Who do you believe?


by ayatoilet1

95% of the worlds shipping tankers are insured by the 13 member club at LLoyds of London. Its a monopoly the Brits have kept for hundreds of years. This monopoly is slowly - but surely - being cracked by Iran. Yes, Iran no less. And its even precipitated by the Brits themselves - due to the heavy hand of sanctions being imposed by Iran.

In the past 3 weeks, both India and Japan have established new "sovereign" insurance funds to insure Iranian oil shipments to India and Japan. Iran's exports to China are also protected by various - non-British- insurance plans. The world's third largest exporter of crude has now found other sources of insurance for its shipments. And shipments are continuing. In fact China is doublings its imports of Iranian oil. So are sanctions working?

One of the cardinal rules in Business, is that change or shifts in business always occus at the margins. One of the greatest CEO's of the 20th century Andy Grove (retired from Intel) says it elequontly in his book "You have to be paranoid to survive" - business change happens like a mound of ice melting. It  always starts at the edges - and suddenly the whole pile disappears.

With new alternatives to Lloyds emerging, the Brits could in the long have unintentially created new underwriters for global shipping. And in the process actually written their own obituary. In my view considering all the harm the Brits have caused Iran, and are still causing Iran - not the least of which is pissed on Iran's democratic movements 3 times these past 100 years for the sake of stealing Iranian oil, and are still sticking it up Iranian (and Azerbaijani) asses by stealing Caspian Sea oil and gas reserves - this is sweet justice.

Oh don't get me wrong, I want the (British) Mullahs out of Iran fast. But, this time Britain could not stop the weight of American resolve on Britain and Europe, and this has finally led to expanded - serious sanctions. And yet Iranian exports continue. But in turn Britain has lost some market share with its tanker Insurance business.

In the long-run, if LLoyds' monopoly is broken, it could be very serious for Britain. LLoyds attracts over $22 Billion in premiums. And it has generated significant revenue for Britain for hundreds of years. While Caspian reserves will be depleted in 10 years or so, the worlds demand for Insurance will endure. BUT, if all these shenanigans Britain has pulled end up actually meaning the eventual loss of Britain's insurance monopoly - that could be a far bigger blow than short term income from Iran's isolation (planned by the Brits).

For 30 years they installed the regime in Iran, to essentially establish a regional pariah that could result in more arm sales to the Arabs. That resulted in the Brits acting as sanction busters through their colonial foothold of Dubai making fees on transhipping Iranian goods. That resulted in an isolated, impotent state that would sit still while they siphoned off Iranian assets out of the Caspian Sea. A confined and isolated Iran was what they wanted. It was payback for Iran's oil nationalization in the '50's. The Brits have been on a multi-decade underhanded scheme to 'fuck Iran and Iranians' ... so underhanded, that they have full deniability.

But now, it could all be blowing back, with the breakage of Britain's insurance monopoly! I always thought sanctions were a joke. I always knew that the West wanted the Mullahs to remain in power and Iran confined and isolated. The irony of all this is that the joke may eventually turn on the West itself. 


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