If Syrians can do this, why can't Iranians do the same?

Balatarin
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FG
by FG
16-Mar-2012
 

From Enduring America:

One year ago the protests started, and in the last week alone new towns and cities have joined the uprising. Protests today were large, defiant, and were in every area of the country. Even Aleppo and Damascus are now host to regular protests, and the areas around these citties are opposition strongholds. Even forcing government workers to attend pro-government rallies cannot net Assad the large crowds of support that he once enjoyed. More people are joining the protests, and more people who are not in the opposition are refusing to speak up in support of the government.

The violence is not working. The opposition is not going anywhere. The debate about how to end this crisis rages, but the crowds are undeterred. Without intervention, next Friday there will be huge protests in nearly every area of Syria. A month from now, with our without intervention, that will not change. Will it change in 6 months? In 12? In 18? The protests have only a single trend - with every passing month, more people die, and more people join the Syrian uprising.

This is the fact that most analysis overlooks. No matter what the international community does, until Bashar al Assad is out of power there will be protests. And unless foreign nations stop him, Assad will continue to shoot and arrest the protesters. This is the cycle that will not end anytime soon. 

REGARDING MY OPENING QUESTION:

Khamenei will never allow the IRI to evolve into a more democratic, humane and prosperous society through reform. The regime is more extreme than ever and its discredited, rigged elections offer no way out.  Unless someone of the stature of Khoumeini's grandson can save the day by winning the presidency next year, Iranians would seem to have only two choices.   

#1: Resign themselves to living with tyranny, isolation and further Saudi-ization. 

Indiviudals who find that impossible to endure may seek escape via emigration, suicide or drugs. Emigration is preferable, but the world will hardly accept tens of millions of fleeing Iranians, no matter how talented.

#2: Follow the Syrian example and hope the outside world will intervene in limit slaughter.  

Iranians are an intelligent, talented and brave people who deserve better.  It seems to me they are worse off at present that the Syrian people were when the first demonstrations began there.   Why have they tolerated it?  

Do you see any third alternative?

Balatarin
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FG

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by FG on Sat Mar 17, 2012 12:27 PM PDT

Police call for extradition of Iran-linked suspects and cite connections with car bomb that wounded Israeli diplomat's wife

//www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/17/india-link-iran-delhi-bangkok-explosions

 


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Roozbeh_Gilani

FG: every country will have it's own unique path to democracy.

by Roozbeh_Gilani on Sat Mar 17, 2012 11:45 AM PDT

So whilst I agree with the core of your arguement, namely that the islamic republic is not reformable and must/will  be overthyrown through violence, I dont agree that we have only two choices that you named.

I dare say  that Islamist regime's downfall will be more like French monarchy's (French revolution)- albeit a modern version of it - than Saddam's.....

 

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."


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FG

Amir is a regime agent posing as a monarchist

by FG on Sat Mar 17, 2012 11:37 AM PDT

He has been assigned to discredit the Pahlavis by making them look bad, stupid and no different than the ruling clerics. 

Why would any monarchist propose waiting for peaceful evolution when it's obvious that Khamenei has slammed that door?

Why would any monarchist praise Samoza, Khaddafi, Mubarek, etc., as Amir has done previously?

After the IRI's regional schemes and its consequence isolation, what monarchist would promote xenophobia and advocate a "Greater Iran" as Amir has in the past.  Iranians know neighbors would hardly tolerate such a project and aggression has high costs.  The process is similar to flies capturing the flypaper.   Countries that get rich today don't need imperial schemes and often find the elimination of empire leads to more prosperity, not less.   What century is Amir living in? 

Who but a nut case would suggest the West supports and loves the IRI (probably for the Saudi plot, the American Embassy siege and a year of hostage holding, the Lebanon marine barracks, etc.)? Where is the proof?  Where is the motive?

No Problem!  As always when the regime speaks, none is required.

 


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amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Arash a libyan syrian approach is wrong for Iranians period

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Sat Mar 17, 2012 10:09 AM PDT

In order to make a change that lasts the test of time, it needs to be a permanent change based on widespread support and done peacefully.  If you feel that is impossible now then you need to acknowledge that this is not the correct time for a true change.  I believe peaceful change by the mass of Iranians at this point in time is possible and our issue is not Iranians, but the west/usa that supports the IRI and loves them for Iran.  If the mullahs lose USA/UK support they are done, it is the only thing that allows their systematic repression to work.  The US/UK/French game is really not sustainable indefinitly, politically it has big problems. 


