What is Israel’s Plan B?


by ayatoilet1

As tough as the sanctions are on Iran, it’s very clear that the regime has a complete stranglehold on Iran. Nothing, it seems, will dislodge the regime’s ambitions. Israel sounds like a paper tiger – and the sheer complexity of an attack, plus the serious threat of retaliation makes a unilateral move by Israel against Iran very unlikely.

The United States, is also impotent right now. First of all, there is the subtle fact that the U.S. signed a treaty with the Mullahs in Iran in 1981 – promising NOT to interfere with Iran’s internal affairs.  The treaty (called the Algiers Treaty) was ratified by congress during a secret vote (yes, they do have them), and signed by Ronald Reagan no less (all on the back of the U.S. Embassy Hostage release). This quite simply means the U.S. cannot attack Iran - without provocation. And then there is the financial reality of a near bankrupt U.S. treasury, and a simple estimation that a war with Iran surely will cost more than the war in Iraq. This means it could cost more than 1 Trillion dollars – and for what return?? Iraq at least had the world’s second largest UNTAPPED oil reserves. Iran has plenty of Gas – and its oil fields are tapped. Would you spend 2 trillion dollars and bankrupt the U.S. to fight Iran? Is the U.S. electorate ready for that now?

No, the time to invade Iran was 10 years ago, not NOW. Israel will not go it alone, and the U.S. will not play. It’s very clear Iran’s nuclear progress will go unimpeded. And anyway, these Iranian Mullahs are shrewd enough to assemble every piece of the bomb – but not build it. And as everyone in the know  (but will NOT publicly admit), Iran has had black-market Nuclear Warheads from former Soviet Republics for over 10 years now and even tested one in 2003.

So, it’s safe to assume – Iran is or will be fully nuclear capable. To quote Netenyahu: “Iran will be fully capable in about 6 or 7 months”!

To put it simply, Israel will not attack Iran. So the question is what is Israel’s plan B, now?

My own view, is that Israel, has always had a plan B. They will use the excuse of an Iranian Bomb, to invade Iranian allies in the region. The plan is to invade Lebanon, and take on Hezbollah. And from there march forward into Syria and carve out land all the way to Turkey’s border. They might even march south from there and carve out a Kurdish state. The Kurds, after all, have been long-time Israeli allies.

The price paid for a bomb by Iran, will be the annihilation of ALL its regional allies. And it’s very clear that Iran will sit impotent while Israel marches on. Iran, surely, will NOT and can NOT use the bomb to protect Hezbollah or Alawite Shiites. After all, Iran’s territorial integrity will not be compromised – so how can Iran justify using the bomb.

Bottom line, while Iran having a bomb will change the strategic calculus in the Middle East; in reality Iran’s strategic position will actually be weakened because of the elimination of all its regional allies. Iran will have invested in a ‘tool’ it simply won’t be able to justify using. And in the process, Iran will have been distracted from investing in other more critical tools that really would have made a difference.  One such tool would have been to reinforce Hezbollah, yet their funding in Lebanon has actually gone down.

Let’s not forget that Israel was defeated twice by Hezbollah in Lebanon – and this time, the third time it will be fighting to win.

Israel does have a plan B. All this other talk is just nonsense … And by the way, Europe has a plan B too. The Europeans cannot wait to buy natural gas from another source or two from anywhere except Russia. It won’t be long before Israel’s natural gas get pumped into Turkey’s Nabucco gas pipeline – and it is very possible that Gas from Northern Iraq (Kurdistan) too get pumped into Turkey. And quite likely, gas from Qatar too gets pumped all the way to Turkey. And all that gas will find its way to every one of Russia’s current natural gas clients – Germany, Austria, Ukraine… you name it. Oh, and by the way, Iran too will be cut out of the European market. Not just Russia, but Iran and Iranians will be fucked too.

The great irony of an Iranian bomb is that while the Mullahs will be feeling emboldened and their allies will feel warm and fuzzy being associated with Iran’s Mullahs – in reality it will translate into a huge loss and a distraction for all.

If Plan A is invading Iran, Plan B doesn’t look so bad for Israel and the West. Instead of calling this Plan B, let’s call this Plan G!!


