Jahanshah Rashidian
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Oil Sanctions on the IRI
10-Nov-2007
Some analyses show that oil, instead of military attack or sanctions on the basic needs of people, would be an effective weapon both for the West and Iranian people to confront the plague of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran holds 11% of the world’s oil reserves. Government revenue of oil is 70%. A great proportion of this national revenue is not invested to improve the cause of people, but is mainly set aside to finance the repressive organs and internal security services of the Mullahs’ regime.
Oil, in the hands of Mullahs, fuels corruption and repression rather than boosts development for people. In short, oil income does not play an important role to improve national economy; in fact, both rate of inflation and unemployment increases while line of poverty sinks.
The IRI is precarious, unpopular mullahs hold onto power by all means of repression. If the oil revenue were suddenly to drop, the repressive regime would lose its steady income and would have serious problems to invest its repressive machine to repress domestic population and finance international terrorism.
Mullahs do not care about the extraction and abuse of Iranian oil wealth and hike the production to fulfil their agenda — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to which Iran belongs, agreed to hike output by 500,000 barrels per day.
Mullahs know the risk of an international oil sanctions; they try to abuse the relatively expensive oil price, to export as much as they can.
They are buying oil tankers from South Korea to increase their transport fleet and consequently oil transportation capacity to 11 million tons by 2010 which would put it at fourth position in the world-–the IRI will also increase its gas production over 80 million tons of liquefied gas par annul, according to National Iranian tanker Co (NITC).
We know that interconnected global economies vitally depend on oil. The industrialised world, especially the US, is the main consumers of fuel and despite of their deep economical interconnections, the industrial countries are not always in harmony. China, Russia, and the EU because of their intensive trade with Iran avoid harsh sanctions on the IRI. They all have remained cooperative with Iran after the Iranian revolution.
The EU’s share of Iran’s total imports increased to 45%. EU trade with Iran has even expanded since Iran’s secret nuclear programme was exposed. The EU imports 40% Iran’s oil—the rest goes to Japan, China and other Asian countries.
Under such economic considerations, IRI’s sponsored terrorism and nuclear programme have been ignored a long time by the EU while partly helped by Russia.
European firms which supplied Saddam’s machine war, especially chemical weapons which were used against both Iranian troops and civilian Iraqi Kurds, went into trade with both countries after the war to rebuild the damaged infrastructures. Because of IRI’s nuclear ambitions, the U.N. Security Council has previously passed two sanctions resolutions against Iran for failing to halt uranium enrichment.
The West and IRI’s friends, China and Russia, once offered a package of civil nuclear and, economic incentives if the Mullahs suspend the enrichment, but the regime stubbornly continues its atom ambition and very likely plans to build the bomb for its military ambitions.
Now, we stand before new UN and separate EU and US sanctions against the IRI. This time, the sanctions seem more serious. The EU seems to gradually approach US policy vis-à-vis sanctions on Iran. It is likely that new sanctions will be more effective and from this point of view oil seems to play a role in the new regime sanctions.
Although Iran is the world’s fourth-largest crude oil exporter, it lacks refining capacity to meet all domestic demand for gasoline. Rationing was recently introduced in an effort to curb consumption and cut the rising cost of importing fuel, but the backward Mullahs are not to refine oil.
In the light of international oil sanctions on Iranian, India has already shown ready to join the West. India imports Iranian crude oil and after refining it exports it to Iran. By avoiding the trade, India can play a curtail factor to paralyse Mullahs’ regime.
According to Iran’s Oil Ministry, the country needs to import up to 15 million litres of gasoline a day for domestic consume. Before rationing was imposed, the domestic consume was estimated 75 million litres a day of gasoline, of which about 36 million was imported. In the case of only gasoline sanctions, Iran’s consummation can be hardly affected.
Oil sanction, instead of military or economic sanctions, can be a new weapon in the favour of both inner victims of the tyranny and the West to confront the IRI. As such, oil will remains more intact source for a free Iran, while, as regimes sanctions, can now render the IRI more vulnerable.
The lack of oil as a guarantee of power to finance Mullahs' repressive organs would favour to create more occasions for Iranian people to challenge the plague of the ,weak, IRI, many Iranians believe.
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Agha nafasetan az jaye garm miayad.
by Lavash (not verified) on Sun Nov 11, 2007 05:04 PM PSTAny sanction by using OIL as a measure would have catastrophic affects on world economy and in particular Iranian nation. Many others said the same BS. So think a little more before expressing your opinion. BTW, if that would have been a logical and intelligent solution long ago would have been implemented. Boro jaanam een noskheha ro vase ye maraze digeh bepich.
drood bar jomhuri Islami!!!! - You will be lashed soon....
by GN (not verified) on Sun Nov 11, 2007 03:22 PM PST"drood bar jomhuri Islami!!!!" - You will be lashed soon for using Iranian word "drood".
