FG

FG

It is not the fault of IC readers that your blogs are buried. None of us have any control over what gets featured and what is buried. The only input we got is to make a lot of posts and then it shows as "most discussed".

I get how discouraging it is. I myself wrote a blog on a very important historical figure "Ahmad Kasravi". This was on the occasion of his birthday. There was another blog the same day. It was on a Hollywood actor. Well guess which got the most posts. It was not Ahmad Kasravi. How a Hollywood actor is more important than Kasravi is beyond me. Anyway this is how it it.

Just one thing I want to add. You showed remarkable insensitivity to Iranians over Persian Gulf. Nevertheless your blogs are some of the most informative. Maybe if you are more sensitive you get more posts and show in "most discussed". Plus just because I don't post does not mean I don't read your blogs. I do read them but as I said I was not going to post until you showed sensitivity. This is an exception I make so you don't feel ignored. It is being "sensitive" to your feeling. 

Goodbye, all. Tired of seeing posts like this buried

Yesterday, I posted this blog on Six countries Iranians should keep an eye
on.  It appeared on the home page briefly then disappeared about an hour later.  At least this one eventually reappeared--at least 12 hours later.  What's going on?  I find this sort of inexplicable behavior too frequently here of late.

It took me
hours to write the above, as is the case with most analysis posts but not news post.  What a waste of my time to put in such effort and see an analysis buried.  Is the piece that bad, or is someone playing games here.  Well it's you forum, your rules but if you do so you'll drive away serious posters.  If you disagree with an analysis do so, but if I want censorship I could move to Iran.  Why bother putting HOURS into writing something and posting it here?

In the late evening I posted--in the news section--a very good article
from Tehran Bureau about how Khamenei has become a leading figure of
ridicule in Iran (which you've read here if you were lucky enough to
find it.)   Six Hours later I find it doesn't appear on the first
page and consequently has only 28 reads.  Again, what's the point?   Anyone who bothers to read the Tehran Bureau article will surely agree its worthy of not being buried.  At least it didn't take much time to
prepare. 

I could understand if the posts were
frivolous or not worth reading.  Does someone with editing power have a grudge because something in my analysis above offended?  I can't figure out the reasons for this but why write hours for a back pages burial when I know a news story or analysis is decent?  I often look forward to some sort of discussion here after posting and it's impossible to have any exchange of ideas with problems like this.

Hey, it's your forum.  I don't have to play or contribute if this is how someone here feels.

I agree, a demonstration now is a mistake

The opposition should bide its time.  At least until the ousting of Bashar maybe even longer, it would be a setback to have demonstrations now.   Most everything is going the opposition's way, and without much political capital expended.  They should ride this wave and consolidate and organize for now. IMHO of course.

FG, you have been doing a lot of heavy lifting here, thanks. 

fg...

right on the money, once again

assad is a gonner.....and I think, the mullahs are next......let's all pray to be in iran next eid norooz :) 

Historical comparisons

RE: Announcement of Green intentions and their date

Against Batista, Castro failed once earlier but imagine if he had failed twice.  I fear that may happen to the Greens in this instance.  Launching the final opposition offensive to take down a regime is--up to a point--like planning for D-Day or Inchon.

Amphibious landings are one-shot deals.  When succcessful, they have powerful effect.  When not, they can lead to military castrophe since one has no place to retreat.  Timing, location, weather and misleading the enemy are critical.  Unless you want to be thrown back into the sea, you'd rather not face the regime's best troops, tanks, etc., waiting on the beach for your arrival.

In one respect this analogy does not fit.   A popular uprising in Iran must be spontaneous, wheras an amphibious landing cannot be.  In respect to an unrising, planning must center on how to take quick advantage when the uprisings start (the enemy should be the only one caught with his pants down) not when to launch them.  Meanwhile the opposition can prepare the ground for success, including taking advantage of growing enemy hardships to strike when he is weakest.  Always the goal is to avoid a Dieppe in favor of a Normandy.

The next round of demonstrations must succeed.  It can't afford to lose.  The trick is to avoid being either overly aggressive (see the Greens in this scheme, Union General Burnside at Fredericksburg, Hooker at Chancellorsville) or overly cautious in which case one fails to seize opportunities when they arrive and before the door closes. See Union George B. McClellan (Lincoln always said Little Mac "had the slows") or  General Clark in the WW II Italy landing.

A HUGE MISTAKE? Greens announce new demonstration

BULLETIN!!!

The opposition Coordination Council of Green Path of Hope has called for a rally on 25 Bahman (14 February).--Enduring America

Regime insiders should stand up and cheer this stupid move.  What a
potential morale crusher for the opposition!  What a potential morale
booster for the regime!  It could add years to the regime's potential lifespan if it fails.  If it fails green leaders deserve villification. Let me count the problems:

1. WHY NOW? So many things are working to undermine confidence within regime insiders and increase anger among everyone else, starting with events on election day and including economic grievances, inflation and currency problems that alienate the regime's previous base of support.  We might even see Assad's downfall sooner than expected.  Note too that the weather also favors the regime at present but would favor the opposition later. Any general knows winter isn't the time to launch a big offensive.

2. TOTAL LACK OF SPONTANEITY. The next demonstrations must start spontaneously and preferable among the working class (more physical and less likely to be cowed) with Greens have pre-existing plans to join in and support.  You'd think the Greens would have learned by now not to send pre-written invitations to the security forces.

3. IGNORING THE WORKING CLASS AGAIN

Simply inviting them won't do and it would deserve laughs. Almost everywhere recent revolutions have succeede the working class has played a leading part.  It is more physical and more prone to long-term resistence.

4. DRIVE AHMADINEJAD & KHAMENEI INTO TEMPORARY RE-ALLIANCE?

This is the best reason of all to wait until sometime after elections which worsen the above divisions.

5. HIGH PROBABILITY OF A LOW TURNOUT

Who benefits from that?  Given all the common sense reasons above, why would anyone except a few fanatics turn out.

Unless the turnout is huge, prolonged and countrywide, the regime may crush it easily.  For all of the reasons given above.  This move strikes me as so disadvangeous you'd almost think it had been suggested by covert regime agents.