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Soosan Khanoom

Dear Ayat yes BiBi is a liar & also puts words in people's mouth

by Soosan Khanoom on

//www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9545597/Armada-of-British-naval-power-massing-in-the-Gulf-as-Israel-prepares-an-Iran-strike.html but before you read the article: 
Note how this devil BiBi and his supporting news agencies put words in people's mouth...  1. "strike against Iran’s covert nuclear weapons programme."   missing the word illegal and "alleged" Should read:  “illegal strike against Iran’s “alleged” covert nuclear weapons programme. 2.  ”as Israel and Iran move towards the brink of war.”  Should read:  “as Israel is planning to attack Iran and Iran has no intentions of going to war with Israel” The funny part of the article: But just last week Mr. Netanyahu signaled that time for a negotiated settlement was running out when he said: “The world tells Israel 'Wait, there’s still time.’ And I say, 'Wait for what? Wait until when?’“Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don’t have a moral right to place a red light before Israel.” MORALITY????????? BiBi , has no morality.....absolutely NONE.   Now whatever plans this devil has from A To Z is going to do the human race no good.   


Not to belabor the point

by Faramarz on

Ayat Jaan,

The Sr. Foreign Affairs Congressional members are always briefed on important decisions and in this case they were involved so that in the transition of power from Carter to Reagan the agreement would be hold (mainly the unfreezing of the assets, removal of the sanctions and no legal claims by the hostages on the Regime.) So you are correct about the involvement of some Senators and Congressmen.

Now, why would Israel want to go through all the wars and problems to ship its newly-found Mediterranean oil and gas through hostile territory to Turkey (another not-so-friendly country) when it can use its own ports?


Bavafa-Jan, Not sure what you mean?

by ayatoilet1 on

Are you refering to Netenyahu? If so, yes, he is a proven liar. As Sarkozy said privately to Obama (with the Microphone on), "Netenyahu is a Liar". We all know that.

As for me, my writing is always analytical. I try to forecast future steps in the region and how it might affect Iran. Its pretty clear that its speculation, based on fact on the ground. Its fun for me to do this, and its even more fun to have people make comments because it becomes an interesting process of discovery and we all get further forward as we discuss these concepts.

The future, is impossible to predict. It is by definition the future, so there can be no "lying" about it. But if the speculation sparks thought, discussion, new insight - then it has real value.


Faramarz-Jan, thanks for the fact check...

by ayatoilet1 on

I am sure I read somewhere that there was a secret meeting of congress to ratify the agreement (from one of the October Surprise books - where it was suggested that Senators Kerry, Heinz and Bird visited Paris with Vice-President Elect George Bush to make sure that the agreement had bi-partizan and congressional support [at the insistence of the Iranian Mullahs]). But this is NOT critical for the point I was making, and if your facts are correct then I stand corrected.

As for Israel occupying lands - note that I was suggesting the 'annexation of Lebanon and Northern Syria [the small Alawite enclave]) to connect norther Israel to Turkey. They Israelis now have the largest oil and gas find of the decade (the Levant fields) and they have a problem how to deliver gas to Europe. The balance of the 'property' will be split between Kurdistan and Sunni Syria (after the collapse of Assad).

I see the annexation of Lebanon and Alawite lands as being feasible - even if it happens by proxy. i.e. new Israeli backed regimes are put in power who depend on Israel (and potentially on Turkey too) for security etc. The Isreali's need to get the pipeline to Turkey somehow.  

I appreciate your comments, and value your perspective.


Fact Check

by Faramarz on


The Algiers declaration did not involve the Congress.

President Reagan signed Exec. Order No. 12294 to validate the declaration. When some of the American Hostages made claims against the Regime, the case ended up in the Supreme Court where one of the arguments that was being made was that the President exceeded its authority by issuing the Exec. Order No. 12294 and that power resides with the Legislative Branch.

The Court rejected the argument and sided with the Executive Branch and stated that the President has broad powers in conducting foreign affairs.

As for Plan B and Israel capturing all the lands in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq and becoming Iran's neighbor(!), how does a country of 7 million with an army of Jewish-only soldiers can occupy and hold such a large parcel of land?

One lesson that the Israelis learned from the occupation of Southern Lebanon and Gaza is that holding even a small piece of land is extremely difficult and problematic.


Plan B.....

by Bavafa on

To go on Sunday morning shows and make up lies as you go.

Well, since that has also backfired, Bibi should move on to the next plan.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory