Troop Removal from Iraq is part of Obama's Secret Grand Bargain with Iran


by ayatoilet1

First there was the Hiker Prisoner swap, then the Israeli Soldier swap with Hamas, now the troop removal, then it'll be a nuclear swap, soon embassies will reopen, ...and then just before election Obama will travel to Iran! Another October Surprise. Why are you not exicted? 

After years of effort, the U.S. administration seems to have figured out a plan to "normalize" relations with Iran - much to some allies dissatisfaction, but it is obviously part of a larger strategic play in central asia. With Hillary right now visiting every major regional capital and telling leadership in those countries there that U.S. intends to normalize and this does not mean that their relationship with whichever nation she's at is now a lower priority ....but that they see a diplomatic resolution to their problems with Iran...and that the Saudis, Pakistanis, Tajiks, Azeris etc ...should not see this as a shift in strategy etc. etc.

And so to reassure the hawks in Tehran that U.S. has no "current" military intentions there is a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, and a reduction in the force in Afghanistan. And the paranoia some had in the administration in Iran is supposed to diminish...leading to the conclusion of a grand bargain.

Accordingly, to reinforce trust, there have been these lopsided deals with Iran and its regional surrogates like Hamas - with 2 hikers returned for 80 Iranian spies (arround the world released); and then 1 Israeli Soldier for 1000 Palestinians; and then now the troop removal announcement; and even the terror plot announcement in Washington was designed to (a) reassure the Saudi's that the U.S. has their back, but also (b) put some hawks in Tehran on the defensive; and so this way they want to pave the way for "normalization" which was the plan all along. Embassies, Ambassadors, etc. etc. These deals are all designed to show good faith on the part of the U.S. (and its allies) and make some in the Iranian regime less paranoid and politically impotent...while America's agents inside the regime (Rafsanjani and company) quietly, carefully work a path towards normalization...and diffuse counter arguments.

You might wonder why they are talking about more sanctions in the midst of all this ...well the key is, they are trying to get leverage. They are trying to push those skeptics inside Iran into agreeing to the bargain. The whole idea is to use different tools to get the bargain made. Soft, hard, carrot and get a deal wrapped up. 

I exchanged letter with Zbigniew Brzenski (Carter's former National Security Advisor; and currently in one of Washington's think tanks, but also at times Professor at Columbia University ...and the Master mind of the Iraq invasion of Iran) - five years ago (before Obama was elected). And in his reponse to me, he flat out said that the plan was to "normalize" as soon as possible. Well, here we have it.

I am supposing that their grand plans for the region are so vital, and so strategic on a global scale (i.e. posture towards Russia and China) that once again America is willing to over look human rights abuses, overlook repression, overlook everything.

I believe America is at its best  when it stays true to its founding principles of supporting "every man's ... right to liberty and the pursuit of happiness". Iranians it seems will never be afforded these rights as long as America is arround. The Obama administration is making a deal with the devil - and if you sleep with dogs you'll get up with fleas. The Mullahs in Iran will tarnish America's brand - not reinforce it.


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Dear Shushtari

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on


Gary Sick is a moron but Brzezinski is not; he is plain out evil bastard. The reason these live  to 80 is to watch their handiwork. So when it is time for hell they go with full knowledge of why.

Regarding Bernie Lewis he is the real evil behind the whole thing. People like that guy are responsible for worst crimes in the world. His vision will never come true. But a great number of people suffered because of his racist plans. 


both of those morons....sick and zbig.

by shushtari on

have the blood of many brave iranian patriots on their hands

their goal was the removal of the shah, and the implementation of the looney, bernard lewis', 'vision' for the middle east

all the mayhem, violence and destruction you see today is due to their miserable policies.

I never get why these poor bastards get to live to be 80, while a wonderful iranian, like dr. bakhtiar has to be assassinated by the killers of the mullas.... 


To Oon Yaroo & Everyone else

by ayatoilet1 on

First of all Zbig did teach at Columbia (I should know, I went there) but here's a bit of his biography; I wrote to him at his office in D.C. at COFR:

"Brzezinski was on the faculty of Harvard University from 1953 to 1960, and of Columbia University from 1960 to 1989 where he headed the Institute on Communist Affairs. He is currently a professor of foreign policy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C."

