrupt

I'm not talking about the

I'm not talking about the US. The US economy has been on  decline since '70s. The global finanacial elite are transnationals. The economic meltdown in the US was entirely  orchestrated by  this group and their associates to bring down wages, abolish regulation and destroy all the social safety nets including raiding the social security fund and the pension funds, which people have already paid into....It's has been grandest larceny on the backs of the poor and the middle class.

Reform requires the consent of the corrupt

Vildemouse I think energy is the bigger factor at this stage.

40% of worlds natural gas is under Iran today.  Therefore anything that establishes disunity or conflict over resources among various groups means the usa does not have to occupy iran to make its goal occur, the division of iran.  Hence a republc is overwhelmingly supported versus a constitutional monarchy by those that know how easily a republic can be used to create civil wars, italy endured 50 years of it!  One has to be aware of the othersides motives to not be deceived or focus on misleading chatter.

Western Policy

Dear Vildermose you may be right. But the horse left the barn already. Russia; China and India are rising powers. Meanwhile USA is trying to break Iran. They broke the Soviets and tried it with China. But the China attempt failed. As Chinese leadership realized what was being brewed with the "democracy movement". Hence the Tienanmen Square response. Now there is no chance of holding China back.

With China and India both surging forward one may ask why should they stop Iran. After all Iran has 1/20 of the population and is a lot smaller than those. I would say the reason is Israel. Most American Middle East "advisers" are more worried about Israel than America. They do not want competition from Iran. But it is a losing game. All the other people in the region prefer Iran. That includes the most anti-Iranian Sunni radicals; they still take Iran over Israel in a minute.

My belief is even if they do get to break Iran it will be temporary and will reverse. US is getting weaker due to economics. Before long they will be unable to sustain the military spending. Then a vacuum will develop in region and Iran will fill it.

The only way You can

The only way You can explain the push for Islamization of the ME, in my humble opinion, is the fact that the US and the West are still afraid of rise of Russia and China as a amalgam of Communist-socialist-capitalist  entities that can offer an alternative to the failed hyper-capitalism practiced by the finanacial elities... 

Reform requires the consent of the corrupt

Yes, 1979 Iranians made a mistake, like usual

For 2500 years we have been relatively organized as a people called Persians or recently Iranians.

While the world has passed us by applying democracy as their preferred governance, we've merely gone from a lengthy monarchy and rule through father to son succession to outright oppressive dictatorship.

I am hoping that in the next shift we can hopefully make it to self governance or popular rule through freedom.

It's not a sure thing though, since I think like maybe half of us with the current bitter taste of current Iran in our mouths, seem to want to go back to a monarchy, albeit it seems thankfully, a secular one.

But to answer the question, yes, obviously given the result, I think everyone can agree that Iranians in 1979, made a huge mistake in allowing God to hijack their country, and the "Other Iranian Hostage Crisis" to continue for 30 more years since.

Iranians have a general lack of the slightest penchant to ever stand up together and fight for our collective liberty. Many know this as a lack of ability to play on a team. In fact Iranians while under human rights conditions that would knock out the common cockroach, not only survive, but actually thrive and become popular Search Engine billionaires, and inside-trade their common stock just to fly into space for common fun. How Common!

Given the current preference of self preservation for personal good, over self sacrifice for common good, it is unclear when or if Iranians will make the shift and gain true freedom anytime soon.

Given the many articles about Mossadegh in this publication alone, and the sweet agony of pining over the past, clearly no one is looking forward, no one is thinking of becoming the next Mossadegh, and everyone is waiting for someone else to take the first step. Or a hero, to romantically emerge through the smoke. preferably on horseback.

So, our current hostage takers note this, and exterminate anything that moves or sounds or looks the slightest bit like a hero.

Because we are that pitifully obvious. And too busy self preserving.

Which is why the dance floor is always empty, while the same music plays on and on and on.

Think of it another way, this is why "I will Survive" is the average Iranian's favorite song. It has been playing for 2500 years now.

To read more bahmani posts visit: //brucebahmani.blogspot.com/

VPK Everytime I look at the awareness test it makes me think

that Iranians were fooled, by not having any awareness of what the west wants for Iran and not being able to believe it.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI

above is the awareness test, So my distinction is iranians were deceived vs made a mistake. Just 1 year before no one saw an Islamic Republic, because they were not looking for it, yet the head of the french secret service, king hussein and shahs ambassador to turkey all told the shah about it before 1977. Below is what Iranians today don't know.

Since no one is aware of the usa 1970's plan and if you said it no one could believe it, they make choices that help the usa get to its goal as shown in this map by the person who has created the US policy for north africa and the middle east. //www.daanspeak.com/IranAttackBernardLewisMap... 2 ways it can happen, 1) foreign occupation 2) (better option) pushing for a republic and getting regions to do all the fighting for resources against each other for them, this is why the usa will do all it can to remove the choice of a constitutional monarchy for Iran, as it has worked in creating unity and supporting diversity in the past and it is that they do not want.

Dear SamSamIII

I guess some Iranians {me} do admit to being wrong :-) Yes I am willing to say I was wrong about Obama. The problem is I see few better alternatives. The Republican party is so far to the right that it has no good options.

The one guy who may be any good is Romney. But he is a Mormon and I doubt will get the nomination. What happened to normal Republicans? What America needs is the pre Jimmy Carter leadership!

The one solution to all the problems in the region is restoration of the old Iran. With Reza Pahlavi as King and the old deal back in force. I wish it was going to be possible to resurrect Nixon: the most underrated president.

Dear Amirparviz

It is hard for people to accept what happened specially betrayal of Shah. Because it was such a stupid act. I had a really hard time accepting it myself. In fact a harder time with West promoting radical Islam.

Because it goes against their own good. The problem with America is its "advisers" on ME are exclusively radical Zionists. They do not care about American good or even that of Israel. Unfortunately they have a twisted idea of "good" of Israel. The stupid American politicians listen to these guys. The result is that they hurt America; Israel and all the nations in the region. By promoting radical Islam they are going to make such a mess it will take decades to get out of. 

And the nation to lead us out of the mess will be a post Islamic Iran. That is why it is important for the world to have a powerful united Iran. Without it the region will go into a dark age with no hope for improvement.