Jahanshah Javid

maqshush

i think that jaleho downgraded his prediction that the jomhuri islami will be less islamic to more of a hope:

"Sargourd, I don't have any prediction, however I hope for a gradual transformation of IRI to RI (Republic of Iran)......" 

at least that's according to this person trying to hint of his desire of no regime change.  of course, it's all said under another username. ;)

Scientific or popagandistic?

Looking at the responses to this blog, I noticed Jaleho's repeated demands for scientific approach vs propaganda in analyzing Iran events.  Here's one such assertion: "one looks at data, makes an interpretation of the data of the past, the events of the present, forms a theory, and the validity or worth of the theory is only assessed by its ability to make some CORRECT predictions."  Being one who'd be interested in scientific approaches, I made a cursory search of her past predicitons to see how her analyses have panned out.  Two predictions stand out.

One was her repeated claim that AN's victory in the last election, which she believes to be a true reflection of the will of Iran's population, would lead to more jomhouri (republicanism) than eslami (Islamism) in jomhourie eslami (Islamic Republic).  Here's the last paragraph in her blog "Iranian Democracy and Islamic Revolution" (6/09) at //iranian.com/main/blog/jaleho/iranian-de... :
"Completely opposite to what some 'experts' analyze the present situation in Iran, it is NOT the rise of dictatorship by eradication of 'Jomhouri' from 'jomhouri Islami,' rather it is the NATURAL fading of 'Islamic' from the 'jomhouri Islami!'"

Another was her prediction that post-election US-Iran relations could only get better, or as she puts it in the blog "Iranians WON BIG!!" (6/09) at //iranian.com/main/blog/jaleho/iranians-w... ,
"completely opposite to what some people feared, now US-Iran rapprochement will speed up under re-election of Ahmadinejad! Now that US can not continue with a futile dream of a leader that they could possibly push around, US HAS TO proceed quickly with a new friendly Iran policy."

The first thing to notice about these predicitons is that they don't quite qualify as scientific predicitons due to lack of specificity.  For example, how exactly do you measure improvements in US-Iran relations or the relative weights of jomhuri vs eslami?  And in what time period are these blessed changes supposed to occur?  Despite the vagueness of these predictions, I'd like to know how many readers think that these predicitons have even the remotest resemblance to what is now taking place or the direction towards which things are headed.

But in adopting a scientific posture, there's also the matter of objectivity and the taking into account of competing and plausible explanations of events.  For example, Jaleho takes it for granted that the official results of the election are the correct ones to base conclusions on.  Or that the relative numbers of pro- vs anti-gov't protesters at rallies, such as on Quds or Ashura days, are true reflections of public sympathies in Iran.  Irregularities and lack of independent oversight in the election are not important factors to take into account.  And she ignores the plausible scenario that strong gov't mobilization or violent suppression of competing crowds could significantly distort how such rallies reflect public opinion.  It's as if you were to model planetary motion in the solar system by ignoring the effect of the sun.

So do Jaleho's writings seem closer to a scientific analysis or crass propaganda?  Do her past predictions reassure you of the soundness of her approach?

مبارک باشد

سالگرد اين انقلاب با شکوه اسلامی را به تمام امت شهيد پرور تبريک گفته و از خداوند متعال خواستاريم که تا ابد الدهر سايۀ اين عزيزان را از سر ما کم نکند. در اين سه دهۀ اخير امت ايرانی به کمالات جامع از قبيل آزادی ، استقلال، فرهنگ، علم ،صنعت،رفاه ، مدنيت ، يکپارچگی ، آزادی اديان( علی الخصوص قوم بهايی)و مشارکت بين المللی رسيدند . ما بنوبه خود از تمامی مجريان اين سيرک بزرگ سپاسگزاريم که آبرو حيثيت يک ملتی را به باد دادند و نمونه آن در تمامی فرودگاه های دنيا معلوم است که تا مقعد آدم را جستجو ميکنند..اين جماعت سبز پوش هدفشان براندازی تمام دستاوردهای اين انقلاب اصيل و درجه يک ميباشد. خود قضاوت کنيد.

