Think Foreward

captain

yes, i agree. this is not a phenomenon invented or reserved for the iri regime. while broken promises can be observed in practically every democracy, this regime has absolutely no track record of reform.

if the root problem is seen in the constitution (as in lack of power of president over judiciary, police, military, and foreign policy) and the reform candidate promises to be faithful to the constitution, then 'what' is it that will be reformed?

i see ahmadinejad as a spokesperson for the regime. he is not making foreign policy; the house of rahbar is. this election is about choosing a better spokesperson. if ahmadinejad is a pig, then mousavi is a pig with lipstick. that's all, i hope i didn't offend anyone.

Dear Hamsade Ghadimi

You noted[i think that the ‘pawn’ argument still holds, but this phenomenon has
been continuously used by this regime and does not happen just every
four years.]

At the expense of being called supporter of IR[which I categorically am not] let me ask one question if I may.

The pawn theory: isn't it the case in every single election in every corner of the world[with little exceptions of course]. This phenomenon can be seen in almost every single election. Candidates make every promise under the sun, however once they are elected, mostly just resume status quo, which is just ride with the political tide.

What are you thoughts?

-YT

Rosie

Firstly welcome back.

You are absolutely correct as far as rural area, who mostly have little or no education. In addition to this base that Ahmadinejad has, is the strong and devote armed Sepahi, basiji and other armed militia forces such as Quds. 

My thoughts are that in last election, these bases were the ones Ahmadinejad energized, and was helped by large scale boycott of urban dwellers.

Do not take me wrong, IR has very little resemblance to democracy[if any], however in this election due to high profile of the event, and due to tremendous international attention the regime has been getting, I believe that they are going to try their best for the election to go as smooth and as clean as possible. Both camps conservative and reformists are desperate to get back in the international arena and come out of this isolation.

Time will only show how much less miserable Mousavi, if elected, is going to make the lives of citizens.

Regards

-YT

pawns, inc.

i appreciate these civilized forums where people who may disagree on one point (e.g. voting) don’t feel compelled to disagree on every point. i think that the answer to the question “[are] youth being used?” is a bit more complex than a simple yes or no. i find in it elements of game theory: the government is, in fact, using the youth as pawns; the youth is well-informed and knows that they are being used as pawns; the youth uses the election atmosphere as an opportunity to vent out their frustration; the government gains public relations points and reflects a positive image of their ‘democratic’ system. the youth gain value by being able to vent their frustration openly and in groups; this value is offset by the cost of being used.

now how do you resolve the fact that some youth are rooting for the ‘reform’ camp versus the youth rooting for the ‘radical’ camp. i think that the ‘pawn’ argument still holds, but this phenomenon has been continuously used by this regime and does not happen just every four years. this schism between the ‘opposing’ youths may be rooted in their socio-economic backgrounds as one commentator noted. while the rich kids are ‘armed’ with disposable income, the poor kids are ‘armed’ with authority, sometimes in the form of being basijis. “if i can’t have it, at least i’ll make sure that you won’t have it.” i’ve heard this argument from some youth in iran that the government ‘levels’ the playing field and at the same time insures that all youth are not frustrated for the same reason.

the election highlights this underlying tug-of-war between different youth camps. you can see in the videos and pictures of the election frenzy: different youth camps shouting at each other. while mousavi supporters are reveling the fact the youth on their opposing side will be emasculated, the ahmadinejad supporters are hoping that their authority will be validated and continued.

DR. Bakhtiar on Fair Elections (1990)

Bakhtiar on a Future Constitution to be drafted after Regime Change and the conditions for a Free and Fair Elections on the future democratic state of choice :

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNBFTWXz5_Q&feature=related

He also mentions Rafsanjani, and what the Role of the West should be in relation to the regime.

5 august 1989, Hamburg

"Iran Harguez Nakhahad Mord" - Shahpour Bakhtiar

My Opinion Too,

DK

Crisis is Good by Azar Nafisi (could be applied to IRI elections

To Paraphrase Azar Nafisi these elections are NOT about Moussavi, Ahmadinejad, Rezaei or Karroubi ...

Majid - you scared me

Yes NPR called me at work around 2 and wanted me to be on the show at 2:30. Had no idea what to expect; looks like I did OK.

The only advantage of repression has been the creation of this new generation who is politically aware and engaged  and that's a hopeful sign. 

Ayhab,.I.wonder.

Thanks.for.encouraging.me.to.engage.in.the.
discussions.about.the.elections..Please.correct.me.
if.I.am.wrong..Once.again,.excuse.the.spacings..You.
wrote:

--Supporters of Ahmadinejad are different story altogether. They are in fact pawns, and members of Sepahi, Basiji and other [jeereh khor] groups.--

They.are.not.pawns.any.more.than.anyone.else.is.
We.are.all.pawns.in.larger.systems.Not.one.of.us.
is.exempt..They.are.mostly.the.rural.poor.and.
devout.They.vote.their.stomachs,.their.
"language'.and.their.faith.They.vote.their.pride.
Some.of.their.parents.saw.Khomeini's.face.on.the.
moon.but.who.gave.them.Khomeini,.really?.(And.how.
many.people.here.among.those.who.are.VOTING.saw.
Obama's.face.on.the.moon?)

