Amir Parviz for secular monarchy

Light or headlights at the end of tunnel!

It'll definitely get worse before it gets better... but I wouldn't despair for that's the natural course of history! A despotic regime must exhust all its option before it heeds to change or is overpowered by dissent. IRI is gradualy running out of options, yet it survives by default due to lack of a viable opposition that could garner the trust of the outside world as a serious alternative!

In a way we are way ahead of societies such as Lybia or even Egypt due to having experienced the follies of Islamic governance first hand, coupled with awareness of perils of foreign occupation! Noetheless, we are way behind a society like Syria due to incoherency among the rank and file of the opposition to IRI! In other words, due to absence of historical baggage, opposistion groups in Syria were able to assemble a comprehensive front representing nearly all socio-political entities on the  political spectrum. Whereas, we Iranians still seem to be stuck in the past, bickering and trying to self-vindicate and justify our past failures instead of looking forward to national reconciliations!

P.S. I agree with COP's point that IRI is already past the engagement phase (or at least as long as Khamenei in particular, and VF in general, are in charge) for they see negotiation as a sign of weakness and a slippery slope that leads to lsoing their stranglehold of the entire system!  

Not to change the subject

I heard on news the goal of the NTC was to hold elections in Jan 2014, does't that seem far away?

Also the leader of the Islamist division which runs tripoli has had major divisions with the NTC head.  So even the NTC is not united, crazy right? 

We agree on

religion and it being a pile of *** . But we are learning I tell you. 30 years ago I was believer. My parents also were. Now we are not or at least not in organized religion. Next is to see through political manipulation. 

I am happy  despite vast efforts to push the MEK on us it failed. I think  Americans figured it out. And now they have decided to do something else. Good for us. We did not fail the test again. A few more and we may actually get somewhere.

The biggest challenge is self respect and remaining together. Already I see blogs trying to destroy our self respect and making us hate ourselves. and to promote separatism. Resist those and we are in reasonable shape there is hope.

Barbarism, corruption, repression 3 big problems that arise from

Guess what?

Religion has shown to have a hand in producing each of these in its followers, whether christianity during catholic rule in Europe pre-enlightenment, or judaism these days or islam. It's tragic. Na?  How does this fit with love and forgiveness, I don't get it?

amirparviz Jan

I already said what I have to say. No one put a gun to our head and said go chant "Khomeini". No one forced Iranians to see his face on Moon! Yes there was manipulation but people fell for it. Nex time don't!

We already see the results opening our minds. They have been trying to push MEK. Guess what happened: MEK no cigar. Because Iranian people by and large did not fall for it. Now they need to go to plan "B": someone else! They mostly want their money. 

There is no reason for us to settle for another barbaric regime. Now we may debate this but there is no point. Because it is a matter of opinion not fact. Therefore I am going to move on to the next topic :-)

Re but first I don't agree with you. What about South Korea and

Of course you don't agree, how could you wth your views, I already knew that, I'm just highlighting your blind spots. This is a long and detailed discussion, no time to review history country by coutry to prove the point. south korea = cold war issue and today them plus taiwan, plus indonesia are now a geopolitical issue to counter china.

India's people 95% enjoy no freedom, please leave those poor people alone to suffer in bondage.

The only 2 countries that are heading towards freedom that did not enjoy it before are 1)Russia 2) china

all the others that are temporarily benefitting have a role to play in countering those powers and US geopolitical dominance. 

amirparviz Jan

I see what you mean but first I don't agree with you. What about South Korea and Taiwan. In fact if Ford had won Shah would have not been removed. Now let us assume you are right and USA wants to do what you say. 

Remember USA is not omnipotent. Despite what some on IC claim even with their "babies" aka nuclear submarines. How did India get its freedom? By not being stupid and pikcing a good leader. 

Both India and Pakistan started from the same place. One is democratic and free one an Islamic dictatorship. Iranians did not have to pick Khomeini. If we had said Bakhtiyar they would not have stopped us.

They rely on manipulation and advertising. Just don't pay attention and pick the best person not the one they push on you!

They are not going to send their submarine to force us to pick Khomeini! 

They would have said *** it and settled for Bakhtiyar.