Few million fraud here and there is not sufficient

to say that the elections were rigged, and that 63% of people didn't vote Dr. AN.. No, what's important is what Keyhan writes in its columns and for Keyhan and all Beyt-e Imam Khamenei (sheytan-o-llah sall-allah va alleh) AN won by 63%. OK? Shoma-ha ki hastid ke miguid na? Jaleho is here to remind that number. Her pay depends on. Deh chera nemifahmid? berid kenar bezarid bad biad, chera hey harf ziadi mizanid inja? Next time Dr. AN will win by 163% and you can't even see that in any other imperialist democracy in the world! Pass chi? Jaleho will be there to confirm that number too. So, find yourself lucky that the number wasn't 99,9% at the beginning.

Keep screaming

you said:

"Are you refering to the blueprints and the designs? Because as far as i remember, shah had big ideas, but many of them never went further than a blueprint."

I just showed how wrong you were with your propaganda.  I showed you that progress went beyond blueprints during Shah's time and you're screaming your head off with gibberish and personal insults.  You were wrong.  Just admit it and move on...or you can keep on screaming.  Byeee... 

Get your head checked

Are you bragging about an incomplete nuclear reactor that was purchased during shah era?  Is that it? So, you are saying an incomplete nuclear reactor is reason enough to believe shah was better than IR ? How long did shah rule over Iran? During his era, was Iran under sanctions? Was Iran in a war for 8 years?

The truth is that shah with all the support that he had under very favourable circumstances and the many years that he ruled over Iran , did very little for Iran and Iranians. You are fooling yourself if you think otherwise.

Boshehr Nuclear reactor completion is delayed due to political reasons and you should know this better. But you fail to acknowledge the other part of this industry which is completely under Iranian scientists control and it is home grown. Enrichment technology which benefits other sectors like medicine and military aside from providing fuel for our power plant is solely one of IR accomplishment which every Iranian in Iran supports it.

Please stop looking down on Iran and Iranians for the last 30 years. i know you love driving that german car , wearing that Italian suit and buying that japanese TV. If you dare to compare Iran with south korea, you should know that almost all south korean will buy Hyuandai or Kia for their rides, wear korean made clothes and buy Samsung or LG for their electronics. This is how they support their industry. Not like a loser like you who sits on the side and says " Lengesh kon".

Very disappointed at your blog, JJ

22 Bahman is NOT the anniversay of the Islamic revolution in spite of their propaganda. For those of us who were there when it happened, even as teenagers, it will always be the anniversary of brining down a dictatorship. And it is in that spirit that this present dictatorship also should be challenged (with its own means) and brought down.  I don't expect anyting else from the usual lot on this site (and I'm not even going into the nature of other slogans you mentioned) but expected a little more thoughtfullness from you.

You admitted it. I used the evidence that showed that range.

few million fraud here and there

Everything is sacred.

Anonymouse, you said,

"

I am sure someone very reliable leaked that info into your ears personally, no?

Ne Genius

I am refrerring to the actual work that was done.  In 1979 when the Germans withdrew from the project after the victory of the great Islamic Revolution, one reactor was 50% complete and the other was 85% complete, and that's in the span of 4 years after work had started on it, as opposed to the 30 years under your great Islamic Republic.   Here, educate yourself for once:

 The construction of the plant started in 1975 when the German Kraftwerk Union AG, a joint venture of Siemens AG and AEG Telefunken, signed a contract worth US$4–6 billion to build the pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant. Construction of the two 1,196 MWe nuclear generating units, identical with the two reactors from the German Biblis Nuclear Power Plant, was subcontracted to ThyssenKrupp AG, and was to have been completed in 1981.[2]

Kraftwerk Union was eager to work with the Iranian government because, as spokesman Joachim Hospe said in 1976, "To fully exploit our nuclear power plant capacity, we have to land at least three contracts a year for delivery abroad. The market here is about saturated, and the United States has cornered most of the rest of Europe, so we have to concentrate on the third world."

Kraftwerk Union fully withdrew from the Bushehr nuclear project in July 1979, after work stopped in January 1979, with one reactor 50% complete, and the other reactor 85% complete. They said they based their action on Iran's non-payment of $450 million in overdue payments. The company had received $2.5 billion of the total contract. Their cancellation came after certainty that the Iranian government would unilaterally terminate the contract themselves, following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which paralyzed Iran's economy and led to a crisis in Iran's relations with the West.[2]

And here's the link for that quote:

 //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushehr_Nuclear_Power_Plant

What a load of crap.