They.are.the.people.who.the.intelligentsia.of.the.
Revolution.did.not.understand.or.speak.their.
language.so.they.had.Khomeini.do.it.for.them.while.
never.bothering.to.probe.what.freedom."under.Islamic.
law".meant.These.people.knew.what.it.meant..They.
are.the.people.the.Shah.did.not.understand.either.
They.still.believe.in.Ahmadinejad.because.they.
believe.he.still.believes.in.them..Because.he.is.
one.of.them..No.matter.what,.he.IS.one.of.them.

Does.Ahmadinejad.lie.to.them.about.the.economy?
The.onus.is.upon.the.urban.base.against.him.to.
prove.him.wrong.or.prove.their.candidate.has.a.
better.plan.and.looks.out.for.their.best.interests
in.a.language.they.can.understand.

These.women.are.proud..They.feel.the.Revolution.
has.benefitted.them.in.many.ways..The.onus.is.
upon.the.urban.base.against.Ahmadinejad.to.
convince.them.in.their.own.language.that.Mrs.
Moussavi.represents.their.cause.if.Moussavi.is.
their.candidate.Whom.would.they.prefer.as.a.role.
model?..I.wonder.Her.or.Mrs.Ahmadinejad?.How.many.of.
the.urban.base.has.asked.them?.I.wonder.

How.many.went.to.Arefeh's.small.town.where.the.
memory.of.the.horror.still.looms.large.to.explain.
in.their.own.language.that.although.it.happened.
under.Khatami,.executions.have.tripled.under.
Ahmadinejad.and.are.usually..by.hanging?.I.wonder.

Please.correct.me.if.I.am.wrong.Talk.to.them.
in.their.language.and.some.of.them.will.give.you.
a.hearing..Respect.thema.and.some.of.them.stop.
fearing.you..Stop.fearing.them.as.pawns'.of.whoever.
and.they.will.stop.fearing.you.even.more.One.on.one.
is.best..Obviously.Moussavi's.speeches.haven't.
reached.them.We.do.it.in.the.US.at.the.critical.time.in.the.campaigns..
Door.to.door.How.many.of.the.urban.base.against.
Ahmadinejad.have.done.it?..I.wonder.\?

The.real.underlying.question.is.not.even.who.they.
are..The.rea.question.is.who.are.we?

Mr. Hosseini

"They are more knowledgeable than their counter-parts elsewhere." 

Coincidentally this is exactly what you told Pat Morrison on NPR within minutes of posting this comment!

And I totally agree.

ps. I'm so glad that P.Morrison pretty much hung up on the caller who instead of discussing the issue at hand started talking about Mr. Parsi's affiliation with MKO.  

FYI/Interesting Analysis on VOA Tasvireh Khabar

Watch Nourizadeh and Sazegarah anaylze the Soft Revolution taking place in Iran:

//www.voanews.com/wm/voa/nenaf/pers/pers1930vb.asx

Sadly

Sadly you are so right, they are going to be let down because the system is corrupt and undemocratic from foundation.

btw, thanks for sharing your thoughts I enjoyed reading them.

Regards

-YT

Agree Capt

Agree 100% that they are more knowledgeable than their counter-parts elsewhere.  Given the 'choices' and the environment, I think they are doing great.  Still I think they will be disappointed like the last time and the time before (Khatami).

Realistically, we are moving ahead, although inch by inch.

BTW: there are many young people among Ahmadinejad supporters. 

being used?

Mr. Hosieni

Aren't you being a bit unfair to the intellect of these youth? Granted they are only going to chose a different evil to make their lives miserable for next 4 years, but it is not like Iranian youth are stupid.

As a matter of fact, most Iranian youth are so charged up with politics and they are so up to date with events that is amazing. I have debated with them many times and I truly admire them for knowing so much in an environment that so many things are so harshly censored.

I would give them lot more credit than just being mere pawns. Most Iranian have so much vested in outcome of this election, and participate with such an enthusiasm and love that is truly astonishing. You can hardly see anything like that in any other country. They deserve lot more than that. May God be in their side.

Supporters of Ahmadinejad are different story altogether. They are in fact pawns, and members of Sepahi, Basiji and other [jeereh khor] groups.

-YT

Rock the Vote

They feel empowered and THAT is great!

Don't be a pawn, ROCK THE VOTE!

Very True

Lets Hope so indeed ...

VOTE IF YOU WISH BUT DON'T BE A PAWN !

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJY8fhGTMU0