VPK The Problem with the Empire is Freedom is not on Offer Never

Forget Democracy for a moment, the core issue being fought for and the prize is Freedom.  From your ideas and views vpk that is one blind spot a critical issue you don't see. You need to do an interview with an economist and that will open your eyes as to why Shah/Iran never had a chance. 

Shah never pushed the USA on oil or oil prices, which is what a person see's as part of their reality based on media/books/ iranian professors/ intellectuals.  Shah would raise oil prices when asked and drop it when asked.  Getting 75% for oil was immaterial, he had to order 1/3 of that on just US made military equipment to keep USA satisfied so after that forced heist iran really only got 50% (in exchange for a first world armed forces/air/sea/land).  What the USA was not happy with was Freedom in Iran, schools, hospitals, trasportation, universities, Research, developing a complex economy with multi-industries. 

Freedom under no condition for any 3rd world country. ie if you aren't already developed and experiencing some degree of freedom on your own, you don't get it in exchange for anything under any circumstance.  If you are already economically developed to the point where the USA can't suppress you, then you get to keep your freedom provided you can live with having it diminished.  Ie by the US $ being the reserve world currency via Force, every other developed nation has to absorb US Inflation on its financial system and overall society, ie continuously never ending increase of cost of goods at an additional 1.5% on top of your own inflation rate.

The purpose of the mullahs was to send Iran back to the stone age in terms of Freedom and the development it gives, that is why the USA loves Mullahs for North Africa and the Middle east.  Had the people of Iran not beenso easily manipulatable from within, based on 1)dictator 2)repression 3)corruption the USA would not have been able via any other means to suppress Iranians.  While we did have a hand in our own demise, the sheer power that the US and EU media has, soft power, means that we were overwhelmigly victims of this power and even if we had been the UK or Japan with so many forces united with USA, even they would have folded. Freedom is never on offer, there is the problem. 

Some people are

getting very belligerent. 

We have 43 of them on active patrol. 

Who is this "we" I am a US citizen and I don't control the submarines. Nor does my neighbor or anyone I know. These "babies" cost a fortune that is coming out of my social security. I am going to sure be voting for those who want to scrap them. What good have these done USA: nothing. Other than protect our competitors. Provide them with safe and cheap oil so they get to out compete us! No thank you. I rather have a decent retirement not this junk.

All these "babies" have not been able to knock out a bunch of Taliban. Going around waving a big gun is not doing any good. Wasting tax payer money on this junk is shameful. Being able to blow up the world is not a source of pride. 

amirparviz Jan

I am not sure what you mean by power of the Shah. No of course his power did not grow. Yes people as myself appreciate him more. But no absolutely his power did not.  I do not know what will happen when Khamenei goes.

But I know that nothing will improve as long as he is around. When he goes there may be improvement. Whether this will happen is another story. As you said Obama is going and systematically changing regimes. Egypt; Libya; Syria one by one. What does he have in mind for Iran I do not know. What I do know is people do have a say. We don't have to accept a totally *** regime. America does not want to wreck Iran; Britain does. Thankfully the British are number two with not much say.

America wants influence and oil. I would gladly trade a good deal of oil for freedom. Think of it. Would you give half of Iranian oil away for a secular; free and united Iran? I would so maybe it behooves Iran to make a deal with them. Read this proposal:

• USA gets half the oil for free say for 30 years.
• USA gets half the gas for free say for 30 years.
• USA gets to have naval facilities in an Iranian Persian Gulf port.
• Iran takes care of Taliban in return for annexing northern Afghanistan.
• Iran gets a secular and free regime.
• Iranian territorial integrity is guaranteed.
• USA keeps Russia; Britain and others off Iran's back.
• Iran gives up on Hizbollah and Hamas.
• Israel and Iran agree to mutually ignore each other. 

This is a bit of tounge in cheek but really would you take this as a deal?

Yeah...

The whole world will be “LOL”ing at the U.S. until one of these babies shows up at their doorstep, and they’ll be like “wait, what the…?” FYI, one of these things has enough firepower to turn half of the planet into a bowl of dust.  We have 43 of them on active patrol.

