Iran's civil society speaks up about US war with Iran

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Iran's civil society speaks up about US war with Iran
by Ari Siletz
25-Jul-2011
 

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has just released an opinion poll report of 35 of the most highly informed and well respected members of Iran’s civil society regarding an attack on Iran by the US and allies. Bottom line, there is unanimous agreement by these democracy advocates inside Iran that such an attack would devastate the fledgling Iranian civil society and greatly exacerbate the already abysmal human rights conditions in the country.

The polling interviews were conducted between January and June of 2011 and included well known Iranian human rights activists, and household names in writing, journalism poetry, filmmaking and other cultural leadership positions, in addition to lawyers, political opposition leaders and others with intellectual, artistic and political influence over the thinking of Iranians living inside Iran. The age range of the interviewees was 25-84.

Here are some highlights:

Tahmineh Milani, filmmaker:
“We must not forget that Iranians are nationalistic and will not give even one molecule of their soil to foreigners…I believe there is a probability that the Iranian government would use war to establish its own political power…The government can use the war as an excuse and delay people’s demands.”

Simin Behbehani, poet:
“Conditions for writers do not improve after a war. What a bad person would I need to be to wish a war, so that my [banned] books could be published. Even if I am buried under a ton of dirt and not even one line of my writings remain I would never agree to a war…”

Mohamad Ali Dadkhah, human rights lawyer:

“…Iranian society’s attitude towards anyone who would advocate war under the guise of human rights and democracy would be terribly negative.”

Mahmoud Dowlatabadi, author:

“…in the case of a potential war between Iran and the US, I believe the relations between the two countries will be ruined forever.”

Mohammad Ali Sepanlou, poet:

“…[even] assuming that the country’s rule changes, it will be followed by civil war…”

Payam D. prominent journalist (name withheld for safety reasons):

“…among Iran’s ruling strata, there is a group that is deeply and wholeheartedly open to the idea of military action against Iran. It is evident that welcoming military action does not stem from their wish for improvement in civil society or human rights…Rather, military action against Iran from their perspective provides the excuse of an external threat…using these excuses the government will prepare the grounds for the oppression of political opposition, human rights defenders, and civil society activists.”

Kambozia Partovi, filmmaker:

“I have thought a lot about your question of “What would I do if a war breaks out?”and I think it’s clear that I will defend, because I care about my country and my people.”

Finally, to press an important message for we in the diaspora, here’s author Natasha  Amiri:

“I believe that we who live inside of Iran have a more accurate view of Iranian society…As a writer who hears outsiders’ criticism, I feel that their analysis is far from reality because they have no contact with the Iranian people.”

I may add that those in the diaspora that do have contact, have a smaller stake in the matter because they (and their children) live their lives under the laws and conditions of their host countries, always having the option of parachuting out.

For my part, I choose to listen to and follow our most informed intellects inside Iran. Listening to outside of Iran voices that even remotely, conditionally, indirectly, sadly with a sigh, angrily with a flag, passionately with calls for liberty, favor war with my country is like letting the casino blackjack dealer tell me whether to “hit” or “stand.” I may be stupid, but not that stupid.

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David ET

لولوی سر خرمن آمریکا و اسرائیل

David ET


یک عده گرگ در حال تاراج ، تجاوز و قتل مردم ایران هستند و در این میان سی‌ و دو سال است که ما را سرگرم کرده اند به این که آمریکا و اسرائیل و غیره دشمن ما هستند و همین سپتامبر حمله میکنند و هر روز هم خودشان جوری انگولکی به آمریکا و اسرائیل میکنند. دشمن ایران و ایرانیان رژیم نظامی اسلامی حاکم است وگرنه ایرانیان‌ها با هیچ ملت و ملیتیت و دولتی دشمنی ندارند.

متأسفانه بسیاری از روشنفکران و رهبران و اپوزیسیون و طرفداران حقوق بشر هم جوری در این سناریوی ساختهٔ‌ ملایان شرکت میکنند. 

