Gaza Attack, is actually the third Phase in a War with Iran


by ayatoilet1

Whenever there is any major political event, you always have to ask yourself why, why, why? Why this? Why now? Why here?

To answer these why’s we need to start off by asking a rhetorical question: What would happen if Israel attacked Iran last week? How would Iran have responded?

Iran would retaliate by opening up a barrage of missile attacks to Israel. And, Iran’s proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria would have likely retaliated on Iran’s behalf.

So as part of the preparation for an Iran attack, there has been a slow, steady but definite program to pick off every single Iranian ally one by one – while at the same time improving Israel’s capacity to defend itself and enhance its capacity to deal a devastating blow to Iran’s mullahs.

Phase one started with the downfall of the Assad regime. Syria is effectively impotent while there is a rebellion in the works in Syria. The Syrian army is otherwise engaged! Distracted, or bogged down on the other side of Syria – near the Turkish border…and likely to remain so for a year or so (maybe longer) Syrians are simply unable to stand up to Israel – in any way. Syria can’t help the Mullahs or Hamas – in fact Syria’s regime needs help itself to simply survive. Phase one is proceeded – and needs to be prolonged as long as possible (until Iran is attacked) or longer. Unless Assad’s regime is toppled quickly, which I seriously doubt, we are looking at an extended battle in Syria.

Phase two involved the clean-up of the MEK/MKO/NCRI/PMOI/MONKEYS from Iraq and their recruitment (and subsequent training) in military camps in Israel and the U.S. (Nevada) to enable an embedded (bi-lingual) force familiar with Iran and Iranians. Phase two is proceeding, i.e. all qualified fighters are still in training, and the rest of these Monkeys are being scattered throughout the world.

Phase three is happening before everyone’s eyes: the attack on Gaza. In this phase, the idea is to (a) render Hamas impotent. The Israeli Government provoked HAMAS to attack so that now they have basically spent their entire military potential which cannot be restored quickly. And (b) peel them away from Iran’s Mullahs (this involves bring them closer to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as their prime allies [notice how Morsi {Egypt’s President} is brokering the deal with Israel] and at the same time replace Iran as a financial benefactor with Qatar). This phase is going as planned. The Emir of Qatar (yes, the same one that enabled U.S. to base its forces in the Persian Gulf in Qatar prior to both “Gulf Wars”) was in Gaza only a few weeks ago to offer money to Hamas. And Egypt will broker a sustainable peace – ensuring that the Gazans do not just stand up and invade Israel – if Israel attacks Iran. Hamas will have to guarantee this as part of the Peace accord.

If you think about it, why should Israel attack Hamas now? What specifically changed? The answer is nothing. Hamas had been hurling missiles into Israel for years. There really wasn’t an increase in missile launches or indeed any sort of provocation.  Israel’s Netenyahu chose this moment to attack Gaza because knowing that he would need to attack them anyway as part of the Iran attack plan, this was the best time to do it – before Israel’s election in January. A hawkish attitude, a brazen attack…would surely juice up the Israeli public …and help him get reelected.

Be prepared for a phase 4, 5, and 6 very soon! Lebanon will be attacked and Hezbollah will be decimated. Israel will ‘fix’ any deficiencies in its missile shield (dubbed the Iron dome) that they discover during this Gaza attack, there will be more virus attacks on Iranian plant and equipment everywhere, and Iran’s opposition will be slowly forming outside Iran (like Syria’s opposition) poised to take over in Iran. And soon afterwards Iran will be attacked in force.

Yes, Iran will be attacked. The questions that remain are: (1) do they still plan on carving up Iran into 5 pieces? My sense is yes, because there has been a recent upswing in military spending by the Kurds – I read an article yesterday about that (//  (2) who will assume power in a ‘reduced Persia’ (Farsistan)? No please NOT the Rajavis! (3) When precisely will that happen? My Guess is late February to end of March next year or the year after – depending on the situation in Lebanon.

Israel has an agenda to cut up Lebanon - separate from its agenda vis a vis Iran. It’s been brutally repelled out of Lebanon twice – and they want revenge; but more importantly, they want to put a huge gas pipeline across Lebanon and Northern Syria to Turkey! This game in Gaza is a dry run for their attack on Lebanon, and Iran. Expect a Lebanese attack too.

For now according to media reports if the negotiations with Hamas do not proceed as ‘expected’ by Israelis, Israel will launch a full-scale ground, sea and air operation in the Gaza Strip  until Hamas is wiped out.

Thus, during the military operation against Hamas in Gaza, Israel plans to cause substantial damage to Gaza’s military infrastructure as well as its political and spiritual leadership. This will significantly weaken the potential of retaliation on Israel from its rear during an attack on Iran.

The whole idea is to engage the Palestinians for at least three to six months of reconstruction. And, during this time, Israel will strike Iran (and Hezbollah).

 If the Mullahs are ousted and democracy restored that will be good. If Iran is carved up - that will be bad. If the Rajavi's are installed in power as dictators - that will be tragic. Israel (and the West) must assure Iranians there will be no balkanization or Rajavis. If they don't the people of Iran will pick the better of two evils - and that is NOT the Rajavis. This whole plan could backfire!! Remember, with all the support Saddam Hussein enjoyed in 1980 - in the end the people of Iran defeated him. And Israel was defeated twice by Hezbollah. Its time for caution ... and to get the hell out of dodge!! It will be messy.