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FG

Responding to a regime stooge

by FG on Sat Mar 17, 2012 11:18 AM PDT

RE: The Syrian "model" 

Models inspire imitation.  Like Brezhnev's Russia, Syria and Iran are economic flops and far more brutal.  Yet you imply someone would be nutty enough to emulate them.   Who?  Please let us know. 

Re: Western neo-colonialism

Syrians and Iranians are not sick of life under brutal tyrannnies.  They have no nationalism.   All they desire is to become western colonies.  They try to disguise this by demanding intervention of humanitarian grounds. That no protestor has ever spoken up for neo-colonial rule actually proves secret intent.   All this must be true because you say so.   Why do stupid, neo-colonialists in the West not seize on these open invitations, especially since Syria is as rich in natural resouces as  Bangladesh? 

RE: The flattering remarks about iroonis' intelligence

My compliment doesn't apply to all Iranians.  

Inflation may be above 30% and unemployment massive, especially among College grads (50% unemployment), yet Ahmainejad promised once again yesterday that all will have jobs as his term ends.  One segment of the population--mainly less educated fanatically religious primitives from the boondocks--will be dumb enough to believe. These glacially slow learners must catch on eventually but it will take time.

Everyone else hoots, mocks and snickerx when it comes to the regime's economic promises, its claims of promoting justice and human rights, its guarantees of "fair and unrigged" elections and its assurances that foreigners and the BBC are behind all discontent.  Of course such discontent has no natural and indigenous causes.  Nevertheless I'm amazed that the bungling CIA has become so omnipotent and omnipresent overnight to achieve so much.  However, if you say so it must be true.

While you are here, can you please enlighten us on why many oilless nations (S. Korea, Turkey) have left the IRI in the economic dust since 1979 while other once Third World nations (Vietnam, China, India) show strong signs that they too will surpass the IRI someday.

RE: (Iranians are...) opting out of the disasterous Libyan-style freedom seeking

Argument by analogy is a formal logical fallacy.  Different variables = different outcomes.  Thus, given similar slaughters, Iranians will seek outside help and with more success.   

After it's over, the situation will be far more favorable than in Libyan and Iran because the populations and their mind-shaping  experierces are 180 degrees different.  Besides, even if a Libyan-style outcome were possible (it isn't), people say, "Could life be any worse than life than life under Assad and Khamenei today?"

Iranians are far more educated and sophisticated than Libyans.  They've had far more exposure to western culture and Enlightenment concepts of human rights. Living under Islamist rule for 33 years has destroyed all illusions about trusting the clerics and their Islamist parties.  Mosques are empty of the young in a young country.  Where else in the muslim world are so many people "defecting" to atheism, Zorastrianism and Christianity--anything but Islam? 

When the IRI does fall, two of its most shortsighted IRI policies (persecuting minorities, handing the economy over to IRCG bodyguards) may cause trouble but western intervention won't have caused that. 

RE: nuclear technology is our national right and peaceful property

Who wouldn't agree...providing the IRI can be trusted to behave like a normal state led ty normal people.  If no one believes IRI promises, the cause lies in the regime's history of outlaw behavior toward almost everyone

It's self-evident to most Iranians that the best .way to achieve "peaceful prosperity" is to dump the hopeless Islamic theocracy and follow the examples of others who passed Iran by since 1979.


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Arash Kamangir

Iranians have no confidence and only little courage

by Arash Kamangir on Sat Mar 17, 2012 06:48 AM PDT

The exceesive oppression of people by IR has taken the courage and confidence away from Iranians. We all know that IR can only be brought down in a uprising similar to Libya and syria. Unfortuately lack of a charismatic leader is not helping either. That is why many of see the only solution in a foreign invention.


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پندارنیک

....

by پندارنیک on Sat Mar 17, 2012 02:23 AM PDT

The Syrian model is proving itself as a real hurdle for the Western ultra-neo colonialism...........long story.......please read history in a couple of years for a better comprehension...........

The flattering remarks about iroonis' intelligence and "the stuff" is appreciated, and maybe the reason for opting out of the disasterous Libyan-style freedom seeking and the rest.............

Do I have to remind it here too, that the nuclear technology is our national right and peaceful property?


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