این همه مردم را از لولوی سر خرمن نترسانید. اگر هم روزی آمریکا یا اسرائیل خطری جدی در مورد موجودیت یا منافع خود از طرف رژیم ملایان احساس کنند، بدون توجه به این که ما چه میگوئیم! حمله خواهند کرد .

 


لیک تصمیم گیرنده آن روز آمریکا و اسرائیل نیستند بلکه گرگهای حاکم بر مال و جان ایرانیان هستند.

 

//iranian.com/main/blog/david-et-74


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

I hope

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

the sentence is commuted. The people who should be in jail are Bush and Cheney.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

A different action

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Some years ago I lived in a state where a forest was up for sale. The seller wanted money and did not care what they did with it. So a group of us pulled together the money and offed to buy it and donate it to the city with the condition it be preserved as a park with no cutting and no logging. The seller had some bit of decency and gave us the right to make the first bid. Our bid was accepted we the raised the money; bought the forest and donated it to the city. It is now a park.


Ari Siletz

Add to my list of heroes.

by Ari Siletz on

Tim De Christopher!


MM

That is interesting Vildemose

by MM on

I did not know about this verdict, but since the auction was found to be fraudulant, I think that his sentence may be commuted upon appeal.  He seems to have a lot of supporters in media and public too.  Good for him..


vildemose

dear MM: Here is a good

by vildemose on

dear MM: Here is a good example of non-violent civil disobedience action.

//www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/26/996506/-Tim-DeChristopher-(Bidder-


MM

From Dictatorship 2 Democracy - 198 tactics 4 civil disobedience

by MM on

The scenario described by mammad and hundreds of civil disobediences like it has been catalogued by Harvard’s Prof Gene Sharp "From Dictatorship to Democracy - 198 tactics for civil disobedience" article in Farsi /English, apparently used successfully in recent revolutions, and definitely watched by the IRI.

 

I also think that the key to topple IRI by non-violent means is the ultimate strike in the oil industry that feuls her thugs.


divaneh

That's what I call civic

by divaneh on

A war of any size is the worst thing that can happen to Iran. Just imagine how a military strike on Syria can destroy the democracy movement in that country. Iran is the same, if we cannot see demonstrations in the streets, it doesn't mean that nothing is cooking there.

We also have to note that the the non-violent nature of the green movement has put the government in a position that it cannot use the same level of violence as before without losing more of its forces and crumbling further. A war can jeopardise all those gains.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Shah

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

was finished when Jimmy Carter decided it. His problem was that he was never able to make a decision without America telling him. If he had the ability to be a real leader he would not have been finished.

He would have been confident enough to allow multiple parties. Real democracy and parties with elections that really mattered. Then people's grievances would have been heard and dealt with. It would have never come to a head. The invention of Rastakhiz was an expression of fear of dissent. He just did not have the confidence to let others raise to power. If he had there would have been many civil institutions. Those would have not allowed a Khomeini to become the VF. 

 


Soosan Khanoom

VPK

by Soosan Khanoom on

I agree with you wholeheartedly. Ebadi has all the means and potential of a great leader.   I sat through her speech in University of Maryland. The event was held in the honor of her recent noble prize. But,since, the U.S invasion of Iraq was also happening at the time, she dedicated part of the speech to it and she strongly opposed the war.  She is a woman who speaks her mind and she does not give a damn about who she may be offending. We need people like her that are more of a leader rather than a follower..... 


Mammad

Finally, a voice of sanity on the site

by Mammad on

but still many..... One speculates that the people interviewed were not expressing their true views; how does he know that? Could they not just refuse the interview, rather than lying? One comes close to suggesting that droping an atomic bomb on Iran might not be a bad idea. One claims that she does not listen to these people and makes her independent decision [good, but what is it?]. SEveral suggest - just like the Shah and IRI - that one should ignore intellectual, thinkers, etc.

In my opinion, anyone who wishes war on Iran under any excuse or any name is commiting treason. My apologies, but there is no other way of looking at it.

And, yes, indeed, there is a faction within the IRI that does want a limited war with the U.S. This faction consists of the most extreme elements within the IRGC, Basij, and Rouhaniat. They want a limited war because that would give them an excuse to wipe out the entire democratic movement - whatever you call it or however you view it - and make graveyard peace in Iran for 2-3 decades.