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Thanks for the link to NYT...

by ayatoilet1 on

Great article, and I enjoyed reading it very much. One interesting aspect of what they call the "shadow war" with Iran is that there was a phase in Sudan ...included in it, So the Gaza phase might actually be phase 4 or 5 -- so I stand corrected.

But there is definitely a shadow war going on, and it will end in a physical war with Iran at some point - unless there is a major shift somehow.

Imam-e Zaman

Good points

by Imam-e Zaman on

Thanks Ayatoilet for a good analysis. Actually on today’s New York Times front page there is an article on this issue which basically says what you have mentioned.


BTW, Faramaz, It, too,  bothers me that so many Iranians believe in conspiracy theories of different sorts. But it is not right to brush off every assertion that one doesn’t like as such. Sometimes naiveté could be dangerous!


توالت جان!




I don't have any Israeli buddies to ask your questions, but my Iranian buddies are constantly asking me about the Regime and its behavior. So that's where my focus is and not on some tangential issue.


Faramarz-Jan - No one is defending the IRI ...

by ayatoilet1 on

I am not defending the IRI; far from it, look at my name! I think the Mullahs stole Iranian democracy and freedom and we are ALL fighting to get it back. But at the same time, Israel is no saint....and I am particularly concerned as you have probably read time and time again about the plan to partition Iran and the plan to install the Rajavi's in power at the end of the war.

No one is painting Israel in a bad light - except Israel itself through the actions it is taking. Any objective observer sees the reality. Its on the news. That is NOT to say that the IRI are angels - in fact despite their religious garb they are very evil.

But fundamentally Israel has a right to defend itself. The mullahs are bastards. There obviously is a systematic plan on both sides to undermine the other. There is a war going on - no question about it. It might be a cold war - by proxy - or a hot war ...but there is a war going on.

But please ask your Israeli buddies not to take it out on innocent people of Iran or the Palestinians or Lebanese or anyone ... These war games are regime to regime - NOT PEOPLE TO PEOPLE. Iranians love their Jewish brethren; and they should NOT be destroyed, and Iran should not be destroyed in the process.

The people are innocent.Israelis, Iranians ...the people are innocent and all they want is a better life for their kids. 


توالت جان!




Your blogs always frames Israel as the culprit in the IR-Israel “war”. But the reality of it is that the IR Regime is the one who threw the first stone 30-some years ago and if you look at the casualty count, the Regime is responsible for far more Jewish victims through terrorist acts than the other way around. Actually, one of the communities that is on the flight path of IR-made missiles is a Kurdish-Iranian village in Israel. So in my opinion, in the battle between the Regime and Israelis, it is the Regime that has done the most killing.

Now as far as what is going on in Gaza today, Sepah set up shop in Khartoum a while back to make rockets for Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Then it smuggled the rockets through the Sinai Peninsula and the tunnels to Gaza. Israelis saw the buildup, bombed the factory and decided to go after the rockets in Gaza. Now it is all done.

Also, in the process they demonstrated that their Iron Dome works, with minimal casualty. And most likely the layers of anti-missile defense in the Persian Gulf and Israel and later on in Turkey and other places should provide a bullet-proof defense against the Regime’s longer range missiles.

There is nothing complicated or malicious about any of this.


Hey faramarz - I actually liked your ...

by ayatoilet1 on

I actually loved your blog on conspiracy theories and Iranians. I forwarded it on to a lot of people.

What I am blogging about is NOT a conspiracy - you never really read it did you? Its about what is actually happening.  I mean Gaza is being bombed, Qatar's emir came in and gave a big chunk of cash to Hamas. Just a few minutes ago, the news wire had an announcement about a peace treaty brokered by Egypt's Morsi! What's conspiratorial about this?

And - Big And - Iran's allies against Israel: one by one: are being peeled away from Iran. Now tell me its not true?

This isn't a case of umbrellas in a car resulting in 2.7 times accident rates in those cars!! These are simple facts.

And by the way, the date of a early spring attack on Iran was in Henry Kissinger's op-ed in the New York times yesterday. So I did not invent it. It was NOT an Iranian conspiracy theory. It was a 'prediction' by one of America's (and Israel's) greatest statemen! U.S. invaded Iraq twice - once on February 24th, and the second time on March 20th. An attack on neighboring Iran arround the same time frame is feasible - likely!

One final thing Qatar is looking to connect its natural gas pipeline to Turkey's Nabucco pipeline to Europe across Syria - the same pipeline that Israel wants to connect to by building one across Lebanon and Syria.   

No conspiracy - just facts. Real facts. No umbrellas. Just facts. Only facts. If you have family in Iran (and by the way I do), I would get the hell out of dodge in the next three months or so. That is precisely why I wrote the blog.


Another Gobble Gobble Theory!

by Faramarz on



Dear Toilet,

Your blog today falls in between Nov. 19, "World Toilet Day" and Nov. 22, the anniversary of JFK assassination that is the mother of all conspiracy theories. Great timing!

If you get a chance, please take a look at the blog that I posted about the conspiracy theories among Iranians and the state of mind of people who buy into such theories.

Happy Thanksgiving Day!