How convenient is this for you to downplay everything that has happened in iran after the war.

You claim that most of these accomplishments were started during the shah era. Are you refering to the blueprints and the designs? Because as far as i remember, shah had big ideas, but many of them never went further than a blueprint. Its common knowledge that over 90 percent of our villages didn't have access to clean water and electricity.

Even the military that you ridicule during IR was completely imported and bought from US during shah era. Our own military cadre couldn't even operate many sophisticated american weapons and radar systems and they were operated by american personnels in Iran.

Atleast in Iran we are starting to build many things on our own. I know they are not as good as western models yet, but we are definitely in the right direction in becoming selfsufficient in our military. Iran currently sells and export about a billion dollar in weapons to other countries in Africa and south america.

I am not Jaleho and i permit JJ to confirm this.

IRI Accomplishments

My comment from another thread:

 They do have "Shahab" missiles....sorry, I meant to say 1960's era North Korean Nodongs....

And they have also "built" new Saegheh fighter plane…sorry, I meant to say a 1960’s American made F-5 with an extra stabilizer fin, which took the IRI 30 years to figure out how to build…It also has a nice paint job….sorry, I meant to say that even the paint job was stolen from American Blue Angels. 

But they sent a  Safir Rocket into space…sorry, I meant to say another North Korean Nodong aimlessly shot into the air…

But they publish a lot of scientific articles…sorry, I meant to say that the plagiarize a lot of scientific articles…

And the metro system: poor Shah started it back in the 1970's.  It took the IRI monkeys 30 years just to finish one route. 

And their "nuclear technology": 30 years after Shah had started building the Bushehr plant, and with billions of dollars given to the Russian mob, and bribing every Tom, Dick and Harry Russian mafioso, it is still not operational. That plant should be designated by the United Nations a world symbol of incompetence and stupidity.  Pakistan went from zero to a nuclear bomb in less than ten years.  These morons can't put together a 1970's style powe plant if their useless lives depended on it.     

By the way everyone, just so that you know: 

No Fear is Jaleho. 

"Few million" vote fraud = 10 - 15M.Ahmadi Civil Engr =no codes!

Everything is sacred.

Oh yeah, the accomplishments of the Islamic regime

If we had appointed a monkey 30 years ago to run Iran, there'd have been probably the same "accomplishments" as you see today......

The Islamic goon supporters on this site are not only delusional, they also need to be reminded - time and again - that they're supporting a murderous regime killing their own people.

That's true no matter how you slice it.

____________________

IRAN, BEFORE ISLAM 

____________________

No Fear

You have a very good point, I am ignorant, but then again, it is quite obvious a lot of things that you are proud of are not anything that can calm your anger, simply because you can't prove them.

My ignorance about my country should not fuel such an anger in you. If your objective is to inform, you need to calm down and reason with someone whom might know less than you do (which I certainly doubt). 

Most of the slogans that the IRI have fed to its peddlers are quite fictitious.  The war that was imposed on Iran was because of the policies that those whom you defend created. Iran could have prevented the war if the zealots with so much anger would have not chanted death to this and death to that. The unlished anger, like the one I detect in you, have damaged a lot in our land, get hold of your emotions. Bullying doesn't get people very far.

As for nano technology and all other rumors, don't hold your breath, none are true and the grand failure of the Islamic Regime must be blamed on the Islamic Regime itself. Don't blame Iranians abroad and other countries such as Saudi Arabia. Khomeini's Revolution was a failure from day 1.

The only "accomplishment" for the Islamic Regime is that it is self-sufficient in production of crack and shisheh, it no longer needs to import those two items.

One thing I certainly agree with Mannya is that Iran has much better behaved people than at the time of the Shah. Yes, and it is much safer to walk on the streets today than in 1960's. People are cultured, but Government is corrupt.

Dear Jeesh,

I suggest you read Mannya2001 post again before you start downplaying some of the accomplishment that has happened in Iran.