For A victim
by Mehdi on Sun Nov 11, 2007 03:09 PM PSTMaybe you should take a look at what a man with 40 years of running the Israel spy agency is now saying here. Is he also an agent of IRI now? Get real. Just because someone feels that positive dialogue and peaceful solutions are more effective in the long run does not make him an agent of IRI.
You are sayin things haven't changed in Iran? When I left nobody could go back to Iran and be safe. Right now, a huge percentage of Iranians who are in many countries as political refugees are freelying travelling to Iran. Some jewish Iranians freely travel to both Israel and Iran. I call this less suppression. Iranian money is at least 20 times more valuable than 28 years ago. An Iranian lawyer can receive Nobel peace prize, which no matter what you think about it, was impossible 25 years ago. Iranian film makers are making a name for themselves which was impossible 25 years ago. I am very aware that Iran is not as democratic as the US - and it is true that is the reason why I am here. But that doesn't mean that Iran has not improved. Saying that Iran is not improving is the lie.
I understand that some of us have become locked into a hatred and animosity against mullahs. We have burned bridges behind us that cannot probably be built again - at least not easily. But we should try to be decent and not use that as a reason to ask for the destruction of the whole country in the hopes that maybe when everybody is dead someone will acknowledge that we were right! That's obsession and insanity. And that's what I see people engaged in when they call for using of force to "improve conditions in Iran."
I think we have to be strong enough that if the mullah's regime maybe killed a loved one of ours, we would not then go mad and want their anhilation at any price, including the destruction of the whole country. The simple truth is we use force when we fail with our wisdom. The rest is just excuses and justifications. Force may satisfy our lust for violence and destruction or revenge but is never a best solution. When I look around I see that those who don't understand what is going on, become impatient and want force - simple as that. Otherwise, at this time there is no real reason for such a free use of force.
drood bar jomhuri Islami!!!!
by Anonymous20390193102 (not verified) on Sun Nov 11, 2007 07:44 AM PSTdrood bar jomhuri Islami!!!!
JR must be heard
by Noori (not verified) on Sun Nov 11, 2007 05:56 AM PSTThe isea of oil as a mean of struggle against the tyranny must be regarded as effective. Without oil the regime collapses, the strike of national oil compagny was a main factor of Shah's collapse.
What is more important?,
by A non-Muslim (not verified) on Sun Nov 11, 2007 02:40 AM PSTWhat is more important?, Sales of oil for arms in the hands of Basijis, Pasdars, or Hezbollahs in Lebanon to saveguard savage Islam or freedom of Iran?
Rashidian limp syndrom
by Gole Sangam (not verified) on Sun Nov 11, 2007 01:09 AM PSTLess than Zero.
Mehdi or "Al-mehdi"
by A victim (not verified) on Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:25 AM PSTThis character, Mehdi, meiti... or whatever his real name is, is a wolf in Sheep's clothe. He is a real devotee of Mullahs, even if he apparently allies with "reformist" Khatami-likes. All his comments are copied from "moderate" factions of the regime who are also traitors and criminals and only want to save the Islamic system in any price.
This a big lie to say " Suppression in Iran is much less than when I left Iran and the situation has been improving slowly". Even his master minds in Iran do not believe it. If so, he and his likes do not go back to this Islamic paradise under the hardliners.
No, he is here, on this open site, in some IRI's propagandist networks of criminal Mullahs under different names and even some fake critics to serve the IRI.
So, brother al-Mehedi, let's say in the name of milions of victims of your Islamic regime, "Khar khodeti"!
Obsession With Mullahs
by Mehdi on Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:47 PM PSTI think we put too much attention on mullahs - heck we're obsessed with them. We need to look beyond that. Mullahs are not a very important factor. Personally, I think if money pours into Iran they way it is happening right now, in a few years Iran will have all kinds of industry, a real Internet system, and lots of students internally and abroad will become educated and that by itself will change Iran - nobody can stop it. Even a mullah's child, being educated could not be as fundamentalist as his father. I think obsession with mullahs and only looking in front of our noses has caused us to not be able to see the future and plan properly.
Suppression in Iran is much less than when I left Iran and the situation has been improving slowly. I think every time our country starts to recover, for some reason, we jump up and want to destroy it (about every 25-30 years). We need to get over our obsessions and maybe hatred for mullahs and look at facts and be logical. Sanctions against Iran will only make things worse for all of Iran and Iranians anywhere. Right now, the government of mullahs is not beyond approach if the US or anybody else truly wanted to improve conditions in Iran or even the whole area. But when our intentions are not pure, we end up coming up with the idea of using force.