Look, the entire planet can simmer and “LOL” at America in envy, but the fact of the matter is, for good or bad, the U.S. is, by FAR, the most powerful and dominant nation on this planet, and it will remain as such for at least a century.  In fact, it will be most wise on part of America’s enemies-who are mostly little, petty Third World dictatorships--not to mess with it while it’s going through rough [economic] times.  Because that may just piss off an already jittery U.S. just enough to send a boatload of Marines in, finish the job and cause the leader of that petty dictatorship to be extracted from a spider hole, like this character.

Abamard the next tyrant will be worse of it gets there

Velayat fagih will stay due to assembly of experts. They are all vetted to support idea of a supreme leader.

Why does JK spam blogs? Huh JK?

Dialogue works, not spam.

Asbestos suit lol too funny

Regarding philosophy, don't you think, Mohammad Reza Shah's Power grew with his death?  Sure 32 years later you have the blind hatred of some and for them its deep, but across the board its changed, I know a guy in London that was a commy in jail for his loyalties outside the country and even he has a totally different perspective.  That for me is shocking, none of the crook, thief, repression, tyrant bla bla bla, he said to me I now think the issue is Iranians we have so many really bad people and I didn't know could exist and can't see how shah could have done better. I disagree, but I know what he means.  We needed a gradual path, like the UK/Europe and everyone wanted it to start asap. And Shah couldn't start that process effectively until his son was in power and he was totally out.  He wanted to start getting the institutions ready and was stopped cold in his tracks before he could.

So if this die hard has had deep doubts about his understanding back then, and playing into the hands of those after setting iran backward to steal its oil, then this is the only basis for a glimmer of hope I see.  The mullahs will stay for a long time, thats whats next, unless in 10 to 20 years they become so independent the USA has to uturn and double cross the UK in its policy. Funny thing Gaddafi said to the USA after 9/11, after you bomb afghanistan you may want to go for london as the brits harbor and cultivate most of the muslim radicals.

Yes VPK

The sentence should have said the power of Velayat Faghih will diminish after Khamenei's death. Thanks :)

You are on the right track thinking change is possible without chaos and bloodshed.

Abarmard you made

me laugh so hard I nearly fell over. This is the understatement of the year:

Therefore the power of Khamenei will diminish with his death. 

I would think it would more than"diminish" or more like vanish! Maybe he plans to have his ghost hang around! Now to a serious point. I do think AN will join the "reformers". Whatever they might be. He does not want to end up like Ghaddafi.

Yes I agree that no group wants to vote in another monarch. This is why this is a really bad time to have a violent revolution. Despite his cruelty Khamenei is against a force he will not win: age. He is going to go and we may yet get the start of a change from inside. Reminds me of 1979. If people had  waited a few years Shah would have been replaced by RP. It was very possible that RP would have brought reforms people wanted without the need for a revolution. Maybe that is what people in Iran are waiting for. 

Wishful thinking: maybe. But it beats a war. No risk of dissolution or mass killings. 

Now put on my asbestos suit for attack saying I am an IRI agent!

VPK

Point that rarely gets

Point that rarely gets discussed is what happens after Khamenei. The formation of current political leadership is understandable, taking into account Iranian lack of experience with freedom and democracy.

Recall that Rafsanjani helped current leader to get his current position. The shuffling of the system must be good example of social experience for all Iranians. That's positive.

Rafsanjani is gone. Khatami and his gang are absent. Soon Ahmadinejad will join the untouchables. Assuming that each party will continue its struggle for survival, the unification of Ahmadinejad and all reformists is very possible. In the mean time leadership will continue isolating all members of the system for the sake of absolute power. We know where that's headed.

However, regardless of how much change system takes in coming years, the pieces that make the system are in direct disagreement with monarchy. Therefore the power of Khamenei will diminish with his death.

He could put in place a system that his clan continues some sort of power in the future political mix, but knowing IR and its changes, there are no guarantees that would be successful.

After khamanei there will be no more leader. Reason is clear, no group of people will vote for an individual who will then rule them with absolute power. Therefore it would be very interesting to see after Khamenei.

Regardless of how long Khamenei lives, I would assume no more than eight years to have Iranian system fully matured, if it remains in power. That system will be the “fruit” of revolution.

