FG

To Mullocracy on Asymetric Warfare vs. Iran

RE: The only thing I hope is that American Asymmetric warfare strategy is
geared toward eliminating the mullahs one by one, sort of Mafia style.
The only response understood by the mullahs and islamofascists is the
brute (force). 

RESPONSE: The mullahs have been doing it to us and their neighbors for years and we let them get away with it, which encouraged them to continue and get worse.  It's cheap and effective especially if you use local surrogates.  It also beats war.   The USA can use "cheap and effective" these days, ASSUMING we had anything to do with it which is NOT clear.  That's the nice thing about the "silence" policy described in the Times article. It's purpose may have been pyschological only.

Either way, officials of the Islamic Repunlic can hardly play cry babies now, given their consistent aggression toward outsiders over the years (They destroyed a prosperous Lebanon!)  This may be an an unanticipated and unwelcome return on "investments." 

Great!  They also should have considered the boomerang potential inherent in such a strategy.   So long as they correctly estimated Bush wouldn't be bright enough to respond in kind it was a cost-free choice.   Perhaps Payback time is here for the regime.

THINGS THE MULLAHS SHOULD HAVE THOUGHT OF BEFORE CHOOSING ASYMETICAL AGGRESSION

--That their victims could reverse the tactics in which case it wouldn't be so cost free.

--How vulnerable they were to the same, given mass discont and hatred they've "earned" back home.  A feeling of "we owe you one" is as widespread among Iranians as among the regime's foreign victims (How many Sunnis did the Al Mahdi army kill in Iraq under Iran's sponsorship?)

--If Al-Quds can teach local Iraquis, Afghans, Lebanese bomb making skills and supply them with weaponry, what might the the Seals, Green Berets, the SAS (UK), Mossad, the Saudis manage among a population so alienated? This regime thinks it can play with the big boys and get away without consequences only because Bush allowed it.  Perhaps Obama has made a strategy change.  Who knows?

--A nice advantage of asymetic warfare is DENIABILITY which lying mullahs have always exploited.  So can one's enemies of which this regime now has so many.

--Another nice feature of this policy when used against Iran is psychological, especially in Iran's case.  The regime has made so many enemies abroad it could be anyone.   It also could be internal enemies acting on their own.  You can get lots of into about bomb making using simple materials on the internet.  There are surely many discontent troops willing to supply target information. Meanwhile, was the "silent strategy" described in the NY Times for real or was in a scare tactic to discombobulate the rattled mullahs further?

--As the initial aggressor against America (the embassy hostages, the marine barracks in Lebanon, who committed so many crimes against Americans without a state of war, the regime can hardly label any use of the same tactics in reverse as "foreign aggression."

--Since Iran attacked first, starting with the marine barracks in Lebanon, and even though a state of war did not exist, they can't complain any American counteraction would constitute "aggression."  

--Inability to exploit nationalism.  That trick worked for the regime in 1979 but it ain't working anymore.   Too many Iranians have suffered at this regime's hands.  I doubt the regime can win them over by playing "Rally 'Round the Flag' now.  As things get worse and if open conflict breaks out, I suspect many will INSIST on a no fly zone, as is happening in Syria.

WHY YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET!

If Assad falls in Syria and the mullahs attemt to create a surrogate in Iran, they will find themselves in a "flies have captured the flypaper" kind of trap.  Kurds and Sunnis there no how to fight asymetric war and the latter have substantial bombmaking skills.   I'm sure they'll be glad to help out Iranians against a regime that has been using surrogates to target them.

The latest on Embassy Attack & on Isfahan explosion

WOULD YOU BET YOUR LIFE ON IT?: The head of the Basij militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, has explained in a television interview tells TV that the US cannot fight back if it is attacked by by the Islamic Republic.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=2740522069411

IS THIS CLAIM TYPICAL FOR REGIME OR NOT?:  And in one of the more unusual statements of the day, Tehran Provincial
Governor Morteza Tamaddon, who appeared at the Embassy at one point,
said that it was functioning normally.

