Esfand Aashena
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Paykan is now extinct!
15-May-2012
Every year something is different in Iran that catches your attention. This year was the lack of Paykans on the Iranian cities and roads! Once the working horse of Iranians of different backgrounds and trades, it is now extinct and replaced by Pride!
Armies of Prides from Taxis to unmarked private taxis to private cars have replaced Paykans and now roaming Tehran and country roads! It is actually much flimsier than Paykan and if you are in any kind of accident you're bound to get injured one way or another! Especially if there are 5 passengers or more in the car! I think my beloved Jian had more room!
Starting this summer there are reports that cars older than 20 years will not be allowed to drive in Tehran. That was sad for me because many of the older cars are now antiques and some people have actually taken care of them and they look good and work well. I don't know what will happen to them.
I'll try to write few separate blogs to talk about what I saw and memories this time around. Darband is now under renovations and the beloved Darband Restaurant and Darband Hotel are no longer ;-(
This year people were talking more to me and I felt a little like talking as well. The talk of the day of course are the nuclear discussions, compromises and Khamanei drinking the poison and fucking compromising once and for all! Most people are pinning their hopes. Inflations is sky high and though I don't know the every day purchases of food staples in supermarkets or other items, people everywhere are talking about beef being bizzillion toman and simple things such as string beans being super expensive! Loobia polo is now expensive! Milk is now blackmarketed and shortages abound.
As it is with Ahmadi's stupid policies he is asking vendors NOT to carry some items so that the prices would fall back! Dollar is near 1600 Tomans and has dropped because of possible compromises. Banks are now offering 20% plus interest on 5 year deposits and everyone is putting their money away whether they are poor or rich. If they can gather 10,000 Toman they'll put it away to get 20% interest. I don't know how much are bank loans, didn't ask but assume about 28% or so. I have a bad feeling about the Iranian banking industry and feel like they're running a ponzi scheme. Don't know.
I talked to many people and they're all complaining about everything and blaming the regime. Although, after we complain for 20 minutes or so the conversation gets tiring and they'll start talking about their aspirations and better personal news. As if they want to tell you they're making it. The nationalistic culture shows up and they're ready to rally for Iran.
I was always undecided about sanctions, sort of like Obama's position on Gay Marriage! After my latest trip to Iran I'm against sanctions, not because it's hurting ordinary Iranians and such but because when I look at the 30 some years of Islamic Republic the only times people have risen and protested are the relative times of prosperities. I know some on i.com will ask what prosperity? But I don't care what these people ask, they're entitled to their opinion and I'm entitled to mine and my observations.
All and all people are working and trying for better futures within what's available to them. Same as we do here in America and elsewhere. Of course there are restrictions that we don't face here but they work hard, raise their families and have their lives. Idealists amongst them are leading the way to expect more as it has always been throughout history. At some point if Idealists are successful, which they usually are in the long run, others will join them and demand change, major changes.
As always it was a pleasure to walk among my own people speaking the same language. Now what's this I hear JJJ selling his shares?! He must be the king of leaving i.com! Father of all leaving i.com!
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I agree!
by Esfand Aashena on Tue May 15, 2012 10:04 AM PDTThe "newer paykan" that were made in the past 25+ years was one of the ugliest cars ever made! It looked like a russian car! Nothing like the original Paykan. My favorite models were in 1350s (mid 1970s) with split front grills like this one or this one or the "Young Paykan" pictured in my blog!
If it wasn't because of sanctions it could've made it to the top ten ugliest cars list!
Everything is sacred
Ziyarat ghabool
by Cost-of-Progress on Tue May 15, 2012 09:34 AM PDTThe paykan that was made in the recent years resembled a pile of scarp metal hastily assembled in a junkyard.
Paykan was a nice car before, but it really sucked recently.
شراب جان تشکر جاتون خالی در کافه شمرون صبحانه جانانه ی صرف شد!
Esfand AashenaTue May 15, 2012 08:52 AM PDT
Everything is sacred
...
by Red Wine on Tue May 15, 2012 08:46 AM PDTاسپندِ عزیز و گرامی،خوش برگشتی ...
Faramarz jaan Iranians drive small cars!
by Esfand Aashena on Tue May 15, 2012 08:26 AM PDT98% - 99% of Iranians drive small 4 cyl cars. Of course you see SUVs in Tehran but they're not that many so you don't get to feel small next to them! In America yes, forget SUVs, those big ass 4 door V10 pickup-trucks can crush your Honda under their tires!
Now as far as sanctions I didn't mean to start something as I know it's a waste of time to discuss it for the millionth time! The fact of the matter is that many do not "like" to deal with this regime and Iran is not Facebook where you can like or unlike someone!
You have to deal with Islamic Republic one way (sanctions) or another (internal protests, reforms, etc.). Sanctions will NOT end in regime change, that is just wishful thinking. The architect of these sanctions (Obama) is not looking for regime change!
In the big scheme of things, one can not take the Iranian oil out of the world economy that is ever more dependent on oil and expect the world at large will not be affected and the effects will only be felt in Iran. One can not expect the Russia, China and Indias of the world (the big new oil cosumers) won't take advantage of this opportunity and spoil it to their benefits, which they are.