Mr. Rashidian: A Permanent MKO Member
by Amoo (not verified) on Sat Nov 10, 2007 06:58 PM PSTDear friends, as I said before, this guy is not worth a reply. He is a life-long member MKO (Mohahedin Khalgh Organization). Mr. Rashidian and his brothers stop at nothing to hurt Iran and Iranian. Mullas are angels compared to Mr. Rashidian and his brother Mojaheds. Please do not forget that they even collaborated with the Mother of All Killers: Saddam Hussein. Mr. Rashidian and his brothers can be considered as super-traitors.
nothings going happen with Iran
by mullahs (not verified) on Sat Nov 10, 2007 05:23 PM PSTis not going hurt Iranian is going hurt us because we are lazy people we had war and see more bad days before
Hey Dariushabadi...!
by Anonymous^ (not verified) on Sat Nov 10, 2007 01:46 PM PSTHow was the IRGCs AL Qoods traing refresher you just took? Did you take the blow-yourself-up-in-three-easy-steps refresher course too?
$200 a barrel for oil?
by dariushabadi on Sat Nov 10, 2007 01:30 PM PSTYou put sanctions on IRan's oil, the whole world economy would go into recession and then depression. Can the world economies sustain oil at $200 - $300 a barrel for 3 - 4 years before it even has an effect in Iran.
Can you afford driving you car at $11 a GALLON for 3 years because of your desire to change Iran's regime?
I highly doubt any American would agree to that for your selfish interest to hurt the Iranian people to overthrow the Iranian government. (yes, lets not pretend the iranian people wouldn't suffer in oil sanctions like the iraqi people)
Oil Sanctions
by N (not verified) on Sat Nov 10, 2007 12:40 PM PSTSir, what you are proposing is no less than economical terrorism against the Iranian people.
If iran's infrastructure is
by hoshmand (not verified) on Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:40 AM PSTIf iran's infrastructure is destroyed, then the door opens for afghans and taliban to go to Iraq. it will be a mess, and a bigger problem for everyone.
destoying a country is wrong even if you do not like mullas.
Saddam caused 1000 billion damage and now the generations have to pay to rebuild . who will rebuild?
who will bring back back to life people.
If this is from Christianity then I am sure Jesus will not bliss those hypocrites.
beleive me they are hypocrites just like some jews and some muslims who are hypocrites some christians are the same. they love money and oil.
Bravo prodi. He is a good man. I think Sarkosy needs viagra and may be that did not help so he has lost his wife to a young frnch man. so now he is angry at the world and he wants to show he is a man.
mr sarkosy see a urologist so you will not want to prove anything outside your bed.
mr hajiagha can now do cartoons on sarkosy.
i am sure it will be funny.
Dr. want can i do,..... did you try this? yes but it did not work. but are you sure you are not semigay?
Mr. Maleknasri
by JR (not verified) on Sat Nov 10, 2007 09:52 AM PSTThanks that you spent time reading my piece.
Never mind about what Prodi said. Keep in mind your last sentence "NUKARE BI JIRE O MAVAJEB?":
It neanse and righteously implies the Tudeh Party and its cultural relics in Iran. They were to be the lakays of the Big Brothers in Kremlin and helped the IRI to repress political activists of the first decades after the Revolution.
Prodi and many leftists have illusions about the IRI, at least you must know it if you do not belong to IRI's different stooges
Regards
JR
OIl snactins won't work. The only solution is massive
by Anonymous^2 (not verified) on Sat Nov 10, 2007 09:21 AM PSTbombardment of the mullahs, IRGCs, basiji's, their supporters, and their infrastructure.
oil sanctions.................against IRI??
by Faribors Maleknasri M.D. (not verified) on Sat Nov 10, 2007 09:17 AM PSTProdi: Nuclear power, Iran's right
Wed, 07 Nov 2007 03:41:14
Italy's Premier, Romano Prodi
Italy's premier says Iran has every right to develop a peaceful nuclear program and the world has the right to verify its peacefulness.
Italian Prime Minister, Romano Prodi, has voiced his objection to any military action against Iran over its peaceful nuclear programs.
He has warned that such an attack could destabilize the entire Middle East region, the AP reported.
In a meeting with the visiting Saudi King Abdullah in Rome on Tuesday, the Italian premier said that "any military attack on Iran would open new destabilizing scenarios in the whole region.''
Italy is one of this year's non-permanent members of the UN Security Council and traditionally has had good relations with Tehran.
Previously, Prodi had criticized the US, France, and Britain for their attempts to impose tougher sanctions on Iran.
He had said that the recent agreements between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have opened a window of opportunity that must be explored before taking tougher measures.
P.s.: what means NUKARE BI JIRE O MAVAJEB?