Sohrab_Ferdows

What other alternative do we have?

IR is a regime that has destroyed Iranian soul, culture, pride, economy and its leaders say openly that they want to prepare the country for end times and coming of Mehdi and loads more rubbish.

There is hardly any opposition that can stand to regime and we often hear and read everywhere specially in iranian.com that the regime should be left alone and everything will be fixed one day! Well, I can tell you that nothing will be fixed till iranians get their act together and organize themselves and put up some fight against the regime. We need to understand that from nothing comes nothing!

"Iranian system may survive well beyond its useful life"?!?!

Islamic Republic of Hell NEVER had a useful life. It was a still birth, Dead On Arrival child of the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The moment the movement against Monarchy turned into a Theocracy it lost all uses for Iranian people.We've been dealing with a dead child for 32 years!

Indeed, war may prove to be IR last hope for survival, though IR is very aware of the daily murders in Syria and how it hasn't stop the protests in  there.At the same time the opposition in Syria doesn't seem to be able to unify. A stand still of sorts.The same analogy may be applied to Iran, IR hasn't been able to eradicate all the social movements in Iran, but these movements haven't been able to unify either. Needless to say any minor break or opening fo the political scene in Iran could rapidly change all the current configurations.

There has been many prediction of an extreme scarcity, shortages and even maybe a  famine in the next six coming months. Such internal developments might prove to be much more consequential, as they ususally are.

And thank you M. Ferdows for a thoughtful article.

Where is Iran headed...

The situation in Iran today seems to have turned the position for an arm conflict upside down.  While for the past decade it was the Western powers that were threatening Iran with a war, today it is Iranian system that has advantage in having a war. View it from survival tactics and it may make more sense.

Having energy routes open is one of the most important objective of powers East and West. Decreasing Iranian power with chocking its funds may do just that. If Iran continues selling its oil with less demand, Iranians will gain less income with selling more oil. In other words, the price of Iranian oil will decrease while there would be no energy disruption to the world demand. Controlling the Islamic Republic also becomes easier having more control over Iranian economy and buyers of Iranian goods.

If this plan continues successfully, Iran will be cornered economically and there may be a strategic desire for Iranian system to start a conflict that jeopardizes the flow of oil and pushes the price of oil upward.  Two major gains from a war for Iran would be the diversion of focus to foreign threat and war along with better price for oil to fund government expenditures. The price that Iran pays for the war may seem acceptable to those who view this strategy as injecting more life to a broken system. Gaining more time may be the ultimate strategy of war and uncertainty.

Currently the plan is to shrink the circles of command and absolute control of flow of information. By tightening the information flow, cancelling NGOs, and expanding the umbrella of government control in all levels of society including “Hozeh elmiyeh” and its clergies, the system has been semi successful in disrupting communications other than those inside the system.  Close monitoring of any possible leaders who may form an underground movement, who were a part of the larger Islamic Republic by capturing, intimidating, or threatening has put the “new” system in place with more control over the masses.

The result is anyone’s guess but putting history as a guide line, Iranian system may survive well beyond its useful life. In historical context, Iran today is somehow similar to the early 1900’s where constitutional revolution failed by transformation of power to Reza Shah the first. Then the Majlis became the voice of the government rather than the constituents.

However there is a difference and that’s time and experiences of society that may play for different results from the current developments. I still believe that promoting normalization of diplomacy and lifting the sanctions plays for the overall benefit of Iranian people. We are at a dangerous point in the Iranian history where we can become ideologically similar to USSR and domestically promote despotic laws to make Iran more like a developed version of North Korea, where the information and movements are monitored by the state. On the other hand, Iran can take the Chinese model, where the economy and development will yield a more open society and perhaps democracy in the long run. Other than that, no system that will inherit this situation would allow sharing of power as lack of social experience with democracy is somewhat similar to Russia today. 

Urgent decision needed NOW to

Protest against IRR/IRI when he is very weak economically with the friction inside the regime.   

EXACTLY

Iran's politics is complicated. It is very well possible IRI last longer if there is a war.

However, Iranians today are far more politically open minded than 30 years ago there maybe some distrubance from inside too.