The reason that you are so ignorant to these achievements is because;

1- You ( living aboard ) , are not under crippling sanctions for almost 30 years. You compare Iran and south Korea so unjustly. South Korea had international support while Iran doesn't.

2- You have nothing to show for your side of the arguement , yet you assume under different circumstances, things would be better. Is that right? wow.. genius!  Talk is cheap, isn't it?

3- Mannya has a very valid point in regards to War and the aftermath and the effects on our country. Yet you ignore the 8 year war and claim Iran achievements are insignificant compare to the rest of the world. Oh ... i didn't know the rest of the world had their infrastructures bombed constantly for 8 years and miraculously recovered instantly after the war!

4- While you summarize and downplay the recent developments as a mere few building and a metro system, you fail to acknowledge other developments in nano technology, medicine, military and nuclear technology in Iran. Instead of downplaying these achievements and sucking on your western thumbs , what have you done for Iran? 

I should have ignored your post. You are a nagger. You grew up with your mommy feeding you with a silver spoon and now you expect your country to do the same. Your arguement is that Iran is rich and has oil money , therefore, we should subsidize the heck out of everything so you can live comfortably even after the war and during international sanctions. Well sunshine, find some other country to be your bitch and stay on welfare. leave Iran alone.

"Mannya" and "No Fear"

It's good that you are proud of Iran, nothing wrong with that. However, the infrastrutures you are referring to are quite insignificant, if you set aside your national pride. Although there is nothing wrong with complementing any progress in Iran of last few decades, but to mention a meager metro that simply connects a few addresses in Tehran, or roads, that are the simplest thing to build for a nation that has so much tar and cement at its disposal or those ugly buildings in Tehran are nothing to be proud of.  Take a look at the rest of the world and see what they have achieved without having the national wealth that we allowed to be plundered in our land.

One way to measure progress is perhaps tangible cultural and industrial accomplishments. While countries like South Korea became so industrially advanced, yet, a rich country like Iran started a downward spiral into the vortex of martyrdom and fatalism and in between we built a few buildings, and lots of claims of a vague military might, that is not progress.

Our greatest progress if you ask me has been the result of Iranians' hegemony in their poverty, and this chronic poverty along with their thirst for freedom, has created a nation ready and united to take an action. What that action will result, we don't know yet, but when you are down in the bottom, the only way you can go is up. I think that is the progress we have achieved.

DK: I believe Manny2001

DK: I believe Manny2001 truly believes that the IRI has accomplished a great deal without ever bothering to investigate the real truth.

 I believe many loyal constituents of the regime are in the same mind as Manny2001.

This can be only a result of years cultic propaganda garbage consumption, ideological indoctrinations,  

and pure naivite and laziness that can produce such absurd, fallacious, illogical, half truth, revisionary and distorted sense of reality and comment.

Sadly,there are hundreds of Manny2001,

Cyrus Kadivar, good points

This is true. No one can deny that the Shah is responsible for building the infrastructure in Iran.  However, I'm sure you remember from perhaps following many Saddam movies, his son Uday would go around and boast that Iraq was nothing and we (meaning the Tikriti family) built Iraq.  He forgot that the country was built from oil revenues which is the property of Iraqis.  Back to our discussion...

Regarding women's movement and education......whether you/I like it or not, the country was and is for a good portion Mazhabi.

I challenge you to start calling people in Iran randomly (you can use Skype for free calls BTW) ask them one question: do you/did you feel safer sending your daughters to education under Shah's time or under today's government?  Just ask them

Regarding villages and towns: let me know of only one village that had access to clean water and phone system.

Other points in no particular order:

Do you suggest that the War with Iraq should not have been fought?  Should Iran have accepted ceasefire when Saddam first offered it?  Do you suggest that in the future if the UAE with British/US backing makes a physical claim to Abu Musa and other islands that Iran sits idly and protests to Ban Kee Moon?

War happened.  It wasn't Iran's fault.  Saddam proved he was ready for some action at the "best opportunity"  He showed who he was by invading Kuwait later on. 

The war had an enormous cost.  Perhaps one of the best lessons was it showed to this government and future governments that war comes with a price.  Sometimes governments and citiznes don't understand the true meaning of war until they experience it.  Ask Japanese about lessons learned from Nagasaki and Hiroshima

War had costs including economic costs that have cost the nation dearly.  The reconstruction effort was managed through foreign loans at a time when oil prices were rock bottom.  So the economic recovery also took a while.

