Why Khamenei's Iran can never be a great power, either military or economic


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FG
by FG
24-Feb-2012
 

(APOLOGY TO READERS: This analysis took a lot of time but may be hard to read because of spacing problems between paragraphs. Hitting the enter key shows spaces but they disappear when you hit "preview" or submit." Hitting enter more than once does nothing. Next I tried a series of dots at each paragraph break it was only a slight improvment. Finally, I tried repeatedly used the space key but soon found it too tedious. Then I gave up. You'd have to calculate the exact number of spaces needed otherwise the new paragraph would begin halfway accross the page. So here's the analysis, mess or not. Originally I wrote this as a subpost but later decided to enter it as a blog and I copied and pasted here verbatim. I guess you can't do that)

The Islamic Republic of Iran specializes in unachievable dreams except for "being taken seriously." Indeed, the IRI is taken seriously but in a sense more infamous than esteemed. It gets attention for the same reason North Korea, Somalia, Sudan and northwest Pakistan get attention: Outlaw behavior. One can ignore the IRI no more than an adult can ignore an ever crying baby. Alas, rather than breast feed Khamenei and sing lullabies, everyone slams the doors and seals the room as if the Black Plague were inside..........................................

The IRI's central problem is that everything, even the regime's other major goals, must be sacrificed to an overarching one: regime survival and the domestic and foreign policies required to sustain it. Those policies are almost completely incompatible with so many other things the regime would love to have--real popularity at home and substantial military and economic power that would make the IRI a Big Player in a true sense..............................

One can become a major power in an economic sense (South Korea), a military sense (the USSR) or both (the USA, China eventually if it remains stable by making essential changes instead of standing pat a la Khamenei)...............................

Major powers--even less democratic ones--require what the IRI lacks: substantial public support, at least tacitly. Judging by its rhetoric, the regime aspires to be a military power of note while ignoring the fact that it isn't cheap and requires a strong econoic base these days. Merely to acquire nukes won't do at all. Given the IRI's economic problem, isolation and internal discontent. Iran with nukes would look more like North Korea or Pakistan with nukes...............................

THIRTY-THREE YEARS OF "MISSING THE BUS" AS THE WORLD PASSES IRAN BY................

Perhaps the greatest of many scandals Iran has experienced under 33 years its its incredibly bad economic performance despite immense natural wealth and a talented, educated populace....................................

In 1979 Iran had the fastest economic growth rates in the world or close to it. Where were the Turks, South Koreans, Chinese, etc., in 1979? Today some have left Iran in the dust while others, starting from much further behind, threaten to do so. Most had no natural resources. Those that do (China) try not to squander them. Unlike Iran, all sense that diversification and access to the world market is the key to economic prosperity.........................................................

The only thing Mullah Rule has done for Iran is to make the mullahs rich and powerful along with their security force generals who sole purpose now is to serve as enriched body guards for employment against the people........................................

Poor Iran. Another bus is now aiming to pass the oppressed country by. Who is it? Who would have believed it in 1979?................................

See: The new Asian Tiger...............................

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/23/the_new_asian_tiger ..............

.....................RECOMMENDED & RELATED READING: About six hours ago I posted a news item entitled "Is the Iranian Regime rationale?" which I had originally intended to post this item as a subpost. You'll see how they fit together. That article is a great analysis of how and why Iran's regime goals differ from those of a normal state.............................

It does a very good job of explaining two things. First, why pleasing the Iranian people has a relative low priority for the IRI's rulers, and secondly, why foreign policy moves intended to please the mullahs often have the contrary effect........................

http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/blog/2199


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vildemose

Great deconstruction/construction

by vildemose on

Clever synthesizing  job of connecting the dots. Meticulous parsing, which you are usually great at it. Putting the big picture together is not easy. Thanks for this.

According to the United Nations, Iran is ranked the world’s 27th poorest nation with forty percent (40%) of the population living in poverty. UNICEF estimates over 1.5 million Iranian children live in orphanages. In actuality, this number is much higher, but due to lack of international presence in Iran we do not have a verifiable count.

http://www.momsagainstpoverty.org/iran.html

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.