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How Obama can triumph in November and prevail in the Middle East
08-Sep-2012
Until Canada showed the way, every alternative for dealing with Syria and Iran has been too unpalatable. Barack Obama will win a close race if he manages to thwart Assad and Khamenei prior to elections via moves as tough as anything neo-cons advocate but which by contrast involve no big military or treasury costs. Before it is too late, Obama can also reverse growing animosity toward a "do-nothing" West. His reputation for statesmanship would go up everywhere, especially in the history books.
A MASTERSTROKE PROPOSITON: Only shock treatment can encourage Khamenei and Assad to back off. Why not take the lead in persuading France, Germany and Turkey and other western nations to do what Canada just did for the same reasons? They'd have motives to go along: similar goals, similar constraintsand a universal disdain for Romney and the Neo-cons. Anything that might prevent a Romney victory would seem motive enough. The only downside I can see is the loss of a few "eyes" and ears." Considering what might be gained, that is a small price.
WHO WOULD GO ALONG? Even one or two might do the trick. High probables are thoe who most complain of inaction (France and Turkey). Any others are a bonus, multiplying the effect. A few months ago Erdogan would have balked, but lack of viable alternatives, a growing refugee crisis, Iranian assistance to the PKK and the arrest of alleged IRI agents in Eastern Turkey have led to bitter divorce. Erdogan has been crying for action. This is his chance.
POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON SYRIA: Further regime demoralization and related defections. A growing sense of doom. Possible restraint by Iran in providing assistance. Encouraging Putin to drop support for a losing cause.
GREATER POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON IRAN: Imagine the psychological impact on a population already fed up with so many regime policies at present, The immediate effect on the rial's value alone would likely be substantial. What would more diplomatic breaches do for Iran's persistent denial of pariah status. Lack of diplomatic relations with the USA, Britain and Canada is already unpopular.
| Recently by FG | Comments | Date |
|---|---|---|
| MORSI’S “KHOUMEINI ACT” MAY SAVE SYRIANS FROM AN IRAN-STYLE FATE | 1 | Dec 02, 2012 |
| Dec. 1st roundup: Turkey-IRI tensions grow/ Assad's troubles mount | 4 | Dec 01, 2012 |
| EA analyst: REGIME'S FALL COULD BE IMMINENT!" | 5 | Nov 29, 2012 |
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IRCG thug: "Iran would take action if US invades Syria"
by FG on Sun Sep 09, 2012 08:43 AM PDTEXCERPT:
If America were to attack Syria, Iran along with Syria's allies will take action, which would amount to a fiasco for America," Mohammad Ali Assoudi, the deputy for culture and propaganda of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was quoted as saying.
Assoudi's comments were first carried by the government-linked news agency Young Journalists' Club but were later apparently taken down from the group's website. The comments were picked up by Iranian news sites including Iran's Jam-e Jam newspaper and the BBC's Persian-language site.
Iranian officials were not immediately available for comment.
//www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/us-syria-crisis-iran-idUSBRE88007120120901
ANALYSIS:
Nice tough talk. The general sounds like the Big Bad Wolf in the Grimm Brothers fairy tale ("I'll huff and I'll pull and I'll blow your house in."
I'd say the last thing the regime can afford in an economic or military sense right now is such a move, especially since it would mean taking on NATO, including Turkey.
I can only imagine the enthusiastic support it would get from Iran's people and soldiers. The former are more likely to revolt and root for the enemy. The latter are more likely to defect and surrender or join the people.
The IRI and its extremely reactionary, brutal, reform hating leader are ultra-unpoular these days and for good reason.
Why the FSA pays little heed to Syrian National Council
by FG on Sat Sep 08, 2012 11:55 PM PDTThe Syrian National Council has failed to galvanize international support for the rebellion -- and it has only itself to blame.
//www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/07/the_bunch_that_cant_shoot_straight
A "can't lose" proposal?
by FG on Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:46 PM PDTThe Worst That Can Happen: No one follows Canada's example.
Obama get credit for trying something original instead of going to war, risking anti-air weapons in the hand of extreme Islamists or negotiating with a man as universally repugnant as Assad.
The Next Worst Scenario: Several Nations Go Along But Only Half the Potential Consequences Come Into Play
Even half will do subtantial damage, especially in Khamenei's case. By comparison, the West presently offers "No bad consequences at all" for Syria and "not nearly what is possible" for Iran.
What can Khamenei or Assad do to retaliate?
Complain, whine, cry or squeal. Can you think of anything else?
For Rea
by FG on Sat Sep 08, 2012 06:15 PM PDTI doubt the IRI gives a damn if Palestinians get hammered by Assad. Khameneni's anti-Israel rhetoric is deigned to further IRI regional ambitions for dominance. It has nothing at all to do with any genuine concern for Palestinian. Would a man who would murder and imprison so many of his own people to retain absolute power and prevent reform be capable of caring about more distant "others?"
For IRI purposes, Palestinians fall into the category of "useful" Sunnis.
Likewise, most anti-US rhetoic has nothing to do with hating the USA (except when it comes to perceived cultural contamination) and everything to do with domestic political purposes. Usefulness: exploit Iranian nationalism, justify oppression, enable accuations that any public disconent is artificialy provoked by mischievous foreigner. After all, there is no reason for real discontent, is there?
On Syria: Troops Storm Palestinian Refugee Camp Yarmouk In Damas
by Rea on Sat Sep 08, 2012 01:50 PM PDTWhat will IRI now do, scorn their Syrian protégé or organize anti-Assad demonstrations ?
//www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/08/syria-crisis-yarmouk_n_1866870.html?utm_hp_ref=world
Is the Regime Better off Today than 4 Years ago?
by Faramarz on Sat Sep 08, 2012 01:40 PM PDTOr as Senator Kerry asked this week, "Is Bin Laden better off today than 4 years ago?"
20 years of Republican Presidency during the Regime's 34-year reign has only given us hostage deals, arms for the Regime, chocolate cake delivered by Oliver North and Cheney's Halliburton projects in Iran.
Four more years, and four more beers for Barack Hussein (no drama) Obama!
Kicking Ass and Taking Names, (quietly and confidently!)
Your Boy,O-Bambi, should prevail,,half the electorate has a womb
by bushtheliberator on Sat Sep 08, 2012 01:26 PM PDTand my dear Republicans have nominated another Rhino (with special underwear yet !), and promoted the repeal of Roe VS Wade which is the social equivalent of calling for a re- invasion of Viet Nam to establish a democratic republic there. "Vote Republican, and you'll need to do YOUR OWN abortion with a metal clotheshanger "
OBambi's pinned down in Ohio, and neither Syria nor Iran is on his agenda