ENDURING AMERICA'S THEORY: We are considering that today's often-confused events stem from tensions
within the Iranian regime, with factions supporting the demonstrators
and others opposing the attack on the British Embassy, and this
development supports the hypothesis --- the Foreign Ministry has regretted the attack.
MPs Esmail Kowsari, Hamid Rasaei, Zohreh Elahian, Mohammad Karamirad,
and Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, and the Islamic Engineers Society endorsed
it; however, their colleague Abdoljabbar Karami has expressed criticism.  (Agree or Disagree)

PLACE YOUR BETS AGAIN:Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security
Committee, has said that demonstrators were "expressing their inner
feelings" when they stormed the British Embassies, but he added that
other embassies should not be worried about similar attacks.

SCOTT LUCAS OF EA ON THE ISFAHAN EXPLOSION AND THE PERPS:

Even without the haphazard reaction of the authorities, suspicions
would have centred this morning on an act of sabotage. One loud boom
might be a misfortune, but two are far more than an accident. Only two
weeks ago, a Revolutionary Guards base west of Tehran, one involved in
missile development, had been struck by a large explosion. A satellite
image which emerged yesterday (see top of entry) showed the physical
destruction even if the number of killed --- officially, it is 17;
indications point to a toll as high as 37 --- is uncertain.

And it is not just "two". The Islamic Republic has been beset over
the last year by a series of incidents affecting oil refineries and
pipelines. Someone does not want the Supreme Leader's vision of progress
to take hold, in the economic or military spheres.

Whodunit in Isfahan? The stark reality is that few if any people ---
beyond the perpetrators --- know this morning. Of course, the Israelis
will be Suspect No. 1, possibly with the Americans as accomplices, but
there are groups within Iran that would be quite happy to give the
regime a punch in the eye. And it cannot be ruled out that the latest
events are part of the escalating fight within the establishment.

What did they hit yesterday? That is also unclear this morning...

Yet if no target, let alone culprit, has been identified, we can
still measure an effect this morning. Beyond any direct impact, the
blasts are designed to spread uncertainty --- about both the attackers
and the regime. Why, for example, should Israeli officials deny
responsibility, even if West Jerusalem had no connection? The
psychological effect on Tehran of "the bogeyman is going to get us" may
already be a victory for Israel, even if the regime will try to turn
that around by mobilising the public in its defence. Similarly, expect
unnamed US officials to put out dark hints that their covert operations
are having the desired outcome, reinforcing sanctions and making an
overt military strike unnecessary.

Within Iran, the explosions do not take place in the isolation ---
nukes, nukes, nukes --- often framed by media outside the country. They
interact with other instability and uncertainty that is already present,
from the fragile economic situation to the political in-fighting that
is threatening President Ahmadinejad to --- possibly --- tensions within
the military, including the Revolutionary Guards. 

Nothing is settled in the Islamic Republic these days. And
yesterday's incident --- be it attack, sabotage, or water boiler ---
adds another loud ripple to the turbulence.

Adopting Asymmetric warfare

This is no surprise. Enemies throughout history have adopted each others' battlefield tactics, strategy, and even political & economic strategies. There was no doubt in my mind that sooner or later terrorism would be utilized by the U.S to react to IR, and you know what? it is about time. The only thing I hope is that American Asymmetric warfare strategy is geared toward eliminating the mullahs one by one, sort of Mafia style. The only response understood by the mullahs and islamofascists is the brute force, and killings, and now they got it.

On another front, I hope that intelligence agencies on the domestic front are monitoring IR supporters, and would eventually deport their islamofascist back to their beloved society. That would be a topping on the cake. The more IR pulls these kind of nonsense, they more we will be approaching that day..

Iranian's analysis + Is Obama giving regime a dose of its own?

I found this in the "letters" section of a Washington Post story on the embassy takeover.

Not at all that this makes it a good thing, it is not. But I am saying for anyone who cares, look beneath the surface appearances. I have had two extended trips to Iran in recent years, and have been all around the country. As an obvious American, I was received everywhere with courtesy, respect, and civility.

Iran is changing very fast. It has a large and growing, educated and westernized economic class, more women than men have advanced university degrees, they drive and vote, and has a major underground of artists, intellectuals and literati (what we would call liberals), ALL of whom are sick and tired of the present theocratic Mullah dominated state. Trust me on that.

Recently, we have seen the splitting of the conservative factions that to date have formed the backbone of the IRI. The current elected president (Ahmadinejad) is in increasing and fierce conflict with the Guardian Council, being the core of the Mullah leadership of the state. Even elements of the Revolutionary Guards have grown greatly disillusioned with the thuggish clampdown on protesters.