We differ on this one a little, Libyans don't have a true choice

With coercion, manipulation and deceit in full swing that is similar to no choice at all infact.  The islamic green belt will now be ready, from morrocco to afghanistan as planned before.  We are all truley victims of something much stronger.  Don't look at western countries and think they are any better than Us Iranians, if the UK had the same forces united against it, its people would lose too. The point is, change always does happen, but you misread our possibilities, I don't see a ray of light of hope for freedom in Iran. The pendulum is broke and not swinging.  Change will come by random luck, the sooner the better.

Dear Amirparviz

Really I do feel your pain and am in the same situation. But please remember we are thinking in terms of decades. Iran is a nation with 3000 year history. We see the ripples but not the giant waves of history.

Right now it does not seem good. Wait and things may change. We do have a lot of say. We always did. It is manipulation that has got *us* to screw ourselves. In 1979 we did not have to go for Khomeini. We may have accepted Bakhtiyar and done fine now. 

Libya is in the same boat. The people there do not have to go for an Islamist regime. The may build a truly secular and liberal democracy. Or even a return to Monarchy.  That is where people like us come in. We need to be ready if there is a situation similar to Libya to be active. Go back to Iran and participate. Share what we learned about secular systems. When bull starts being said call them to task. I wrote a blog on "post IRI Iran". Got very few posts. I was even accused by a good friend of promoting war! I was just trying to prepare people for possibilities. Instead I got "too dahani". I then deleted the blog rather than put up with the BS. The problem is us. If IC posters are representative you are right there is no hope. 

VPK I have lost hope for Iran

Its like watching a bad movie and the story keeps going further and further away from joy towards greater loss and pain.  I wish something would change, so Iranians can choose their own future again, this time a little smarter, sometimes I feel Iran really died for good 32 years ago and we are just dreaming.

All of you

are right! 

• Abarmard is right that we will get more sanctions.
• COP is right that talking to Khamenei is pointless.
• Amirparviz is right and I have a feeling that is just what will happen.

But after Khamenei dies there may well be an opening. Remember there were reasonable people there once. They got pushed out of power by Khomeini. With Khamenei gone it is very possible a sane person may take power. Just as Gorbachev and De Klerk. Imagine someone like Montazeri taking over. The ideal scenario is a Montazeri type takes over. Then slowly moves out of the way. First liberalizes vetting process. Then gives more power to elected officials. Finally makes VF a ceremonial position or dissolves it. Maybe wishful thinking but is the best option. No bloodshed; no separatism; we get freedom. Stranger things have happened before in the world. It beats having USA bomb Iran with depleted Uranium!

Abamard If the story turns out to be a Kangaroooooooo

Then not only will the US not be able to push for more sanctions, but the stupid IRI with its moronic mullahs will be totally vindicated for not negotiating with the USA and for calling for a change of approach on the US side before they start negotiations as equals. The mullahs will say see, how can we seriously deal with a government that fabricates and takes criminal actions based on those fabrications. The USA has made very serious allegations, if it can not back them up beyond a reasonable doubt it will have screwed itself beyond repair. Some say this was intentionally done by the USA, because above all the USA wants to keep the mullahs for Iran and by doing this it harms its own countries capabilty to pressure the regime and puts it in a position of having to react to Irans actions and never have the ability to proactively remove them or undermine them. Keeping the IRI is a sad possibility w.r.t. the true aims of the USA based on its history so far.  

Lets hope for the sake of the people of Iran living under tyranny that the USA can prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the Qods is trying to kill the Saudi Ambassador on US soil, despite it having absolutely no benefit for the IRI in contrast to the massive danger it would cause them.  So one day Iranians can remove the mullahs.

They have tried talking to the islamist so called

government in Iran. They think they are above it all and will not engage in talks. 

Please do not piss in ones ears and thell them it is raining.

____________

IRAN FIRST

____________

The unfortunate outcome

The objective of US, UK, Germany, and France was to push some more sanctions on Iran. They used this excuse to promote their sanction and it seems like they are going with it. 

Here is the puzzling part, if a country has policies of sanctions imposed on poor nations such as Cuba & N. Korea, both countries have remained on their course without regime change then what are the chances of having same policy yielding better results for a richer country?

This is a better option: start dialogue and promote FDI to Iranian regime/businesses. It will actually work! Before talking about further results I would suggest a simple dialogue.