Most experts believe that even an all out war with Iran will quickly turn into a war of attrition that would last 10-15 years without having any real victors. Those who think that a war will quickly end and the IRI would be quickly overthrown should think twice and deep before making an statement like that. If Afghanis can create a quagmire for 100,000 NATO forces in 10 years, why do you think that Iranians within Iran will not be able to do it, even if we restrict ourselves to 15-20 percent of the population that supports the hardliners? Do you think they can do any worse than, say, the Taliban in terms of fighting? Any sane and thinking person can see this, except for the usual suspects on Iranian.com

Instead of advocating war on Iran, one must think of other ways to bring about change. For example, instead of advocating sanctions on oil exports, why not think about ways of convincing the oil industry to go on strike in Iran? It happened during the 1979 Revolution, and as soon as it happened, the Shah was finished. Instead of making the drumbeats of war louder, why not think about ways of motivating people inside Iran to civil actions, such as not paying their water, electricity, gas bills; withdrawing all of their money from banks, disobeying the authorities whenever they can, etc.? All of these tactics were used to great effect in the 1979 Revolution.

War on Iran will result in destruction and, quite possibly, disintegration of Iran. If that is what some of you want, keep advocating war. If not, set aside such treacherous thoughts and begin thinking about practicable alternatives.

Thank Ari for posting this.

Mammad


Ari Siletz

Anahid

by Ari Siletz on

You state:

"Some of my team members are inside IRI's prisons."

 

And at least one of them is asking you to oppose a US-Iran war. To verify, google one of the interviewees, Mohammad Seifzadeh.  After being sentence to 9 years in prison, he's been missing since last April. Believed to be in Urmieh prison. This is what he says in the report:

 “For a while during former US President Bush’s term, war fever soared and a military attack on our country appeared probable. With the NPC [national Peace Council] we were able to encourage social elites to speak out against war. There were also anti-war demonstrations all over Europe, organized by my esteemed colleague [Nobel Peace Prize Laureate] Shirin Ebadi.”

Here's the report download link again.

 


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Ari

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

We are in basic agreement. I am just saying the same thing as you. The required leader has not yet appeared. The closest we have to one is Ebadi. Mousavi and Karroubi are hopeless. 

My hope is that this person whoever he or she is will be good hearted. Kind and forgiving not vengeful and blood thirsty. There is a lot of pent up anger. It is best to not have it loosened upon the people. A great number of pardons and forgiving.


Ari Siletz

VPK

by Ari Siletz on

The oppostion in Iran does not yet have a unified platform on all issues. But they speak with one voice on the "no war" issue. Whatever platform emreges, whoever this "Mandella" will be, he/she is going to want us to oppose war.

Here is a mathematical example to serve as a metaphor:

X>0. Whatever the next equation will be to nail X down to a specific number we already know that X will be a positive number and not, say, minus six. 


Soosan Khanoom

You are welcome Faramarz

by Soosan Khanoom on

Anytime !!  


Anahid Hojjati

Ari

by Anahid Hojjati on

Some of my team members are inside IRI's prisons.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Ari

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

I am not dismissing the value of poets and writers. But none of them is a Gandhi or Mandala. They are important but we have no major leader yet. Maybe one of them will become so but has not done it yet. That is my point and I will stick to it. As for opinions yes that of people inside Iran is more accurate. I do not know as much as they do. No question about it. You show me a real popular leader who is able to mobilize millions and I will be very happy.

Specially if they are made of the same stuff as Gandhi. I just do not see any right now. Please tell me who is there able to do it. To me a leader needs more than respect but the ability to mobilize millions.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Abgousht

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

I am not so sure about it. AN is going around glorifying Cyrus the Great! Maybe to cover his back. Then he will say: hey I wanted to celebrate NowRuz in Tahkte Jamshid! I am one of you!

Moussavi and Karroubi will say: we were opposition leaders. They will save their rear ends and form a party. Khamenei and Rafsanjani are old and on their way to their virgins. 