We should not provoke a new war that would result in vast chaos worldwide, geopolitical, economic, and military. They can easily close the Straights of Hormuz via small ship actions, mining, and missile strikes. They need not defeat or sink the American navy to do this. Insurance rates on tanker traffic would do the job very nicely. 40% of all the world's petroleum transits the Straights of Hormuz. A new war with petroleum price spikes to who knows what, would collapse the fragile American economy, not to mention the whole world economy, like a house of cards. China would NOT be pleased.

I hope no one takes this as an apology for the regime. It is just an appeal for calm and reason. And after all, if we had not overthrown the Iranian democracy in 1953 via the CIA’s Operation Ajax, which put the hated Shah back on the throne for several decades (he had been expelled at that time), none of this would have happened. Let us not compound historic mistakes by making a greater one now.

Iranian's analysis + Is Obama giving regime a dose of its own?

I found this in the "letters" section of a Washington Post story on the embassy takeover.

Not at all that this makes it a good thing, it is not. But I am saying for anyone who cares, look beneath the surface appearances. I have had two extended trips to Iran in recent years, and have been all around the country. As an obvious American, I was received everywhere with courtesy, respect, and civility.

Iran is changing very fast. It has a large and growing, educated and westernized economic class, more women than men have advanced university degrees, they drive and vote, and has a major underground of artists, intellectuals and literati (what we would call liberals), ALL of whom are sick and tired of the present theocratic Mullah dominated state. Trust me on that.

Recently, we have seen the splitting of the conservative factions that to date have formed the backbone of the IRI. The current elected president (Ahmadinejad) is in increasing and fierce conflict with the Guardian Council, being the core of the Mullah leadership of the state. Even elements of the Revolutionary Guards have grown greatly disillusioned with the thuggish clampdown on protesters.

We should not provoke a new war that would result in vast chaos worldwide, geopolitical, economic, and military. They can easily close the Straights of Hormuz via small ship actions, mining, and missile strikes. They need not defeat or sink the American navy to do this. Insurance rates on tanker traffic would do the job very nicely. 40% of all the world's petroleum transits the Straights of Hormuz. A new war with petroleum price spikes to who knows what, would collapse the fragile American economy, not to mention the whole world economy, like a house of cards. China would NOT be pleased.

I hope no one takes this as an apology for the regime. It is just an appeal for calm and reason. And after all, if we had not overthrown the Iranian democracy in 1953 via the CIA’s Operation Ajax, which put the hated Shah back on the throne for several decades (he had been expelled at that time), none of this would have happened. Let us not compound historic mistakes by making a greater one now.

Basijis and the Brits

Ironic, isn't it that after all the things the Brits have done to prop up Shiasim (the divide and conquer thingy) and the turbanned masters of the alliance of reesh-o pashm, their goons pay them back with this kind of disrespect.

____________

IRAN FIRST

____________

THE LATEST NEWS: Iran regime acts as all predicted

The state-run Fars News ... skillfully diverts the blame from the government and portrays it as an
independent action taken by angry student protesters. This is contrast
to the 'students' chanting slogans that clearly indicated they were
members of the paramilitary Basij force....

The embassy building is now emptied of protesters and security forces
are in control of the situation, stationed inside and around the two
buildings. As Fars News reports that all protesters have left, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs just released a statement
expressing 'disappointment' over what what it called 'the unacceptable
actions of a few protesters' who gathered in front of the UK Embassy
even though the security forces tried to stop them.

COMMENT:

As predicted the regime "apologizes" and blames spontaneous action by demonstators.

NOTE THE LIE in the last sentence.  Videos show otherwise.

***

NEWS ITEM: The statement calls for security agencies to take actions against the
perpetrators of these actions and reaffirms Iran's commitment to
international treaties.

COMMENT: That'll be the day.  A few will be punished as examples, given a cushy detension with cakes and pies (no beatings, rapes or hangings) and released after a short time, as usual.   The folks who ordered this attack--Khamenei himself, his close buddy Taeb and Mesbah Yadzi whose brainwashed seminary students carried it out--won't be touched.

I am so happy this happened

Now the UK has learned how it feels to appease and compromise with a criminal.

Nooshe Jooneshoon. 

//www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2011/11/111128_pics_british_embassy_attack.shtml

Three timely proposals

Three Proposals

CLOSE ALL IRANIAN EMBASSIES ABROAD AND EXPEL THEIR DIPLOMATS.