Where does that leave us? Has there been mis-managment of funds? Heck yes. Has there been lost opportunities like gas exploration ..etc? Plenty...  Why?

Because the Iranian government following the war had two choices to make.  One was to focus on nation and economic recovery or 2. expansion of ideology and influence.

The events during Iraq/Iran war and the bitter experience of worldwide actions and saying by Henry Kissinger that the war isn't bad "they're killing one another" made Iranian officials lean towards expansion of influence to counter that of US in the region.

Has their bet paid off? To some extent yes.  They removed Saddam and Taliban and brought to power their allies in Afghanistan and especially oil rich Iraq.

My question to you Mr Kadivar as well as all other anti IRI s is this?

Do you really think that the Iranian society is ready for free elections and democracy?  2. Don't you think that free elections in that democracy will be taken advantage and won by Islamic parties as happened in Turkey, Gaza, Algeria...etc

Algeria and Turkey were very secular and Western leaning- yet Islamic groups won the elections.  Don't assume that people will turn away from Islamic groups.  They are usually very well organized.

Finally, my question is this? Do you think that a free and democratic and internationally freindly Iran will be in a position to "CAPTURE " the heart of the West & US??  So long as Saudi Arabia has more oil and more capacity to produce oil (8 mil/day with capacity up to 12mil/day) Saudi Arabia will be the dear and close ally to the West.  A Strong Iran would always be confronted by Saudi Arabia and ISrael.  Both SA & Israel have a longer and stronger record as US & West allies.  Even prior to Iraq war, Bush made the Saudis privy to classified info that it did not share with even Germany!

A free and democratic Iran/ a free and cons monarchist Iran will never take the place of Saudi Arabia.  SA is too rich and too influencial.  It will always resist Iran's influence in the region. It will always keep Iran from getting close to the West by virtue of the OIL card. 

What this means is this:  With SA influecning US and West decision making, Iran will always be under pressure.  If your constitutional monarchy or your free and democratic Iran wanted to keep Islamic groups away from Parliament- there will be US/West pressure. If you arrested one Mullah- US/Britain will make too much noise while they will stay quiet regarding the human rights in SA.

Mr Kadivar, you are not in Iran to think like an Iranian citizen who is worried most about his daily bread.  You can see the Big picture and also take into consideration the foreign policy - which is often overlooked by your average Joe in Iran.  

Todays Foreign Policy dictates that Saudi Arabia does not want Iran to rise and will use its close bond with the US/West/Britain to make sure that Iran under whichever system remains under pressure and away from its aspirations.

Ahmadinejad has done very well in constructions.

Just want to add a interesting fact that i learnt recently.

A new modern technology that has been transfered to Iran recently and has greatly influenced other sectors such as road developement , city developement, manufactures , nuclear facilities and the metro system is the modern way of tunneling.

Ahmadinejad is a civil engineer and i recently found out that many years ago he was one of the founding members of Iran's tunneling association. After founding the association, he was also involved in organizing exihibitions and events every year in Iran for foreign firms to come and display their new machinaries and the new TBMs ( tunnel boring machine (sp?)). This technology is now extensively used all over Iran in different sectors. While TBMs are carving out Tehran's metro system, modern ways of building tunnels ( a lot faster than before ) are being implemented all over Iran and deep in our mountains. This has even had military applications in terms of " passive defense" doctorine.

mannya2001 Since you seem so informed may I ask you ;0)

And who built the infrastructures in the first place ? You know the universties, Schools, ( including allowing Women to sign in  etc ) ...

The Iranian population doubled in 30 years compared to 1979. It seems to me natural that the number of students in engineering schools, medical schools etc (whose teachers were trained by the likes of my own father prior to the revolution ) has therefore doubled in a generation.

That is not an accomplishment but simply a natural consenquence.

Without the Revolution and a Bloody 8 year War, I suppose the young kids your regime sent to heaven with a plastic key around their neck could have increased the numbers of graduate students than the hospital beds or cemetaries ...

