Deal or no Deal

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Deal or no Deal
by eroonman
17-Jun-2009
 

With all the hopeful anxiety over the recent historic events in Iran this past week, the very real possibility that Mousavi can somehow overturn a charade result that was magically announced mere hours after the election was closed, does not bode all that well for what will happen next.

It is clear that the strategy by the Guardian Council and Khamenei, to try and get people off the streets by announcing they will look into the election fraud claims, will not work in reducing the pressure being put on them by the hundreds of thousands of protesters who gather each day.

If this continued pressure can keep up, it is possible that we may see the first signs of cracks in the so far united council and leadership. If the pressure can continue, they may slowly give in to fear, and choose flight over fight and escape one by one into the night. And if that happens, it is possible the entire system can collapse through the sheer power of vacation.

If the protesters suggest that they may seek justice for the recent killings, and hold the current leadership accountable for the actions of the Basiji and Revolutionary Guard militias, this might cause the panic, needed to unseat the council and even the Leader.

This has all the makings of an Orange revolution as we saw most recently in the 2004 election in Ukraine, when the decision between Viktor Yushchenko the reformist and Viktor Yanukovych the incumbent , was reversed in a re-vote.

However, if this happens in Iran, and a re-vote is done, and Mousavi wins this time, we are still faced with the ever daunting task of de-attaching the system of councils and supreme leader, and religion in general, running the entire Iranian show.

It is naive to assume that Mousavi who is the half-brother of Khamenei, and allegedly the mastermind behind Hezbollah and various other rumors about his involvement in the secret intelligence services of Iran, would actually be interested in divergence from Iran's 30 year path to nowhere.

But it is entirely possible, plausible (although not probable) that Mousavi may well be filling the traditional role of savior/hero that seems to surface every 30 years or so, always with the full intention of saving Iran from evil, always with the caveat, "Just give me some power and time to fix things".

And Iranians always do, and Iranians, the inventors of haggling and the Bazar, usually always get screwed in these deals.

Here's hoping someone kept the receipt on what Mousavi is selling this time, and here's hoping there is a Cosmic Costco somewhere, who will take it back, no questions asked.

Because as we have seen for the past 2500 years, God's customer service department totally sucks.

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