Gulamhusein

“….there is no evidence that Iran is preparing to acquire nuclear weapons. All that exists is a suspicion that Iran so intends, and, because of this suspicion, we are trying to compel Iran to abandon efforts to advance its nuclear program meant for civil and peaceful purposes, specially to meet its energy needs so that its industry can grow. Even though Iran does not violate any international requirement by continuing to advance its nuclear capability. Indeed, we are preparing to go to war with Iran on this!”

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“We the people must rise up and demand that we do not go to war with Iran on this. Unless we do this we will find ourselves in another unnecessary and costly war. And this time it will be ugly.”

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March 15, 2012

The hysteria over Iran’s nuclear capabilities having reached such a stage as to call for immediate bombing of its nuclear facilities – this hysteria is deliberately and insidiously being whipped up by Israel to turn away the world’s gaze from its vicious ethnic cleansing and land grabbing activities in Palestine, especially in the Jerusalem region and to find an excuse for attacking Iran, for which it has been itching ever since Iraq was neutered, leaving Iran the only country in the region that can be expected to stand up to Israel.

The extent of its success can be gauged from the fact that, according to a recent Pew poll, 58% of Americans favor preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons even if it means taking military action.

More important is the success Benjamin Netanyahu scored when he met Obama at the Whitehouse. One would have thought that the most burning question requiring urgent attention in the region, namely restoring peace between Israelis and Palestinians and the creation of a Palestinian state, would have been the central topic. But it was not. There was hardly any mention of the issue! Netanyahu managed to shut it out completely and devote the entire discussion to dealing with Iran!

Obama’s performance at the meeting was pathetic. Not only did he not bring up the issue of Palestine, but, even on Iran, enabled Netanyahu to say, “…Above and beyond that there are two principles you reiterated yesterday that Israel must have the ability always to defend itself, by itself against any threat and that, when it comes to Israel’s security, Israel has a right, a sovereign right, to make its own decisions…. Israel must reserve the right to defend itself…..my supreme responsibility as Prime Minister of Israel is to ensure that Israel remains the master of its fate.”

True Obama could not possibly have denied that. However he could and should have reminded Netanyahu that Israel, in exercising that right, must always remember that Israel, as any other nation, has a duty not to take any action that can result in grave harm to the world as a whole, especially if that action is unwarranted and unnecessary and is being maliciously or mistakenly taken under cover of “defending Israel”, and that if, in spite of being advised against it, Israel goes ahead and takes such action, Israel cannot expect and will not get any support from the US. In fact, if Israel is preparing to take any such action, other countries that will be adversely affected have a right to take any action that may be required to prevent such an action.

By remaining silent at Netanyahu’s enunciation of Israel’s right, Obama missed the opportunity to make the US position forcefully clear to Israel and to Americans.

While Obama did not give Netanyahu the green signal to go ahead with his bombing plan and seemed to back away from it, saying that there was still a window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution, he seems to have succumbed to Israel’s pressure, saying recently that the window had narrowed!

A brief look at relevant facts will show that there is no call for bombing Iran because of its progress on its nuclear energy program.

Iran has repeated again and again that it has no intention of acquiring a nuclear arsenal and that its nuclear program is meant only for civil not military purposes.

The New York Times, no friend of Iran, reported on February 24 that though Iran had accelerated its uranium enrichment program, “American intelligence analysts continue to believe that there is no hard evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb. Recent assessments by American spy agencies are broadly consistent with a 2007 intelligence finding that concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program years earlier, according to current and former American officials. The officials said that assessment was largely reaffirmed in a 2010 National Intelligence Estimate and that it remains the consensus view of America’s 16 intelligence agencies”. (emphasis added)

According to a report by Time’s journalists James Risen and Mark Mazetti,  Director of National Intelligence James Clapper in his January 31 Senate testimony stated explicitly that there was no evidence that Iran had made a decision on making a concerted push to build a weapon.

Other top Obama administration officials, including CIA Director David Petraeus, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey share Clapper's assessment.

Even if it is assumed that Iran was bent on acquiring nuclear weapons, the question arises whether bombing its nuclear facilities is the only way to stop it and if so, is it necessary to take that action at this stage? The answer to the last question hinges on how close is Iran to having a nuclear weapon.

Estimates on this have differed wildly in the past and continue to do so even now.

According to US Secretary of Defense, Iran is a year away from a nuclear bomb. In 1984 Senator Alan Cranston said Iran was seven years away. In 1992 Benjamin Netanyahu, who was then a member of Israeli parliament, said 3 to 5 years. That same year then Israeli Defense Minister (now Israeli President) Shimon Peres said Iran would have nukes by 1999.  In 1995 “senior U.S. and Israeli officials” speculated Iran would have nuclear weapons in five years

Meir Dagan, who recently retired  as head of  Mossad,  Israel’s spy agency, has said that Iran would not be able to produce a nuclear weapon until 2015 and that Israel should not hasten to attack Iran but should do so “only when the sword is upon the neck”  He later added that Israel’s attacking Iran would be a “stupid idea”

President Obama himself, who has access to  intelligence reports, initially stated that ‘’There is a window of opportunity’’  to try and solve the issue through diplomacy, indicating that in his opinion Iran is nowhere close to acquiring a nuclear bomb.

Besides, as late as January 2012, Gill Tudor, spokewoman for the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that "The IAEA can confirm that all nuclear material in the facility remains under the Agency's containment and surveillance".

Early in January of this year Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said: "Are they [Iranians] trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No. But we know that they're trying to develop a nuclear capability. And that's what concerns us."

Iran has agreed to open up for inspection by IAEA, Parchin, the military facility southeast of Tehran where the U.N. nuclear watchdog suspected that  development work relevant to nuclear weapons may have taken place.

Iran offered to return to talks on resolving the dispute over its uranium enriching program and, according to the European Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, the United States, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain had accepted the offer and had voiced backing for efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the long-running row.

So, there is no evidence that Iran is preparing to acquire nuclear weapons. All that exists is a suspicion that Iran so intends, and, because of this suspicion, we are trying to compel Iran to abandon efforts to advance its nuclear program meant for civil and peaceful purposes, specially to meet its energy needs so that its industry can grow. Even though Iran does not violate any international requirement by continuing to advance its nuclear capability. Indeed, we are preparing to go to war with Iran on this!

In view of all the above, clearly not only is there no justification for going to war now with Iran on the question of its nuclear program but there is no justification even for continuing any sanctions on it on that account, much less imposing new “crippling” sanctions.

We the people must rise up and demand that we do not go to war with Iran on this. A

Unless we do this we will find ourselves in another unnecessary and costly war. And this time it will be ugly.”