Besides, at the end of the day Iranians, Iranians who have lived in Iran post Pahlavi, are now programmed to internally live with what they have and make it through. When it gets tough they don't start a regime change, they'll complain but are worried about their own lives. Iran is 80 million now and so crowded, people feel if they take a break for even one second they've fallen behind others and they're so impatient!
Everything is sacred
no, the rumor was that they
by hamsade ghadimi on Tue May 15, 2012 08:18 AM PDTno, the rumor was that they are planning to widen pahlavi. to do that, they'll need to cut the trees to make the street wider. i heard it both from taxi drivers tand business owners (workers) on the street. many people also thought that khamenei has a rare form of cancer and was going to die in 4 months. the usage of 2007 data was to illustrate a 5-year speculation period.
btw, i agree with faramarz's analysis. the west's decision to impose sanctions is to protect their own interest. if they do nothing, they'd be signaling to the iri that everything is a-ok, carry on with your hezbollah and hamas operations, syrian operation, "peaceful" nuclear operation, ... an option to sanctions or "do nothing" approach would be military attack, of course. on the other hand, your "prosperity" theory would mean that if the west did the opposite (of sanctions) and made lots of investments in iri and made the iri economy prosperous, then people will rise up and bring down the regime. i don't buy it.
Also about the Sycamore trees in Pahlavi!
by Esfand Aashena on Tue May 15, 2012 08:02 AM PDTI don't know why in this trip I was remembering some of your explanations but I was! Remember you said a taxi driver told you that Pasdars are cutting those trees intentionally to deny the protestors of using it for cover? Well that was pure USDA bullshit!
In this trip I made a point of taking some pictures of those trees where they have cut them halfway and left the rest to grow again. If they wanted to cut them down to prevent cover they'd cut them from the base! They can still be used for cover!
Yes the rate at the airport is the same as sarrafi. Why are you using 2007 rate? Just last year (2011) the rate was $980 or something and now 1600 toman, not to mention it was 2000 toman. I think this is like the dot com boom or the real estate boom, the big boys are making their money and the little people are giving them their money. I don't know.
Everything is sacred
Pride or Humility!
by Faramarz on Tue May 15, 2012 07:53 AM PDTThere is no Pride sitting in that little car! I am sure it makes one humble next to a SUV.
Welcome back Esfand Jaan.
As you know, the sanctions are meant to deprive the Regime from the sources of funds so that it cannot do harm to the US and its allies and interests. The Regime change would be a nice outcome when and if it happens.
And based on the results so far, it is working. Although, I don't believe that much will come out of the negotiations. So the sanctions will continue.
In my opinion, the battle between the Regime and the civilized world is a zero-sum game. For one to win, the other has to lose and the Regime will compromise when it is weak and only for the purpose of survival. At that point, the strong will show no merci to the weak.
...
by hamsade ghadimi on Tue May 15, 2012 07:53 AM PDTi didn't understand your statement "except it's the same in the airport." do you mean the airport exchange kiosk has the same rate as the regular sarrafi? and i should've told you that they only exchange in 100s. i've done it only once and they just checked that i had a ticket going out that night.
also, you shouldn't compare returns to savings between iri and u.s. esfand. in the past 5 years, iranian currency has deflated around 72% (930 in 2007 to 1,600 tomans now for a dollar). that's a loss of 72%. compare that to a 20% earning. i'd be apprehensive even if they gave me a 50% interest rate for a closed account for 5 years. a better bet would be gold and foreign currency. with the monkey busisness the iri gov't is doing with controlling prices on gold, currency and banking (it is a ponzi scheme), the economy will collapse so hard (if nothing changes) that they will call these days the "golden days" of the economy. never mind that economy is for donkeys.
Hamsade
by Esfand Aashena on Tue May 15, 2012 07:32 AM PDTA little while ago we had a conversation about changing your toman to dollar in the airport and you mentioned that the exchange rate at the airport. So I made a point to take your advice and take some toman and change it at the airport, in transit after the passport check.
Except it's the same in the airport! Also, they don't have change and only $100 bills! Perhaps the rules were changed this year where you had to buy tourist's dollar at the lower rate and then cash it at the airport, except I think you had to give up your passport to be used for documenation and such and I didn't want to lose sight of the passport and give it up to a stranger and god knows where it may end up.
Anyway, I am not sure sanctions are the culprit of the current compromise and besides there is no compromise yet! Personally I think nothing will come out of it when they meet next.
I think without sanctions there could've been other avenues and events that could've had better results. Different results at least, but we will never know.
If the talks fail again nothing will change and Israel and US will not attack Iran. So it's just politics and talk for nothing. Besides the 20% interest rates in your savings account is also the result of the sanctions! Here in US 5 year CD is about 2% - 3% max!
Everything is sacred
good blog esfand. i was
by hamsade ghadimi on Tue May 15, 2012 07:18 AM PDTgood blog esfand. i was there a few months ago when the dollar was stronger. it's sad that peykan is no longer made. i bet that those who made it didn't play ball with the government or fell out of favor because it doesn't make sense to discontinue a car that has been omnipresent in iran for decades. my guess is that it'll make a comeback at some point.
so you believe that the sanctions induced a compromise between the west and iri but you're against it because only in times of "prosperity" people can rise up. interesting. i think you may be still like obama before his latest declaration on gay marriage. i'm sure most people have strong feelings on sanctions one way or another. an old relative of mine who is on fixed retirement income in iran is all for it. go figure.