Now if You guys had built all this from the Rubble like Reza Shah in the mid 1920's I would applaude with both hands and legs ye. But I am afraid that is not the case except in your wet dreams ... 

What are you boasting about is truly the funniest claim I have heard in years ...

Oh I suppose Women Rights have progressed since 1979 too.

Keep Them Coming You are Hilarious !

Good Night,

DK

i forgot: i will be celebrating with maestro Mr. Ramin Dehdashti

Yes, i don't personally know him.  I will be going along with my cousin to his party.  I know about his works though.  Hopefully, I can get a "gift" from his collection.

If you don't know Mr Ramin Dehdashti, take a look at his fantastic photography.

You can check his celebration of Iranian post revolutionary works at this link, enjoy:

www.360cities.net/profile/ramin-dehdashti

PS.  His work is not good enough to be put on IC.  I get a feeling that this posting will get censored because his work is not up to IC standards

...

هیچ مطلب آموزنده در اینجا نیست !دائم تکرار مکررات ! به کنار این باید مورد ضربات نوکر مابانه اسلامیون ماساچوست نشینها هم قرار گیریم !

i will celebrate too

32 years and going strong! Cheers y'all!  Drinks on the house!

32 years of achievements which include:

building high rises,

water and telephone services to towns and villages,

national social security / life insurance/ retirement benefits

best doctors and engineers in Middle East thanks to progressive and challenging universities

car insurance/ samand car manufacturing and exportation

female liberation and freedom: over 60 % of university admissions

plus.......

cheers!

JJ, you surprised me!

JJ, if you care, watch this clip from Zahedi, it is very much related to toppling of Shah, and also related to your last comment:

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JPMLz4-x2M&feature...

...

On That Day I Too Will Celebrate The Revolution ;0)

But Beatles Style :

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUs5yuWp6Ro&translated=1

Great Blog JJ ;0)

Keen pattern observation JJ

Jeesh daram, I completely agree!

In fact, I think that the Green Leadership betrayed the people precisely because the country is quite ripe for the type of corrections to the constitution that you are suggesting. And even more so, it is ripe for a massive and drastic changes for women's right as seen by women who to a large degree spearheaded the protests bravely.

That does not mean that I agree that Ahmadinejad was not elected over Mousavi. No, but I think when such a tremendous number of people came out to vote, when a limited democracy allowed for the first time a monumental open presidential debate....then the opposition could have acted like any graceful loser (it lost worse than McCain or Gore!), yet it had a 13 million strong following which could have put the demand of students, women and intelligentsia that opposed the fundamentalists instead of insisting on personal agenda of "I WON" .... even worse, iciting violence or even civil strife by putting 24 million against 13 million. Both an amazingly huge number. There is nothing to be gained by denying that fact, even if there has been few million fraud here and there!

Jaleho

Thanks for the explanation, now I am clear. If I could make a statement instead of prediction it would be something like this:

If, we do not change our Constitution to the extent that it limits the executive power and instead increases the legislative power, and removes the individuality of the leader as being a representative or even a follower of any imam and be very expressive about the rights of people to oppose a decision by any branch of the government in form of election, then we have not achieved much. 

No higher offices in Iranian government should be an "appointed" position, and all offices to be filled by "election" only and in other cases through the legislative power and not executive, such as armed forces and judges. Electoral College type of system like that of USA is also flawed, because it overpowers the vote of the majority.

We shall also reserve the rights of oppositions to file against their government in absentia. This will be the first of its kind, given sovereignty to a nation that has been dispersed all of over the world by forces of a dictatorship. The right to take a system to international courts, to be recognized by our constitution and as part of our human rights.

To elaborate,  I mean just like we see how US government is plundering our assets for victims of this flight and that flight, why not we take over those assets as the rightful citizens of our country and use those assets to better the situations for our own people.

خامنه ای بر سر دوراهی انتخاب

This is an interesting article about what might be happening inside IRI.  It says Khamenei has two options posed to him by two different groups.  One group urges him to order a brutal crackdown on protesters and the green movement leaders in order to restore peace and order.  Another is telling him to dismiss Ahmadinejad and announce clemency on the prisoners in order to appear as the "benevolent father" of the nation, saving the day.

//sohrabestann.blogspot.com/2010/01/blog-post...