Secondly, these are supposedly "secret deals" ...and obviously things can be colored differently as they appear publicly. And by the way, the campaign promise was to leave some troops behind (not take ALL troops out)... this current troop removal announcement is different to the promise made 3 years ago (and the magic date was 2014 - not 2011). is great forum; and we can simply agree to disagree on this. I respect your point of view, and as with everything - it will simply play out in time. We'll see.

Whether or not the deal concludes with Iran - and it might not...Khamenei and many arround him do not trust the U.S. - and truthfully its hard to make a deal with an administration in the U.S. that might not be arround in a year or so. Historically the "Americans" are seen as unreliable, and "unprincipled" by many in the region (notably the Pakistanis, Saudis etc.) - not to mention the Shah or Saddam who served U.S. interests like slaves  and got screwed in the process (but that is another story). They may have to take Khamenei out ...I might find an incurable disease for him ...and let Rafi baby step in. 

Anyway we'll just see what happens. I am just connecting the dots. But I do respect opposing views, and I am keen to listen to opposing views (in case I am missing something ...or a lot ...yes, there is some humility here). 

About me quiting my job or selling my house and packing - let me just say ...the shit might really hit the fan here in the U.S. with an imminent downgrade of U.S. public debt and bankruptcy of BOFA coming very soon (and something like $75 trillion in risky derivatives on their books). With China about to see a real estate bubble and Europe in the hole (because of Greece, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Portugal, and Spain)  -- we might all have to sell our houses and pack home soon. Its going to be very rough here in the West leading up to the presidential elections!! 

Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

The only deal

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on


will be on how IRI will go. If they go willingly then may be able to find them a safe haven. If not then the same Ghaddafi fate awaits them.

That is all the deal I see on the table. Iran is a different matter and the nation may well get a half decent deal from Obama. That I do not know.

I agree with Oon Yaroo about troop reduction. That was a promise Obama made. What: a politician keeping his promise must be a mistake!

Oon Yaroo

Ayatoilet1: Before you quit your job, sell your house, and pack

by Oon Yaroo on

up your belonging to move back to Iran, you need to realize that the Iraq and Afghanistan troop reductions were part of Obama's 2008 campaign promises.

Of course, he promised many other things that he has not been able to deliver like jobs, jobs, and more jobs!

Besides, the US budget deficit is so bad that every government organization has to drastically get trimmed and DoD is no exception. Believe you me, I know, I work in that area!

So, the only thing that Obama has the ability to deliver is the troop reduction.

The IRR regime can not be trusted and no grand bargain will be made. If that happens then I'll promise you I will change my name from Oon Yarro to Een Yaroo!?

BTW,  Zbig teaches at Johns Hopkins U. and not Columbia. It's Gary Sick (the other adviser to Carter) who teaches at Columbia! Are you sure you didn't exchange letters with Gary instead!? :-)

"....Brzezinski is currently Robert E. Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies,..."

Veiled Prophet of Khorasan


by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on


I believe Obama was all for normalization when he got elected. The idea was that Mousavi will become president they turn down the rhetoric. Normalization will occur. But Khamenei had other ideas in his sick mind.

That blew the deal off so Obama went to plan B. Tighten the sanctions and shots across the bow. The blowing out of Ghaddafi was a shot across the bow. If Ghaddafi had won it would have vindicated the Khamenei approach. The use of overwhelming thugs against opposition works. But USA proved that it is able to neutralize whatever force it wants with minimal cost. Now IRI has a choice. Give in or forced to go. I believe AN has realized this but not Khamenei. The question is has the revolutionary guard.

If they have then Khamenei is toast and a deal may be made. If not then no deal. Syria is next. Once Syria is gone there is a last chance for IRI to go willingly. Khamenei will have to be removed. Meanwhile they are building the base for action. 


Bush opened the doors for

by Simorgh5555 on

Bush opened the doors for the Islamic Republic to Iraq and Obama is going to hand it to them on a platter. 



by afshin on