Monday's upcoming funeral puts regime on the spot no matter what it does

FG
by FG
20-Dec-2009
 

LET'S SUPPOSE THE REGIME FORBIDS PUBLIC MOURNING:

People's grief is so deep and genuine, millions will defy Khamenei.  In this case it will be a far angrier crowd unlikely to tolerate his club wielders.  Because such a command won't deter anyone (people are too angry), it's effect will be to demonstrate both the regime's lack of legitimacy and its increasing weakness.

Can Khamenei depend on increasingly demoralized security forces to wield its clubs one more time--especially if the crowds are than big?  Even if they do it will undermine morale further.   Surely many Basilj know that Montezeri--not Khamenei--was originally intended as Khoumeini's successor and how much less troubled Iran might be today had that happened.

LET'S SUPPOSE THE REGIME ALLOWS PUBLIC MOURNING:

The crowds may well be as big bigger than those right after the stolen election.  I suspect they may be as massive as those who turned out to mourn Khoumeini.  Then as now, the mourning could go on for days.  It will be just as deep and heaertfelt.  Considering the regime's attacks on Montezeri since his death, that is a slap in the face for Khamenei since it demonstrates his own popularity and that of the regime he created.   How will such numbers be explained away? 

BY CONTRAST, WHO WILL MOURN WHEN KHAMENEI DIES?

State organs will praise Iran's Ceacescu but I doubt even 100 GENUINE mourners will show up.  That excludes those paid to attend, Basilj types bussed in under orders or the tiny and privliged in-crowd grieving the loss of a meal ticket.  

Party time?  For every genuine mourner, I suspect there will be 100 people celebrating.

Balatarin
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Shifteh Ansari

FG

by Shifteh Ansari on Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:18 AM PST

Thanks for the post.  I don't know if you can read Farsi, but the following link (the website is reliable) says that Iran's highway police has said all roads are open.  The report says there is heavy traffic.  Things will be a lot worse tomorrow.

 

//norooznews.info/news/15688.php


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FG

Riot police gather; Qom-Tehran highway closed?

by FG on Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:14 AM PST

In its article on Montazeri's death, the NY Times says there are signs the regime is clearly preparing for a showdown, including reports of riot police gathering in Qom and government preparations to close the main highway between Qom and Tehran.

Protests have already started at two Tehran universities while students in Montazeri's hometown have set fire to two buses and clashed with riot police. 

 


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FG

Montazeri disciple arrested on way to Qom, other warned

by FG on Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:35 AM PST

The following three items are from a news roundup at Tehran Bureau: 

KHAMENEI REGIME DETAINS MONTAZERI DISCIPLE

Rahe Sabz | Dec. 20, 2009

Ahmad Qabel, a religious scholar and one of the disciples of the late Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, has been arrested.

Qabel who was en route to Qom from Mashhad with his family members to participate in the late Ayatollah's funeral was taken into custody and returned to Mashhad.

Qabel is an outspoken critic of Iran's leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and has accused him of religious dictatorship and mismanaging the country for which he was jailed on a number of occasions.

There was no information about Qabel's captors or where he was being held.

SECURITY THUGS WARN ACTIVISTS AGAINST MOURNING 

 

Security agents on Sunday afternoon contacted a number of political activists and journalists and threatened to arrest them if they participated in Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri's funeral.

Many of the activists have confirmed the report in telephone interviews with the JARAS reporter.

One of these individuals told JARAS that intelligence officials warned him that he would be arrested before reaching Qom should he decide to participate in the funeral procession.

KHAMENEI ASKS ALLAH TO "FORGIVE" MONTAZERI

Iran's Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei extended his condolences for the death of Shia Source of Emulation Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri

Ayatollah Khamenei described Ayatollah Montazeri as "a well-versed jurist and a prominent master", adding that "many disciples have benefited greatly from him."

"Ayatollah Montazeri spent a long period of his life serving the late founder of the Islamic Revolution and made many efforts and suffered much hardship for advancing this cause," he said. "Toward the end of the Imam's life there came a time of a great and dangerous test and I ask God in all his compassion to forgive him [Montazeri for failing that test] and consider his [Montazeri's] earthly struggles as a punishment (collateral) for that [failed test]."

By test, Ayatollah Khamenei was referring to the incident that resulted in the removal of Ayatollah Montazeri from his position as the successor to Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini and subsequent exile. Montazeri challenged the notion of the Rule of the Just Jurisprudent, which is the foundation of the lifetime rule of one cleric as the Leader of Iran.

 

 


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