CLOSE ALL FOREIGN EMBASSIES IN IRAN MUST LEST THEY ALSO PROVIDE CONVENIENT TARGETS FOR REGIME INVASION & HOSTAGE TAKING.

ALL TRAVEL BY FOREIGN TOURISTS OR BUSINESS PERSONS TO IRAN SHOULD BE DISCOURAGED FOR THEIR OWN SAFETY

Revoke their passports otherwise. Over the past few years many have been taken hostage or imprisoned in Iran.

***

Even Hitler and Stalin refrained from attacking embassies.  Iran's ruling mullahs need to be punished in a way that will discourage any future government anywhere from using embassies as pawns for intimidation policies. 

This is the same outlaw regime that constantly ships "destabilization" weapons to neighboring minorities in order to extend its authority by creating new Hezbollahs, yet claims to want friendly relations and support.

Today they made jerks of themselves not only in Iran or the West but everywhere in the Arab Spring, showing Islamist parties especially the undesirability of the Iranian model for any sane party or nation.

Another attack 6 miles away is also "spontaneous?"

From the Washington Post (featuring my caps)

The militants also infiltrated the British diplomats’ residential
compound, about SIX MILES north of the embassy complex. At least two
vehicles there were set on fire, the Web sites said.

***

 Six miles away?  At the same time?  Spontaneous?  Anyone believe that?

The Basilj is under Khamenei's direct control.

The Post story already has 460 reactions.   The Guardian and Al Jazeerah should also have interesting stuff today.

ABADAN FIRE OBSERVATION:

Finally, recalling the Abadan fire, it's interesting that the extremist mullahs chose a predominantly Sunni location as the ideal place for "setting an example" for other Iranians who persisted in undesired behavior.

One way in which the ruling mullahs in Iran differ from their good buddy Assad in Syria is in their policies toward minorities.  Assad courts them and depends on them.  The mullahs have always persecuted them.  Like the economic grievances, this is something the Green leaders failed to exploit.

بیش از سی‌ سال دیوانه بازی

*

Islamic Republic should be expelled from the UN

and all nations should sever diplomatic ties with it in light of its lack of respect for international law and diplomatic missions.  

So much for those who push for dialogue and diplomacy ..

Reuters: "Iranian protesters have stormed the British Embassy compound in Tehran, smashing windows, hurling petrol bombs and burning the British flag during a rally to protest against sanctions imposed by Britain. Several dozen protesters broke away from a crowd of a few hundred protesters outside the main embassy compound in downtown Tehran, scaled the embassy gates and went inside. Iranian security forces did little to stop them. The semi-official Mehr news agency said protesters pulled down the British flag, burned it, and put up the Iranian flag. Unconfirmed reports also suggested that the protesters had taken hostages. Inside, the demonstrators threw stones and petrol bombs. One waved a framed picture of Queen Elizabeth... The attacks, carried live on Iranian state television showed, followed the rapid approval by Iran's Guardian Council of a parliamentary bill compelling the government to expel the British ambassador in retaliation for the sanctions, and warnings from a lawmaker that angry Iranians could storm the British embassy as they did to the U.S. mission in 1979. The British Foreign Office said it was outraged by the incursion into embassy." //t.uani.com/rSIBya

Opposition activists show police assisted incursion

Video from Press TV posted on YouTube
earlier on Tuesday appeared to show that the rally was small and
somewhat subdued before the compound was breached. The Press TV
correspondent also noted that there were a large number of “police and
security forces and diplomatic police” outside the embassy’s gates
before they were stormed.

 More footage, apparently taken from the state television feed by
opposition activists and posted on YouTube, appeared to show that the
students outside the embassy were allowed to climb over the compound’s front gate and pry it open without being stopped by the security forces.

From NY Times

It's being broadcast live on state TV.

Storming of British Embassy in Tehran Broadcast Live on State Television

 //thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/storming-of-british-embassy-in-tehran-broadcast-live-on-state-television/

Things are heating up. Check that link

EA has a lot more details now than when I first started writing about two hours ago.  Yet no one has reported this news item here yet.  As I write, it seems to be getting out of hand. 

For one thing, the Basilj seem to have admitted involvement.  Only "student" attackers were referred to in the previous item.

Secondly, the Basilj may or may not have gone what their masters intended.  They now refuse to leave.  This could get interesting.   Perhaps the mullahs unpopped a bottle and got more than they intended.