The lesser Mollahs have the shaving blade and a suit and tie in the back room. Next day after IRI they will be dressed like they were in Paris! I bet you most of them will get away with it. The only ones really on the chipping block are the hard core ones. The rest will change color faster than a salamander. So don't be too worried about them. If there is one thing they are good at is playing both sides. Mullahs are expert at BS and will find a way to wiggle out of this.


Ari Siletz

VPK, who is a leader

by Ari Siletz on

You ask:

"Now we have some poets and writers who do not want war. They are not leaders of anything. Who is a leader?"

A leader is someone who has the respect of a lot of people in a community. This respect comes as a result of the big contributions that this person has made to his/her community.

These "some poets and writers" have made significant contributions to Iran's modern culture and civic society. They are household names inside Iran, and I would be happy to write about each of them in separate blogs to clarify the magnitiude of their contribution to Iranian society and showcase how much influence they have in Iran. When several million people have seen a director's films or bought a poet's books and continue to ask for more, that elevates them to leadership status. 

Your apparent dismissal of their importance again highlights Natasha Amiri in the above blog, “I believe that we who live inside of Iran have a more accurate view of
Iranian society…As a writer who hears outsiders’ criticism, I feel that
their analysis is far from reality because they have no contact with the
Iranian people.” 

Diaspora opinions should be weighed by the pundit's level of awareness as to who or what is important to the people inside Iran. 

No awarenes: zero weight.

Some awareness: 1-9 weight depending on level of awareness

Full awareness: Impossible for someone not living in Iran.


Abgousht

Hey Veiled one...Nobody wants WAR, just talk to those who were

by Abgousht on

in one! The reason I said IRI wants one is because of the predicament it has put itself in!

What would the alternative for IRI be? Pack up and leave! Where to?

IRI has burnt every bridge behind it. Not only that, it has burnt every town and village on the other side of the burnt bridge to the point that it can't even swim back....!

 


Ari Siletz

Anahid

by Ari Siletz on

To get what you want, ultimately you have to team up with others. The moment you do, you will have to make compromises--and therefore only get some of what you want. We learned that in college when we had to team up with roommates to afford an apartment together. We just haven't learned the same lesson in the political arena. You seem to think you can afford that apartment by yourself. If so, throw a big party in your free Iran and invite your friends. 


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

War

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Half the people here want war; half do not (approximately). Abgosht says IRI wants war. Others say NIAC is IRI. NIAC does not want war and does anything to prevent it. So what is going on and who is right.

I think we are all just imagining things. In our minds! No one knows for sure. I do not want war. My friend visiting from Iran hopes US attacks and ousts the Mollahs. He wants war. But he is one man and not the whole Iranian people. 

Now we have some poets and writers who do not want war. They are not leaders of anything. Who is a leader? I have none. We know Mousavi and Karrubi are part of IRI. Maybe IRI light. Are they leaders and if so whose leaders? What does Ebadi want? Is she a leaders. We know MEK want war but they are no leaders. But they proclaim they are. Some want Reza Pahlavi to be a leader but he is not up to it. Hence we have no real leader.

The times when change happened there were leaders. India had Gandhi; South Africa Mandela. Iran in 1979 had Khomeini. A leader is one who is accepted by a large group of people. We do not have anyone like that.

Hence barring a US attack there will be no change right now. Maybe after Khamenei dies there will be a fight and something happens. Maybe a leader will emerge but has not yet. For now people will go to Shomal and that is it!

In summary: we have no leaders right now. America is not about to attack Iran. Nothing is about to change. Not until the second term of Obama. Mark my words. Not until he has finished mopping up the wars he has going on. 


Ari Siletz

Cool, Faramarz

by Ari Siletz on

Now I know where you are at.

As for global equations over which the inside Iranian opposition has no control over, diaspora opposition sympathizers (DOS) have a bit more control than them. Those in the US, for example, can do whatever people do in democracies to get their voices heard. Write, protest, boycott, stop drinking coffee...If the message from our best opposition thinkers at home is "War will hurt Iran's democracy cause," then the DOS should unite to make the anti-war case abroad. 

As to inside questions, for example "Is the IRI reformable?" I would leave that to the more informed and in touch oppostion members inside Iran to sort out. To repeat Natasha Amiri in the above blog, “I believe that we who live inside of Iran have a more accurate view of
Iranian society…As a writer who hears outsiders’ criticism, I feel that
their analysis is far from reality because they have no contact with the
Iranian people.” 

It appears that an internal consensus is forming that the IRI is not reformable. But it is not for the DOS to rule on the subtlties of what that statement means. There are, of course, opposition non-sympathizers, and they have their own organizations and strategies.

This state of affairs doesn't leave the DOS with nothing to do. Quite the contrary it clarifes our role for us: we are not to lead at the strategic and political theory level on internal matters, but to listen to and follow the opposition at home . And this doesn't "rightsize" any of the DOS leaders; they simply lead at a lower rung.


MM

Are we arguing that war should be on the table

by MM on

Are we arguing that war should be on the table because the artists and intellectuals were under the spot-light and not saying what is on their mind.  If it is any help, the statistics from the Iranian-Americans say that 70% do not want a war with Iran according to Berkeley University’s study. 

MG,

In this case, I quoted that particular paper not because I believe only Greens have the right of way, but as you said "a rain-bow" is what there should be. 


Abgousht

The IRI trinity is HBM (Hossein, Blood, Martyrdom)!

by Abgousht on

I meant the IRI in its entirety craves for WAR with America/Israel NOT just a small faction.

The notion that the moderate faction (Khatami & comp) of IRI seeking peace versus hardliners of IRI wanting confrontation is an old, obsolete, and cliche proposition that doesn't hold water any more.

IRI wants war!


Anahid Hojjati

Ari, I don't agree

by Anahid Hojjati on

Ari, you wrote:"If the most informed opposition leaders are gravely concerned about a war, that's our lead as to what to focus on--not necessarily exclusive of other human rights issues. '

First of all, people whom you have quoted in above blog are not opposition leaders but writers/poets. Secondly, I make independent judgement not based on leadership. In summer of 2009 and rest of next year and more, Moussavi and karroubi were thought as movement leaders by many.  However, even then and after, if they made decisions which were wrong, I did not automatically consider them correct because most people thought those two were opposition leaders.

  


vildemose

"…among Iran’s ruling

by vildemose on

"…among Iran’s ruling strata, there is a group that is deeply and
wholeheartedly open to the idea of military action against Iran."

Ari, which group is he talking about?? The Ahamdinejad faction, the IRGC/Khameni faction. why don't these intellectuals try to shine some light on  these anti-Iranian traitors? The international community and the Iranian people need to know who these domestic warmongers are.


Faramarz

So Here is What I Said

by Faramarz on

I started out by using the “Stockholm Syndrome” metaphor to point out that the poll in the current situation in Iran with people’s name associated with it and the participants having accepted their condition as being “normal” cannot be an impartial poll and the results should be taken with a grain of salt.

Secondly, I laid out the counter argument that there is a case to be made for military action since the Regime is not reformable and will not leave without a fight.

I broke down the conditions into two scenarios, one that required the internal Iranian opposition to request assistance and the second one that had to do with the general threat to the international community that the Iranians didn’t have much control over.

So the net of it is that nobody wants a war, but if the Regime continues to behave the way it is doing, both internally and externally, a military action is inevitable and the people will accept its outcome as they have done in Japan, Germany and elsewhere.  


Ari Siletz

Abgousht

by Ari Siletz on

One of the interviewees in the report (and quoted in this blog) is also convinced of the same thing:"

"…among Iran’s ruling strata, there is a group that is deeply and
wholeheartedly open to the idea of military action against Iran."
--Payam D.


Abgousht

I know it's an impossible task to convince the intellectual ...

by Abgousht on

elites on this thread but if Abgousht were to bet his bottom $ on who actually begs & craves for war with America in the tirad of Americans, Iranians, and IRI regime, it would have to be the 3rd entity!

The IRI regime has lived and thrived on conflicts after conflicts and crises after crises over the past 30 some odd years! You want supporting data and proof, just look under your noses as to where IRI was and where it is now and how it has got from there to here!